future agenda - future of aging - emerging view - sept 2015
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Aging | The Emerging View Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Around the World
Context Global aging and demographic shi=s were key themes to emerge from the first Future Agenda program. Since then, the topic has grown in recogni0on, focus and concern for a wide range of individuals, organiza0ons and governments.
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so all can be beJer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beJer prepared for the future.
Future Agenda 1.0 Top Insights for 2020 From the 2010 program, 52 key insights on the next decade were shared widely and have been extensively used by organiza0ons around the world.
Aging was a key issue to emerge in 2010 and has grown since.
Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda program engaged a wide range of views in
25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 25 TOPICS 40 COUNTRIES 100 WORKSHOPS 2500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program is taking place during 2015 and has been addressing 21 topics via 100 events in 50 ci0es in 40 countries in partnership with around 50 core hosts.
Ageing
CiOes
Company
ConnecOvity
Data
EducaOon
Energy
Food
Government
Health
Learning
Loyalty
Payments
Privacy
Resources
Transport
Travel
Water
Wealth
Work
Aging2.0 Partnership Discussions on the future of aging were undertaken in partnership with
Aging2.0. Dedicated events focused on aging plus insights from topics such as the future of data, health and work have all added more views to the mix.
Ini0al Perspec0ves Q4 2014
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
Future of Aging Events Four future of aging events were held in Hong Kong, Sydney, London and Palo Alto, CA. These were hosted by The Jade Club, AMP, Saga plc and the Stanford Center on Longevity. A fi=h event will be hosted by AARP in Washington DC on Oct 2nd 2015.
The Future of Aging | The Emerging View This document provides an overview of what we heard from mul0ple expert voices around the world – on the future of aging, how it is changing, what is
driving this change and how it may evolve over the next decade.
Four Key Themes Across the the discussions so far, issues related to aging
seem to be touching upon and connec0ng with four underlying, and interwoven, themes with different emphasis in different countries.
Agelessness Working Longer
Aging in Community
Care for the Aging
Agelessness
Agelessness Culture catches up with demographics and age-‐based limita0ons fade. New
opportuni0es for older people to par0cipate in society emerge, although many are only available to the healthy and wealthy, crea0ng a new set of challenges.
Lifespan Limits On a global scale, life expectancies in developed regions are con0nuing to rise in the 21st century and, although most people assume that there are biological limits on life span, so far there is liJle evidence that we are approaching them.
Culture ShiT The culture that guides people through life today is a culture that evolved around shorter lives. The urgent challenge now is to create cultures that support people through ten and more decades of life.
Re-‐defining Purpose Life-‐plans will need to recognise lengthy ‘old-‐age’,
driving a search for purpose into and beyond the tradi0onal, but arbitrary, no0on of re0rement.
The Bigger Opportunity Predic0ons about economic disaster change to discussions of economic
growth if people remain produc0ve into advanced ages. We are experiencing one of the greatest opportuni0es to improve quality of life at all ages.
MulO-‐GeneraOonal Travel Many elect to travel together as mul0-‐genera0on groups of both families and mixed friends. They look for vaca0ons that keep everyone happy and, as such,
stress many systems based on delivering segmented experiences.
Life-‐long Learning Educa0on is a high priority for all na0ons to remain compe00ve in a global market place: It is increasingly available on line. Widespread internet access
allows governments to make life-‐long learning available for those who want it.
The GeneraOon Divide The perspec0ve gap grows between the expecta0ons of the young,
who are increasingly global in their outlook, and the more tradi0onal views of more senior and experienced colleagues.
Intra and Inter-‐generaOonal Harmony Mutually nega0ve stereotypes between young and old are are offset by a growing interest in youth serving the elderly. The wisdom of elders is again
respected and sought by younger genera0ons.
Unequal Futures New technologies, new economic opportuni0es and new lifestyle choices for older people will be very unevenly distributed, leading to extreme inequali0es
within and between ageing popula0ons.
DisrupOve Voices, DisrupOve Impacts Senior ac0vism will grow with the demographic. Policy will increasingly reflect
the will of older people: especially in housing/communi0es, health and employment, leading to intergenera0onal tensions over choices made.
Working Longer
Working Longer For those who have inadequate re0rement savings, the most obvious
solu0on is to work longer. One major poten0al barrier, however, is that employers remain ambivalent about older workers.
Infeasible ReOrement For many, re0rement at age 65 is economically infeasible. The reality is that few workers can fund a 30 year re0rement
with a 40 year career. Neither can socie0es.
Cost of Older Workers The cost of older workers is a real issue for employers. Offering bridge jobs or flexible work arrangements such as flex hours and part-‐0me work will allow employers to retain the exper0se of older workers while reducing costs.
Societal Benefit 85% of Americans aged 65-‐69 report no health-‐based limita0ons on paid work or housework. Similar trends are evident in Europe. Socie0es that
find ways to tap older peoples’ contribu0ons will benefit greatly.
Wisdom Workers Focus is on enabling reinven0on stemming from opportuni0es created by non-‐linear career paths and innova0on networks, giving rise to the ‘wisdom worker’ -‐ where experience is the cri0cal addi0on to skills and intelligence.
‘Bleisure’ and ‘SabbaOcaOon’ Travel con0nues to evolve in line with changing work paJerns and career aspira0ons; being able to work-‐away, take longer breaks off-‐grid, and even job-‐share and job-‐switch, become significant drivers of future travel offers.
Age Diversified Workforces The demographic changes underway are fundamentally altering virtually all aspects of life as we know it. Workforces are becoming
older and more age diversified than ever in history.
SupporOng the Ageing Workforce As major economies suffer from increasing dependency ra0os, the challenge of suppor0ng an increasingly older workforce demands rethinking of life-‐long
learning and broader acceptance of the cost of part-‐0me flexible jobs.
Senior-‐preneurship Flourishes Products and services aimed at the ageing popula0on will proliferate. But seniors will also be ac0vely involved in innova0on themselves, developing
new economic opportuni0es for all, both within and beyond the ageing space.
Cross-‐generaOonal CollaboraOon Tapping into the exper0se of part-‐0me older workers and the re0red is supported both by the elderly, who seek to remain ac0ve and make a
difference, and the young who can help share and apply their knowledge.
Increased Wellbeing Both paid and unpaid work are associated with enhanced well-‐being,
delayed disability, decreased mortality risk, and onset of fewer diseases and associated func0onal impairments.
Aging in Community
Aging in Community Individuals, families as well as healthcare payers desire to keep older people living healthy and independent loner. This requires upgraded
infrastructure, transporta0on systems and thoughkul products and services.
AdapOng for Ageing PopulaOons In developed countries, 80% of older people will live in ci0es by 2050, while
ci0es in developing countries will house 25% of the older popula0on. Planners are adap0ng urban environments to support healthy ageing of popula0ons.
Changing Travel MoOvaOons Demographic shi=s and technology developments influence when and why
we need to travel. Mo0va0ons for work and leisure mobility blur, and dynamic pricing and the sharing economy deliver greater efficiency in the system.
Triple-‐Access SoluOons Focus should be upon developing a balanced triple-‐access system of transport, physical proximity and digital connec0vity system that may transcend the tradi0onal remits of government departments.
Autonomous Vehicles Led by urban delivery pods and long distance trucks, the rise of automa0cally driven vehicles leads to the
reinven0on of the travel experience around infotainment.
Mainstreaming of Design for Ageing Consumer products increasingly incorporate the perspec0ve of older users into the design process – and in so doing,
make them simpler and easier to use for all.
Living Longer -‐ Not Lonelier In some countries we shape a more connected world in which older people feel
significant and worth something. Physical solu0ons such as co-‐located care homes and crèches recreate historical connec0ons between the ageing and wider society.
In Need of Belonging Small communi0es exist in mega ci0es to provide a sense of community and social wellbeing. Looking ahead, the more responsive ci0es will
seek to enable communi0es to mould their neighbourhoods.
Commodifying InOmacy Increasing isola0on drives adop0on of innova0ve products (such as social robots), new services and business models that help people
meet physical and emo0onal needs for connec0on.
Care for the Aging
Care for the Aging As the popula0on ages, the healthcare sector changes the way in which it
delivers support, with more coordina0on among service providers and more in-‐home care. There is also a frank conversa0on about people’s “right to die”.
Visualising Future Needs Predic0ve analysis, gene0c profiling and credit systems combine to give us
sight of our personal future care needs. We adjust behaviours; we are aware of long-‐term impacts of our ac0ons and take ownership of personal care budgets.
HolisiOc Health Planning There will be a wholesale shi= in health focus from short-‐term problem-‐solving to long-‐term, healthy-‐life planning and management, with GPs
(ini0ally) shi=ing their role to become whole-‐life health coaches.
Life Worth Living We shi= the system from one focused on care with the needs of the ins0tu0on a priority to one focused on enhancing quality of life and dignity. There is a rise in pallia0ve care and societal par0cipa0on giving more meaning to later life.
Parent Care A greater recogni0on of the social and economic benefits of family caregivers. Organisa0ons develop programs and support for their working caregivers
looking a=er their parents as well as their children.
Caregiver Marketplaces Recogni0on of the trillion dollar informal caregiver economy drives new solu0ons aimed at educa0ng, suppor0ng and
empowering family caregivers.
Living While Dying We will see policy, product and service innova0ons in the field of end-‐of-‐life planning. Businesses and professions will come to recognise the need to provide more (end-‐of) life-‐style choices to individuals and consumers.
The Healthcare Debt Time-‐Bomb The rising cost of healthcare results in ra0oning and the end of universal
healthcare. Individual health budgets, preven0on technology, migra0on and working longer all increase as new approaches seek to improve efficiency.
Welfare Reboot As increasing inequality in Europe leads to social unrest, healthcare and
welfare systems are stressed and rethought. Ideological views are replaced by pragma0c solu0ons that recognise the fundamentals for an ageing popula0on.
HalOng Alzheimer's Stopping mental degrada0on from Alzheimer’s makes
quality ageing more possible by improving cogni0on and slowing the rate of decline
Mass Medical Tourism Medical tourism goes main-‐stream as low-‐cost cardiac
surgery and broader healthcare provision join den0stry and cosme0c surgery to have global impact
Looking Ahead Rather than move forward by happenstance, we need strategic thinking
about how to best use added decades of life. Helping individuals and na0ons visualize and prepare is essen0al to ensure that longer lives are high quality.
Some QuesOons
Some QuesOons From these discussions on and around the future of aging, there seems to be a number of key ques0ons to be addressed by governments, companies and individuals – some global and some more local or regional in focus.
1. Will we find and agree common approaches for aging globally, or will regional and na0onal priori0es be the norm for coopera0on for the next decade?
2. Will society integrate across the genera0ons to take advantage of each others’ contribu0ons, or will intergenera0onal harmony fall prey to discrimina0on, rent-‐seeking and prejudice?
3. What impact will the growing number of older voters have on the poli0cal landscape? How will they allocate resources between programs to support today’s older people versus inves0ng in tomorrow’s genera0ons?
4. What approaches for integrated, intergenera0onal community-‐living will successfully scale?
5. What models of engagement will allow companies to benefit from the skills and experience of older workers while respec0ng the changing physical and social needs of older workers?
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Track Facilitator – Aging: Stephen Johnston, Aging2.0 ([email protected])