future mobile technology mission to japan dissemination seminar background dr keith baughan chairman...
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Future Mobile Technology Mission to Japan
Dissemination Seminar
Background
Dr Keith Baughan
Chairman Mobile VCE
Nokia Mobile Phones
21st June 2002
Topics
Japan - Evolving Role
Mission Objectives
Mission Structure
Growth prior to 2002
Business Drivers
Japan - An Evolving Role
• Early 1990s - PDC, a national standard• 3G - pro active approach via ARIB, ITU, ETSI, 3GPP• First rollout of 3G - October 2001• Very active in ITU "Systems beyond 3G"• Proposed 4G air interface at 100Mb/s
Mission Objectives
• To review:• the rationale for Japanese proposals for
"Systems beyond 3G" including a "4G" air interface
• The diversity of views across Japanese industry• Technological progress "beyond 3G"• 3G rollout in Japan
Mission Structure
• Joint UK-Japan Symposium
"Future Mobile Communications" at YRP (Yokosuka Research Park)
• Half day visits to individual companies and other relevant organisations
Over 100-fold Growth in 10 YearsMobile phone subscribers worldwide
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002e
1 Billion: 1st half 2002
Cel
lula
r su
bscr
iber
s (m
illi
ons)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
P.R. of China
Mexico
Brazil
South Africa
Turkey
Canada
Germany
USA
France
Taiwan
Japan
Spain
Australia
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Korea
Austria
Italy
Sweden
Finland
Dec-91Dec-92Dec-93Dec-94Dec-95Dec-96Dec-97Dec-98Dec-99Jan-00
Cellular Penetration - January 2000
Source World Bank, EMC
Finland Sweden
Italy Austria
KoreaNetherlands
United KingdomAustralia
SpainJapan
TaiwanFrance
USAGermany
Canada Turkey
South AfricaBrazil
MexicoP.R. of China
Time Taken to Reach 50 Million Users
WAP
GSM
WWW/Internet
TV
5 15years 35
Radio
The #1 Consumer Electronics Industry
Sources: IDC, DataQuest, EIU
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19911992199319941995199619971998199920002001
Million units
Passenger Cars
PC's
Cellular Terminals
Annual sales volumes for Passenger Cars, PC’s and Mobile Phones
Watches -98: 1240 million
The Mobile World
In the future, a major partof personal communication
- be it voice, data, images or video - will be wireless.
The personal mobile devicewill be the main application platform
and medium!
InformationTechnology
Telecom
Consumer
Electronics
Digital and IP Convergence are the Main Building Blocks of the New Mobile World
NEW NEW MOBILEMOBILEWORLDWORLD
Consumption
Connection
Content
Amount and Types of Mobile Content Will Explode in the Future
• Types of content: • User created (images, videoclips, music etc.)
• Personal (music, movies, movieclips, games, applications, etc.)
• Group (family, friends, daughter's soccer team etc.)
• Community (greyhound owners' image album etc.)
• Subscribed (Manchester United Multimedia news service etc.)
• Network provided (location-based weather info etc.)
ImagesMMSs Audio/music ApplicationsVideoclips
New Categories Driving the Market Change
Imaging Phone
Imaging & Messaging & Browsing
Media Phone
Full browsing & Access to Media
Communicator
Full browsing & Corporate Data
Entertainment
Games & Music & Messaging
Business Drivers for "Beyond 3G" in Japan
• Competion from wireline 100 Mb/s• Fundamental belief that digital convergence of
hardware (cameras, audio, video, TV) with broadcasting, communications, computing is a major business opportunity
• Capacity limitations
Note: Social differences