future fuel technology scenario and roadmapping for asia-pacific

Future Fuel Technology Scenario and Roadmapping for Asia-Pacific

Nares Damrongchai and Greg Tegart

APEC Center for Technology Foresight

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Future Fuel TechnologyFuture Fuel Technology

BackgroundBackground

Typical infrastructure lifetimes, which are a factor in the rate at which new technologies enter the economy

Source: Facts and Trends to 2050 – energy and climate change, WBCSD



The Hubbert Peak according to ASPO



Different scenarios on oil depletion



Changes in our atmosphere are already underway


IntroductionIntroductionForesighting Future Fuel Technology – the project

• A project of the APEC Industrial Science and Technology Working Group (ISTWG) in collaboration with the APEC Energy Working Group

• Proposed by the APEC Center for Technology Foresight, with co-ownership and strong support from

– National Metal and Materials Technology Center (MTEC), Thailand

– Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), Chinese Taipei

– Bureau of Energy, Chinese Taipei

– Office of National Science Advisor, Canada

– Industry Canada

– National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan


IntroductionIntroductionScope and focus

• An APEC-wide foresight project covering the whole Asia-Asia-Pacific regionPacific region

• To examine rapidly emerging technologies for fuel for transportation and stationary energy production

–Hydrogen–biofuels–conventional and unconventional hydrocarbons

• Vision stretching to 2030


IntroductionIntroductionThe Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region


Project overviewProject overview

Recommendations for APEC

Recommendations for APEC

Krabi Vancouver PingTung Chiangmai

2004 2005 2006

•Core information•Plausible pathways•Technological gaps

Economy-level implementationEconomy-level implementation

Aiming for energy security

•Possible and plausible future eventsgoals

methodology

timeline

outcomes

Scenarios(vision & goals)

Technology roadmaps

(robust options & linkages)

Final symposium

(public consultation)


Implementation – Stage 1Implementation – Stage 1

War of resources

War of resources

The 7-km Island

disaster

The 7-km Island

disaster

Back to the future

Back to the future

The six scenarios for 2030Sunny days are here to

stay

Sunny days are here to

stay

East Asian Union – the renewable fuel super

empire

East Asian Union – the renewable fuel super

empire

2030: The new reality

2030: The new reality

Energy securityEnergy securityemerges as the emerges as the

overarching issue overarching issue for APECfor APEC

Web-based survey to gather initial information and provoke interest among experts to participate in the process

Position Papers written and posted on website

Scenario 2030 Workshop 56

experts from 11 economies gathered in Krabi, Thailand during Dec 13-15, 2004 to examine the issues and highlight R&D need, government policies and actions through scenario writing process



Technology Roadmaps (TRMs) derived from the Scenario 2030

Workshop to demonstrate pathways

that APEC members can cooperate

for possible fuel development in the

APEC region.

The TRM Workshops were held in:

– Vancouver, Canada in 27-29 April

2005 (57 experts, 10 economies)

– Pingtung, Chinese Taipei in 10-12

August 2005 (48 experts, 11

economies)

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NowNow FutureFuture



The Future Fuel TRM Architecture

• Covers all dimensions of fuel– Trends and Drivers

– Barriers (system/ infrastructure/technology)

– Process and Products

– Resources needed

• Relevance of individual fuel roadmaps with each other – Linkages

– Integrations

Supra-economy &intergovernmental

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Technol

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Hydrogen

biofuels

Unconventionalhydrocarbons



The Integrated Future Fuel Roadmap

LIQUID FUELS (conventional oilbitumen and heavy oil)

Electricity AndHeat

2005 2010 2030

Biofuels GTL CG

GAS FUELS

Electricity and Heat from renewable and gas fuels

OIL BIOMASSNGHydrogen

Sta

tion

ary

Tra

nsp

ort

atio

n

2020

LNG

Renewable and Alternate

CoalGasification

Coal bed methaneGas Hydrates


Post-foresight continuing engagementPost-foresight continuing engagement

Collaborative projects– Clean coal technology (China)– Flexible fuel car/electric car (USA/Australia)– Fuel processing and reforming technology for practical fuels to hydrogen for

fuel cell application (Thailand, China etc.)– Storage technology e.g. battery (Thailand, C. Taipei)– (Companies’) proprietary technologies could be an issue to overcome– Cellulosic technology (biotechnology) for ethanol (Canada)– Database and Inventory (Australia)– Int’l study on drivers for acceptance of ethanol fuel (Australia)– H2 code and standard, energy efficiency standard– Harmonization of fuel biodiesel specification (Thailand, with EWG)– Implementation and Facilitation Assistance Team (IFAT) within APEC EWG

e.g. on nuclear power– Standardization of fuel related-terminology– Demand forecast, life cycle analysis (USA)– Solar energy TRM (Thailand, Chinese Taipei, etc)– Establish fuel blending strategy (USA)– National-level technology roadmap for biofuels (Thailand, by MTEC)


Lessons learnedLessons learned

– The importance of some sort of “urgency”– Social infrastructure (the networks)– High-level commitment– Involvement of decision-makers throughout the process– Visioning and goal setting– Integration into broader policy strategy– Clear link to decision makers – Possibilities for iterations should be investigated– Oblication to monitor the implementation and to evaluate

the outcomes, uptake and impacts

APEC Center for Technology ForesightEmail: [email protected]: http://www.apecforesight.org

Key success factors and cautions

future fuel technology scenario and roadmapping for asia-pacific

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