future of cities: thinking for the long-term
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Cities:Thinking for the long-term
Sir Mark Walport
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
credit: kaorihf/CC0 1.0
British Science Festival
1950UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
2
30% Urban.
global pop.
40% Urban.
global pop.
1980
52% Urban.
global pop.
2010
61% Urban.
global pop.
2030 2050
72% Urban.
global pop.
A Changing Urban WorldThis graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding
100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
British Science Festival
1950
3
2010 2030 2050
This graphic depicts countries and territories with urban populations exceeding 100,000. Circles are scaled in proportion to urban population size.
And looking closer at Europe...
UNICEF Urban Population Map (2012)
4 Foresight Future of Cities
Cities matter as places
Cities are dense concentrations of people, jobs, culture, productivity
British cities substantially differ in size, scale, speciality and complexity
Cities are the places where policy objectives succeed or fail
Housing
Health
Growth
Employment
E.g.
5 Foresight Future of Cities
CatalystsImproved cities enable other policy outcomes
Co-creatorsWhitehall and cities as direct partners in policy development
AmplifiersCities bring reputation, leverage, brand to wider national policies
Cities are important contributors to policy-making
Graduate employment [e.g. Sheffield]
Healthy lives [e.g. Bristol]
Innovation & investment [e.g. Cambridge]
$ ¥
6 Foresight Future of Cities
Cities comprise a way of thinking- ‘cities lens’ for policy challenges
National policy is best when informed by local circumstances
Cities and city-regions are good places to integrate policy
National housing challenges has different local supply-demand realities: surplus in Liverpool, undersupply in Bristol
Quality housing at local level integrates connectivity investment, employment provision, facilities, etc.
e.g. housing
7 Foresight Future of Cities
Why now? A time of devolution
The UK has been devolving powers to cities for 15 years…
…the pace is now accelerating
Greater London Authority created
English Mayoral Referendums
Manchester Devolution Deal
Cities and Local Government
Devolution Bill
2000 2012 2014 20152013
City deals(Waves 1 & 2)
2007
Further powers transferred to GLA
8 Foresight Future of Cities
Many recent reports on cities
What are the prominent themes and signals about the future of our cities?
9 Foresight Future of Cities
Thinking about the future has a long history – some things come to pass…
Ebenezer Howard, Garden City, 1902
Letchworth Garden City, 2013
Uxcester Garden City, 2015
credit: www.letchworth.com
credit: Urban Design Group
10 Foresight Future of Cities
… others ideas to varying degrees
1979
Motopia, 1963
Post-disaster housing, 2009© Clouds Architecture
What we are currently thinking:Future cities should be liveable cities
11 Foresight Future of Cities
credit: London Legacy Development Corporation
12 Foresight Future of Cities
To realise attractive future cities,
action and investment will be needed
But the nature of city systems reveals
some fundamental challenges for
approaches for future investment
13 Foresight Future of Cities
Challenge 1:City systems have long cycles of impact
New towns
Green beltsCity deals
GLAService economy
Railway investment
Devolution
Municipal bonds
Car-oriented development
Digital technologies
Cotton trade
Canals
National Grid
Growth of UK Ports
Brownfielddevelopment
Welfare state
Shipbuilding
Imp
ort
ance
of
citi
es a
s au
ton
om
ou
s u
nit
s
2000s1900s1800s
Increasing obesity levels
City networks
14 Foresight Future of Cities
Heritage
Attractiveness of place
Creative Economy
Teacher attraction & retention
Housing
Student performance
School capacity
Land availability
Quality urban form
EmploymentWell-being
Minimising isolation & loneliness
Neighbourliness
Cultural events& activitiesUniversities
Innovation
Economic productivity
Connectivity
New technology
Agglomeration opportunities
Short commute
Strong labour marketActive travel
Travel to work
Challenge 2:City systems are highly interdependent
ICT infrastructure
Thinking with a system-wide view
15 Foresight Future of Cities
What do we have to do?Respond with appropriate ways of thinking
NOW FUTURE
Thinking with a long-term view
16
How can we better support this?
Foresight Future of Cities
Greater availability of data is driving new
analytical approaches
Emerging ‘Science of Cities’ potential for
Active Cities development
17 Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in evidence types required
Local consultationand visioning
Academic reviews
Workshop feedback
Future trends analysis
Comparative data
Disruptive ideas
Aspirational visions
18 Foresight Future of Cities
Diversity in methods required
Speculative design
Future projections
Data analytics & modelling
Major city empowerment
London-centric
Smaller cities focus
Baseline 2037
UK national system “What-if” scenarios
19 Foresight Future of Cities
Include local people
credit: GO-Science/OGLv3.0
20 Foresight: Future of Cities
“My purpose is to inquire into the influence which the progress of modern science and industry may exercise upon the planning, and particularly upon the aspect, of the Cities of the Future…
The Cities of Tomorrow will be more readily susceptible to transformation and adornment than the Cities of Yesterday.”
Eugene Hénard (1910)
credit: Arpingstone/PD
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@foresightgovuk
www.gov.uk/go-science