future of cotton industry, textiles, clothing and retail trends
TRANSCRIPT
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Take Hold of the FutureKey trends in Textiles and Retail
Text
� Soriana, Cencosud, Casino (CBD, Exito), Carrefour and Wal-Mart
Future of textiles is about
SPEED
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Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs$468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supplyUp from 60 years in 5 years
�30 million acres lost
�EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food
30% US grain burnt in cars
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30% US grain now burnt in vehiclesBiofuels link energy and land / food prices
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WGP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
US GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
EU GDP 1980-‐2013 (%,constant prices)
Vietnam GDP 1985-‐2011
>40% WDP by 2015�IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity
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Future of textiles is about
EMOTION
US consumers willing to pay more for 100% cotton
Telling a simple 10,000 year old story: Grown from land and will return to the land - absorbs moisture, breaths, feels good.
100% renewable, natural, biodegradeable. Huge improvements in land use, less water, less pesticides. 100 million farming
families depend on cotton - in 80 nations
Future of textiles is aboutDEMOGRAPHICS
1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce singlegreat-grand child
0-14 years old EU 15% : Turkey 26%>65 years old EU 18% : Turkey 7%
75% of all US and UK wealth owned by those over 65 -‐ mostly women
Future of textiles is aboutEMERGING MARKETS
300 million move to cities in China and475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
Growth of Middle Class in Africa250m people - $2 trillion by 2040
Emerging Middle Class Love Cotton
Cotton consumption (m of tons) will be dominated by emerging markets
Cotton in emerging markets: 96% mill use, 97% imports, 81% production, 52% exports
Winding down of huge China stocks of cotton
Future of textiles is about SCALE
In many EU naOons, up to 70% of retail spending is in <8 companies
Future of textiles is about INNOVATION
Future of textiles is about MOBILE
e-‐commerce will hit $1.5 trillion in 201412% of all retail in UK
Mobile Retail50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013Mobile influenced 72% of retail sales in Brazil in 2013
1 trillion pages a month
> 200 million mobile payments> 70% in Africa > $160bn
• Kenya -‐ 17m customers• $9bn pa -‐ >33% GDP
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LocaOon MarkeOngis next
BIG THING
Future of textiles is about Internet of Things
90% all global data generated in last 2 years
Big Data
Future of textiles is aboutFusion of Online / Offline
Over 4000 road hauliers in EU
1.3bn home delivered e-‐com items in UK a year (+12% pa)
Big Returnshome delivery -‐ sample dresses in every size -‐ up to 6 out of 7 clothing
items returned
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3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
Gold standard:10am orders for 3pm Delivery
10am orders for 3pm Delivery
Future of textiles is aboutSUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS
What is Sustainable Cotton ? •Be$er use of land, water, transport, energy, labour force•Benefit to environment, communi;es and future world
Double cotton production per acre since 1960s Impact of transgenic cotton on yields
Synthetic textiles - industrial oil-based product
•In the UK, sales of Fairtrade products in 2012 reached £1.5•78 per cent of consumers recognise the FAIRTRADE Mark•One in every three bananas sold•44 per cent of bagged sugar sold•25 per cent of all roast and ground retail coffee •Fairtrade products are now sold in more than 125 countries•FAIRTRADE logo most widely-‐recognised ethical label globally
Fair Trade Food Sales up 18% pa
Organic v Fair Trade Bananas
Supply Chain - Cotton Initiative - Cotton Made in Africa
Child Labour
PartnershipGreat industry examples of NGO acOvists as
senior policy advisorsKey supply chain partnerships
Delivery Timing -‐ AdapaOon -‐ InnovaOon IntegraOon -‐ CollaboraOon -‐ Accountability
Transparency -‐ Sustainability
Future of textiles is aboutEMOTION + SPEEDDEMOGRAPHICS
EMERGING MARKETSINNOVATION
SCALE + MOBILEFUSION OF ONLINE / OFFLINE
INTERNET OF THINGSSUSTAINABILITY and ETHICS
•Individuals•Families•Farmers•Workers•Shareholders•Communi4es•Wide World
Clothing for a Be`er World
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
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