fundamental signals strategy€¦ · quantitative warren buffet: quality at a reasonable price...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Fundamental Signals StrategyDaniel Cohn, Chase Navellier, Thomas Rogers
![Page 2: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Recap
![Page 3: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Excess Returns of “Quality” Stocks: A Behavioral Anomaly Bouchaud, Cilberti, Landier, Simon, Thesmar (2016)
Fundamental Signal Persistence
![Page 4: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The Fundamental Quality Anomaly
Quality Minus Junk Asness, Frazzini, Pedersen (2013)
![Page 5: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Excess Returns of “Quality” Stocks: A Behavioral Anomaly Bouchaud, Cilberti, Landier, Simon, Thesmar (2016)
![Page 6: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Defining “Quality”
Profitability/Growth
Safety Payout
GPOA BAB EISS
ROE IVOL DISS
ROA LEV NPOP
CFOA O-Score
GMAR Z-Score
ACC EVOL
![Page 7: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP)
• As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to the premium paid for said companies
• Accordingly, the historical outperformance of fundamentally quality stocks varies over time depending on the “quality premium”
• Sharpe ratios of 0.7 and 0.9 for the US and Global stock universes were achieved using a basic QARP that used book-to-market as the value indicator
![Page 8: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Enhancing QARP• Defining value and incorporating it into the overall signal
• Finding the ideal weightings between all variables
• Deciding linear or nonlinear combinations (e.g. quality + value vs. quality*value)
• Deciding which categories to focus on
![Page 9: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Data and Research
![Page 10: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Data Preparation• Merging Initial Datasets • PERMNOs
• Data Cleaning • Remove Missing Values • Find and Remove extreme data points
• Preprocessing • Creating 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year future returns • Standardization
![Page 11: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
The Quality Anomaly Illustrated
![Page 12: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Research on Individual Fundamentals• From our Wharton research database, we selected
40 of 70 fundamentals with the potential to indicate one of the four categories of quality
• Using standard assumptions we ran two single linear regressions on each z-scored fundamental versus z-scored future return (3-month and 6-month) for all US stocks
• Filtering for p-values under 0.05, we ranked signal strength for each fundamental by the magnitude of its coefficient and then selected the top 12 fundamentals appearing in both return windows
![Page 13: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Building Our Model
![Page 14: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Why Lasso?• Over 40 predictors and 170,000 data points
• High danger of data snooping or over-fitting training set
• Several highly correlated predictors
• Elastic Net
![Page 15: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Training LASSO• Cross-validated training and validation sets
• Fine tuning hyper parameters
• 4 different variations
• Extracting final models
![Page 16: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Our QARP Signal
• Each coefficient is standardized, as well as the overall signal
• Weights are assigned based on their coefficients in the Lasso Regression
![Page 17: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Portfolio Performance and Next Steps
![Page 18: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Backtesting Results
2013 - Present
2007 - 2010
![Page 19: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Backtesting Results• Portfolio constructed via Markowitz optimization, maximizing
the QARP signal
• From 2013 to the present, we achieved a Sharpe ratio of 0.76
• Constraints: • Maximum level of historical volatility equal to that of SPY • Long US equities only • No equity over 2.5% of portfolio • No leverage
![Page 20: Fundamental Signals Strategy€¦ · Quantitative Warren Buffet: Quality at a Reasonable Price (QARP) • As one would expect, the outperformance of quality is inversely related to](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022050402/5f8014b7c1ebb105cc327519/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Ideas for Expansion• Using volatility correlation in MPT to calculate portfolio risk,
rather than average variance • We searched for the most persistent quality and value signal,
but “nothing lasts forever” • A dynamic research process could enhance performance by discovering
more transient signals as the market mutates over time
• Data mining more fundamentals and applying White’s data snooping “reality check” when evaluating p-values • Performing data transformations to improve the assumptions of
linear regression