fundflows insight report€¦ · etfs, which are reviewed in the section below) for february....

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FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT THOMSON REUTERS LIPPER RESEARCH SERIES 1 FEBRUARY 28, 2018 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For the eighth month in a row investors were net purchasers of mutual fund assets overall, injecting $26.6 billion into the conventional funds business (excluding ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset funds witnessed net outflows, handing back $12.8 billion for February, and for the first month in 14 fund investors were net sellers of fixed income funds, withdrawing $1.3 billion from the macro-group. However, for the third month in four money market funds witnessed net inflows, taking in $40.8 billion for the month. Investors continued to be rocked by fears of inflation, rising interest rates, and— earlier in the month—the possibility of another government shutdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Only Index posted its first monthly loss in 11— declining 4.28% for February, its largest monthly drop since January 2016. In the first week of the month the broad-based indices suffered their largest weekly decline in more than two years after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy had created 200,000 new jobs for January (exceeding analyst expectations of 180,000) and the average hourly wage grew 0.3%, pushing the annual increase to 2.9% (the fastest growth since 2008-2009). This news stoked inflation fears and pushed the ten-year Treasury yield to a four-year high (+2.83%). The market continued its meltdown the following week, with the Dow losing 1,032.89 points on February 8, entering correction territory. A mid-month cooling of inflation fears, news of housing starts in January rising 10%, and the consumer sentiment index rising to 99.9 in February helped the market change direction. Investors pushed the Dow to its largest one-week gain since November 2016, despite the ten-year Treasury yield hitting 2.94% but closing the week out at 2.88%. Nonetheless, the stock market tanked again on Tuesday, February 27, as new Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified that some of the data he had seen added to his confidence that inflation was moving up to the target. That caused many pundits to believe the Fed will take a faster approach to rate increases. Fund Investors and APs Are Net Redeemers of Equity Funds and ETFs for February Authored by: TOM ROSEEN HEAD OF RESEARCH SERVICES THOMSON REUTERS LIPPER Fund Investors and APs Are Net Redeemers of Equity Funds and ETFs for February For the eighth straight month mutual fund investors were net purchasers of fund assets, injecting a net $26.6 billion into the conventional funds business. However, only money market funds (+$40.8 billion) witnessed net inflows for January, while investors were net redeemers of stock & mixed-asset funds (-$12.8 billion) and fixed income funds (-$1.3 billion—for the first month in 14). For the fifth consecutive month world equity funds witnessed net inflows, attracting $11.6 billion for February. For the first month in 25 authorized participants (APs) were net redeemers of ETFs, withdrawing $8.0 billion for February. APs redeemed a net $10.1 billion from stock & mixed-asset ETFs but were net purchasers of bond ETFs, injecting a net $2.1 billion. For the first month in seven World Equity ETFs (+$10.2 billion for February) attracted the largest (only) net draw of the five broad-based equity ETF macro-classifications. FEBRUARY JANUARY Stock & Mixed Equity Funds -12.8 2.1 Bond Funds -1.3 46.9 Money Market Funds 40.8 -44.9 TOTAL 26.6 4.1 TABLE 1 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS BY MAJOR FUND TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL) FEBRUARY JANUARY USDE Funds -18.6 -21.7 Sector Equity Funds -3.6 0.5 World Equity Funds 11.6 17.4 Mixed-Asset Funds -2.6 3.3 Alternatives Funds 0.4 2.6 TOTAL -12.8 2.1 TABLE 2 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF MAJOR EQUITY FUND TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL) Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

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Page 1: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORTTHOMSON REUTERS LIPPER RESEARCH SERIES

1

FEBRUARY 28, 2018

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFor the eighth month in a row investors were net purchasers of mutual fund assets overall, injecting $26.6 billion into the conventional funds business (excluding ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset funds witnessed net outflows, handing back $12.8 billion for February, and for the first month in 14 fund investors were net sellers of fixed income funds, withdrawing $1.3 billion from the macro-group. However, for the third month in four money market funds witnessed net inflows, taking in $40.8 billion for the month.

Investors continued to be rocked by fears of inflation, rising interest rates, and—earlier in the month—the possibility of another government shutdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Only Index posted its first monthly loss in 11—declining 4.28% for February, its largest monthly drop since January 2016.

In the first week of the month the broad-based indices suffered their largest weekly decline in more than two years after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the U.S. economy had created 200,000 new jobs for January (exceeding analyst expectations of 180,000) and the average hourly wage grew 0.3%, pushing the annual increase to 2.9% (the fastest growth since 2008-2009). This news stoked inflation fears and pushed the ten-year Treasury yield to a four-year high (+2.83%). The market continued its meltdown the following week, with the Dow losing 1,032.89 points on February 8, entering correction territory.

A mid-month cooling of inflation fears, news of housing starts in January rising 10%, and the consumer sentiment index rising to 99.9 in February helped the market change direction. Investors pushed the Dow to its largest one-week gain since November 2016, despite the ten-year Treasury yield hitting 2.94% but closing the week out at 2.88%. Nonetheless, the stock market tanked again on Tuesday, February 27, as new Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified that some of the data he had seen added to his confidence that inflation was moving up to the target. That caused many pundits to believe the Fed will take a faster approach to rate increases.

Fund Investors and APs Are Net Redeemers of Equity Funds and ETFs for February

Authored by:

TOM ROSEENHEAD OF RESEARCH SERVICESTHOMSON REUTERS LIPPER

Fund Investors and APs Are Net Redeemers of Equity Funds and ETFs for February

• For the eighth straight month mutual fund investors were net purchasers of fund assets, injecting a net $26.6 billion into the conventional funds business. However, only money market funds (+$40.8 billion) witnessed net inflows for January, while investors were net redeemers of stock & mixed-asset funds (-$12.8 billion) and fixed income funds (-$1.3 billion—for the first month in 14).

• For the fifth consecutive month world equity funds witnessed net inflows, attracting $11.6 billion for February.

• For the first month in 25 authorized participants (APs) were net redeemers of ETFs, withdrawing $8.0 billion for February. APs redeemed a net $10.1 billion from stock & mixed-asset ETFs but were net purchasers of bond ETFs, injecting a net $2.1 billion.

• For the first month in seven World Equity ETFs (+$10.2 billion for February) attracted the largest (only) net draw of the five broad-based equity ETF macro-classifications.

FEBRUARY JANUARYStock & Mixed Equity Funds -12.8 2.1Bond Funds -1.3 46.9Money Market Funds 40.8 -44.9TOTAL 26.6 4.1

TABLE 1 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS BY MAJOR FUND TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

FEBRUARY JANUARYUSDE Funds -18.6 -21.7Sector Equity Funds -3.6 0.5World Equity Funds 11.6 17.4Mixed-Asset Funds -2.6 3.3Alternatives Funds 0.4 2.6TOTAL -12.8 2.1

TABLE 2 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF MAJOR EQUITY FUND TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns may not sum because of rounding

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns may not sum because of rounding

Page 2: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

2

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

UNITED STATES DIVERSIFIED EQUITY (USDE) FUNDSFor the ninth month in a row USDE Funds suffered net outflows (-$18.6 billion for February). Investors gave a cold shoulder to growth-oriented funds (-$10.2 billion) and large-cap funds (-$11.3 billion). Lipper’s Large-Cap Growth Funds classification (-$6.1 billion) suffered the largest net redemptions of the macro-classification, bettered by Large-Cap Core Funds and Multi-Cap Growth Funds (-$3.5 billion and -$3.1 billion, respectively). Once again Multi-Cap Core Funds (+$3.7 billion) witnessed the only net inflows of the 4x3-matrix subgroup. For the fourth month in a row the non-4x3-matrix subgroup experienced net outflows (-$2.1 billion for February), with S&P 500 Index Funds experiencing the only net inflows (+$1.0 billion). Equity Income Funds witnessed the largest net redemptions of the subgroup (-$2.4 billion).

EQUITY FUNDSTABLE 3 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF 4X3-MATRIX USDE FUNDS,

FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

VALUE CORE GROWTH FEBRUARY JANUARY

Large-Cap -1.7 -3.5 -6.1 -11.3 -9.1

Multi-cap -1.3 3.7 -3.1 -0.7 -3.0

Mid-Cap -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -2.5 -2.3

Small-Cap -0.2 -1.5 -0.2 -1.9 -2.6

TOTAL -4.0 -2.2 -10.2 -16.4 -17.0

TABLE 4 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF OTHER USDE CLASSIFICATIONS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

FEBRUARY JANUARY

Equity Leverage Funds -0.7 0.1

Equity Income Funds -2.4 -3.5

Specialty Diversified Equity Funds 0.0 0.0

S&P 500 Index Funds 1.0 -1.2

TOTAL -2.1 -4.6

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns may not sum because of rounding

Page 3: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

3

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

WORLD EQUITY FUNDSDespite World Equity Funds taking it on the chin in February, declining 4.43% on average for the month and underperforming the average USDE fund (-3.61%), fund investors continued to embrace international issues. For the fifth consecutive month investors were net purchasers of the World Equity Funds macro-classification, injecting $11.6 billion for February. For the fourteenth month in a row institutional world equity funds (including variable insurance products) (+$12.0 billion) and no-load funds (+$1.4 billion) witnessed net inflows, while loaded world equity funds (-$1.9 billion) suffered net redemptions. For the eighth month in a row Lipper’s Global Diversified Equity Funds subgroup (-$648 million for February) witnessed net outflows, while for the fifteenth consecutive month the International Diversified Equity Funds subgroup experienced net inflows—taking in a little less than $10.3 billion for February. International Multi-Cap Core Funds (+$7.2 billion) remained at the top of the World Equity Funds classifications. Emerging Markets Funds, taking in $2.0 billion net, was the runner-up for the month, followed by International Multi-Cap Growth Funds (+$1.6 billion). At the bottom of the pile Global Multi-Cap Core Funds witnessed the largest net redemptions (-$1.4 billion), bettered by Global Equity Income Funds (-$374 million).

EQUITY FUNDSTABLE 5 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF GLOBAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY

FUNDS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

VALUE CORE GROWTH FEBRUARY JANUARY

Large-Cap -0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.6

Multi-Cap -0.3 -1.4 0.2 -1.5 -1.4

Small-/Mid-Cap (No Style) 0.6 0.6 0.9

TOTAL (LARGE & MULTI) -0.5 -0.5 0.4 -0.6 -1.1

TABLE 7 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF REMAINING WORLD EQUITY FUND CLASSIFICATIONS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

FEBRUARY JANUARY

China Region Funds 0.0 0.2

Emerging Markets Funds 2.0 4.1

European Region Funds -0.1 0.4

Global Equity Income Funds -0.4 -0.2

India Region Funds 0.0 0.1

International Equity Income Funds 0.1 0.1

Japanese Funds 0.3 0.9

Latin American Funds 0.0 0.0

Pacific Region Funds 0.0 0.1

Pacific ex-Japan Funds 0.0 0.2

TOTAL 1.9 5.7

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns may not sum because of rounding

TABLE 6 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY FUNDS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

VALUE CORE GROWTH FEBRUARY JANUARY

Large-Cap 0.1 -0.3 0.5 0.3 3.5

Multi-Cap 0.5 7.2 1.6 9.3 8.2Small-/Mid-Cap 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.7 1.1

TOTAL 0.6 7.3 2.4 10.3 12.8

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

Page 4: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

4

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

SECTOR EQUITY FUNDSA flight from risky assets pushed investors away from the Sector Equity Funds macro-classification for February. For the sixth month in seven investors were net redeemers of funds in the macro-classification, which handed back $3.6 billion for February. The primary bright spots in the group were Commodities General Funds (+$685 million) and Industrials Funds (+$131 million). Taking the number-three and -four positions were Financial Services Funds (+$95 million) and Global Real Estate Funds (+$79 million). Once again, the Real Estate Funds classification suffered the largest net outflows of the group, handing back slightly less than $1.1 billion for February, bettered by Science & Technology Funds (-$885 million). Of the 24 Lipper classifications in the Sector Equity Funds macro-classification 11 suffered net redemptions for February.

EQUITY FUNDSTABLE 8 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF SECTOR EQUITY FUNDS, FEBRUARY

VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

FEBRUARY JANUARYPrecious Metals Equity Funds 0.0 0.0

Basic Materials Funds -0.1 0.1

Consumer Goods Funds -0.1 -0.1

Commodities Energy Funds 0.0 0.0

Commodities General Funds 0.7 1.1

Commodities Specialty Funds 0.0 0.0

Consumer Services Funds 0.1 0.2

Energy MLP Funds 0.1 0.8

Financial Services Funds 0.1 0.1

Global Financial Services Funds 0.0 0.0

Global Health/Biotechnology Funds -0.5 -0.6

Global Infrastructure Funds -0.2 -0.1

Global Natural Resources Funds -0.6 -0.1

Global Real Estate Funds 0.1 0.3

Global Science/Technology Funds 0.1 0.1

Health/Biotechnology Funds -0.5 -0.4

Industrials Funds 0.1 0.1

International Real Estate Funds 0.0 0.0

Natural Resources Funds -0.3 0.0

Real Estate Funds -1.1 -1.0

Specialty/Miscellaneous Funds -0.1 0.1

Science &Technology Funds -0.9 0.5

Telecommunication Funds 0.0 0.0

Utility Funds -0.4 -0.5

TOTAL -3.6 0.5

Page 5: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

5

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

MIXED-ASSET FUNDSFor the second month in three the Mixed-Asset Funds macro-classification witnessed net outflows, handing back $2.6 billion for February. Convertible Securities Funds and Flexible Portfolio Funds suffered net redemptions of $43 million and $1.1 billion, respectively. However, for the seventh month in a row the mixed-asset target date funds subgroup witnessed net inflows, taking in approximately $5.0 billion for February, while the primarily broker-recommended mixed-asset target allocation funds subgroup—for the twenty-second consecutive month—witnessed net outflows (-$6.4 billion for February). Seven of the sixteen classifications in the subgroups suffered net redemptions for the month, with Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Moderate Funds (-$3.0 billion) having the largest net redemptions, bettered by Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Growth Funds (-$2.8 billion) and Mixed-Asset Target Allocation Conservative Funds (-$618 million). Mixed-Asset Target 2055 Funds (+$1.1 billion) attracted the largest net draw of the classifications.

ALTERNATIVES FUNDSFor the second month in a row the Alternatives Funds macro-classification experienced net inflows (+$443 million for February) as Alternative Long/Short Equity Funds (+$735 million) and Alternative Global Macro Funds (+$497 million) witnessed the largest net inflows of the macro-classification. Alternative Multi-Strategy Funds (-$817 million, a variable annuity underlying fund classification), Alternative Other Funds (-$623 million, also a variable annuity underlying fund classification), and Alternative Active Extension Funds (-$83 million) handed back the largest net amounts.

EQUITY FUNDSTABLE 9 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF TARGET DATE AND TARGET RISK

FUNDS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

FEBRUARY JANUARY

Mixed Asset Target 2010 Funds -0.2 -0.2

Mixed Asset Target 2015 Funds -0.5 -0.5

Mixed Asset Target 2020 Funds -0.3 0.1

Mixed Asset Target 2025 Funds 0.8 2.0

Mixed Asset Target 2030 Funds 0.8 1.7

Mixed Asset Target 2035 Funds 0.9 1.8

Mixed Asset Target 2040 Funds 0.7 1.1

Mixed Asset Target 2045 Funds 0.9 1.2

Mixed Asset Target 2050 Funds 0.9 0.9

Mixed Asset Target 2055+ Funds 1.1 1.2Mixed Asset Target Today Funds -0.2 0.0

Mixed Asset Target Alloc Aggres Funds 0.0 0.1

Mixed Asset Target Alloc Conserv Funds -0.6 -0.7

Mixed Asset Target Alloc Growth Funds -2.8 -1.8

Mixed Asset Target Alloc Moderate Funds -3.0 -2.8

Retirement Income 0.1 0.1

TOTAL -1.5 4.3

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

TABLE 10 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF ALTERNATIVES FUNDS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

FEBRUARY JANUARY

Absolute Return Funds 0.5 0.3

Alternative Active Extension Funds -0.1 -0.1

Alternative Equity Market Neutral Funds 0.3 0.4

Alternative Event Driven Funds -0.1 0.1

Alternative Global Macro Funds 0.5 0.3Alternative Long/Short Equity Funds 0.7 1.5

Alternative Managed Futures Funds -0.1 0.2

Alternative Multi-Strategy Funds -0.8 0.3

Alternative Other Funds -0.6 -0.3

Dedicated Short Bias Funds 0.1 0.0

TOTAL 0.4 2.6

Page 6: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

6

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

FIXED INCOME FUNDSWith the Treasury yield shifting up at all maturities and the ten-year yield hitting a four-year high (2.94%) on February 21, fixed income investors ducked for cover. For the first month in 14 investors were net redeemers of fixed income funds, withdrawing a net $1.3 billion. On the taxable bond (nonmoney market) funds side (+$103 million) 16 of Lipper’s 28 classifications witnessed net inflows, while on the tax-exempt side (-$1.4 billion) only five of the 20 classifications in the municipal bond funds universe saw net inflows. Investors padded the coffers of Core Bond Funds (+$4.0 billion), Ultra-Short Obligation Funds (+$1.7 billion), and General U.S. Treasury Funds (+$1.7 billion). Once again, the High Yield Funds classification witnessed the largest net redemptions of the group, handing back $10.3 billion for February, bettered significantly by U.S. Mortgage Funds (-$1.1 billion), Emerging Markets Hard Currency Debt Funds (-$862 million), and General Bond Funds (-$825 million). On the municipal bond funds side Intermediate Municipal Debt Funds (+$988 million) witnessed the largest net inflows, while Short Municipal Debt Funds (-$1.3 billion) suffered the largest net redemptions of the subgroup.

MONEY MARKET FUNDSFor the third month in four investors were net purchasers of the Money Market Funds macro-classification, injecting $40.8 billion for February. On the taxable side (+$42.0 billion) Institutional U.S. Government Money Market Funds (+$27.2 billion) and U.S. Government Money Market Funds (+$6.3 billion) took in the largest positive net sums. Institutional Money Market Funds witnessed the only net outflows for the month (-$402 million). On the tax-exempt side (-$1.2 billion) three of the five classifications witnessed net outflows: Tax-Exempt Money Market Funds (-$1.1 billion), California Tax-Exempt Money Market Funds (-$175 million), and Other States Tax-Exempt Money Market Funds (-$154 million). Institutional Tax-Exempt Money Market Funds (+$209 million) and New York Tax-Exempt Money Market Funds (+$27 million) witnessed the largest net inflows of the subgroup.

FIXED INCOME FUNDS

TABLE 11 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF MAJOR FIXED INCOME FUND TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

TAXABLE MUNICIPAL FEBRUARY JANUARY

Long-Term Bond -6.2 -1.2 -7.4 18.8

Short & Intermediate 6.3 -0.2 6.1 28.1

Money Market 42.0 -1.2 40.8 -44.9

TOTAL 42.1 -2.6 39.5 2.0

Page 7: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORTTHOMSON REUTERS LIPPER RESEARCH SERIES

7

FEBRUARY 28, 2018

ETF EXECUTIVE SUMMARYFor the first month in 25 ETFs suffered net redemptions, handing back $8.0 billion for February. For the first month since May 2016 authorized participants (APs, those investors who actually create and redeem ETF shares) were net redeemers of stock & mixed-asset ETFs—withdrawing $10.1 billion. However, for the fifteenth consecutive month they were net purchasers of bond ETFs—injecting $2.1 billion for February. APs were net redeemers of four of the five equity-based ETF macro-classifications: USDE ETFs (-$16.2 billion), Sector Equity ETFs (-$2.6 billion), Alternatives ETFs (-$1.2 billion), and Mixed-Asset ETFs (-$0.2 billion), while being net purchasers of World Equity ETFs (+$10.2 billion) for the fifteenth consecutive month.

The U.S. markets started February on a cautionary note after investors learned that January nonfarm payrolls came in above analyst forecasts (200,000 versus an expected 180,000) and the average hourly rate rose 0.3%, also exceeding analyst expectations and raising inflationary concerns. The ten-year Treasury yield jumped to 2.83%, a four-year high. The major indices took another drubbing the following week, entering correction territory. On Thursday, February 8, the Dow and S&P 500 benchmarks witnessed another manic day, declining 1,032.89 points (-4.2%) and 100.66 points (-3.8%), respectively, as investors continued to fear inflation and rising interest rates. That Friday investors learned of the bipartisan budget deal to keep the government open and boosting spending an additional $300 billion over the next two years, which virtually insured the Treasury Department will have to borrow even more. While Q4 2017 GDP (+2.5%) came in weaker than expected (+2.6%), the Dow, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite ended the month with a whimper after new Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony fueled inflation and interest rate-hike fears. Despite a plunge in January durable goods orders and a rise in February consumer confidence, the stock market tanked on Tuesday, February 27, as Powell testified that inflation was moving up to the target. That caused many pundits to believe the Fed will take a faster approach to rate increases. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a fourth rate hike this year grew to 33% from 20% the day before.

For the month of February the Treasury curve shifted up at all maturities on the curve, with the short end rising 19 basis points (bps) for the three-month yield and between 11 bps and 19 bps for maturities greater than two years. The ten-year yield closed the month at 2.87% after hitting a four-year closing high of 2.94% on February 21. The two- and ten-year Treasury spread rose to 62 bps at month-end. Commodities prices were down for the month, with near-month gold prices declining 1.76% to close February at $1,315.50/ounce and with front-month crude oil prices falling 4.77% to close the month at $61.64/barrel.

ETFs WiTnEss nET OuTFlOWs FOr ThE FirsT MOnTh in 25

Authored by:

TOM ROSEENHEAD OF RESEARCH SERVICESTHOMSON REUTERS LIPPER

FEBRUARY JANUARYStock & Mixed Equity ETFs -10.1 58.6Bond ETFs 2.1 9.8TOTAL -8.0 68.4

TABLE 1 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS BY MAJOR ETF TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

FEBRUARY JANUARYUSDE ETFs -16.2 27.4Sector Equity ETFs -2.6 8.3World Equity ETFs 10.2 20.0Mixed-Asset ETFs -0.2 0.2Alternative ETFs -1.2 2.8TOTAL -10.1 58.6

TABLE 2 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF MAJOR EQUITY ETF TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($BIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

Page 8: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

8

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

UNITED STATES DIVERSIFIED EQUITY (USDE) ETFsFor the first month in 21 the USDE ETFs macro-classification experienced net outflows, handing back $16.2 billion for February. Lipper’s broad-based 4x3-matrix subgroup witnessed net outflows for the first month in seven, giving back $1.9 billion, with Multi-Cap Value ETFs (-$1.2 billion) and Multi-Cap Core ETFs (-$809 million) witnessing the largest net redemptions of the subgroup. For the fourth month in a row large-cap ETFs (+$2.1 billion) experienced the only net inflows of the four capitalization groups, while multi-cap ETFs (-$2.1 billion) were the group laggards. Growth-oriented ETFs (+$1.2 billion) attracted the only net inflows of the valuation subgroups for the month, while their core- and value-oriented counterparts handed back $2.1 billion and $973 million, respectively. Large-Cap Growth ETFs (+$1.7 billion) and Large-Cap Value ETFs (+$643 million) witnessed the only net inflows of the subgroup. Outside the 4x3-matrix classifications S&P 500 Index ETFs witnessed the largest net outflows (-$14.1 billion). iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) individually witnessed the largest net inflows (+$4.3 billion), while SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) witnessed the largest individual net outflows (-$20.3 billion).

EQUITY ETFsTABLE 3 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF USDE 4X3-MATRIX ETFs, FEBRUARY

VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

VALUE CORE GROWTH FEBRUARY JANUARY

Large-Cap 643.1 -231.5 1,656.7 2,068.2 4,107.7

Multi-Cap -1,232.9 -809.0 -20.9 -2,062.8 -149.9

Mid-Cap -146.7 -503.8 -143.7 -794.2 1,502.1

Small-Cap -237.0 -598.1 -270.7 -1,105.8 -1,021.2

TOTAL -973.4 -2,142.5 1,221.5 -1,894.5 4,438.7

TABLE 4 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF OTHER USDE CLASSIFICATIONS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

FEBRUARY JANUARY

Equity Leverage ETFs 2,034.0 -417.3

Equity Income ETFs -2,295.6 1,806.9

Specialty Diversified ETFs 0.0 0.0

S&P 500 Index ETFs -14,074.9 21,559.4

TOTAL -14,336.5 22,949.0

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

Page 9: FUNDFLOWS INSIGHT REPORT€¦ · ETFs, which are reviewed in the section below) for February. However, the headline number was misleading. For the eleventh month in 12 stock & mixed-asset

9

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

WORLD EQUITY ETFsFor the fifteenth month in a row APs were net purchasers of World Equity ETFs, injecting $10.2 billion for February. APs—for the seventeenth month running—padded the coffers of International Diversified Equity ETFs, purchasing a net $6.2 billion for February, and for the twelfth consecutive month they were net purchasers of the Global Diversified Equity ETFs subgroup (+$973 million for February). For the fifteenth month in a row APs were also net purchasers of the non-3x3-matrix subgroup, injecting a net $3.0 billion. International Multi-Cap Core ETFs, attracting a net $5.7 billion, moved to the top of the charts for the month, while Emerging Markets ETFs (+$2.2 billion) and Global Multi-Cap Core ETFs (+$810 million) took the number-two and -three spots. Pacific Region ETFs experienced the largest net redemptions of the macro-classification, handing back $398 million for the month. iShares Core MSCI EAFA ETF (IEFA), with net inflows of $6.8 billion for February, attracted the most individual interest in the macro-classification. iShares MSCI EAFE ETF (EFA) handed back the largest individual net redemptions (-$3.7 billion).

EQUITY ETFsTABLE 5 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF GLOBAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY ETFs,

FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

TABLE 7 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF REMAINING WORLD EQUITY ETF CLASSIFICATIONS, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

Source: Thomson Reuters LipperNote: Columns may not sum because of rounding

TABLE 6 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFIED EQUITY ETFs, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

FEBRUARY JANUARY

China Region ETFs 451.9 1,001.6

Emerging Markets ETFs 2,175.8 9,020.4

European Region ETFs 656.6 846.9

Global Equity Income ETFs -34.4 138.4

India Region ETFs -74.8 160.5

International Equity Income ETFs 446.9 668.7

Japanese ETFs -145.2 1,237.9

Latin American ETFs 53.0 51.3

Pacific Region ETFs -397.5 154.1

Pacific ex-Japan ETFs -147.7 432.7

TOTAL 2,984.6 13,712.6

VALUE CORE GROWTH FEBRUARY JANUARY

Large-Cap 91.5 48.4 5.3 145.2 197.5

Multi-Cap 122.3 5749.0 82.2 5,953.6 5,262.0

Small-/Mid-Cap -0.4 132.8 -4.2 128.2 496.3

TOTAL 213.4 5,930.2 83.3 6,226.9 5,955.7

VALUE CORE GROWTH FEBRUARY JANUARY

Large-Cap 0.0 75.9 -0.1 75.8 -9.1

Multi-Cap -0.1 810.4 2.0 812.3 303.6

Small-/Mid-Cap (No Style) 85.1 85.1 28.5

TOTAL (LARGE & MULTI) -0.1 886.2 -0.1 973.2 323.1

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10

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

SECTOR EQUITY ETFsFor the first month in six Sector Equity ETFs witnessed net outflows—handing back $2.6 billion for February, with 14 of Lipper’s 27 Sector Equity ETF classifications witnessing net outflows. Precious Metals Equity ETFs (+$952 million), Science & Technology ETFs (+$868 million), and Financial Services ETFs (+$714 million) were at the top of the charts for the month, while Health/Biotechnology ETFs (-$1.7 billion), Industrials ETFs (-$1.4 billion), and Real Estate ETFs (-$804 million) suffered the largest net redemptions. VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), taking in a net $698 million, attracted the largest individual draw for February. At the bottom of the individual ETF pile was Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI, January’s leader), handing back a net $1.5 billion for the month.

EQUITY ETFs

TABLE 8 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF SECTOR EQUITY ETFs, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

FEBRUARY JANUARY

Precious Metals Equity ETFs 952.5 -555.8

Basic Materials ETFs -4.6 864.8

Consumer Goods ETFs -348.9 -1,229.6

Commodities Agriculture ETFs 6.7 87.2

Commodities Energy ETFs 36.6 -670.3

Commodities General ETFs 429.9 659.2

Commodities Base Metals ETFs 16.0 72.1

Commodities Precious Metals ETFs -67.1 759.7

Commodities Specialty ETFs -154.9 -93.5

Consumer Services ETFs 532.0 -538.4

Energy MLP ETFs -496.6 131.9

Financial Services ETFs 713.9 1,026.2

Global Financial Services ETFs 160.1 357.3

Global Health/Biotechnology ETFs -37.4 7.5

Global Infrastructure ETFs 132.6 218.5

Global Natural Resources ETFs 184.1 432.9

Global Real Estate ETFs 0.1 36.0

Global Science/Technology ETFs 185.7 646.6

Health/Biotechnology ETFs -1,669.9 -32.3

Industrials ETFs -1,421.5 2,249.1

International Real Estate ETFs -113.5 446.5

Natural Resources ETFs -626.9 989.4

Real Estate ETFs -804.3 -1,321.8

Specialty/Miscellaneous ETFs -508.6 519.7

Science &Technology ETFs 867.5 3,179.8

Telecommunication ETFs -22.3 56.1

Utility ETFs -568.0 -6.5

TOTAL -2,626.9 8,292.3

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11

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

ALTERNATIVES ETFsFor the fifth month in six Alternatives ETFs witnessed net outflows, giving back $1.2 billion for February. APs were net sellers of Dedicated Short-Bias ETFs (-$1.2 billion), with Alternative Long/Short Equity ETFs experiencing the only other net outflows of the group, handing back some $122 million. Alternative Event-Driven ETFs (+$63 million) witnessed the largest net inflows of the group. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY), taking in some $1.7 billion, witnessed the largest individual net inflows of the macro-classification, while VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX Short-Term ETN (XIV) handed back $1.9 billion and suffered the largest individual net withdrawals of the group; Credit Suisse shuttered the ETF on February 15 after volatility roiled the markets earlier in the month.

EQUITY ETFsTABLE 9 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF ALTERNATIVES ETFs, FEBRUARY

VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns may not sum because of rounding

FEBRUARY JANUARY

Absolute Return ETFs 2.5 -0.1

Alternative Active Extension 0.0 15.5

Alternative Equity Market Neutral ETFs 1.1 2.6

Alternative Event Driven ETFs 63.4 35.7Alternative Global Macro ETFs 2.5 4.0Alternative Long/Short Equity ETFs -122.3 67.1

Alternative Managed Futures ETFs 26.1 21.0

Alternative Multi-Strategy ETFs 19.9 2.9Dedicated Short Bias ETFs -1,222.4 2,620.8

TOTAL -1,229.2 2,769.3

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12

FUNDMARKET INSIGHT REPORT FEBRUARY 2018

FIXED INCOME ETFsFor the thirty-second month in a row bond ETFs (+$2.1 billion for February) witnessed net inflows. On the taxable bond ETFs side (+$1.9 billion) 16 of the 28 Lipper classifications attracted net new money for the month, while the tax-exempt offerings (+$162 million) reported net inflows into six of the eight classifications. On the taxable side net flows into Core Bond ETFs (+$3.0 billion) and Short U.S. Treasury ETFs (+$2.2 billion) beat those to the other classifications. High Yield ETFs (-$3.1 billion) and Corporate Debt BBB-Rated ETFs (-$3.0 billion) suffered the largest net redemptions of the group. iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), with net inflows of $2.2 billion, attracted the largest individual net inflows of the group, while iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD), handing back some $3.3 billion for February, suffered the largest individual net redemptions. On the tax-exempt side Short Municipal Debt ETFs (+$144 million) attracted the largest net inflows, while General & Insured Municipal Debt ETFs and High Yield Municipal Debt ETFs witnessed the only net outflows of the subgroup (-$62 million and -$14 million, respectively).

FIXED INCOME ETFs

TABLE 10 ESTIMATED NET FLOWS OF MAJOR FIXED INCOME ETF TYPES, FEBRUARY VERSUS JANUARY 2018 ($MIL)

Source: Thomson Reuters Lipper Note: Columns and rows may not sum because of rounding

TAXABLE MUNICIPAL FEBRUARY JANUARY

Long-Term Bond -6,399.1 -22.1 -6,421.2 4,195.3Short & Intermediate 8,296.7 184.4 8,481.1 5,588.9TOTAL 1,897.6 162.3 2,059.9 9,784.2

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