future goggles changes and challenges in waste and resources

Adam Read (AEA) April 2012

CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event 1

Future Goggles: changes & challenges

in UK waste & resource management

20th April 2012

Presented @ the CIWM SW Centre 30 year celebration event (20th April 2012, Exeter)

Dr Adam Read

Director

AEA

My presentation in 20 minutes

+ Acknowledgements

+ A personal welcome

+ The Timeline

+ Looking Back - 1982

+ Making predictions – science or art?

+ Looking Forward – 2042

+ The future resource management sector …

+ A role for the CIWM?

+ Closure …2



The 3 wise men

+ Chris Coggins

+ Ernie Sharp

+ Lewis Herbert

+ Thank you for your ‘memories’

3

A personal welcome



My sponsor - www.aeat.co.uk Why me?

+ Practice Director @ AEA

- Waste Management & Resource Efficiency

+ Heavily involved with all things CIWM

- Chartered Waste Manager (and Environmentalist)

- Member of CIWM East Anglia Council

- Member of CIWM Education & Training Committee

- Former Chair of CIWM Midlands Centre Council

- Former London CIWM NGG Co-ordinator

+ Former Research Fellow @ Kingston Uni

- PhD in waste policy & strategy delivery

+ 18 years of waste sector experience

+ Self confessed Sci-Fi geek!

6



Some caveats …

+ I can not ‘see the future’

- But I spent 3 hours last

Saturday thinking about it….

+ I am using the past to help

predict the future

+ This is not ‘real science’

+ These are my opinions

- and mine only

+ Humour me… you can disagree

over lunch later!

+ And don’t quote me!!

7 8

This is not about the beer goggles



A 30 year horizon seems sensible

9

The Timeline in question ….

2012

2042

1982

Aged 8 Aged 38 Aged 68 10



Looking back to 1982

11

So what happened in 1982?

+ Michael Jackson’s Thriller Album released

+ Falklands war rages

+ Dallas was the most watched TV show

+ World Cup football tournament in Spain

+ The Satellite Channel launched - now Sky1

+ Channel 4 started broadcasting

+ Knight Rider reaches the UK

12



@ the movies …..

13

And more importantly ….

+ The launch of the Commodore 64

- Home computing for the masses!!

14



So what about waste management …

+ UK was dominated by dustbins and black sacks

- some bottle banks (even less can banks)

- a few council run door to door paper (and

textile) collections

+ Still a few rag and bone men …

+ UK household waste recycling average was < 2%

+ London was leading the way in 1982

- first Recycling Committee / Environment Panel

created by GLC

- first HWRC created at Victoria Road - Hillingdon

- first UK recycling officer Jeff Cooper appointed!

15

Steptoe and son losing ground ….

16



London’s first recycling officer

17

Waste composition trends ….

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1966 1978 1982 1993 2004

Perc

enta

ge %

(by w

eig

ht)

Plastic Textile Metal Glass Paper Food/Garden Ash/Dust



So what’s changed in 30 years?

+ Waste Management

- Rise of the large waste management companies

- Kerbside collections are now the norm

- Dustbins replaced by wheelie bins

- Waste arisings per head have increased

- Recycling rates have soared (by over 40%)

- Focus is now on organic materials

- Increasing concerns about climate and resources

+ Society

- Technology has come on leaps and bounds (IPads etc.)

- We are recycling TVs and movies from 1982

- We are still @ war (resources will always create conflict)

+ Some of us are still here ….. trying to adjust to all things new! 19

The speed of change?

+ Can we predict the future?

- If so, how far into the future?

+ Which model should we believe?

- Today = the technology revolution

- Speed of change increases year on year

- Pre 20th Century = the slow burn

- Was Roman Britain so different from the

18th Century ?

20



30 years seems like a lifetime ….

21

Is there any certainty in modelling ?

+ 2015 – 90% accuracy

+ 2025 – 80% accuracy

+ 2040 – 40% accuracy

+ 2080…. God help us….

22



Today will shape tomorrow …

23 24



Reality check!

25 26



Much will change in the next 8 years….

+ This is just MSW, what about C&I ?

28

0

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60

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Mil

lio

ns

to

nn

es

pe

r a

nn

um

Non-biodegradable

Municipal Waste

Biodegradable Municipal Waste

Requiring Diversion

Biodegradable Municipal

Waste Allowed to Landfill



Modern Waste Management … very

different in some ways to 1982 ….

But in others, not so different at all!

The urban fabric …. Not so different!

30



Hindsight is a good thing ….

112 years later and we might be ready to deliver!31

Looking ahead ….



New Partnerships …

• Technology Skills

• Grid Backup

• Grid Inputs

• Regulatory Risk

• Infrastructure

Energy Suppliers

• Contracts

• Locations

• Economic Rolein Communities

• Carbon CSRAgenda

• Forward Price Uncertainty

Electrical &Heat Users

• Rising Gate Fees

• Process Technology

• Conditioning Technology

• Supply Chain

• Strong Balance Sheets

Waste & ResourceLogistics

TechnologySuppliers

Heat mapping: supply & demand

34



However, we have the 80-20 rule…

+ The low hanging fruit has been picked …

- Post consumer recycling

- Recycled content

+ But 20% remains

- Producer responsibility

- Local services and systems

- Closed loop systems

- Renting (not buying)

+ What is the cost effectiveness of the remaining 20%?

+ What is the social acceptability of the remaining 20%?

+ Are we (as a society and as individuals) ready for this ….. 35

What will happen next ….…36



Global trends in resource use ….

37

Future resource use ?

38



Global commodities ….

+ Metals prices

39

The recession ‘bites’

40



Question:How will UK plc respond tothis challenge and addressthis risk while maintainingit’s competitiveness?

Addressing the strategic imperative

The robust international trade in illegally mined, quota-

busting rare-earth metals highlights China’s near monopoly

on the raw materials for environmental technology –

a 95% dominance of world supply that is likely to

become more widely noticed as China tightens its grip

The Times, 28 May 2009

“

”

AEA currently working in this space ….

42



Materials identified @ risk

+ Antimony

+ Cobalt

+ Indium

+ Lithium

+ Niobium

+ Platinum

+ Rare earth metals

+ Tin

+ Tungsten

43

US risk matrix

44



Palm Oil

Policy:

• Sustainable Production

Issue:

• Palm oil is used in many

products, including food and

cosmetics. Also used as a

biofuel

• Reputational risks

associated with palm oil

production in SE Asia and

S America

• Global palm oil demand

expected to double by 2030,

triple by 2050 – pressure for

sustainable sources

Neodymium Lithium

Policy:• UK aim of additional 21GW wind power by 2020

Issue:• Use Neodymium in high efficiency magnets

• 600 – 1000kg per 3-5MW turbine

• 20,000 tonnes required, world production 7,000 tonnes/annum

• China accounts for 90% production

• China are restricting supply

Policy:

• CCC aim of 1.7 million

electric cars on UK

roads by 2020

Issue:

• Used in lithium ion

batteries

• High growth in demand

expected globally as EV

uptake increases

• Uncertainty in long term

supply – requires

development in Bolivia

especially

Future limited resources – UK focus …

45

Boom in demand for technology metals

+ Critical for our technological way of life ….

46



Global end of life recycling rates

+ Precious metals

47

China’s dominance – a worrying sign

+ China is a leading producer of:

- Rare earths (97%)

- Antimony (91%)

- Tungsten (81%)

- Magnesium (77%)

- Graphite (71%)

- Germanium (71%)

- Flourspar (59%)

- Indium (50%)

- Gallium (32%)

+ Other leading producers:

- Brazil – Niobium (92%), US – Berylium (86%)

- South Africa – Platinum (61%), Congo – Cobalt (40%)

48



Price trends for rare earth oxides

49

Prices of critical raw materials

+ Expensive commodities!!!

50



Forecasts to 2020

51

Media attention ….

52



The Government acts ….

+ Challenges businesses to see

risks as opportunities for

change and improvement

+ Focuses on specific scarce

metals and minerals

- those recognised as critical

by businesses

- especially in the hi tech,

defence and environment

sectors

53

http://www.defra.gov.uk/publications/f

iles/pb13719-resource-security-

action-plan.pdf.

New approaches ….

+ Re-design

- Make recovery of these materials easier

- Design products that are less reliant on at risk materials

+ Materials substitution

+ New product engineering

- University of Tokyo has developed an electric motor that can

be used with Lithium batteries for electric vehicles on campus

but which does not use rare earth elements in the lithium

battery production

+ Recycling

+ Innovation Challenge Fund (Defra & TSB)

- Develop local economy closed loop projects 54



Poor Eco-Design! Why design differently?

+ 80% of the cost of a product is

determined at the design stage

+ 93% of production materials not used in

the final product

+ 80% of products discarded after a single

use

+ Design decisions will affect the whole

lifecycle from the manufacture and use

to the disposal of a product

56



+ Focus on ease of segregation

+ Use simple materials

+ Must link to infrastructure in country of choice

Design for recyclability

57

Design for recycled content

+ Aluminum – 95% less energy use

+ Switch from PET to recycled PET

- saving of 1.5 to 2 tonnes CO2 equivalent per tonne

+ Card – can put up weight by 25%

58



Future solutions?

59

Business will need to act …

+ Out of adversity often comes innovation

+ Recycling will continue to grow

+ Repair, maintenance and re-use will take off

+ New business models are already emerging

- Suppliers retain ownership

- Suppliers incentivise take back of products for re-use or

remanufacture

- Leasing

- Buying what you need (heat and light not energy)

- Buying an output not a product (amount of metal cleaned not

amount o f solvent used)

+ Closed Loop systems in EU (and UK) 60



And how far could it go?

+ Lets stop exporting raw materials worth money!

- Rare earth metals

- Recyclables

- SRD / RDF

+ Lets look at this holistically

- We have an energy crisis

- We need to generate jobs

- We have potentially valuable raw materials that we export

+ Lets think UK and lets make it happen

- Needs strong Government leadership

- Needs brave industrialists

- Needs a fully engaged waste management sector 61

Urban mining offers rewards ….

+ Primary mining

- 5g per tonne of gold in ore

+ Urban Mining

- 250g per tonne of gold in PFC

circuit boards

- 350g per tonne of gold in cell

phones

+ Recycling makes sense!

+ And what about landfill mining for

old resource ‘reserves’?62



WRAP are now leading the charge!

63

2042 will offer us new hope ….

+ Waste management becomes Resource Management

- Comprehensive collections, EU process loops, greater

efficiencies

+ We focus on quality and critical substances not tonnage

+ Traditional scrap merchants replaced by hi-tech segregation &

reprocessing operations

+ Business risks must be seen as an opportunity for change

- Leasing models

- Closed loop recycling

- Deposit systems

- Design for recycling

64



Looking forward to 2042

65

A futures perspective?

+ HG Wells (1898)– The Time Machine & War of the Worlds

+ Fritz Lang (1927) – Metropolis

+ Aldous Huxley (1932) – Brave New World

+ Isaac Asimov (1950s) – Robot Laws & Psychohistory

+ Gene Roddenberry (1960s) - Star Trek

+ Pierre Boule (1963) - Planet of the Apes

+ John Christopher (1967) - The Tripods

+ Harry Harrison (1968) – More Room! More Room!

+ Arthur C Clarke (1968) – 2001, 2010, 2064, 3001

+ George Lucas (1970s) - Star Wars

+ Philip K Dick (1972) - Bladerunner

+ Richard Fleischer (1973) - Soylent Green

+ Michael Anderson (1976) – Logans Run (set in 2274)

+ Terry Nation (1970s) – Blakes 7

+ Wachowski Brothers (1999) – The Matrix et al

66



Dystopian futures ….

+ High rise, pollution, overcrowding ….

+ Crime, famine, war, resource scarcity …. 67 68



69

"Soon they'll be breeding us like cattle! You've got to warn "Soon they'll be breeding us like cattle! You've got to warn "Soon they'll be breeding us like cattle! You've got to warn "Soon they'll be breeding us like cattle! You've got to warn everyoneeveryoneeveryoneeveryoneand and and and tell them! tell them! tell them! tell them! SoylentSoylentSoylentSoylent Green is made of people! Green is made of people! Green is made of people! Green is made of people!

You've You've You've You've got to tell them! got to tell them! got to tell them! got to tell them! SoylentSoylentSoylentSoylent Green is PeopleGreen is PeopleGreen is PeopleGreen is People!”!”!”!” 70



Utopia or Dystopia?

+ Which future scenario do you want?

- Which do you believe will a become reality?

+ No change

- Waste arisings stabilise, markets issues continue, consumerism....

+ Utopia

- Modern, clean, waste free?

+ Dystopia

- Revolution, apocalyptic, breakdown of social order etc.

+ Sci-Fi favours dystopia....

71

What future?

+ Accept that:

- Waste is an inevitable by-product of society

- There will always be waste products from our way of life and

our consumer choice

+ However, we are facing daunting challenges:

- Climate change

- Sea level rise

- Resource scarcity

- Population overcrowding

- Social unrest

+ New systems will develop - They must develop ….

72



So what will we be discussing in 2042?

73

Landfill bans, Energy concerns, Land values, Personal responsibility,

Resource scarcity, process efficiency, money, resource management …



75But only if it is efficient and offers value for money!

HGV Drivers of the Future (MCIWM)

76



77

Strategy development in 2042

+ Defra and DECC align energy

security & resource

management policies

+ DCLG is ‘bought out’ by Defra

and local policies become local

+ BIS and DEFRA drive home their

Resource Security Action Plan

+ Rise of nationalist tendencies as

resource risks lead to a number

of regional wars

- Water, Rare earth metals, Plastics

+ UK Government replaced by pan

European policy agendas 78



God bless global God bless global God bless global God bless global warming..... warming..... warming..... warming.....

I thought I thought I thought I thought I I I I would would would would be stuck on ice for be stuck on ice for be stuck on ice for be stuck on ice for another another another another 30 30 30 30 years!years!years!years!

Will Ernie get his answer – what is MSW?

79

We have the technology…

+ This is an ‘engineering’ approach to our problems....

- This is what we hear in classic Sci-Fi shows

+ But Waste Management is not a purely engineering

discipline….

- It is far more complicated than building a rocket!

+ It is a inter-related economic, social and cultural issue,

complicated by emotions and media, that can only be

addressed by understanding and working with society…

- Understanding is the critical issue

- We must embrace this if we are to shape the future80



Waste & Resource Management

+ 2042 will witness a greater harmony between resource and

waste policy and practice

- Eco-parks, Renewable energy & heat production

- Closed loop recycling, Landfill mining

+ There will still be a role for local authority waste managers and

waste management companies

- Consultants too (decision-making will be hard and resource slim)

+ But industry is where the biggest changes will take place

- Design for segregation & recycling

- Repair and re-use programmes

- Leasing programmes

- Many new entrants to the sector – good news for CIWM!81

A role for the CIWM?

+ CIWM UK grows in importance

- Membership numbers rising across the UK

- New sectors turning to CIWM for advice and

direction

- UK Government listens (more often)

- International agencies look to the UK for best

practice

- A crop of new resource managers leave

University courses to take up critical roles in our

new evolving sector …

+ CIWM SW still going strong

- Terry March has retired once or twice more but

is still attending meetings 82



A new hope for civilisation?

“A lot has changed in the past 300

years. People are no longer

obsessed with the accumulation of

‘things.’ We have eliminated

hunger, want, the need for

possessions. We’ve grown out of our

infancy.”

Captain Jean Luc Picard

83

And finally ….

+ According to Arthur C. Clarke "any sufficiently advanced

technology is indistinguishable from magic"

- perhaps we have not found the solution to our social problem?

84



85

The last slide … promise!

Dr Adam Read

Global Practice Director

Waste Management & Resource

Efficiency

+44 (0) 7968 707 239

[email protected]

www.aeat.co.uk

Catch me over lunch …

86

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