future of renewable energy the...

Future of Renewable Energy

Gary CalabreseVice President, Science & TechnologyDirector, Photovoltaic TechnologiesCorning Incorporated

The World

Symposium on the Global Energy FutureWashington University in St. LouisOctober 1st 2010

2© Corning Incorporated 2010

The global challenge

• Heating up the planet• Burning away our fossil fuels

and chemical feedstock

• Slow or stop heating up the planet• Preserve fossil fuels for making drugs,

plastics, semiconductor chips, paints, cars, planes, boats, iPads and just about everything we touch

Today15 TW Demand

205030+ TW Demand

Source: A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010). IEA estimates for Solar, Biomass and Hydroelectric are 2x-4x these numbers. Lewis & Nocera estimates in PNAS Perspective, 2006 are similar to those above except for Solar, which they estimate at 800 TW practical.


A game the whole world must play

=


Key messages

• The world must move to renewable energy sources, only question is how fast

• The challenge is big• The global transition will be similar to wood fossil fuels:

slow, but profound• We will likely have a patchwork of technologies just as we do

today• Solar will be a major player• The “call to action” is clear: innovate


Renewable sources have enough power

Biomass9 TW

Wind20 TW

Hydro1.6 TW

Geothermal3.8 TW

Estimated practically available power

Source: A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010). IEA estimates for Solar, Biomass and Hydroelectric are 2x-4x these numbers. Lewis & Nocera estimates in PNAS Perspective, 2006 are similar to those above except for Solar, which they estimate at 800 TW practical.

2010WorldDemand15 TW

Solar>50 TW


World marketed energy use by fuel type, 1990-2035

0

50

100

150

200

250

Year

Qua

drill

ion

Btu

But adoption will take a long time

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) - International Energy Outlook 2010, July 2010

Oil

CoalNatural gas

Renewables

Nuclear

History Projections

1990 2007 2035202520152000


Energy problem = water problem…

Source: DOE, AWEA and A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010)

Hydroelectric4.5 gal

Geothermal1.4 gal

SolarThermal

1 gal

Coal0.5 gal

Nat. Gas0.2 gal

Oil0.4 gal

Nuclear0.7 gal

PV & Wind0 gal

Biomass95 gal

Water Consumption, gallons/kW-hr


… and CO2 emission problem …

Sources: *de Wild‐Scholten, M., presented at CrystalClear Final Event in Munich on May 26, 2009. **de Wild‐Scholten, M., ‘Solar as an environmental product: Thin‐film modules – production processes and their environmental assessment,’ presented at the Thin Film Industry Forum, Berlin, April, 2009. Both PV technologies use insolation of 1700 kWh/m2. All other data from ExternE project, 2003; Kim and Dale, 2005; Fthenakis and Kim, 2006: Fthenakis and Alsema, 2006; Fthenakis and Kim, in press. First Solar

Car

bon

foot

prin

t(g

CO

2-eq

/kW

h)


…and land use problem

Source: Spitzley et al, U. Mich. Ctr. For Sustainable Systems (2004); Electricity from Renewable Resources, NAS 2010; DOE and A. Cho, Science 329, 786-787 (2010)

Biomass 675,000 acres

Wind 132,000 acres

Land needed to power San Jose, California

San Jose, CA115,000 acres

Solar 19,000 acresNuclear 11,000 acres

Coal 9,500 acresHydroelectric 3,300 acresNatural Gas 800 acres


A small area can supply all our needs

Source: NREL

Light reaching the ground in 1 hour is enough to power the world for 1 year

Area needed to supply all U.S. electricity @ 10%

efficiency


One Winner? Unlikely

Different applications need different batteries


Why solar?

• Huge practical potential

• Land use reasonable

• Not a “water hog”

• Much “innovation headroom” for lowering cost

• Has strong “emotional” public support


Governments have put PV on a fast track

Feed-in-tariff driving growth in Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, France, China and Canada

14.5 F

PV

Dem

and,

GW

Germany

USJapanSpain

ROW

5.4

2.91.71.5

7.0


• Direct costs of solar components and systems

• Intermittency and geographic variability of sunshine creates added cost to store and distribute solar power

PV has 3 simple priorities going forward: 1. Cost, 2. Cost, and 3. Cost

Panel manufacturingCosts

Balance of systems (BOS) components and installation costs

Maintenance & End-of-life replacement costs

+ +


Three key approaches for PV

Concentrator(~3%)

Thin Film(~19%)

Lower costby reducing

semiconductorcontent

Silicon(~78%)

front

back

Semiconductor


$2

$3

$4

$6

$8

$20

0.001 0.01 0.1

Cumulative Production in Gigawatt (GWp)

Mod

ule

Pric

es ($

/Wat

t p)

$1/Wp at ~20 GWp

$1/Wp at >100 GWp

Thin film

Polysilicon shortage

Polysilicon price drop

Crystalline Silicon

Sources: EPIA, EIA, NREL, First Solar, Photovoltaics World and Corning analysis

Module Prices vs. Cumulative Production

PV is on a “Moore’s Law” type learning curve for cost


Low cost has enabled thin film PV to grow fastP

V D

eman

d G

W

CrystallineSilicon

Thin Film

TF % 0 5% ~10% ~20% ~20%

CrystallineSilicon

Thin Film


Conversion efficiency has been the big game

Source:NREL

First Solar took 20% ofPV Market in 5 yrs with this technology

Many betting on this as long- term winner as manufacturing costs come down

Underdog comingon strong!


Key messages

• The world must move to renewable energy sources, only question is how fast

• The challenge is big• The global transition will be similar to wood fossil fuels:

slow, but profound• We will likely have a patchwork of technologies just as we do

today• Solar will be a major player• The “call to action” is clear: innovate


A bit about Corning innovations

Processes for mass producing the television bulb

19471879

Glass envelope for Thomas Edison’s light bulb

1915

Heat-resistant Pyrex® glass

First low-loss optical fiber

1970 1984

AMLCD glass for TVs, notebook computers & monitors

1972

Dow Corning silicones

1934

Glass ceramics

1952 2006

Specialty glass for NASA space missions

Fusion drawprocess

1960

Ceramic substrates for automotive catalytic converters


Innovation: a thin specialty glass for three top thin-film PV technologies to boost absolute efficiency by 2% or more

Technology Value

Improved efficiency = more watts/panel

Lower mfg cost

CdTeSuperstrate

• Thin films can be grown at higher temperatures to get higher efficiency cells

• Fewer impurities from the glass

• Thinner glass can be run faster through the manufacturing line

CIGSSubstrate

• Thin films can be grown at higher temperatures to get higher efficiency cells

• Optimized sodium delivery to semiconductor

• Controlled impurities from substrate

• Thinner glass can be run faster through the manufacturing line

Si Tandem Superstrate

• Light trapping increases photon absorption by silicon layers

• Thinner µc-Si layer means shorter manufacturing process and less equipment

µc-Si

a-Sireflector

back TCOmetal

Window Glass

Specialty glassMfg Film Growth

Mfg Film Growth

Window Glass

Specialty glass

Mfg Film Growth

Specialty glass

Window Glass


+2% allows module makers to increase wattage of their “lights”, make more money, and accelerate growth

Window glass Corning glass Gain

10% 12% 2%pts+20%

72 W 86 W 14 W+20%

Today’s module Tomorrow’s HE module


+2% is BIG over the life of a PV power plant

World’s Largest PV PlantOlmedilla PV Park, Spain

60 MWp rating

Production: 85 GW-hr/year

+2%Efficiency

(absolute)

Production: 102 GW-hr/year

72 MWp

Extra 17 GW-hr/year worth $77 million over 25 years(17 GW x $0.18 / kWh x 25 years)


Thin is reliable: 0.7 mm specialty glass passes the hail impact test…

• 0.7mm laminated to 3.2mm

• 25 mm diameter ice ball

• 23 m/sec velocity

Hail impact testing at Corning R&D Center(25 - 44 mm ice ball testing capability)


…and can take 115 mph winds

1300 x 1100 mm modules• 1.1 mm thin glass • EVA• 3.2 mm tempered SLG• Adhesive rail supports

1200 x 600 mm modules• 0.7 mm thin glass• EVA• 3.2 mm tempered SLG• Clip supports

Exposures

• 184 km/h peak (115 mph)

• 130 km/h mean (81 mph)

• Upwind & downwind


Light trapping glass has delivered world-record 11.9% efficiency for silicon tandem thin film cells


Summary• World must move to renewable energy sources

• Renewables can generate enough power to meet our needs

• PV has tremendous potential because there is still much room for innovation to get costs down much further

• Innovation in glass substrates has enabled the LCD HDTV revolution of the past decade, and will do the same for PV in the next

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