future of afghanistan.pdf

8/14/2019 Future of afghanistan.pdf

1/6

Futures for AfghanistanAuthor(s): Anthony HymanSource: The World Today, Vol. 50, No. 12 (Dec., 1994), pp. 229-233Published by: Royal Institute of International AffairsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40396562.

Accessed: 27/10/2013 08:08

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at.

http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp

.JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of

content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms

of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected].

.

Royal Institute of International Affairsis collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to

The World Today.

http://www.jstor.org
http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=riiahttp://www.jstor.org/stable/40396562?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/stable/40396562?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=riia


2/6

AFGHANISTAN THE WORLD TODAY 229Service: ormer SSR. Reuter ustralasianriefing,July 994.19. Kazakhstanskaiaravda,10March 992.20. Kazakhstanskaiaravda, 3 June 992.21. Argumentyfakty, o40,October 993, .5.22. 'Kazakhstan: reed Russian Activist ays Minority ightsAbused inKazakhstan', BC Monitoringervice: ormer SSR. Reuter ustralasianBriefing,June 994.23. QuotednTatiana viatkovskaia,Kazakhstanperioduperkrizisa:aidenaliobshchenatsionalnaiasel?',Kazakhstanskaiaravda, April 994, .2.

24. 'Kazakhstan: azakhLeaderCalls for nd to Ethnic iscrimination',BCMonitoringervice:ormer SSR. Reuter ustralasianriefing,June 94.25. Graham . Fuller, entral sia. TheNewGeopoliticsSantaMonica,CA:RAND,1994), .46.26. Izvestiia,3February994.27. izvestiia,6January994.28. Graham.Fuller,Central sia:TheQuest ordentity'Currentistory,ol.93,No582,April 994, . 148.29. N. Nazarbaev,deinaiakonsolidatsiiabshchestva kakuslovie rogressaKazakhstana. ublished s an attachmento Kazakhstanskaiaravda,9October 93. t s nterestinghat ritingn deologicalmatters as kind fwhimmongsthe PSU eadershipince rezhnev,nd ven therwiseullK.

Chernenkoaid avish ributeo t.30. Ibid.,p.7.31. Kazakhstanskaiaravda,10 March 992.32. AsquotednThe oviet egacy, yRoyD. LairdWestport,T:Praeger, 93),p.1 5. FurthervolutionfGeneral utskoi's iews n trongovernmentndlaw ndorder lacedhim t thehead f he loodymutinygainst opularlyelected residenteltsinnOctober 93.33. 'Kazakhstan: pinionPoll Shows Fall inNazarbaev'sPopularity',BCMonitoringervice: ormer SSR. Reuter ustralasianriefing,9March1994.34. Althoughll five entral sian epublicsre eferredo sMoslem ountries,Islam oesnot ave eep ootsnKazakhstan.twas ntroducedo he omadicKazakhsnly 00years go nd s tillbased lmostntirelyn itualatherhandogma'. Martha rillOlcott,Central sia's IslamicAwakening',urrentHistory,ol.93,No582,April 994, . 153).Nazarbaev sthe nly entralAsian eaderwho penlytresseshat e s non-believer.35. W.FiermanEd.),Soviet entral sia: the ailedTransformationBoulder,CO: Westviewress, 993), .304.36. John . Helliwell,Empirical inkages etween emocracyndEconomicGrowth',ritish ournalfPolitical cience,Vol.24,Part ,April 994, .246.

Futures orAfghanistanAnthonyHyman

This rticlettemptso reviewhenature fthe roblemsacingAfghanistan,ndalso tomake nestimatef how the nterna-tional ommunitys, couldbe or shouldbe helping owardsreconstructionndreaching settlementnd,hopefully,n endto hewar.How tohelpAfghanistan'asthe opic f neloquentNote n The WorldTodayofApril1994,writtenyWilliamMaley.He urgedhat hedesperate lightf theAfghan eopleshould ot eregardedithndifferencen heWestern orld,utshould e seen tomatter,iving our asicgroundswhy hereshould eWesternoncern moral, umanitarian,olitical ndsocial.On the rux fthe rgumentthatAfghanistanattersndthat fghanshould ot ecynicallybandonedo thesolitary,poore,nasty, rutishndshort' xistenceketchedyThomasHobbes all peopleofgoodwill an agree. t is becausethepolitical ower quation asshiftednKabul, s well sbecausethis uthor's iews differromMaley's on certain ther hansymbolicssues, hat his rticles offered.Sincethe ndofJune 994most fKabul ies nthe ontrolofJamiat-i-Islamiorces,he o-calledgovernment',et ightingcontinuesndmuch fthecity tselfs now n ruins r semi-derelict.ndeed,tseems lmost farce opretendhat his ad,decrepitity s still nanyreal ense he apital fAfghanistan,or hat government'ssuch,n he ecognisedense f he erm,is in existencenKabul.Afghanistans nowoneofthebroken-backed tates f thethirdworld, ndanyoutsidehelpfor heAfghaneople hould e formulatedith his ealitynmind.Disintegration fAfghanistanPower ndresources ave devolved romKabul toprovincialcentres,hile abulhasveryew f he ervicesnd onveniencestaken orgrantedn modern apitals round heworld.The'government'nder henterimresident,urhanuddinabbani,

has few resourcesnd also lacks moral uthorityo rulethecountry.he ministries're hollow hells,more otentialhanactual entresfactivity.Not single oreigniplomatic ission as eftnKabul fterthemob ttackn Pakistan'smbassyt thebeginningf1994,althoughakistani iplomats averecentlyeturnedoKabulthesole foreignmbassy here.nstead, heconsulates f thevarious egionaltates rebeing un rom erat,Mazar-e-Sharifand Jalalabad.Whatever as valued nKabul before he1978Saur Revolutionnd the ongwar whichfollowedhas beendestroyedr ooted,nd his nce ivilisedndhighlyosmopoli-tanAsiancapital s now a cultural asteland.ThedisintegrationfAfghanistanasbeen gradual rocess,helped y he atalweakness fthe tatepparatus.hisprocessactually egan n the ate1980s,well before he ollapse f theNajibullah overnmentn April1992. It took theform f adevolution fpowers o ocal militia roups asedontribal rethnic lliances r sectarianolidarity.hisbroughto ocal orregional rominenceeneralRashidDostumnMazar-e-Sharifand the smailis n Pul-e-Khumri,ndmany esserfiguresndifferentrovinces.As Barnett ubincorrectlyredictednJanuary992,whateverappensn he apital,hese roups illnot asily urrenderower o officialsent rom abul'.1The weakness fthe entral ower nKabul s particularlystrikingnthe aseofAfghanistan'sasternnd southernrov-inces orderingnPakistan. hiswasnot omuch caseofKabulhaving o dealwith ocal warlords ndaccept ontrol y ocalmilitias ut, ather,fPakistan,hroughhe SI (Inter ervicesIntelligence),orgingewdirectinkswithAfghanommandersandshrewdly anipulatingashtun lan or tribal ivalries. hisamountedo a reversal fprewaratternsf nfluencelong heso-called urand ine,which adfavoured abul. FordecadesAfghanistansed ribal olitics cross hat isputed oundaryo

This content downloaded from 145.76.233.65 on Sun, 27 Oct 2013 08:08:05 AMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp


3/6

230 THE WORLD TODAY DECEMBER 1994pressureakistan; akistan as nowfully eveloped capabilityto do the ame nthe ther irection.'2Miseriesoflife nKabulFor ome1 5mpeople till ivingnKabul, aily ifehasbecometerriblyifficultnduncomfortable,s well as dangerous.heimpactf he ightingaries reatlyetween ifferentreas f hecity. ome uarterslikeAf har whichwere ensely opulatedonly year gonow ie nruins r re ffectivelyut fbounds ooutsidersecause fthedangers rom eavy ighting.he threeMikroyans,ewer reasof Soviet-builtpartmentlocks, avealso sufferedreat amage. utKhairkhanand uite few therareas are relatively nscathed,ufferingtray ocket ttacksratherhanwholesale estruction.Civilianufferingasbeen erriblehis ear,while ungernddisease re preadingast.More han 00,000Afghansavebeenforcedoflee srefugeesrdisplaced ersons,ndmost re acinga precariousxistencewithoutignificantutsidehelp.WhilesomeKabulishavebecome nured osuch onditionsand venproved esilient sensitiveoreignisitorsre shocked ytheextent f he estructionndhowbrutishife asbecomenwhatused obe evenratherecentlyrelativelyeaceful laceto ive.Kabulis under ermanentiege, nd for hat easonhas beencompared ymanyoSarajevo. tsdestructionas edRaymondWhitakerocomparet topost-Hitlererlin.3The current ound f fighting eganon 1 January 994between heforces f the o-calledgovernment'fProfessorRabbani ndAhmed hahMassoud, n theonehand, nd thecombined orces fHizb-i-IslamifGulbuddin ekmatyarndGeneral ostum. he ivilian opulationasbeen pared nly irraids verKabul,whichnthepast ausedgreatndiscriminatedamage ndmany asualties. t is notduetocompassion. hemost ikely eason or his hangenstrategy,ccordingo ocalobservers,s earlierosses fmilitaryircraftnd ncreasingisksofflyingnserviced,nairworthyircraft.Years fwarfareave ffectedveryone.andbagsre tackedhighoprotectouses rom omb last r asualbullets.Whereverpeople ive nKabul, hey ave had tocome to termswith hebreakdownfservices hey sed to take or ranted.lectricityrarely unctions,xceptfor hose nstitutionsithgenerators.Importeduel or eatingrcooking like svery ear.Watersnowmostly rawn rom umps nthe treets,nduncollectedrubbishswell s rubble romuined uildings asaccumulatedfast. he elephoneystems notworkingither. ecause f heseproblemsndthepoor tate fnutritionndhealthngeneral,fearsbound f utbreaksf holera nd yphoidpidemics.omeof thecity'swater ourceshavebeentreated ith hlorineoreduce he isk fwater-borneiseases.The ity's ssentialervicesrekept oing y small umberof rainedxperts,xpatriatess well sAfghans.nKabul, s inother fghanities,henternationalommitteef heRedCross(ICRC) standsut. tswell-organisedperationiveshumanitar-ianhelp o cores f housandsfvictimsfwar.Kabul's argesthospitals refunctioninguitewell throughhededication fteams fAfghanoctorsndnurses. upplies fvitalmedicines,bandages ndmedical quipmentre allprovided ythe CRC,alongwithmonthlyalaries or he taff. anyhospital eds refilled ith oundedightersrompposingides thoughoctorsneversktowhich artieshe atientsre ffiliated.hey cceptanyonenneedoftreatment.abul'sdoctors ndhospitalsremanagingokeep trictlyeutraln his enseless ower-strugglewhichs steadily estroyinghat emains fKabul.

Other on-governmentalrganisationsNGOs) are atwork,including decins ansFrontires,are nternational,xfamand the nternationalssistanceMission IAM) of Christianvolunteers,he oldestNGO in Afghanistannd representedcontinuouslyince 1966. AM stillmaintainsheNOOR EyeInstitute,ssistingye hospitalsndclinics nKabul,Herat ndMazar-e-Sharifndtraining fghan phthalmologists.hat slackings a UNpresencenKabul somethingf a surprisenview f heong-standingN effortsohelp et eace nAfghani-stan. astJanuary,heUN'sexpatriatetaff ere rderedo eaveKabulustwhen heywere rguably ost eeded. omeof hemleft nwillinglyor afer iaces like slamabad, ut thas notpreventedreat corn bout heUNpull-outmong he xpatri-ates stillworkingn Kabulamid tsdangers.The poppies ofAfghanistanWars nddrugs ften o together,nAfghanistans in Burmabefore.reedom romentralovernmentontrolombined ithopenborderserves oencourage oth roductionnd nterna-tional radingnnarcotics.ultivationfopiumnsideAfghani-stanhas risensteadily ver thepast decade, and narcoticsproductionn the form f heroins almost ntirelyxported.Estimates arywidely boutthe scale of opiumproduction.AccordingoUNexperts,he olume fopium roducedn1993amountedo ome ,200metricons romothountries,fwhich90per ent riginatesromrovincesnAfghanistan,lose o heborders ith akistan.In Pakistan'sNorth-Westrontier nd Baluchistan rov-inces, hepoppy rop s down.Yet theheroin rades thriving.EvenwhenAfghanpiums not rocessednPakistanierritory,most sbroughtnfor elling n tomainlyWesternlients. hisis inspite f a Pakistan overnmentrugs ontrol rogrammewhich eceives ubstantialinancialnd technicalacking rommanyWesterntatesnd nterpol,s well s theUNDrug ontrolProgrammeUNDCP).Onebasicproblemomes romhe ase and elativeheapnesswithwhichdrugs arons' an setup ndoperatemall aborato-riesn he emi-independentribalreas. n1993, or xample,ntheAnbar reaofMohmand gency,ne suchheroinaboratorywas raided nddestroyed.ut nMay 1994residentsfAnbarappealed o thegovernmento ntervenegain nddestroywonew laboratories tarted p. Another roblems thatmanypowerful ennPakistanainbydrugsmuggling.hough rugseizures n Pakistan eportedlyompare uitewell with ran,TurkeyndotherMiddleEastern ountries here rugs re aproblem,hefollow-upfprosecutingasesthroughakistan'sjudicial ystemsveryweak,not osayoften ominal.InPakistanmany eyfiguresnthedrugsworld re eft reetooperate s ifheroinmuggling as legalised.Often singlegal ronts acover or heirlourishingarcoticsnterests,hesenot-so-respectableusinessmen ave come to cosyfinancialarrangementsith he olice nd aw-enforcementfficershicheffectivelyreventsnterferencentheir arcoticsrading.hefortunesf many f Pakistan's ollarmillionaires hohaveemerged verthepastdecade aresaid to be based on herointrading. hey nclude umerous embersfprovincialssem-blies, nfluentialoliticiansnd evenministers.hey onstitutea pro-drugsobbywhich asclout nPakistan.InsideAfghanistan,ocal cooperationwithdrugs-controlprogrammesannot e takenor ranted.piumsby ar hemostprofitableashcrop.The owrisks fopium ultivationndtheease of ellingt nmakemany armersager o ake n he eavy



4/6

AFGHANISTAN THE WORLD TODAY 231labournvolved.hough fghanistanroduces ost f he piumconvertednto eroin,syet elativelyewAfghansre onsum-ers of heroin. hismaynow be changing.n addition o thetraditionalpium-takersnBadakhshannd other emote orth-ern egions, anymore asesof ddictsnAfghan efugeeampsinPakistan rebeing evealed.Pakistan as ts wn larmingrugs roblem, itht east maddicts roviding large nd ucrativeomesticmarket. eroinandother rugs reeasily ndopenly vailable n allPakistan'scities. n Peshawar, or xample, fixcan cost under 1 (20rupees). he conomics fheroin re uch hat rofit arginsrefarhigher orthe dealers. t has been calculated hat piumfarmerseceiveust6 per ent fthe etail alueofheroin ales.Even o,forndividual armers ith naverage 0kilogrammesof piumo ell, he roceedsat 50perkilogrammeorthome2,500) re verymportantart fhouseholdncome.t houldbe contrastedithrdinary onthlyalariesoftenate runpaid)ofgovernmentmployeesnAfghanistan,t some 15 (30,000Afghanis).stimatesyUNDCP of the nnualvalueofdrugsexportsor akistan'sconomyreplaced t ome 1.5m,mostlyinthe ormfheroin. his mountso 20per ent fPakistan'stotalegitimateommodityxports. therndependentstimatesareconsiderablyigher.Justificationsor armersultivatingpiumusually mpha-sise that pium s a traditionalrop s wellas giving hebestreturn.oppies rovide ot nly pium ut lsohighly egardedby-productsf nimal odder,oap nd ooking il.Farmersendtomake ightf he our-monthycle fworkn he ields, hichis labour-intensivend often nvolves he ntire amily. omeprovinces f Afghanistanre highly pecialised n opiumorhashish roduction.his pecialisations increasing.he south-eastern rovince fNangarhar,or xample, as somedistrictsalmostntirelyiven ver opoppies,withs much s 80 or ven90 per ent f arable andutilised.

Ironically,hepoppy ields tretchingnfullview longsidetheJalalabad ighwayften tanddjoininghe nti-drugostersputup bytheUNDCP as part f tspropaganda.When visitedJalalabadnApril1994and touredhepoppy ields, hemainpoint tressed ythe mallfarmersuitebrazenlyndproudlydisplayingheirlourishingoppyropswas hatpium ays erywell s a cash rop. nefarmerctuallydvanced he kewed iewthatnowwehavewonfreedomrom heCommunists.reedommeanswe cangrow piumwithoutnyrestriction.'Yetpoppies re never ultivatedna political acuum.If acommanderants o top he rowingfpoppies,hen ealwayscan', laimsAndrewrycefUNDCP.This eems obeborne utby patternsffarminglsewheren Afghanistan,nd it alsoprovidesne lenderope hatventuallyoppyultivationouldbe reduced y a combinationf carrot nd stick. n future,incentives ay eoffered,irectlyinkedo strictan nopiumcultivation,n theform fforeign-fundedrojects or uildingroads ndmaintainingchools, reven forde-mining. s yet,though,here s nopolicybeingfollowed fcrop ubstitution.Effortsteducatingeople bout heharmfulspects f he rugtradewillbe intensified,ut he act emains hatt s anuphillstruggle. part romhe bvious ashbenefits, any perhapsmostfarmersn both idesof thefrontier regard annabis,opium r tsderivativess a legitimaterop ogrowwhich asnothingmmoralbout t.As withAfghan olitics, henarcotics rade s intimatelyconnectedwithPakistan.Anyrealistic ttemptso reduceoreliminatehe piate ndustryfAfghanistanust ake nto ull

account he nternationalamificationsf theheroin rade, otonlywith akistan ut lso withran, urkey,hina'sXinjiangregion, heCentralAsianrepublics, ussiaand ontoWesternEurope ndNorth merica.ndeed, hissrecognisedn recentUNDCP paperwhich luntlytates: These inkagesmplyhatdrug ontrol rogrammesave to be coordinatednd imple-mentedhroughouthe egionf heyretobeeffective.'4Refugeesand educationThe savagedestructionf Kabulhas resultedn hundredsfthousandsf efugeeseaving or afer laces,ikeJalalabado hesouth,where t east heres nofighting.ut argenumbersfhomeless eople till emain,ften ecause hey avenomoneytopayforplacesintrucks oget away.Thishas led to someunforeseenocialconsequences.Many ublic uildingsfKabul, chools ndmosques like,havebeenappropriatedo housedisplaced amilies rom e-stroyedr hreatenedityreas. nthe orthf he ity lone hereare50,000refugeeshelteringnthisway. They re living nterriblyrowdedonditions,ftenhree amilieso neroom. hisprovidesemporaryespite,ut t lsomeans hat ducationt lllevelshascome o a standstillnthe apital,with llundamagedschoolbuildings ccupied yrefugees,ndteachersompletelyidle.Higher ducation ourses, lready nder reat train,ol-lapsed woyears go,with he all f heNajibullah egime. hecampusof Kabul Universitytselfwas under ccupation yfightersfHizb-i-Wahdat,he owerfulhiaMoslem arty hichcontrols considerabletretchf he apital.Much f he ampusinfrastructureasbeen ooted rwrecked. hough hegovern-mentppointednewVice-Chancelloror abulUniversity,hatis as far as itscommitmentoes towards ebuilding ighereducation. heVice-Chancellor,rofessor assanyar,emainsblithelyptimisticbout he hances f tartingp gainnrentedpremisesomewherenKabul, venthoughmany fthebest-qualifiedeacherseft fter 78, ndmoren heast ery ifficultyears. erecentlyisited heUnited tates nd eportedeceivingwelcomepromises fbacking ythreeAmerican niversitieswhichhad been inked ofacultiesfKabulUniversityefore1978.Meanwhile, ewminiature-scaleniversitiesregoingfor-ward nprovincialownswhere here s peace and somesem-blanceof government.n Herat, or xample,helphas beenpledgedfromGermany,romBochumUniversity. enerousGerman id forAfghan evelopment, igher ducation ndtrainingontinuedptothe oviet nvasionnDecember 979.Othermini-universityentres re Mazar-i-SharifndJalalabad.

Apart rom he 0,000 efugeesccupyingublic uildingsnKabul, nestimated00,000moreKabulishavemanagedo akeshelter ith heir elatives lsewhere n the ity.AccordingoPeter tocker f he CRCdelegationnKabul,theyreperhapsnot ndanger fstarvation,ut f theblockade ontinues,hesituationisks ecomingnbearable'. read sthe taple ood ormostKabulis.One of the ssential onsiderationsstheprice fflour,whichhas beenrising apidlyince1January,hen helatest ound ffightingrupted.oodhasbecome weaponn hestruggle,ith izb-i-Islamiightersynicallyreventinglourrother upplies eaching abulis iving n areas ofthecapitaloutside ts ontrol. owever, inceApril steady low fflourbroughtnbyfood onvoys ent utfrom akistan as madesignificantifference,evellingut ricesroundhe ividedity.It is paid forbythe WorldFood Programmef theUN, but



5/6

232 THE WORLD TODAY DECEMBER 1994coordinatednddistributedy heCRCandother GOs.Heavysacks fflour eighing0kilogrammesrebeing hiftedcrossthe ity nsimplewooden ush-carts,ftenccompaniedyfourormoremembersf familyorwhom he oodwillbeessentialfor thecomingmonths. heyincludeformer ivil servants,schoolteachers,echniciansndpolicemen, hocurrentlyaveneitherobs normonthlyalary heques. omeof those sawduring recent isit avebecome ettyradersnflourrsugar.Frequentlyhevictims fcross-fire,he ivilian opulationmust lso satisfy hegreedof the armedfightersmanningcheckpoints heneverhey o around hecity.Bribes opassthroughhe heckpointsreroutine,ven houghmost iviliansarepoverty-stricken.AnagreementnMarch 993 emporarilytoppedhe ocketattacks n Kabulbyforces fHizb-i-Islami,nreturnor ormallyaccepting ulbuddin ekmatyars PrimeMinistern thegov-ernment'. sWilliamMaleywrote hillinglyt the ime:4Themessage entbythe ettlements that hewaytobecomeAfghanrimeMinisterstokill nough abulis;and t s a messagewhichmayreturno hauntAfghanpoliticsn futureears.'5There sconsiderableruthnthisudgmentut, egrettably,the otherparties nd leaders are also responsible orgreatsufferingndmany ivilian eaths nd njuriesnthisviciouscivilwar. hefact emainshat opitysbeing hown y ny ideforthe wretched ivilians n thiswarof attrition. aturallyenough, heres much itternessmong rdinaryeopleat thetreatmentheyre eceivingrom he arious rmedroups.venamonghosewhonitiallyelcomedhe ownfallf heNajibullahregimenApril 992, he heer awlessness f he unmenas edto mass-alienationnd an angerwhich s madeveryplaintovisitors.Women's afetynthese angerousimesshelped ytheircovering phairwithcarves ndwearingmodest i.e.,respect-able dressn inewith onservativeslamic tandards.ut uchisthe tate f awlessnessnKabul andKandahar hathere anbe no firmuaranteesfpersonalafety.heordinaryeople fKabul desperately antpeace. Yet manypeople therehavebecome eeply emoralisednd ppear ofeel hathey ave eenabandoned ythe est ftheworld. t sdifficulto seeany ndto histruggleor owernAfghanistanithoutctiventerven-tion ndcontinuingommitmentythe nternationalommu-nity.An Afghan-originatedeace plan, launchedby a distin-guished ommandern theguerrillawar,MaulviJalaluddinHaqqani,wasannouncedtthe eginningfMay, alling n allthewarringartiesostop ightingndgiveuptheir ower oanominatednterim overnment.nfortunatelyheplan wasstillborn,erhapslso too ltruistic,ndhad ittlenducementooffero ome f he ey layers,otably ulbuddinekmatyarrGeneral ostum. ut nepoint rged yMaulviHaqqani s worthcarefulonsideration.eemphasisedhe eed ofind undingorpeace, ndtopaypeoplenot ofight,atherhan orce hem odepend ncontinuingarfarenbehalf frival eaders.t s anAfghan ersionfthe eacemovement.6Certainlyhe elated ffortsf heUN's peacemission ndertheformeroreignMinisterfTunisia,MahmoudMesteri,sbetterhan othing.or omeAfghanriticshismission, hichbegan arlyn1994, eems ike nexample fUN tokenism',swell s beinghalf-heartednd lmost ertainlyoomed. etthefactremains hat heUN mustrepresent hat lender opespersistnreaching eaceand a settlementnAfghanistan.

On behalf fthe UN it can be argued hat tsspecialisedagencies re lready esponsibleor roviding uch f he ood,tents ndotherupplies eeded ocopewith herefugeemer-gency nd civilianneeds nKabul,and stafff theUN HighCommissionerorRefugeesUNHCR) have helpedwith hereturnf more han nemillion fghanefugeesrom akistanand ran nrecent ears. he fact hat hiss not noughshardlythe ault ftheUN. Earlier rojectionsfreconstructionidforAfghanistan,ftenmadeby rforUNHCR n1988-90under hedirection f SadruddinAgha Khan,were large-scale,worthhundredsfmillionsfdollarsnnually. ow, hough,ledges ybigdonor tates rehard ofind,ndapathybounds.Options forAfghanistanSometragediesome about hroughaturalauses, ikeearth-quakesorfloods.TheAfghan ragedys almost ntirely an-made,the result f a seriesof mistakes ndmiscalculationscompoundedy heworld's allous r ynical eglectfAfghani-stan ince hewithdrawalf he ast oviet roopsack nFebruary1989.The war which eganback n 1979 s now so old that hefresherroublesnd ragediesfBosnia, omalia rRwanda eemtomany eoplemuchmore elevantndpressing. fghan ar-lords re notfightingihad (holywar),nor or nyprinciples,but implyverwho s tohave ower. s the ersian roverbays:'Twokings onot it nto nekingdom.'We can udge he ackofmoral cruplesn thiswarfareyGulbuddin ekmatyar,hofor ne-and-a-halfearsustified is rocketttacksn Kabulbydemandinghat hetroops f the Communistraitor' eneralDostum hould eave he ity. inceJanuary,ekmatyars alliedto the ameDostum. t sonly ower-hungryeaders nd mbi-tiousocal warlords ho an benefitycontinuedivilwar. oralmost decade,theRussians uthlesslyttacked fghan il-lages,destroying uch f thecountry,illingmore han nemillionmen,women nd children nddeliberatelyrivingutmillions f rdinaryeople srefugees. ow t s the ivalAfghanpartyeaders hemselves ho re ompletinghe ycle fdestruc-tion nKabul.Even f t s nowAfghans ho arefightingetween hem-selves,with odirectnvolvementfforeignorces,t sforeignweapons, ombs,mines ndmilitaryircraft anufacturednforeignountries hich recausing hedestructionnsideAf-ghanistan.heCold Warmaybedead,but he egacy fsuper-power ivalriesiveson inunfortunatefghanistan.hecoun-try'smmediateeighboursespecially akistan,ut lso ran ndthe hree entral sianrepublics)ouldplayfarmore onstruc-tive oles han hey re. SaudiArabia till emainsmportantsamajor ontributorfmoney uellinghe ighting,hannellediaprivate audidonors or hemost art.ManyAfghans romhedispersedntelligentsiareangryand ndespair t what heyeeas the ailure fthe nternationalcommunityverAfghanistan.ne of hese sProfessor .RasulAmin, ormer eadof the olitical cience epartmentfKabulUniversityndDirector ftheWriters' nion fFreeAfghani-stan, ased nPeshawar. rofessor min omplainshattwas heUnited tates nd otherWestern ountrieswhich rmed hepresentwarlords n Afghanistan,nd that theRussians ndWesternersught ocleanupthemess hey reated nwar-tornAfghanistan'.t s,maintainsmin,heirmoral esponsibilitytleast owork arderor eacethere,nstead fshrugginghoul-ders ndsayingt s an internaluarrel or heAfghanshem-selves oresolve.7



6/6

HUNGARY THE WORLD TODAY 233For twoyears, he UnitedNations eemed o havetotallyabandoned fghanistano tsowndevices, fter otably ailingbetween988 nd 1992 o chieve politicalettlementinked othe ovietmilitaryithdrawalnd change f egime. herecentinitiativeftheUN,albeitmodestnough, asraised opes hatthe Nmay ecomemorenvolvedn uture. hatanMacWilliamwrotenMarch 994 s ust s true t the ndof theyear:The formationf neutralovernmentnder he egisoftheUN is whatmost ducatedAfghans ant.However,since the advent f the new worldorder, he UN hasadjusted ts priorities. fghanistans way down theagenda.'8Unfortunately,heextraordinaryominance f the UnitedStatesnUNpolicy-makingillnothelp his ohappen. here sabsolutely o signof concern bout hefate fAfghanistannWashingtonircles. hebest ope or alvanisingNpolicymaybe concertedressurend obbyingromWesternurope, y heEuropean nion tatesndbyBritain ndFrance, s permanentmembersf the ecurity ouncil,nparticular.Many f he oreignpecialists orkingorAfghanistans awhole re fromWestern urope,notably rance, witzerland,Britain, ermany,taly,Belgium, heNetherlands,weden,Norway nd Denmark.Amongthem,British pecialists ndvolunteersre active nmany umanitarianrganisationsforexample, hevaluedde-miningperationsndtrainingorAf-ghan eams arriedutbyBritishx-armyxperts f theHaloTrust.Japans anotherey ountryhichwill ountnthe ask frebuilding. apanhasprovided hemostgenerous undingorAfghan efugeeeliefnPakistanormany ears ndcould akea muchmore ctive artnUN andothernitiativesn he omingdecade. ronically, estern urope, ikeJapan,s doingmuchbetter han he United tates.Britain's ontributionf10m

NOTES1 BarneyRubin, ActionMemorandumAfghanistan', nternational egotiationNetworkConsultation,CarterCenterofEmory University, tlanta,Georgia,January 992.2. Ibid.3. Extracts rom report y RaymondWhitaker,A city hatmustdie alone', TheIndependent, 5 March 1994.4. Quoted fromThe IllicitOpiate Industry f Pakistan', UNDCP, Islamabad,February1994, p. 6.

( 16m)for he urrentear up33per ent n 1993-94for idfrom he OverseasDevelopmentAdministration contrastsgenerously ithhat f heUnited tates, hich rovidedowellfor he uerrillaar gainstoviet orces.ntheUSfinancialear1992-93,Americanid forAfghanistanas for total f 40m,forUNagencies ndfor umanitarianelp ndreconstruction,fwhch 10mwas direct ilateral id. In 1993-94American iddeclined o some 6m,and in thecurrentear t has furtherdeclinedo n nsignificantevel, rovidingfew cholarshipsorAfghans.Britishid,provided hroughheBritishharity fghanaid,ismainlyor ural reas nsixprovinces,estoringrrigationndorchards,rowingnddistributingmprovedarieties fwheat.Cooperationscommon etween GOs. nKabul,Afghanaidsalso supportinghe workof CARE Internationaln helpingrefugeesndprovidingwater nd anitationrogramme,hileinJalalabadt unds heAustrian elief ommittee's orknnewcamps.Recognisinghe ealitiesf heAfghancene learly equirestaking longview.Among therhings,hismeansnot implyrecognisinghe bsolute ightfwarlordsorule, or fPresidentRabbani' Jamiat-i-Islamioclaim o be agovernmenthere ogovernmentxists.f ome ragile egree ffederal nitys toberestorednAfghanistan,twill equire long verduecceptanceof theneed for ompromiseetweenAfghanshemselvesndrecognitionf the xistencef ocalautonomies.Peace just ikewar needs obefunded.nternationalidforreconstructionhould ot nly e directedo pecificrojectsndgoalswhich an becarefully onitored,utbe large nough ocreate lternativemploymentorAfghanmen o as not oforcethem obecomehired unmenor ivalwarlordsndparties,rtogrow ashcrops fpoppies o ncrease heworld's upplies fheroin.5. WilliamMaley, The Reconstitution f theAfghan tate', inAfghanistannfo,Neuchtel,Switzerland,April 1 93.6. Inan interviewwith hewriter,William Reeve and Edward Gorman nKabul,

shortly eforehis formal aunch of theplan.7 A. RasulAmin,WritersUnionof reeAfghanistanncidental ssue, Peshawar,July1994.8. Ian MacWilliam, 'Unholy Warriors',The Guardian Weekend,London, 12March 1994.

Hungary:disenchantmentafter ransitionRudolfAndorka

Noone oresawhe apidollapse f he ommunistystem,asedon centralconomic lanningndone-partyule,nCentralndEastern urope.Timothy artonAsh,1 ne of themost stuteobserversf he hangesn his egionn he 980s, adpredicteda slowdecay f the oviet mpiren which ome ountriesndsome ocialgroupswouldbeable to achieve heirmancipation

slowly ndgraduallynthe ontextf generalconomic,ocialandpolitical ecline,.e., Ottomanisation'atherhan Finlandi-sation'. n 1989an eminent ungarianocial scientist,lemerHankiss,wrote book ummarisinghedifferentcenarios ro-jected n world iteraturebout hefuture f Eastern urope.2These cenariosredictedariously:ontinuityased nauthori-


future of afghanistan.pdf

Documents