future of higher education oecd experience on trends and scenarios

31
Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios Bucharest – 31 October 2009 Kiira Kärkkäinen OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)

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Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios. Bucharest – 31 October 2009 Kiira Kärkkäinen OECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI). Outline . OECD Process Selected Trends OECD Scenarios. Future of Higher Education. OECD Process. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Future of Higher Education

OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Bucharest – 31 October 2009

Kiira KärkkäinenOECD Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)

Page 2: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Outline

OECD Process

Selected Trends

OECD Scenarios

Page 3: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Future of Higher EducationOECD Process

Page 4: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

OECD Directorate for Education

OECD Directorat

e for Education

Indicators and

Analysis

Management of

Higher Education

Education & Training

Policy

Centre for Educational Research

and Innovation

Page 5: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)

Aims to inform long-term educational policy development and making through…

Forward-looking research

Educational innovation

International exchanges

Page 6: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI)

Although long term thinking in education is important, educational policy making is often done with a short term

perspective.

Two parallel forward looking CERI projects– Schooling for Tomorrow– Future of Higher Education – University

Futures

Institutional synergies

Page 7: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

University Futures

Objectives– Feed strategic reflection on major questions– Highlight past developments and recent

changes– Underline future opportunities and challenges

International standpoint as a special feature

Page 8: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

University Futures

Two main types of activity1. Thematic trends analysis2. Dialogue with stakeholders and experts

Basis for future scenarios

Page 9: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

University Futures –Trends Analysis

From 6 initial themes…– Demography– Technology– Globalisation – market and quasi-

market forces– Academic research– Labour market

… to 3 final reports…– Demography – Globalisation– Technology

… and 3 cross-cutting themes– market and quasi-

market forces– Academic research– Labour market

Page 10: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

University Futures – Dialogue

Three types of meetings– Public conferences– Stakeholder meetings– Small senior-level

expert meetings

Some specific outputs – Overall, 12 events in 8

countries since 2003 – Discussions at the

Ministerial level in 2006

– Final international conference in 2008

Page 11: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

University Futures – Scenarios

Scenarios not seen as predictions of the future….

… but as a tool to combine several trends and think about future options in a

creative and structured manner.

Where are we going?

Where should we go and why?

How could we get there?

Page 12: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

Some Lessons Learned

Stakeholder and expert dialogue…

… brings in new and confirms old ideas…

…reflects and contrasts different points of view…

… develops common understanding on key issues…

…and adds political weight on scenarios.

Page 13: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

Some Lessons Learned

International comparative trends…

…help understand dynamics of change in a broader scale…

…support neutrality of analysis…

…but stay in general level…

…and are subject to path dependency.

Page 14: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Process

Some Lessons Learned

Institutional synergies…

…help with process and method…

…support data collection and use.

Page 15: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Future of Higher Education

Selected Trends

Page 16: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected Trends

Higher Education to 2030 Series

Forthcoming

• Volume 2: Globalisation

• Volume 3: Technology• Volume 4: Scenarios

Page 17: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected Trends

Globalisation and Higher Education Higher education in globalised

world– Highly skilled workforce – Research and innovation capacity– Cross-cultural encounters

Global influences on higher education– Mobile students, faculty and

institutions– International financing– Cross-border flows of idea

Simultaneous forces of competition and collaboration

Page 18: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected Trends

Increase in the Number of Foreign Students Worldwide and Projections

Source: OECD (2009)

Page 19: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected TrendsNumber of National Students Abroad and Mobility Rate to Foreign Countries in 2007

Source: OECD (2009)

Page 20: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected Trends

Destination of Foreign Students in the OECD Area (%) and Changes (% points)

Source: OECD (2009)

Page 21: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected Trends

Breakdown of Foreign Students (%) and Changes (% points)

Source: OECD (2009)

Page 22: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected Trends

Share of World Citations of Science and Engineering Articles

Source: OECD (2009)

Page 23: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Selected TrendsPercentage of Worldwide Science and

Engineering Articles Coauthored Domesticallyand Internationally

Source: OECD (2009)

Page 24: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Future of Higher EducationOECD Scenarios

Page 25: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECDScenarios

Four future scenarios by CERI

Open networking

Serving local communities

New public responsibility

Higher education, Inc.

Page 26: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Scenarios

Scenario 1 – Open NetworkingMain features

• International collaboration and networking leading to harmonization of systems

• New approaches to teaching• English as lingua franca• International collaborative

research, even if within the persistent hierarchy of institutions

• Free and open knowledge exchange and access to research

Related developments

• Bologna Process in Europe• International academic

partnerships and consortia• Increased mobility• Cheap and fast

communication facilitated by the Internet

• Developing culture of openness

Page 27: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Scenarios

Scenario 2 – Serving Local CommunitiesFeatures

• Institutions mainly focused on national, regional and/or local missions

• Mainly publicly funded and administered systems

• Streghtened financial support from local industry and needs-based lifelong learning

• Academics are trusted professionals with teaching as their central objective

• Convergence between universities and polytechnics

Related developments

• Scepticism regarding globalisation, even anti-globalisation movements

• Emergence of geo-strategic concerns

• Interest in preservation of national culture and fostering social cohesion

• Interest in regional role of higher education

Page 28: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Scenarios

Scenario 3 – New Public ResponsibilityFeatures

• Autonomy of institutions combined with greater use of ‘new public management’ tools

• Significant share of public funding with increasingly mixed resource base

• Strong public accountability, but also more private reward systems

• Marked diversification of institutions

• String national competition for public research funding

Related developments

• General quest for accountability, transparency, efficiency and effectiveness in public management

• Increasing institutional autonomy in many countries

• Cost-sharing and raising tuition fees increasingly under debate

• Increasingly competitive research funding

Page 29: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

OECD Scenarios

Scenario 4 – Higher Education Inc.Features

• Institutions competing globally on a commercial basis

• Public funding exclusively to non-commercially viable disciplines

• Strong competition for students with English as a key language of study

• Disconnection of research and teaching according to competitive advantage

• Concentration of research with worldwide competition for funding

Related developments

• Trade in higher education and inclusion of it in trade negotiations

• Increasing international mobility of students and cross-border higher education

• Increase of cross-border funding of research and private research activities

Page 30: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Serving Local Communities

International

National

MarketDemand-driven

AdministrationSupply-driven

Open Networking Higher Education Inc.

New Public Responsibility

OECD Scenarios

Four Scenarios for Higher Education Systems

Page 31: Future of Higher Education OECD Experience on Trends and Scenarios

Thank You

Kiira.Kärkkä[email protected]

www.oecd.org/edu/universityfutures