future of television and "seven days in may"
TRANSCRIPT
NAB Broadcast Leadership Training Program
June 18, 2016
Presentation Outline
• Cord Cutting and Return of OTA Viewing• ATSC 3.0: New Platform, New Services• Next Gen TV Revenue Models• Steps Towards Advanced Alerting• A New Technology Agenda
2
Technology
PolicyBusiness
Our Niche:Techno-Political Strategy
Who We Are
Fiona James and John Lawson
3
4
AWARN Alliance Key Signatory
5
Americans Return to TV Antennas
6
Role of Over-the-Air (OTA) Broadcasting
Trends defy conventional wisdom that OTA television is dying
Cord cutting is growing, led by OTA + broadband
The combined cable, satellite, and telco sectors lost more than 1 million video customers in 2015
The 2015 decline was more than 4x the 2014 decline and marked the third consecutive annual decline (SNL Kagan)
14.7% of US TV household’s (HH)22.5% increase from 2011
22% of African-American HH 83% increase from 2010
25% of Latino HH 23% increase from 2010
(GfK’s Home Technology Monitor 2013 & 2015)
7
‘The big growth in over-the-air watching is coming from homes with broadband. Seems like the combination of free-to-air and Netflix is resonating for an increasing number of US consumers.’ – nScreenMedia, 05/2015
8
Next Generation Television: New Platform, New Services
9
ATSC 3.0: Next Generation OTA Television
11
Visually stunning pictures on large-screen televisions with superior reception Access to unlimited viewing of local and national educational and children’s programming via
indoor, mobile, and handheld devices Multiple consumer-friendly features, such as interactivity and personalized audio Integration of broadcast programming with other Internet Protocol (‘IP’)/broadband services Enhanced opportunities for essential public services, including education and public safety Datacasting that will offer a new broadband data pipe into homes Localized, geo-targeted, accessible programming
Source: ATSC 3.0 Petition for Rulemaking to the FCC – signed by AMERICA’S PUBLIC TELEVISION STATIONS; AWARN ALLIANCE; CONSUMER TECHNOLOGY ASSOCIATION; NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BROADCASTERS
Single Frequency Network: Denser Coverage Ups the Return
Source: DARBS
SFN combines the ’the big stick’ of TV broadcasting with the ability to reach urban canyons and geo-target services.SFN retransmits/boosts the same signal within the contour, filling in areas of weak signal.
Source: Huffington Post
‘Cellularization’ of Broadcasting
12
ATSC 3.0 = All-IP
ATSC 3.0: Commencing February 2017
14
ATSC Countries
15
Retain Spectrum and Innovate:The Financial Upside
16
Pearl Cost and Revenue Study
• ISP Traffic to OTA• Mobile Traffic to OTA
• Subscription Services Capability (e.g. be your own MVPD, radio streaming, etc.)
• Automotive Connectivity
• Targeted Advertising (Demographic & Zoned)
• Programmatic ad sales• Interactive Advertising
• Ultra HD + HDR to enhance viewer experience
• Increase viewership & ad inventory through additional multi-channel capacity and programming
Core Business Enhancements
Advanced Advertising
Wholesaling Data Capacity
New Business Lines &
Ancillary Services
ATSC 3.0 Revenue
17
Revenue Summary
Upside: FTI broke out the upside into two tranches: 1) with ATSC 3.0 upgrade only and 2) with SFN deployment .
With ATSC 3.0 Upgrade: Incremental annual revenues that range up to $12.2B1
• Targeted TV Advertising ($2.0 to $4.5B)• OTA Viewership Upside2 ($0.7 to $2.7B)• Datacasting (Up to $2.9B)• D2 Channels ($1.2 to $1.7B)• Radio ($1.0 to $2.1B)
With SFN Deployment: Incremental annual Revenues that range up to $7.4B• Mobile Video ($3.1 to $4.7B)• OTT/MVPD ($0.3 to $2.7B)
18
Payback Period 1.58 Years
Payback Period 5.38 Years
Source: Pearl TV/FTI
Market Driven ConsumerTransition
ATSC 3.0 ‘gateway’ devices receive broadcast programming indoors, combine it with broadband to form a hybrid network, and retransmit the combined content via Wi-Fi throughout the home.
Source: ATSC 3.0 Consumer Experience, NAB Show 2016
20
Market Transition to ATSC 3.0Public Private Partnerships
Revenue potential for ‘lighthouse’ station
Coordinate market transition to ATSC 3.0 with commercial broadcasters
Plan for shared SFN infrastructure and possible spectrum exchanges for mobile video services
Explore new ventures or leasing to generate revenue for non-commercial mission
On-going leasing potential for VHF mobile carriage on UHF station
Total transition predicted to complete in 7 – 10 years
Advanced Alerting:Rethinking a Familiar Service
21
Broadcasters and Civil Defense
22
Crisis!
24
Cold War Angst
25
11
9/11 and Katrina
31
Digital EAS: Senate Hearing 2005
32
IPAWS:
33
Not This! FEMA department that spearheads public alerting
Integrated Public Alert and Warning System
Steps Toward Advanced Alerting
• IPAWS – Executive Order• WARN Act – Wireless Emergency Alerts
– PBS diversity pathway– Back up power to “harden” PTV stations
• Digital EAS – APTS-FEMA collaboration• Mobile EAS – Federal support but MDTV stalled in marketplace• Renewed urgency in Congress, White House, FCC, FEMA, NWS
34
Current FCC Proceedings• Public Notice: Ways To Facilitate Earthquake-related Emergency Alerts - PS Docket
No. 16-32
• NPRM: Amendment Of Part 11 Of The Commission’s Rules Regarding The Emergency Alert System & Wireless Emergency Alerts - PS Docket No. 15-94
• Public Notice: Joint Petition For Rulemaking Of America’s Public Television Stations, The AWARN Alliance, The Consumer Technology Association, And The National Association Of Broadcasters Seeking To Authorize Permissive Use Of The “Next Generation TV” Broadcast Television Standard - GN Docket No. 16-142
• Order: Improving Wireless Emergency Alerts And Community-initiated Alerting - PS Docket No. 15-91 Adopted Nov 2015
• Proposed NPRM: FCC Chairman Proposal To Unlock The Set-top Box: Creating Choice & Innovation
35
White House Earthquake Resilience Summit
36
The FCC shall submit a report to Congress within 9 months of enactment of this act detailing all regulatory and statutory changes that would be necessary to ensure that earthquake-related emergency alerts using IPAWS and other associated alerting systems can be delivered to and received by the public in fewer than 3 seconds.
— House report language with the FY 2016 Omnibus Appropriations Bill
Shake Alert and a New Federal Commitment
37
Not Just the West Coast
A series of earthquakes hit the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky, in December 1811 to February 1812. These earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement…The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2–3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake, and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake.
– U.S. Geologic Survey
38
What Problem Are We Trying to Solve?
Cellular Limitations and Fragility
40
EAS: Hacking Vulnerability
41
42
• AWARN can deliver geo-targeted, rich media content– Video, storm tracks, plume models, evacuation routes, flood maps,
earthquake early warnings, and AMBER Alerts– Multilingual and accessible
• Reaching millions of consumer devices simultaneously – fixed, mobile, handheld – indoors or out
• Functions even when cell networks overload or the grid goes down• Can “wake up” devices
A New Technology Agenda
• Harmonize channel repack with ATSC 3.0 conversion
– Use $1.75 billion, 39 month window to upgrade to Next-Gen TV infrastructure
• Plan market-based transition strategies with other broadcasters
• Prepare for ATSC 3.0 next-generation business models
• Embrace next-generation public services, such as AWARN
44
ATSC 3.0 = All-IP
NAB Broadcast Leadership Training Program
June 18, 2016