Future of Lake Wingra Meeting

University of Wisconsin

May 9, 2007

Welcome!Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology

Overview

Oonsie Biggs, Center for Limnology

Scenarios for the future of Lake Wingra

9 May 2007

Future of Lake Wingra?

Why think about the future?

Lake Wingra is a community resource

FOLW is developing goals for the watershed in collaboration with the community

Future changes in the greater Madison area and beyond will impact our ability to meet the goals for Lake Wingra

TODAY

2035FOLW strategies

Zoo 955: Sketch future scenarios

FOLW: Develop goals & strategies

Scenario analysis

• One approach to thinking about the future

• Scenarios are not predictions!

• Scenarios are plausible stories that expand our understanding of what the future might bring

Scenarios approach

Scenarios can be qualitative and/or quantitative

Time

Today

Process

3 Feb FOLW goals

public meeting

7 FebSystems analysis

brainstorming session

2 MarchScenarios workshop with

invited stakeholders to develop draft scenario storylines

MarchSynthesis of scenario

workshop & drafting of 4 selected storylines

Early AprilIndividual feedback

interviews with stakeholders

Late AprilScenario revisions &

drafting of final report

9 MayPresentation of

scenarios to FOLW

Goals for Lake Wingra

Friends of Lake Wingra

Jim Lorman and Anne Forbes

Jim Lorman and Anne Forbes

Scope of the Project

Matt Van de Bogert, Center for Limnology

System Analysis Overview

Lake Wingra

Economic

Social

Political

Ecological

Overview of systems analysis workshop

• Goals included:

• Define the system, its components, and the connections between them

Overview of systems analysis workshop

• Goals included:

• Define the time horizon and frequency of projection

Overview of systems analysis workshop

• Goals included:

• Identify key inputs and drivers to the system

Other lakes: Mendota, Monona

Physical, chemical, biological characteristics: water clarity, bacteria, algae, nutrients, macrophytes, fish community, migratory birds, etc.

Shore and adjacent wetlands

Watershed

City of Madison

Lake Wingra

City Government

Businesses; investment;

growth

Land use: development,

infilling, sprawl, construction

Education Institutions: Edgewood, UW-Madison,

UW-Arboretum.

Infrastructure: roads, storm sewers, sanitary sewer, etc.

Hydrology Surface-water runoff, phosphorus, salt, etc; groundwater depletion,

recharge

recreation, resource use, ecosystem services

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People: individuals, households, families, taxpayers, voters

User groups: anglers, swimmers, boaters, young explorers, bikers, hikers, skiers

Organizations: neighborhoods, fishing or boating clubs, Friends of Lake Wingra, others

City of Madison…The Social-Ecological System

City of Madison

DANE COUNTY

STATE OF WISCONSIN

UNITED STATES

THE WORLD

External components, drivers, and inputs of the system

Key Uncertainties

-Invasive species

-Economy

-Human health

Uncontrollable

-U.S. economy

-National security

-Climate change

No Alternative

-Climate change

Climate change

Invasive species

Technological innovations

U.S. economyNational security

Transportation

L & W commission

State legislation

State economy

Human health; disease

State agencies (e.g., DNR)

Federal agencies (e.g., EPA) National environmental awareness & practices

Federal legislation

(From the system level)

Demographic changes

Current Condition of Lake Wingra

Matt Diebel, Center for Limnology

Lake Wingra in 2007

Lake Wingra Watershed

Odana Golf Course

Arboretum

Vilas Park

Westgate Mall

Edgewood Campus

Lake Wingra

Lake Wingra Watershed

Lake Wingra

Hydrology

Direct Precipitation

Surface Runoff

Groundwater Inflow

PollutantsSediment increase 500%

Phosphorus increase 1000%

Chloride increase 1500%

Poor Water Quality

•Frequent algae blooms

•Secchi depth 0.7 m

Native plant communities remain but are threatened by invasive species

Scenarios Overview

Amy Kamarainen, Center for Limnology

Big Green Brother Garden State

C-CLEARExotic Exchange

Big Green BrotherJennifer Schmitz, Center for Limnology

2010: City supports grassroots efforts with new tax incentives

2015: City and State support open space initiatives to the tune of $1 million

2022: “What was once viewed as an opportunity for grassroots initiatives is now seen as big

government,” reflects resident.

2029: Shorter winters and ice accidents lead to new safety regulations

2029: Madison experiences eighth consecutive summer of below average rainfall

2033: County permits extraction of water from the Yahara lakes

2035 – Lake Wingra goals eclipsed by top community priorities

2033 - City begins construction of multi-million dollar water park

Garden StateDavid Zaks

Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment

2012: Rain gardens and permeable blacktop used to recharge groundwater and

reduce sediment loads

2016: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology built on site formerly known as the Arboretum

2020: Carp-a-thon mobilizes disparate

community groups and effectively controls the

Common carp population

2022: Population growth leads to loss of dark sky certification

2030: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology stock high-protein fish strain in Lake Wingra

C-CLEARChris Uejio

Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment

Community Coalition for Lake Ecology and Recreation (C-

CLEAR)

2015: “Success breeds success”• New individuals &

organizations join Friends of Lake Wingra

• “Friends” generate & leverage more resources

• Pressure local government to improve water quality

2015-2025: “Gridlock”• Community change: Older, more culturally &

geographically diverse

• Violent conflict between anglers and fisher people

• C-CLEAR positively broadens access, outreach & education

2015-2025: “Gridlock” (cont.)

• Dane county population & power grows; gridlock over environmental policy ensues

• Geographically broader coalition organizes across watershed; Yahara-CLEAR

• Less effort focused locally on original goals

2025-2035: “Sustainable Organizing”

• Fracture: members leave & resume working locally

• Water quality steadily improved, but slower than members hoped

• Uncertainty over the coalition’s future

Exotic ExchangeBrian Weidel, Center for Limnology

BEFORE AFTER

2010… common carp 2010… common carp virtually eliminatedvirtually eliminated

Panfish Musky

2017…silver carp invade2017…silver carp invade

Panfish MuskyCarp

20222022

20332033

Silver Carp Virus

Discussion Questions

Matt Kornis, Center for Limnology

Do any scenarios seem particularly likely or unlikely?

Do any of the scenarios make you think differently about Lake Wingra’s future?

What can you do now to make Lake Wingra a better resource for you and your neighbors?

What do you see as priorities for managing Lake Wingra?

What’s Next?Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology