future agenda 2010 global insights - the world in 2020
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TheWorldin2020InsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussionsJanuary2011 Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram
TheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogrammethataccessesmul;pleviewsofthenextdecadesothatwecanallbebe?er
informedandhences;mulatemorefocusedandimpac@ulinnova;on.
FutureAgenda Context
Thisdocumentprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul;pleexpertvoicesaroundtheworldin2010–onhowitischanging,whatisdrivingchangeandwhatandwherewillbetheimpactsoverthenextdecade.
TheWorldin2020 Context
Acrossthemul;plediscussions,52emergingissuesaretouchinguponandconnec;ngwitheightunderlying,andinterwoven,themeswith
differentemphasisindifferentcountries.Thesearedetailedbelow.
SevenThemes
Certain;es Health Wealth Happiness
Mobility Security Locality
FourCertain;es
By2020wewilladdanother750mpeopletotheplanet,mostinplacesleastabletoaccommodatethem
ImbalancedPopula?onGrowth Certain?es
Wewillseeeconomic,physicalandpoli;calshortagesofkeymaterialsthatwillresultinmajorchangesinourperspec;ves
KeyResourceConstraints Certain?es
ThecentreofgravityofglobalwealthshiQsEastwithdecreasedinfluencefortheUSandEurope
AsianWealthShiE Certain?es
Wewillbeconnectedeverywhere-everythingthatcanbenefitfromanetworkconnec;onwillhaveone
UbiquitousDataAccess Certain?es
Health
Robo;cassistedcareandremotemonitoringprovideeconomicallyviablesupportforthesickandelderlyso
thatpeoplecanstayhomeforlonger
AutomatedPeopleCare Health
Enhancedfunc;onalitywillshiQfromanexternaladd-ontoanintegratedcapabilitytoprovidetheop;onforsuper-humanperformance
ClinicalEnhancement Health
Withdiabetesconsuming5%ofGDPacombina;onoffattaxa;on,pa;entdataminingandpersonalbudgets
willplayaroleinstabilisingtheobesityepidemic
Diabesity Health
Wearelikelytosee2to3majorpandemicsstartinregionswithlimitedpublichealthcareandrapidly
spreadgloballyandsodemandfastresponse
GlobalPandemics Health
Stoppingmentaldegrada;onfromAlzheimer’smakesqualityageingmorepossiblebyimprovingcogni;onandslowingtherateofdecline
Hal?ngAlzheimer's Health
Medicaltourismgoesmain-streamaslow-costcardiacsurgeryandbroaderhealthcareprovisionjoin
den;stryandcosme;csurgerytohaveglobalimpact
MassMedicalTourism Health
Morecustomisedfoods,blurthelinebetweenpharmaceu;calsandfoodasneutragenomicsallowindividualiseddietstofitgene;cprofiles
PharmaFoods
Health
Theescala;ngeconomicandsocialcostofsuppor;ngtheagedbeyondnaturallifecyclesleadstowideracceptanceofassistedsuicide
SystemicEuthanasia
Health
Wealth
Asinforma;onissharedgloballyandinsightiscommodi;zed,thebestreturnsgotothosewhocanproduce
non-standard,differen;atedknowledge
Differen?atedKnowledge
Wealth
Pervasivesmartmetersandubiquitoustrackingservicescreatepla@ormsforthedynamicpricingof
resources,accessandtraveltomanagedemand
DynamicPricing Wealth
Risingsustainabilityimpera;vesandincreasingcostofownershipshiQthebalancefrom
ownershiptoaccessandweprefertorentthanbuy
LeaseEverything Wealth
Consumersareincen;visedtousesignificantlylessenergyasescala;nggrowthincarbonemissions
forceu;li;estochangetheirbusinessmodels
LessEnergy Wealth
Therevitalisa;onofbartering,decreasedtrustinbanksandincreasingtaxavoidancebroadens
theadop;onofalterna;vestoresofvaluefortrade
LocalCurrency Wealth
Provensystemsbuiltonmobileconnec;vityandincreasinglyflexiblemeansofexchangeprovidea
;ppingpointintheshiQtowardsthecashlesssociety
MobileMoney Wealth
Wideningdifferencesinwealthbetweenandwithinurbanandruralcommuni;esextendsthegapbetween
richandpoor-buttheys;llneedeachother
RicherPoorer Wealth
TheeconomicriseofAsiaandtheneedforanalterna;vetotheUSdollarastheworld’sreservecurrencyproduces
aparallelbroad-basketAsianCurrencyUnit
ThirdGlobalCurrency Wealth
Happiness
Awealthier,healthieroldergenera;onincreasinglyengageinmoreac;velives,havingextendedcareers
andbecomingmorepoli;callyinvolved
Ac?veElderly Happiness
Theincreasingfragmenta;onofsocietyandlooserconnec;onbetweenreligionandthestate
seesmoreofusturningtoGod
ChoosingGod Happiness
Theneedtodifferen;atebetweenrealandvirtualdisappears-whoyouareceasestouseasingulariden;ty
aswemanagemul;pleiden;typor@olios
CocktailIden??es Happiness
Growingsa;sfac;oninthebasicsoflifefocusesmoreonmakingthemostoftheday-to-day
andincreasinglyvaluingtheordinary
EnjoyingtheOrdinary Happiness
Thefutureisoneofreducedchoicebutnotlessinterestasretailersprovideanincreasinglyeditedpor@olioofproductsthroughevermoreefficientchannels
LessVariety Happiness
Theroleofliveinanincreasinglyvirtual,isolatedworldbecomesmoreimportantto
createmomentsfordeeper,richerconnec;ons
LiveExperiences Happiness
Mul;plemediasourcesareinstantlyintegratedatthepointofconsump;ontoprovideuswithimmersive
accesstotailored,bite-sizedcontent
SeamlessMediaConsump?on Happiness
Beingdisconnectedinanalwaysconnectedworldleadstovirtualcocoonsathomeandrealphysicalsolitudebecomesanop;ononlyfortherich
SwitchingOff Happiness
Mobility
Ledbymoretouristsandsteadygrowthincargotransporta;on,Asianavia;onplacesmoreordersandbecomesthelargestairmarketintheworld
AsianAvia?on Mobility
China,thepacese?erforchangeininter-urbantransport,isinves;ngover$1trillionexpandingits
railnetworkto120,000kmby2020
ChineseTrains Mobility
Underincreasingpressuretoimproveefficiencyfreightshippingadoptsarangeofalterna;ve
policiesandpowersystems
CleanShipping Mobility
WithFranceandGermanytakingtheini;alleadroles,electriccarstakeoffandformupto10%ofthe
world’svehiclefleetby2020
ElectricMobility Mobility
Meshnetworksandubiquitousmobileconnec;onsdeliverautomatedhighwaystoimprovesafety,
increasecapacityandreduceconges;on
IntelligentHighways Mobility
Withincreasingeconomicmigra;onthetotalMuslimpopula;onofEuropeissimilarinsizetothatofGermanyandarisingcultural/poli;calinfluence
MuslimEurope Mobility
Theacceptanceofbeingtrackedbyyourmobileisacceleratedby;cket-lesstransportsystems,increasedsurveillanceandsuccessfulloca;on-basedservices
PeopleTracking Mobility
Informedchoices,growth,conges;onandregula;onimpacttheworld’sci;estodriveashiQtomoresustainableefficienttransportop;ons
Urban(Im)mobility Mobility
Security
TheshiQinglobaldietfromricetomeatbringsnewsourcesofproteinlikelab-grownmanufactured
meatsandhighproteinvegetablecombina;ons
Alterna?veProteins Security
Ac;vegatheringandinterpreta;onofdatarelatedtothreatstohumanandanimalhealthdeliversfasterearlywarningandsitua;onalawareness
Bio-Surveillance Security
Greaterinforma;onoverloadmovesourfocusfromsimplyaccessingdatatoincludethesource
oftheinsighttodis;nguishwhatwetrust
CredibleSources Security
Withmorefreeagentsandoutsourcing,non-corefunc;onswithinorganisa;onsareinterchangeable
andeasilyrebuiltaroundvalue-crea;ngunits
CorporateLEGO Security
IntelligentUAVschoosetheirvic;msthemselvesastheraceformorefocusedmilitaryinfluenceleads
totheprolifera;onofassassina;ontools
DroneWars Security
Increasinggovernmentalfocusonenergysecurityandclimatechangedrivestheuptakeoflarge-scale
solarastheleadingrenewablesupply
SolarSunrise Security
Advancedwaterpurifica;on,irriga;onanddesalina;ontechnologiesareusedtohelpcommuni;estomanagetherisingsupply/demandimbalance
WaterManagement
Security
Trus;ngourdigitalcreden;alsallowsustopar;cipateconfidentlyinopenglobaltransac;onstogainaccess
towhatwewantwhenwewantit
VirtualAuthen?city Security
Locality
Escala;ngwasteproduc;onandnewadtudes,approaches,regula;onandbusinessmodelsleadmanytoaimforanalmostzerowastesociety
AlmostZeroWaste
Locality
Theneedtomakepublictransportasflexibleasprivatefocusesa?en;ononthelastmilebetweenmul;-modal
hubsandthehome/workdes;na;on
BridgingTheLastMile
Locality
Inruralandurbanenvironments,thecommunityisaprizedgoalforthemiddleaged,middleclassesas
theyseektoreconnectwith“peoplelikeus”
CommunityLiving Locality
Asurbanmigra;onincreases,efficient,denselypopulatedci;es,notdistributedop;ons,aretheblueprintsformoresustainableplacestolive
DenseCi?es Locality
Increasedtransparencyonfoodavailabilityandsecurity,landuseandeco-literacyacceleratemassconsump;on
oflocallygrownandprocessedfoods
LocalFoods Locality
Smarter,be?erconnected,self-monitoringhomesandofficesprovidesafer,moresecure,lowenergy
buildingsabletoself-manageu;li;es
Intelligentbuildings
Locality
Increasingcompe;;onbetweenci;esover-ridesna;onalpriori;esasmayorsleadboldini;a;vestoplacetheir
ci;esattheforefrontoftheglobalstage
MegaCityStates
Locality
Immigra;onispartofeconomicdevelopmentstrategiesand,especiallyinlowfer;lityeconomies,
na;onsposi;onthemselvestoa?ractmigrants
Migra?onMagnets Locality
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