Future Airspace Strategy Brief Strategic Aviation Special Interest Group - SASIG

26 November 2010

The FAS concept

• FAS is a strategic framework that will pull together a complex and diverse set of policy and regulatory issues that will enable judgements to be made that are properly underpinned by cohesive and cogent policy formulation

• This will, in turn, enable air navigation service providers (such as NATS) to create an airspace structure that is fit for the future, effective, efficient and ensures that the UK meets any international obligations that are placed upon it

• It is not a detailed implementation plan, although such plans will be driven by the outcome of the FAS work

• FAS is a strategic framework that will pull together a complex and diverse set of policy and regulatory issues that will enable judgements to be made that are properly underpinned by cohesive and cogent policy formulation

• This will, in turn, enable air navigation service providers (such as NATS) to create an airspace structure that is fit for the future, effective, efficient and ensures that the UK meets any international obligations that are placed upon it

• It is not a detailed implementation plan, although such plans will be driven by the outcome of the FAS work

What is FAS?What is FAS?

FAS analysis concluded a flexible, robust strategy is required that is responsive to Government policy on aviation

The Context For Developing the FAS

The FAS Development Programme

The FAS Development Programme

Forecast growth in demand for aviation

Forecast growth in demand for aviation

Transport Select CommitteeTransport Select Committee

South east airspace capacity Issues

South east airspace capacity Issues

Need for coordination across all parties (civil & military) investing

in / impacted by changes

Need for coordination across all parties (civil & military) investing

in / impacted by changes

Need for a performance/efficency based approach for assessing and

implementing changes

Need for a performance/efficency based approach for assessing and

implementing changes

Need to modernise the airspace system, optimising outputs from

European developments

Need to modernise the airspace system, optimising outputs from

European developments

Initial Impetus

Broader context

The FAS sets out the strategy for modernising the UK airspace system answering the question " "How can we make the most efficient use of airspace, to meet users requirements, within future constraints?"

What is the FAS about

In scope for the FASIn scope for the FAS

• Maximising efficiency of the system within safety and environmental constraints

• Integration with SES II and SESAR

• Balancing demand for airspace capacity with supply - when and where it occurs

• Setting out the characteristics and benefits of the future airspace system

• Roadmap for implementation of changes.

• Maximising efficiency of the system within safety and environmental constraints

• Integration with SES II and SESAR

• Balancing demand for airspace capacity with supply - when and where it occurs

• Setting out the characteristics and benefits of the future airspace system

• Roadmap for implementation of changes.

Areas not in scope but key to delivering overall improvements

Areas not in scope but key to delivering overall improvements

• The efficiency of airports’ operations (scheduling, ground movements etc.)

• Government policy on airport development

• A detailed plan for implementation of the proposed changes

• Alignment of industry investment plans to implement changes

• Mechanisms to track the overall performance of the system as changes are implemented.

• The efficiency of airports’ operations (scheduling, ground movements etc.)

• Government policy on airport development

• A detailed plan for implementation of the proposed changes

• Alignment of industry investment plans to implement changes

• Mechanisms to track the overall performance of the system as changes are implemented.

UK Airspace requirements for the future and the FAS Vision

The FAS Vision

UK Airspace Requires Modernisation to:

UK Airspace Requires Modernisation to:

•Deal with current hotspots of congestion

•Enable and facilitate continuous improvement in safety

•Implement SES proposals

•Take advantage of technological developments to improve efficiency

•Be responsive to Government policy and decision-making

•Ensure access to sufficient airspace for non CAT users

•Provide flexibility within the system to enable future development and advancements

•Deal with current hotspots of congestion

•Enable and facilitate continuous improvement in safety

•Implement SES proposals

•Take advantage of technological developments to improve efficiency

•Be responsive to Government policy and decision-making

•Ensure access to sufficient airspace for non CAT users

•Provide flexibility within the system to enable future development and advancements

FAS VisionFAS Vision

Safe, efficient airspace, that has the capacity to meet reasonable

demand, balances the needs of all users and mitigates the impact of

aviation on the environment

Safe, efficient airspace, that has the capacity to meet reasonable

demand, balances the needs of all users and mitigates the impact of

aviation on the environment

Completed comprehensive draft of the FAS, to be refined and agreed by aviation stakeholders (Airports, Airlines, ANSPs, GA, NGOs etc)

Progress Update

Jun 09 to Oct 09

Stock-take of key issues/concepts

Jun 09 to Oct 09

Stock-take of key issues/concepts

Nov 09 to Nov 10

Produce draft for consultation

Nov 09 to Nov 10

Produce draft for consultation

1 Nov 10 to 7 Feb 11

StakeholderConsultation

1 Nov 10 to 7 Feb 11

StakeholderConsultation

Refine strategy with stakeholders:•Gain industry buy-in and commitment•Demonstrate commercial feasibility and plan for implementation

Refine strategy with stakeholders:•Gain industry buy-in and commitment•Demonstrate commercial feasibility and plan for implementation

Draft strategy for airspace out to 2030:•Characteristics of 2030 airspace •Framework of potential changes•Priorities and risks

Draft strategy for airspace out to 2030:•Characteristics of 2030 airspace •Framework of potential changes•Priorities and risks

Captures what FAS seeks to address: •Demand/Supply•Safety•Technology & Ops.•Environment•Policy & Reg.

Captures what FAS seeks to address: •Demand/Supply•Safety•Technology & Ops.•Environment•Policy & Reg.

AFT 1 AFT 2

FAS proposes significant changes to modernise the way the UK’s airspace system operates over next 20 years, introducing greater flexibility, cooperation and systemisation

Characteristics of 2030 Airspace

Modernised 2030 Airspace SystemModernised 2030 Airspace System

Routeing based on ‘user preferred (4D) trajectories’Routeing based on ‘user preferred (4D) trajectories’

Flexible, often dynamic, management of the airspace structure through Joint and Integrated, Civil/Military operations

Flexible, often dynamic, management of the airspace structure through Joint and Integrated, Civil/Military operations

Greater cooperation and the increased use of systems and technology to safely manage additional complexity

Greater cooperation and the increased use of systems and technology to safely manage additional complexity

Simpler airspace structures, integrated across National and Functional Airspace Block (FAB) boundaries

Simpler airspace structures, integrated across National and Functional Airspace Block (FAB) boundaries

The ATM System

Communications

Navigation

Surveillance

ATM Capability

Airspace Structure

Communications

Navigation

Surveillance

ATM Capability

Airspace Structure

The overall airspace system can be separated into five areasThe overall airspace system can be separated into five areas

Example Road Map

2011 – 14:

•Navigation – Performance-based navigation implemented in the en-route environment.

•Surveillance - Wider adoption of Mode S and ADS B.

•Communication - Data-link introduced for standard messages and clearances.

•ATM Capability - Arrival Management tools implemented in some busy terminal operations.

•Airspace Structure - Introduce a common transition altitude in controlled airspace.

2011 – 14:

•Navigation – Performance-based navigation implemented in the en-route environment.

•Surveillance - Wider adoption of Mode S and ADS B.

•Communication - Data-link introduced for standard messages and clearances.

•ATM Capability - Arrival Management tools implemented in some busy terminal operations.

•Airspace Structure - Introduce a common transition altitude in controlled airspace.

2015 – 20:

•Navigation – Advanced RNP (part of SES II IR) allows aircraft to maintain the spacing during a turn.

•Surveillance – Move towards more cooperative solution ATC downloading data from the aircraft.

•Communication – Use of Data-link expanded to become primary method of communications.

•ATM Capability - Departure Management introduced. Arrival Management expands to point of departure.

•Airspace Structure - Expand free routeing / self separation areas to include lower flight levels.

2015 – 20:

•Navigation – Advanced RNP (part of SES II IR) allows aircraft to maintain the spacing during a turn.

•Surveillance – Move towards more cooperative solution ATC downloading data from the aircraft.

•Communication – Use of Data-link expanded to become primary method of communications.

•ATM Capability - Departure Management introduced. Arrival Management expands to point of departure.

•Airspace Structure - Expand free routeing / self separation areas to include lower flight levels.

2021 – 30:

•Navigation – Advanced RNP introduces vertical containment and 4D trajectory optimisation.

•Surveillance – Roll-out of Multi Static PSR to replace primary radar.

•ATM Capability – New tools to support 4D trajectory optimisation.

•Airspace Structure - Introduce dynamic (near real time) management of airspace structures.

2021 – 30:

•Navigation – Advanced RNP introduces vertical containment and 4D trajectory optimisation.

•Surveillance – Roll-out of Multi Static PSR to replace primary radar.

•ATM Capability – New tools to support 4D trajectory optimisation.

•Airspace Structure - Introduce dynamic (near real time) management of airspace structures.

Implementation of the changes set out in the FAS aim to deliver benefits in safety, capacity, the environment and cost effectiveness

Benefits

Safety Capacity Environmental Cost- Performance-based

navigation allows routes to be flown more accurately and consistently

- Building flexibility and resilience into the system reduces the occurrence of pinch points and high risk situations

- New communications, navigation and surveillance technology improves situational awareness of users and controllers

- Simplification of the airspace structure and classification reduces potential for errors, infringements and level busts

- Increased navigational accuracy enables closer spaced routes

- Introduction of free routeing, systemisation and ATM support tools enables higher volumes of traffic to be managed

- Flexible / dynamic structures accommodate demand when and where it occurs

- Reduced reliance on stack holding increases design freedom in the busy terminal airspace

- Integration of airspace through FABs mean interfaces are simpler and more efficient

- Access to sufficient airspace for non-CAT users

- Enabling more direct routes and optimal vertical profiles reduces GHG emissions

- Continuous climb and descent procedures reduce the total number of people impacted by aircraft noise

- FAB integration expands environmental benefits across state borders

- Reduced reliance on stack holding reduces GHG emissions from delays in the air

- Enabling more direct routes and optimal vertical profiles reduces fuel burn and costs

- Building flexibility and resilience into the system reduces delays that impose costs on users and suppliers of airspace

- Move to space-based navigation aids removes cost of maintaining and replacing ground infrastructure

- Common, simpler approaches to management and regulation through FAB integration reduces costs to users and regulators

- Alignment of strategies across different industry partners and across ANSPs allows for a seamless and more cost effective change process as different techniques are introduced

The scenarios aim to model future demand for airspace capacity under challenging circumstances against which the need for potential changes, and the effect they may have, can be tested

Airspace Demand Scenario

Key Caveats

•The scenarios modelled in FAS are not constructed to represent the most likely future demand for airspace capacity.

•They are indicative only and aim to satisfy two general tests, covering a range of (i) plausible but (ii) challenging futures against the demands of which it might be reasonable for the aviation industry to prepare.

•The scenario results highlight broadly where and when demand for airspace capacity may significantly exceed supply under the challenging assumptions made.

•The results will be used to guide, prompt and test the proposals developed in the FAS.

•The modelling is not designed to provide detailed answers on any one particular scenario.

•The modelling is not detailed implementation planning, which will need to be conducted by ANSPs in due course.

Scenario FAS0: Baseline case 2009 assumptionsAir Transport White Paper growth assumptions envisaged demand for airspace is driven primarily by expansion at Heathrow and Stansted.

Scenario FAS1: Growth Disseminates to South EastNo additional runways in the South East, smaller airports in the South East expanded to serve additional demand.

Scenario FAS2: Growth Disseminates to the Regions Smaller airports in the Regions expanded to serve additional demand.

Little divergence in results from each scenario. In all scenarios, we need to maximise airspace efficiency.

Overview of FAS Airspace Scenario Modelling

Airspace Demand Scenarios

FAS Document

FAS Document

Three PartsThree Parts

•Part 1 – What the FAS aims to consider, address and achieve.

•Part 2 – The high-level characteristics of the future airspace, framework of potential changes and associated benefits.

•Part 3 – Ensuring safe, balanced and effective decision-making and implementation.

•Part 1 – What the FAS aims to consider, address and achieve.

•Part 2 – The high-level characteristics of the future airspace, framework of potential changes and associated benefits.

•Part 3 – Ensuring safe, balanced and effective decision-making and implementation.

AppendicesAppendices

•App 1 – Future Growth in Demand for Airspace: Scenario Modelling Detail.

•App 2 – Technology and Operations Roadmap.

•App 3 – Performance-Based Navigation.

•App 4 – Environmental Metrics

•App 1 – Future Growth in Demand for Airspace: Scenario Modelling Detail.

•App 2 – Technology and Operations Roadmap.

•App 3 – Performance-Based Navigation.

•App 4 – Environmental Metrics

FAS Document

Synopsis of Key Points

Key PointsKey Points

A synopsis of the key points being considered in the FAS document are highlighted in bold blue and are summarised, along with a reference to the relevant paragraphs, in Table 9 at the end of the document. There are 68 items in the table.

A synopsis of the key points being considered in the FAS document are highlighted in bold blue and are summarised, along with a reference to the relevant paragraphs, in Table 9 at the end of the document. There are 68 items in the table.

Synopsis TableSynopsis Table

FAS Document

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions and RecommendationsConclusions and Recommendations

The conclusions and recommendations are highlighted in bold green as they appear in the body of the FAS document and are summarised, along with a reference to the relevant paragraph, in the table at the end of the document. There are 64 items in the table

The conclusions and recommendations are highlighted in bold green as they appear in the body of the FAS document and are summarised, along with a reference to the relevant paragraph, in the table at the end of the document. There are 64 items in the table

Recommendations TableRecommendations Table

FAS Document

Risks

Risks to ImplementationRisks to Implementation

Risks associated with the implementation of the FAS are highlighted in bold red in the text of the document. A full list of risks associated with the FAS are in the table at the end of the document. Once the FAS is agreed, work will be needed to make a high-level assessment of risk proximity, probability and impact followed by identification of appropriate mitigations. There are currently 35 items in the table

Risks associated with the implementation of the FAS are highlighted in bold red in the text of the document. A full list of risks associated with the FAS are in the table at the end of the document. Once the FAS is agreed, work will be needed to make a high-level assessment of risk proximity, probability and impact followed by identification of appropriate mitigations. There are currently 35 items in the table

Risk TableRisk Table

Consultation 1 November 2010 to 7 February 2011

Consultation

CAA Webpage for FASCAA Webpage for FAS

•Full draft FAS document

•Consultation document with questions

•Airspace for Tomorrow 1 and 2

•E-mail address for questions and replies FAS@caa.co.uk

www.caa.co.uk/FAS

E-mail:FAS@caa.co.uk

•Full draft FAS document

•Consultation document with questions

•Airspace for Tomorrow 1 and 2

•E-mail address for questions and replies FAS@caa.co.uk

www.caa.co.uk/FAS

E-mail:FAS@caa.co.uk

Consultation DocumentConsultation Document

Consultation Questions

•Stakeholders are free to provide general, or specific, comments on the draft in addition to the 14 questions asked in the consultation document.

•Consultations Questions are set out at paragraph 6 of the Consultation Document under the headings of:

GeneralPolicy and RegulationTechnology and OperationsEnvironmentSafetyCapacity and Demand

•Stakeholders are free to provide general, or specific, comments on the draft in addition to the 14 questions asked in the consultation document.

•Consultations Questions are set out at paragraph 6 of the Consultation Document under the headings of:

GeneralPolicy and RegulationTechnology and OperationsEnvironmentSafetyCapacity and Demand

Consultation QuestionsConsultation Questions

Consultation

•Once the consultation is closed the responses will be considered.

•The draft FAS document updated accordingly.

•Aim to produce and publish the Future Airspace Strategy in the second quarter of 2011.

•Should the consultation responses result in the requirement for a fundamental change then further consultation may needed.

•Once the consultation is closed the responses will be considered.

•The draft FAS document updated accordingly.

•Aim to produce and publish the Future Airspace Strategy in the second quarter of 2011.

•Should the consultation responses result in the requirement for a fundamental change then further consultation may needed.

Consultation – Next StepsConsultation – Next Steps

Consultation

Aviation stakeholders are invited to provide written response to this consultation by 7 February 2011 by e-mail to: FAS@caa.co.uk, or in writing to:

Tony RapsonPolicy CoordinatorDirectorate of Airspace PolicyCAA House45 – 59 KingswayLondon WC2B 6TE

For more information call: 020 7453 6522 or e-mail FAS@caa.co.uk or tony.rapson@caa.co.uk

CONSULTATION DOCUMENTS CAN BE FOUND AT: www.caa.co.uk/FAS

Aviation stakeholders are invited to provide written response to this consultation by 7 February 2011 by e-mail to: FAS@caa.co.uk, or in writing to:

Tony RapsonPolicy CoordinatorDirectorate of Airspace PolicyCAA House45 – 59 KingswayLondon WC2B 6TE

For more information call: 020 7453 6522 or e-mail FAS@caa.co.uk or tony.rapson@caa.co.uk

CONSULTATION DOCUMENTS CAN BE FOUND AT: www.caa.co.uk/FAS

Consultation – Next StepsConsultation – Next Steps

General

•The FAS is predicated on modernisation of the UK airspace system – implementing new operational procedures, enabled by technology, to increase the safety and efficiency of ATM. In your opinion what are the main drivers and priorities for the modernisation of the National ATM system that should be considered?

•From your perspective what are the most significant risks associated with the modernisation of the airspace system to deliver safety, efficiency and environmental benefits?

•From your perspective what are the most likely benefits to be delivered from the modernisation of the airspace system and what should the relative priorities be?

•The FAS is predicated on modernisation of the UK airspace system – implementing new operational procedures, enabled by technology, to increase the safety and efficiency of ATM. In your opinion what are the main drivers and priorities for the modernisation of the National ATM system that should be considered?

•From your perspective what are the most significant risks associated with the modernisation of the airspace system to deliver safety, efficiency and environmental benefits?

•From your perspective what are the most likely benefits to be delivered from the modernisation of the airspace system and what should the relative priorities be?

Consultation Questions – GeneralConsultation Questions – General

Policy and Regulation

•What are your views on the European and wider International issues of airspace design and relative importance as set out in the Future Airspace Strategy? •What are your views on the European and wider International issues of airspace design and relative importance as set out in the Future Airspace Strategy?

Consultation Questions – Policy and RegulationConsultation Questions – Policy and Regulation

•The FAS aims to optimise the efficiency of the airspace system that may benefit one airport more than another. What are you views of a strategy that may need to balance such benefits and disbenefits and how do you think the relative merits should be evaluated?

•What challenges do you envisage arising out of the introduction of greater airspace sharing, in comparison to the current rigid route structure, that will enable equitable access to future airspace that balances the needs of all users?

•The FAS proposes significant changes to the UK airspace system. How could the current process for airspace change be strengthened to support a more robust and efficient appraisal, consultation and implementation of the proposals set out in the Strategy?

•The FAS aims to optimise the efficiency of the airspace system that may benefit one airport more than another. What are you views of a strategy that may need to balance such benefits and disbenefits and how do you think the relative merits should be evaluated?

•What challenges do you envisage arising out of the introduction of greater airspace sharing, in comparison to the current rigid route structure, that will enable equitable access to future airspace that balances the needs of all users?

•The FAS proposes significant changes to the UK airspace system. How could the current process for airspace change be strengthened to support a more robust and efficient appraisal, consultation and implementation of the proposals set out in the Strategy?

Consultation Questions – Technology and OperationsAirspace

Consultation Questions – Technology and OperationsAirspace

Tech and Ops - Airspace

Tech and Ops - CNS

•What factors do you consider particularly important when assessing the proposed increased use of future Communication, Navigation and Surveillance technologies and infrastructure that underpins many of the aspirations in the FAS? How should the CAA ensure the evolution towards this technological capability is timely and coherent?

•What factors do you consider particularly important when assessing the proposed increased use of future Communication, Navigation and Surveillance technologies and infrastructure that underpins many of the aspirations in the FAS? How should the CAA ensure the evolution towards this technological capability is timely and coherent?

Consultation Questions – Technology and OperationsCNS

Consultation Questions – Technology and OperationsCNS

Environment

•How would you assess the current emphasis on environmental matters within the FAS in relation to safety and capacity?

•How should the FAS address the trade-off between different types of environmental impacts as set out in the document?

•How would you assess the current emphasis on environmental matters within the FAS in relation to safety and capacity?

•How should the FAS address the trade-off between different types of environmental impacts as set out in the document?

Consultation Questions – EnvironmentConsultation Questions – Environment

Safety

•Do you have any suggestions as to the safety protocols that should apply to the FAS to achieve the fundamental principle that, as an absolute minimum, safety levels must be at least maintained in making changes that benefit other aspects of the system and, where possible, changes should contribute directly to the development of a fundamentally safer system?

•What are your views on whether or not the FAS should attempt to set targets against national safety KPIs for either all UK airspace, or specific hotspots as determined by UK operators and air navigation service providers, commensurate with maintaining a ‘Just Culture’?

•Do you believe that the CAA has the appropriate policies and tools to regulate new concepts and technologies emerging out of the SES initiative and, in particular, SESAR?

•Do you have any suggestions as to the safety protocols that should apply to the FAS to achieve the fundamental principle that, as an absolute minimum, safety levels must be at least maintained in making changes that benefit other aspects of the system and, where possible, changes should contribute directly to the development of a fundamentally safer system?

•What are your views on whether or not the FAS should attempt to set targets against national safety KPIs for either all UK airspace, or specific hotspots as determined by UK operators and air navigation service providers, commensurate with maintaining a ‘Just Culture’?

•Do you believe that the CAA has the appropriate policies and tools to regulate new concepts and technologies emerging out of the SES initiative and, in particular, SESAR?

Consultation Questions – SafetyConsultation Questions – Safety

•How do you view the conceptual thinking on airspace efficiency as articulated in the FAS draft, as the basis of a way forward? •How do you view the conceptual thinking on airspace efficiency as articulated in the FAS draft, as the basis of a way forward?

Consultation Questions – Capacity and DemandConsultation Questions – Capacity and Demand

Capacity and Demand