future of medicine
DESCRIPTION
Prognosis for Healthcare:A presentation on the Future of MedicineTRANSCRIPT
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Prognosis for Healthcare: The Future of Medicine
Bruce M. Cohen, M.D., Ph.D.
Director, Frazier Research Institute, McLean HospitalPresident and Psychiatrist in Chief Emeritus, McLean Hospital
Robertson-Steele Professor of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School
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Mechanix IllustratedNov, 1968
Vehicular travel between the domed, evenly climatized cities of 2008 is controlled by the national traffic computer, which guarantees perfect safety even at speeds of 250mph.
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Lessons From The Past
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?
1500 BC 1940s
2009------You Are HereStardate 4351.7
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What Changes Can We Expect in Medicine?
Looking Forward
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Disease and the Spread of DiseaseScience and Technology
Clinician Training and RolesInstitutions and Care Settings
All interacting and all influenced by wealth and its distribution
Drivers of Change in Medicine
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What Changes in Illness Can We Expect?
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New infectious diseases crop up now and then throughout history
New toxic diseases can arise due to new manufacturing or environmental changes
Climate change and increased travel can lead to the spread of existing diseases to new populations
Disease Changes in Our Future
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The population is aging, and with that will come:
Increased prevalence of some illnesses-
Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases, Dementias, Cancers, Arthritis…
With increased costs
Also
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Can we take advantage of newadvances in science and technology
to discover better treatments for medical illnesses?
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Some Technologies for the Early 21st Century that Could Change the Future of Healthcare
Advanced Genetics/GenomicsMolecular, Cell and Systems Biology
Truly New DrugsNew Vaccines
Tissue Repair/Stem CellsImproved ProstheticsBetter Tissue Imaging
Computing/Information TechnologyMechanical/Nano Technology
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Two Examples:
Genetics and Stem Cells
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The Potential Contribution of Genetics
The risk of illness, the course of illness, and response to treatment are
all substantially determined by inherited factors.
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With the sequencing of the humangenome and the increasing power
of genetic analysis, the pace of discovery of risk genes for human
illness has accelerated.
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Once genes related to risk of illness are determined,they can be used
To help identify and study individuals at risk
To classify those who are ill according todifferent subtypes of illness
To study the function of genes related to illness in
Biochemical preparations, Cell culture, Animal models, and Human subjects
To define the mechanisms by which the gene predisposes to illness and, thereby, find targets for treatment
Including medication or changing the genes, themselves
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Beyond Treatment: Can We Achieve Prevention, Replacement and Repair?
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Some Developing Technologies For Gene, Cell, Tissue and Organ Repair
Gene Alteration
Nanomedicine
Organelle Replacement / Repair
Cell Replacement / Repair
Organ Replacement or Remodeling
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Cell Replacement
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The body has limited capacity to repair itself by growing new cells:
The skin, the liver, bone and blood cells and blood vessels grow
Brain, muscles, lungs, kidneys, etc. do not
Replacing Lost Cells
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We Can Provide NewCells to the Brain and Other Organs
These cells may directly replace lost cells
orThey may provide factors to limit or reverse cell loss
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Stem cells can grow to become all or most of the specialized cells of the body
There are several sources of stem cells for use in tissue repair
This includes stem cells obtained from each individual’s own body
Stem Cells
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Stem Cells, Given Intranasally, Can Enter the Brain
14 days post treatment7 days post treatment
Cataldo and Cohen, 2008
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Personalized medicine, based on individual genetics
Tissue Repair by stem cells or nano-devices
Better aging
Prevention of illness
Some Current Hot Topics in DevelopingMedical Technology
All are possible with enough time, effort and funding
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Treatments targeted at genetic differences of individual cancers
Stem cells to treat Type I (early onset, insulin dependent) diabetes mellitus
Areas for Likely Near-term Medical Success in Applying New Technologies
-survey of one physician scientist
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Testing Efficacy and Safety of New Devices and Treatments-What degree of certainty and speed to require for approval
(FDA)
Access to New Technology-How to assure availability without overuse
Electronic Medical Records-How to assure accuracy and privacy
Affordability-Who pays for development and use
Issues in Developing and Applying New Medical Technologies
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Is This the Key to the Future?
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Costs of Healthcare
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Annual US healthcare costs: $2.2 T, $7421/person, 16.2% GDP
(22% higher on average than other developed countries)
Over half is spent for care in the last six months of life
27% is spent on 1% of the population, much of it for emergency room care
75% of yearly increases is for new medications and technologies
30% is for unnecessary tests and procedures, in part related to malpractice concerns
-American College of Physicians, 2009 White Paper
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Paying for Healthcare
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Currently, a mixture of private, public and personal payments:
Private Health Insurance: 42%Public Payment*
Federal: 34%State: 13%
Out of Pocket: 12%
*(Includes Medicare: 19%And Medicaid: 15%)
Uninsured: 20% under age 65
Healthcare Payments USA: 2009
-Department of Health and Human Services, USA
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Hospital costs are 4X higher
Physician and Nurse salaries are 30-100% higher
Drug costs are 3X higher(Brand names cost more, generics less than elsewhere)
Administrative and regulatory costs are 6X higher(Private plan administrative costs are 2X those of Medicaid
and 4X those of Medicare)
USA vs. Other Developed Countries
-American College of Physicians, 2009 White Paper
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US health insurance is built of ad hoc pieces:
Private, largely through groups at work,
and
Public, through Medicare for older or disabled adults or
Medicaid for the poor
There are many other models for coverage, but in the current debate, they are receiving little temperate discussion.
Health Insurance Issues
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Should we have health coverage for all (beyond the ER)?
Who should decide what is covered and for how much?
Should payment be by service, person, group, illness episode, outcome?
What deductibles or co-payments are reasonable?
What maximums or catastrophic coverage are reasonable?
More Payment Issues
(And yes, you will pay for it, but you are already)
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The Future for Caregivers
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Are current numbers, roles and responsibilities of doctors, nurses and technicians the right ones?
Shouldn’t everyone have a primary generalist? (Specialists make 50-200% more than generalists)
Is there a way for doctors to spend adequate time with patients?
How broadly should doctors be trained? Should they know nutrition, exercise, holistic or alternative medicine?
Caregivers: Roles and Issues
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Settings of Care
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Partners HealthCare: a system of care including two academic medical centers, community hospitals and health centers, a physician network, specialty hospitals, and other health services.
MassachusettsGeneral Hospital
Brigham and Women’s/ Faulkner
Hospital
North Shore Medical Center:
Salem and Union Hospital
McLean Hospital
Newton-Wellesley Hospital
Spaulding Rehabilitation
Hospital; PartnersHome Care;
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“Providing the right care in the right place at the right time”
What mix and location of hospitals, clinics and doctors offices is best?(Convenience and special services must both be addressed. Currently,
ERs are overused and routine and preventive care are overlooked.)
What roles for email, websites and telemedicine?
Can we arrange better chronic care (home and clinic) and better end of life care (home and hospice)?
Who will decide the location and types of care?
Settings of Care: Issues and Opportunities
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Quality of care
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Over 100,000 in USA die each year from medical errors-IOM
The USA ranks #1 in effectiveness of care, but low on patient safety, patient centeredness and access to care-ACP
Most research on the effectiveness of treatment is funded by those with a product to sell: A drug, device, service or model of care
Consumer assessments and input are minimal
Consumer knowledge of options is poor
Quality of Care: Issues and Opportunities
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What Can You Do?
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Most of the debate and decision making will be driven by private/vested interests-Get involved
Inform yourself-Write and support politicians whose positions make sense to you
Support research on illness, treatment and quality of care
What You Can Do: Globally
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Support education on health, illness, and healthcare in the schools and community
Support healthy environments in the schools and workplaces
What You Can Do: Locally
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45% of adults have one or more chronic medical illness; one third will develop type
II diabetes
64% of the US population is overweight, 2-3 X the rate of other countries
Smoking leads to 462,000 unnecessary deaths and $180 B in additional health
costs per year
Illness is Personal: Risk can be Changed
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The risk of death or disability from many medical illnesses, including:
cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, lung diseases, cancer and infectious disorders
can be reduced by:
Good diet,Regular sleep and exercise,
Occasional medical check-ups,And following through with treatment
What You Can Do: Personally
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Thanks for caring and getting involved