Future Diet Scenarios and Their Effect on Regional and Global Land Use

Jay S. Gregg Anna Hvid

Technical University of Denmark Climate Center, Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy

Historical Trends in Food Consumption }  Question: What is the effect of diet on land use? (and

biomass availability, biomass and food price, and land use change emissions?)

}  Part 1. Historical Trends }  1. Total Caloric Intake }  2. Percentage of Animal Products in the Diet }  3. The Developed vs. Developing World

}  Part II. Future Scenarios

Method }  1. Analyze FAOSTAT Food Supply for all countries

1961-2007 }  2. Aggregate FAOSTAT data into GCAM regions and

categories }  3. Develop Scenarios }  4. Calibrate GCAM to match historic FAO data

}  adjust animal efficiencies and non-food demand of vegetal products

}  5. Change income elasticities for each GCAM food category to achieve desired scenario by 2095 (linear approach)

Global Trends

}  Have not changed much in the last 50 years

}  Overall food demand has increased

}  Animal product demand has remained relatively constant

Veg Veg

Animal Animal

Veg Veg

Grain Grain

AP AP

raw data source: FAOSTAT

Developed Regions

}  Animal product demand tends to decrease as a proportion of diet

Veg Veg

Veg Veg

Animal Animal

Animal Animal

Developing Regions

}  Animal product demand tends to increase as a proportion of diet; but not always (e.g., Africa, India)

}  Vegetable demand also increases Veg

Veg

Veg

Veg

Grain Grain

Grain Grain

AP AP

AP AP

raw data source: FAOSTAT

Total Caloric Intake vs. Wealth

raw data source: FAOSTAT

Percentage Animal Products vs. Wealth

raw data source: FAOSTAT

Regression Slopes

total (kcal/cap/day) vs. log(per cap GDP)

Protein (g/cap/day) vs log(per cap GDP)

Fat (g/cap/day) vs log(per cap GDP)

Animal Products (% of diet by cal) vs. log(per cap GDP)

1960s 346 14.0 23.3 8.8

1970s 340 13.9 23.3 8.2

1980s 366 15.4 25.3 8.1

1990s 356 14.5 23.3 7.1

2001-2007 346 14.4 23.4 6.8

1961-2007 358 14.6 23.9 7.6

Summary of Historic Trends

}  Total calories, protein, and fat demand increased with increasing wealth; these relationships have not changed through time

}  Animal products also have this relationship, but it has been weakening through time }  Developed countries are reducing or plateau-ing their animal consumption }  Developing countries are increasing animal consumption, but also vegetable consumption

Scenarios for Future Diet }  1. No change in per capita consumption from 2005 }  2. Evolve to a Indian Diet

}  ~2500 kcal/cap/day }  10% animal products

}  3. Evolve to a American/Western European Diet }  ~3500-4000 kcal/cap/day }  ~35-40% animal products }  small price elasticity to allow model to solve

}  4. Evolve to a “Healthy” diet (defined by Harvard/ WHO) }  ~2800 kcal/cap/day }  specific dietary consumption recommendations (high fruit and vegetable- MiscCrop) }  fat and protein targets

}  5. Projected trend 1 }  Extrapolation of regional trends with relatively lower meat consumption }  Per capita vegetal consumption unchanged

}  6. Projected trend 2 }  Extrapolation of regional trends with relatively higher meat consumption }  Per capita vegetal consumption unchanged

Example Diet Scenarios

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

kcal/cap/day

ZZOther  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

SheepGoat  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

Poultry  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Pork  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

Dairy  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Beef  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

MiscCrop  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

SugarCrop  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

OilCrop  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

OtherGrain  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Wheat  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Rice  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

Corn  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

kcal/cap/day

ZZOther  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

SheepGoat  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

Poultry  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Pork  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

Dairy  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Beef  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

MiscCrop  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

SugarCrop  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

OilCrop  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

OtherGrain  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Wheat  Total   (kcal/cap/day)

Rice  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

Corn  Total  (kcal/cap/day)

Healthy Diet High Animal Productions “American/Western Europe”

Example Global Land Allocation Results

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

1400000019

9019

9520

0020

0520

1020

1520

2020

2520

3020

3520

4020

4520

5020

5520

6020

6520

7020

7520

8020

8520

9020

95

kHa

biomass

Wheat

SugarCrop

Rice

OtherGrain

OilCrop

MiscCrop

Corn

FiberCrop

OtherArableLand

FodderCrop

Pasture

UnmanagedPasture

GrassLand

ShrubLand

Forest

UnmanagedForest

UrbanLand

RockIceDesert

Tundra

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

2095

kHa

biomass

Wheat

SugarCrop

Rice

OtherGrain

OilCrop

MiscCrop

Corn

FiberCrop

OtherArableLand

FodderCrop

Pasture

UnmanagedPasture

GrassLand

ShrubLand

Forest

UnmanagedForest

UrbanLand

RockIceDesert

Tundra

High Animal Product “American/West European”

Low Animal Product “Indian”

Conclusion }  Assumptions about how diets around the world will

develop have a large effect on global land use and biomass availability.