future of mobility: reinvention of the car
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Mobility: Reinvention of the Car
Introducing the Trends & Disruptive Business
Models Revolutionising Urban Mobility
Finpro ITS and MaaS Seminar, May 2016
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Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage We are moving very quickly from public and private transport being separate businesses, to a more Integrated
Multi Modal Mobility Network, due to changing demographics, preferences, and technology
Converging Trends will lead to a Paradigm Shift
from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage
Transport =
Private Vehicle
Freedom
Convenience
Status – Progress
No Real Alternative
Transport =
Door-to-door
Mobility
Door-to-door
Mobility
New Vehicles: BRT,
EV, High Speed Rail
New Business
Models: Car
Sharing/Pooling
Urban Planning:
Reallocation of
Space
Integrated Mobility:
New technology
enabled multi modal
integration
Gen Y
Connectivity
Population
Growth
Urbanization
Social
Responsibility
Air
Quality
Pollution
Congestion
Globalization
Natural
Resources
3
Integrated Mobility: A User-Centric Approach to Mobility-as-a-Service Technology enabled, any device delivery of real-time, door-to-door, multi-modal travel encompassing pre-trip, in-
trip and post-trip services bringing Convenience, Time & Cost Savings to the Mobility User
DEMAND RESPONSIVE
TRANSPORT (TAXI, BRT)
CONNECTED
LIVING
(including car)
INTERCITY
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
CAR RENTAL &
LEASING
CAR RENTAL
CAR SHARING &
POOLING
INTRACITY
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
PHYD
INSURANCE
DYNAMIC
PARKING
CONCIERGE
SERVICES
ENERGY
MANAGEMENT
MICRO-
MOBILITY
SOLUTIONS
TRAIN/FLIGHT
INTEGRATION
APPS, JOURNEY
PLANNING,
BIG DATA
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Mega Trends Leading to a Convergence in Mobility New Business Models will continue to grow as part of the convergence towards Electric, Connected,
Shared, and eventually Autonomous Mobility
Electric Mega Trends
Influence on
Drivetrain
Autonomous Influence of Self-
Driving Features
on Vehicle
Interior / Exterior
Connectivity In Vehicle,
Infrastructure,
Grid
Mobility Convergence
Exciting New
Business Models
• Shared Mobility
• Carsharing
• Ridesharing
• Ride hailing / taxis
• Parking
• Bikesharing
• Dynamic minibuses
• Integrated Mobility
Enabling Layers
• Data Security
• Safety
• “Real-Time” Maps,
Images & interpretation
• L1-5 Automation
5
Future of Mobility Headline Discussions
The last car you'll ever buy may already be in your driveway (Autoblog)
“Most Millennials Won't Own A Car In 5 Years” -Lyft Co-Founder John Zimmer (July 2015)
“There’s a lot of people that want access to a car, but they don’t want to buy one”
-Moovel CFO Marcus Spickermann
“We are moving from Car enabled, to car related, and car independent premium mobility
services” BMW Mobility Services
“If we start losing powertrain we will be unable to hang on to any proprietary knowledge or
business control” -Sergio Marchionne, CEO FCA
“We took the commodity part of the business and let others make the innovation'
Scott Keogh” -Audi Americas President
“Staggered to see how much capital is tied up in car manufacturing”
Andrew Brenner, Android Auto
GM plans $5.5B in cost cuts to help finance new mobility (Oct 2015)… GM is investing $500m
in Lyft to develop self-driving cars; GM raids what’s left of Sidecar to support Lyft (Jan 2016)
“It's not for others to disrupt us, it's for us to disrupt ourselves” – Ford CEO Mark Fields
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Market Potential in Sharing Economy The Sharing Economy is projected to grow from $15bn to $335bn by 2025*
Global Market
for Sharing Economy 25.0
9.3
8.4
8.0
4.8
Airbnb
Wyndam Hotel
Hyatt
Intercontinental
Extended Stay
AirBnB is bigger than Hyatt
Uber is bigger
than Hertz and Car Companies
Valuation, 2014, $ billion
$15
billion $335 billion CAGR = 30%
2013 2025
Gro
wth
ra
tes
*) Source: Forbes & PWC
+ 63% Money Lending
+ 37% Staffing
+ 31% Accommodation
+ 23% Car Sharing
+ 17% Music Streaming
+ 5% Equipment rental
12.4
6.3
12.9
10.4
Uber
Hertz
Avis
Fiat
Mitsibushi Valuation, 2014, $ billion
62.5
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The world’s
largest taxi
company, owns
no vehicles
The world’s most
popular media
owner, creates no
content
The world’s most
valuable retailer,
has no inventory
The world’s largest
accommodation
provider, owns no
real estate
What could this mean for Mobility?
The world’s largest rail company, owns no trains
The world largest parking company, owns no parking
The world largest mobility company, owns no asset
The world largest car company, manufacturers no vehicles
. . .
Source: Tom Goodwin (Tech Crunch)
The Growing Trend of Asset Light Business Models Started in accommodation, content and retail – aggregators, integrators and third parties will revolutionise
mobility without owning or operating the assets
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Wheels when you want them more social less media
Everyone’s private driver Your ride, On Demand
your friend with a car a ride whenever you need one
Parkatmyhouse.com the online parking marketplace
Relayrides: make money renting your car Rent the car – own the adventure
the best way from A to B moovel brings you everywhere
All transportation options, one app Search, discover, explore
Moving your way Simply. Always. Everywhere.
OurCar. YourCar. WeCar ready, set, freedom
find parking near…. parking made easy
Premium carsharing with BMW find it drive it drop it
Ideas. Focus. Solutions Innovating Fleet since 1965
Mobility Messaging – How do the key players position? In this increasingly competitive market – branding is key to understanding and adoption of new mobility
business models, reflected by the continuous dynamic nature of their messaging
Before After
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The rise of Uber and more is yet to come… Disruptors such as Tesla and Uber are evolving the automotive landscape. Why? The vision is much
wider than the product/service that they operate in now – valuation confirms this
Telco
Navigation
ehail
Logistics
Fleet
Insurance
Payment
Finance
Lifestyle
OEMs
DATA Monetization AUTOMATION
Uber Uber
Uber – super
premium
Uber advertising –
geomarketing
Uber Public
Transport –
Bus, Coach,
Train
Autonomous
Fleet
Extension of
transportation value
chain
???
IPO Intelligent
Mobility
Uber Alternate –
bikes,
motorbikes
Influx of funding will spur
hyper growth
Shift from asset light to
asset heavy
Control cities' transportation
network.
Intelligent
infrastructure –
V2V V2X
Integrated
mobility
solutions
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Key Trends & Outlook for the Mobility Market With considerable business model innovation, investment, and public sector support, the mobility ecosystem is
set to become more integrated with existing transit networks
Integrated Mobility-as-a-
service
Increasing peer to
peer (for parking,
cars, rides, taxis)
Investment &
Partnerships from
OEMs
Dynamic Pricing
Increased Tenders
from Cities & Public
Support
Parking Reservation,
valet/automated
parking
“Car on Demand”
analytics & Big Data
Automated Driving
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Intelligent Mobility 2015 Video (…join us in London June 28/29th)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HakdWTPAUvQ
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The Emerging Urban Mobility Landscape Many innovations and mobility services are blurring the lines between public transport and private car
ownership, creating several opportunities for new shared mobility services
Distance Travelled
Co
st &
Co
nve
nie
nce
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Car Rental
Micro-mobility
eHailing Taxi (On-Demand)
Bikesharing
Carpooling (Fixed)
P2P Carsharing
Integrated Mobility: Plan, Book, Pay
Dynamic Shuttle (On-Demand)
• Integrated Mobility Offers vast potential to offer multiple modes and services, and segment customer types using the same platform.
• An ecosystem of partnerships is required to deliver this in multiple cities/countries
Parking Financial Services
Round Trip Carsharing
One Way Carsharing
Public Transit
Carpooling (Dynamic.Corporate)
Supporting Services
Private Car
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From Shared to Business Mobility in Europe New Shared Mobility models are increasingly becoming corporate, creating new use cases &
partnership potential. This is creating high growth opportunities for OEMs and commercial fleet sectors
Bike Sharing Taxi Applications Smart Parking
Carpooling / Ridesharing Car Club Models
Implications to Mobility
• Increased threat from new segments
• Agility & scalability - risk of falling behind
• Heavy technology use & increasing platforms (Asset Light)
• Cross sector partnerships & aggregation
• Increased utilisation & business potential
Actions from the Industry
• Integration of P2P, B2B, B2C to cross sell
• Partnerships for value added services
• Short term sharing/rental merging with leasing business models
• Continued investments & consolidation
€2.7bn Revenues
23m Members
1m Taxi / FHVs
139k Bikes, 430 Cities
Europe Stats
>5m Members Combined
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Frost & Sullivan’s Vision for the Future of Corporate Mobility New Mobility Business Models & digitalisation are set to innovate and disrupt the B2B World
Integrated Multi Modal
Platforms (for
business)
Changing working
locations/patterns
change mobility
requirements
Multiple sectors
increasing footprint –
OEMs, Leasing, Rental
Rise of Internet
Aggregators
(smartphone enabled)
Growth of “sharing”
reducing need to own /
sole use (e.g. company
car)
Mobility Auditing &
Mobility Budgets
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Shaping Society
Building Ecosystem
1st Commercial Operators
Case Study: Helsinki Mobility-As-A-Service (MAAS) Concept
Integration of public and private forms of mobility under the same platform will give rise to a new type of mobility business model – a monthly subscription for Mobility
Partners
3 Phases in Enabling MAAS
Finland’s MAAS integrates all forms of shared and public transport in a single payment network could essentially render private cars obsolete; the key differentiator will be commercial agreements, and user experience
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Le
ve
l 4
Le
ve
l 3
L
eve
l 2
Tesla
Le
ve
l 5
2030 2025 2020 2016
Mercedes Audi
Cadillac
Volvo
Nissan
Ford
Tesla
Tesla
Audi
Tesla
GM
Apple*
Mercedes
BMW
Volvo
Volvo
Ford
GM
Hyundai
Hyundai
Nissan
Ford
GM JLR
VW
VW
Hyundai
VW
JLR
Commercialization of Level 2
Commercialization of Level 4
Faraday
Future
Early Adopter Curve
Zone of Disruption
Audi
BMW
BMW
Autonomous Driving Market: Introduction to Market Roadmap, Global, 2016–2030
Mercedes
Autonomous Driving: Introduction to Market Roadmap Approximately 30–40 vehicles (from various OEMs) featuring LIDAR for active safety and automated capabilities
(standard or optional) will enter the market in the next 10 years; E and F segments will comprise the majority.
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Current Motor Insurance Model Future Motor Insurance
Model
Assess Risk
Individual’s driving behaviour
is given higher weight
Vehicle owner pays premium
based on the risk factors
Liability is on the insured, as
stated in the policy clause
System capabilities to be
key factors
OEMs and other
stakeholders to pay
premium*
Liability to be primarily on
vehicle manufacturer
*Vehicle owner pays premium to cover some excesses such as theft, fire, and vandalism.
>80% <20%
Liability
Collect Premium
Assess Risk
Liability
Collect Premium
Dri
ve
r-c
en
tric
eva
lua
tio
n
Considers value-added
features such as increased
comfort and option to take
manual control
Risk Assessment Approaches
3. System-centric evaluation
Type of vehicle such as pods
and group rapid transit
vehicles to be considered
2. Product-centric evaluation
Evaluated for critical
parameters such as crash
prevention, crash worthiness,
and algorithm
1. Brand-centric evaluation
Or
Or
Motor Insurance Business Model With the driver no longer responsible for controlling the vehicle, driver-related parameters lose their weight;
thus, the onus of paying premiums is likely to shift from the vehicle owner to the OEM.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Changing Role of Public Sector in Mobility As consumer habits change and technology allows innovative services, the role of the public sector is also
adapting and partnering to enable, facilitate, or restrict some of the emerging mobility business models
New Regulations for
Mobility services
Automated Driving
Carsharing Tenders,
Operations, SLA’s
Flexible scheduling &
on-demand transit
Bikesharing Tenders
Parking Supply &
Monetisation Open Data
Integrated Mobility-
As-A-Service
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Corporate
Car-Sharing
Bike Sharing
Parking
Car Rental
Integrated
Mobility
E-Mobility
Micro-mobility
Public Transport
Car Sharing
Ridesharing
Taxi Services
New Mobility Business Models & Partnerships Enable First/Last Mile In both B2C and B2B environments customers are demanding intuitive services; many players investing
significantly to deliver a seamless proposition & user experience for Integrated Mobility
Travel
Management
Companies
OEMs
Car Rental
Companies
Public
Transport
Operators
Fleet &
Leasing
Companies
Software
Platform
Providers
Integrated
Solution
Providers
Insurance
Providers
Integrated
Mobility
What is needed for mobility solutions to become “mainstream”?
Policy, Investment & Behaviour Change
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Evolution of OEMs Mobility Services Car companies are evolving from the business of manufacturing & selling just cars, to providing related
services, and multi-modal mobility solutions to target new customers, and future proof their business
Evo
luti
on
& E
xpan
sio
n o
f O
EM S
erv
ice
s
Car Independent
Car Ownership
Car Services
Integrated Mobility: Journey Planning,
Booking & Payment
City Planners & Lifestyle
Energy creation & storage
Finance Maintenance Connected Services
Carsharing Parking & Charging
Ride-sharing
Taxi & Limousine
Automated Driving
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Conclusions & Outlook for Mobility If we shift from ownership to access of mobility services, what business models, regulation, and partnerships
are required, and how will the value chain evolve?
Mobility is becoming far more connected, asset light, and integrated – Customer
expectations are shifting from ownership to tech-enabled mobility
The lines between B2B, B2C and P2P, and public/private transport are
blurring and creating space for new players & services
What is needed for mobility services to become mainstream? A
combination of Policy, Investment, and Behaviour Change
The pace of change is accelerating – technology providers are crucial to
mobility services and can shape the evolution of MaaS
Is Finland ready to adopt Mobility-as-a-Service instead of private vehicle
ownership? Technology enables the shift from ownership to access & usage
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Future of Mobility Video
Martyn Briggs Industry Principal, Mobility,
Direct: (+44) 2079157830
Mobile: +44 (0) 753 428 2371
Join our discussions on LinkedIn and connect
with us on @FS_automotive @BriggsMartyn
Watch our latest Video on the Future
of Mobility, filmed live at Frost &
Sullivan’s Annual Mobility Workshop
Thank You & Keep in Touch!
#IntelligentMobility
Join us in London, June 2016!