FutureCBC Food Security 2040

FUTURE TRENDS, RISK, CHANGE MANAGEMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY

25th March 2009, North Wales Conference Centre Llandudno

1. FOOD SECURITY 2040

disruption to food supplies from centralised distribution centres.

vegetable, fish, meat and milk suppliers struggling to cope with high haulage costs.

unreliable supplies of fuel and high prices

undersupply of food supplies from abroad and problems with food quality

climate chain impacts on food supply chain.

challenge to local partnership under duty of well-being.

statutory food security plan required

2. AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY 2040

agricultural community struggling to respond to demand for food

decline in number of working farms and agricultural skills and workforce shortage

difficulty maintaining business due to high and insecure energy supply

local supply of food to retailers and public bodies slowly growing

climate change increased growing season, crop range and variety

water supply problems – conservation needed

3. ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL TRENDS

high food prices causing food poverty in poorer areas of FutureCBC

empty shelves from just in time systems causing civil disturbance

early signs of local economy responding through localised supply chains

high costs and supply issues forced food retailers out of business

2008 recession still affecting competitiveness.

failure of pension funds

climate-induced migration =6,000 additional migrants over the next 5 years local services stretched

4. CRUNCH ISSUES FOR PARTNERS

food procurement for school meals, meals on wheels, day centres increasingly difficult

nutritional problems in school children and elderly in some parts of community

obesity timebomb impacting on health services in FutureCBC –

30% of population obese with 40% suffering from diabetes

health services struggling to finance demand

food security plan required

5. QUESTIONS AND PREPAREDNESS?

1. List the big questions which come out of this scenario for the FutureCBC partnership? What are the top five priority issues you have identified?

Long term (5):

Short term (5): 

2. Assume that FutureCBC wouldn’t have been so unprepared  for this scenario.

What actions might have been implemented before 2040 to reduce exposure to the risks in this scenario?

6. INFORMATION, RISK, SUCCESS PARTNERSHIP?

Think about the following ‘change management ‘ issues for the partnership: 

getting a better understanding of impacts of the scenario (what sort of information might you need?)

which ‘business as usual activities’ are most vulnerable are they fit for purpose? implications for risk management and emergency planning? what does success look like on food security and how might you measure it? the role of the Partnership and the changing relationships to tackle food security

 

7. RESOURCES, ACTION, POLICY RESPONSIBILITY?

aligning organisational resources to deal with food security and building capacity in the partnership – how might you approach this? What practical things can you do immediately to ease the situation? What long term measures and policies might you develop to ensure food security?  How might this scenario change your organisation’s role within the Partnership?

8. MESSAGES FOR PLENARY

What are the 5 key pieces of learning for the group from this exercise?  

What immediate actions can be carried out by members of the Forum to increase preparedness for food security in the future?

Learning1.2.3.4.5.

Actions1.2.3.