future of spectrum management - presentation by dean bubley, brussels june 2015
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Spectrum Management
Avoiding a service monoculture
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
June 2015
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
Tech/telecom analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
Forecasting & anti-forecasting
Consultant & advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
Reports on Mobile Broadband, WebRTC etc
Not a day-to-day spectrum specialist
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015
Regulation is good at dealing with….
Standalone services
Well-defined products
Stable standards
National / regional
Service providers
Homogeneous
Similar models
Few in number
Commercial / Govt
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Regulation is bad at dealing with….
Generalised capabilities
Fluid products/features
No/changing standards
Non-geographic
Capability providers
Diverse stakeholders
Non-service models
Many players
New motivations
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FREE!
Cloud-
based
Mashups
P2P & Crowd-
sourced
X-as-a-
Feature
Distributed
Different domains, similar challenges
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Regulated, predictable,
important, inflexible
tax/fee-generating
Services
Un/light-regulated,
unpredictable,
innovative, disruptive
Capabilities
Telecom Services
Telcos: Voice
telephony & SMS
Internet Capabilities
“OTTs”, apps, social.
Dev & web community
Spectrum for Services
Mobile Broadband
Broadcast & Satellite
Spectrum for Capabilities
WiFi, short-range, PMSE,
IoT, private cellular, govt
Diversity vs. Monoculture
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Efficient & Productive Diversity & Future Optionality
Not everything wireless is a subscription model
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AmenitySubscription
service
Owned
outright
Peer-to-peer
Sponsored Transactional Also: Wireless-as-
a-feature
SPs are not the only wireless stakeholders
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User
Mobile operator
Venues Fixed/cable
Things
OS / OEMEnterprises
Broadcasters
Internet
Automotive City Brand Developers
Mobile broadband forecasts over-cooked?
Much growth driven by new (high-end) users & devices
IoT forecasts attempt to create self-fulfilling prophecies
Assume “service” & IMT-type “operator” model is optimal & ubiquitous
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0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Subscriber numbers
Data per subscriber
Smartphone 3G/4G data traffic growth
Source: Ericsson, Disruptive Analysis
Dominated by
subs growth
Unrealistic view of
usage growth in
prepay-dominated
market?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Postpaid
Prepaid
Mobile data subs, year-end, m
Source: Disruptive Analysis Mobile Broadband report
Mostly fixed
monthly quotas
Incentivised to
use less data?
The vision for 5G…
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Ultra-fast mobile
broadband
Critical & low
latency
Super-dense
IoT
• All-embracing
• Many use-cases
• Strong arguments for
more spectrum, but…
• Unintended
consequences?
• Pre-defines model &
stakeholders?
• Extends oligopolies to
adjacent mkts?
• WiFi offload / LTE-U /
LAA as example?
Conclusion: The next 10 years
Mobile Broadband “service” model a huge success…
… but not the only way forward
Innovation comes from diversity, not monoculture
Spectrum regulation decoupled from downstream innovators
2nd-order stakeholder groups proliferating for wireless
Risk of unfair competition between models not just companies
Beware of assumptions & unintended consequences
Spectrum Mgmt 2025 must be more than just “services”
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Dean Bubley
www.disruptive-analysis.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015June 2015