Future of Japan’s Energy

Kiyoaki Aburaki March 8, 2012

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Power Output in 2009 Total 956.5 TkWh, (Source) Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC)

 

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Time: 3/11/11, 14:46Magnitude : 9.0Depth: 30km

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Shut down by the earthquake

Based on a Kyodo graphic

Shut down for inspection after 3.11

As of 3/5/2012

5Appeared in WSJ, July 29

Energy Conservation in Summer 2011

Fuel Consumption by Utilities

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　LNG (t) Crude Oil (kl)

Apr-Sep Oct-Dec Apr-Sep Oct-Dec2010(A) 20,461,987 9,803,200 2,570,401 520,428 2011(B) 24,730,436 12,990,743 3,469,457 3,577,299

B/A 1.21 1.33 1.35 6.87

　 Heavy Oil (kl) Coal (t)Apr-Sep Oct-Dec Apr-Sep Oct-Dec

2010(A) 3,277,360 1,215,916 24,656,679 12,634,827 2011(B) 3,969,986 3,263,084 22,808,595 12,922,578

B/A 1.21 2.68 0.93 1.02 (source) FEPC

Power Output in Dec. 2011

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Nuclear7%

Coal23%

LNG46%

Oil 16%

Hydro6%

Renewable 2%

(Source) METI

Three Challenges in Energy Policies1. To establish imminent-, medium- and longer-tem energy

strategies that reduce uncertainty for the private sector and increase confidence among a public.

2. To formulate a flexible and diverse energy utilization Nuclear power (a role for baseload power) Fossil fuels Renewable energy

3. To use technological strength to contribute to the international community. Climate change Nuclear safety Saving fossil fuels

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Restart of Nuclear Power Plants1. No-Nuclear scenario means; Adverse effects on Japanese economy Relinquishment of Japan’s critical roles in the establishment

of global standards on nuclear safety, security, and nonproliferation

2. Actions towards Restart Four Steps

Stress tests by nuclear operators Approvals of Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency(NISA) Consents of Nuclear Safety Commission. Approvals of local governments

Recent statements of PM Noda and Industry Minister Edano

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Japan’s Domestic Annual PV Panel Shipments

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2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

totalresidential

(kW)

(source) Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association

For the Successful Utilization of Renewable Energy1. New Feed-in-Tariff as a booster (scheduled to start this

summer)

Entails utilities’ obligation to purchase all electricity generated by renewable energy sources, with no limitation, at prices to be fixed by the government.

Surge in investments (ex. mega-solar, wind). Companies (Japanese, U.S., Canadian) and governments

(central, local)

2. The success depends on various factors The criteria for approval of specified suppliers The requirements for interconnection (costs and sharing

responsibilities in stable supply) The capacity of the grid etc.

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Energy Sector Resiliency

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1. Current structures of the Japan’s utility sector 10 utilities with a vertically integrated business model The difference in frequency between eastern (50-hertz)

and western Japan (60-hertz)

2. Needs to discuss new structures for greater efficiency and flexibility that would fully accommodate power generation from diversified sources and players

Ownership and participation in generation, transmission, and distribution business

Responsibilities for maintaining stable electricity supply Costs of business developments etc.

Conclusion1. Energy is the “blood” of national livelihood and

corporate activities. Energy policy is one of the most important pillars of national strategy.

2. Three factors to shape future of Japan’s energy Technology Markets Competition

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