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Future Force Design:the importance of social, cultural, human and
political factors
Chris Manning
UNCLASSIFIED
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Outline
Call to arms Background
– Modelling Complex Warfighting, Strategic Research Initiative
– Strategic Response 4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty
Collaboration opportunities– “Complex systems design”
Conclusion
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Call to arms
Drivers– First Principles Review– Force Design Process– Capability Life Cycle
Changes– Future Operating Environment and trends in future warfare
• Emerging technology• Contested urban environments• Robotic and autonomous systems
Given the rapid change to a highly networked cyber world, how does the ADF ensure it isn’t optimising for the wrong war?
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Creating the Future ForcePREPARE AND EMPLOY THE
CURRENT FORCE
DESIGN AND DEVELOP THE
FUTURE FORCE
CONNECTED THROUGH
TIME
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Modelling Complex Warfighting (MCW) DST Group is launching the MCW Strategic Research
Initiative. It forms part of the CDS-sponsored strategic research
program. It draws on JOAD’s operations analysis capabilities and
experience supporting individual domains. Through partnership with academia and industry the SRI will
revolutionise the application of OA to future force design.
Revolutionise Operations
Analysis
Enhance Force Design
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Modelling Complex Warfighting Research Themes
Scientific methods to enable robust Force Design decisions to produce a resilient force through the understanding and management of
uncertainty in Defence.
Methods to enable understanding of properties of the joint force emerging as a result of nonlinear interactions between the many constituent
elements.
Novel modelling and simulation techniques to enable exploration of whole-of-force warfighting concepts and force options.
Conquering Uncertainty
Synthesis of analytical and simulation results to support development of a joint force which is integrated by design.
Modelling complexity
Knowledge synthesis
Innovative simulations
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MCW SRI: Strategic Responses (SR)
Current Force Future Force
Conquering Uncertainty
Modelling complexity
Knowledge synthesis
Innovative simulations
SR 5: Capability decision evaluation under uncertainty
SR 6: Concepts for complexity-enabled warfare
SR 2: Simulation-based concept exploration
SR7: Modelling unknowns
SR 4: Modelling complex human systems
SR 3: Force design data life cycle
SR 1: Machine discovered behaviour
0 10 20Time Horizon (years)
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Holistic analysis including social, cultural, human and political factors
Comprehensive understanding, impacts and insights of force design options and effects
Aims– Develop suite of methods to analyse and synthesise
uncertainty of future operating environment and force design
– Framework for operationalisation of factors and inclusion in force design process
SR4: Modelling Complex Human Systems under Uncertainty
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Complex Systems Design
Complex Systems Design is an “umbrella” term for candidate tools that could be applied to Land Force Design Ranging from
– Interpret/develop strategy and guidance (SODA)– Emergent design (Systemic Design)– Iterative design (Adversarial Scenario Analysis)
Bridging the gap from– Understanding the environment (Futures & Scenario
Analysis)– Evaluating (Wargaming and Red Teaming)
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An Example
Enable the Land Force to effectively operate in an irreducibly uncertain future.– Transform the Land Force to avoid strategic shock– Build and test future Land Force in a Joint context– Ensure the combined arms team of the future is a robust, adaptive
and potent force optimised for sustained close combat– Support development of Land Force Strategy and Concepts– Support the development of Land Force structures– Understand the future land operating environment to hedge against
unacceptable risk– Enable more informed decision making– Partnership for conceptual analysis
• ADF provide SMEs (creative thinkers) and DST in collaboration with industry/academia provide framework to apply S&T rigour (lead analysis)
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Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)
Proposed design principles– Adopt distributed operations framework– Embrace expeditionary philosophy– Seek independent self-contained combat teams– Embrace unconventional warfare/irregular warfare– Embrace full multi-dimension manoeuvre– Employ reach back as a key enabler to offset “Light”– Effects driven vs Terrain focussed– “Whilst light, carry a big stick”– Emphasize Phase 0 operations to shape the Battlespace early
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Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)
Codename: FireAnt– A mindset for design of future structures
and operating concepts– a small, agile, swarming force that would
strike terror into adversaries even if they were larger
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Novel and Creative options (Land Force examples)
Develop concepts that inform novel ways to fight and integrate Information Warfare into the broader operational campaign– Design force options that enhance the Future Force’s ability
to• shape and influence• disrupt adversaries’ will to fight• defend against and exploit emerging technologies (eg social media,
robotic and autonomous systems, precision strike)
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Applied Research
Use CSD methods to develop and propose force structures and concepts designed to operate in a complex and uncertain future
Apply CSD to explore creative and novel options for Land Force Design
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Collaboration Opportunities
Aims1. Develop “design” capability and holistic analytical
methodologies for whole of force2. Embed, evaluate and refine these approaches within the
Defence environment (support contestability focus)Expected outcomes
– Improve scientific rigour applied to Defence problems and achieve better outcomes for Defence
– Enhance engagement and create opportunities for partnership– Support publication of research outcomes– Further development and application of methods and techniques– Improve understanding and integration of interplay between non-
material (social, cultural, human and political) and material (technological and infrastructure) factors to better inform force design
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Conclusion
Keen to expand the range of methods available– Engage with us beyond initial candidates (Systemic Design
and SODA) for Complex Systems Design
Timeframe– 3-5 year research proposal– But want outcomes immediately 6-12 months
Learn by doing– apply existing methods to new areas or develop new
methods– Build skills through practical application to real Defence
problems (Force Design)