future of bitcoin
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TRANSCRIPT
Future of Bitcoin
Ron GrossBitcoil
Present History
4 years into the adoption curve
X1000 price increase since 2010
Services
Legal / regulatory
Present History - Users
Present History - Media
Present History - Price
The future affects the present
Future predictions affect the present
Bitcoin is a Bootstrapped Currency
Three possible futures (at least)
Bitcoin fails
Bitcoin stagnates
Bitcoin wins
Bitcoin Fails
Bitcoin has powerful, well-funded enemies Payment processors Banks Governments ?
Various attacks are possible Protocol attacks (e.g. 51%) Price manipulation Regulatory attacks Hacking
Bitcoin Fails
People lose faith in Bitcoin
A race to the bottom – prices spiral to $0
The way down might take a while, like the way up
Bitcoin Stagnates
Bitcoin prices reach a stable price level
It becomes some small percent of the world economy
Used for some purposes, mostly on the internet
Growth in user base and monetary value halts
Bitcoin Stagnates
Bitcoin is useful even if not “everybody” is using it.
Bitcoin users can still: Hold their own money Send it to whoever they want Use advanced features
People move in and out of the Bitcoin economy at will
Bitcoin Wins
More and more people see the benefits
They trade Fiat money for BTC
Bitcoin is a major part of the world economy
Safety
Banks and payment processors cooperate instead of compete
Insured BTC deposits
Government issues Fiat backed by BTC (Gold Standard 2.0)
Usability
Bitcoin becomes boring
Several great wallets to choose from
Everything Just Works
Exchanges
Buy Bitcoins at your supermarket / bank
Distributed exchanges
Lower exchange fees
Managed wallets
Competition
Bitcoin is just the first cryptocurrency
Ripple is also a competitor
Maybe something else entirely?
Mining & Protocol
Block reward drops to zero around 2050
Transaction fee structure change
Hash function upgraded(Quantum resistant)
Other changes (e.g. micro-satoshi)
Some things remain fixed (21 million coins)
Questions?
ripper234.com/about
References
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses
http://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/2259/what-would-be-an-estimate-of-the-value-gained-if-the-whole-world-started-using-b
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Total_bitcoins_over_time.png
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardfork_Wishlist
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
http://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?showDataPoints=false&show_header=true&daysAverageString=1×pan=all&scale=1&address=