fuma saigon-presentation-ho-small
DESCRIPTION
A presentation I held at the Special Anniversary Conference of 16 years of Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management in SAIGON. 17. December 2011.TRANSCRIPT
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SOLVAY in SAIGON
FUTURE MANAGEMENTCHRISTIAN BLUEMELHUBER
SAIGON, DEC 17th 2011
SPECIAL CELEBRATION CONFERENCE
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PAST
FUTUREManagement is about the
our Knowledge is about / from the
and our strategies are developed in the
PRESENT
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ZEIT
�!� �!�
shrinksHERMANN LÜBBE
PRESENT
pastpast time
futurefuturestartsstartsearlierearlierOUT
OF YOUR
���������� �
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FASTER AND FASTER
TIME GOES
available knowledgeavailable knowledgedoublesdoubleseveryevery 7 YEARS
�����
2030but inbut in
everyevery72 DAYS
BASED ON JACQUES ATTALI
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�� �
a holy cow
A Wiggins&Rue!i STUDY
of mgmt
EVER HAD SA<5 PERMILLE
SA FOR MORETHAN 20 YRS
�SA FOR MORETHAN 50 YRS
�40 INDUSTRIES
COMPANIES/SBUs,
sustainablesustainablecompetitivecompetitiveadvantageadvantage
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ANTIQUITY MIDDLE AGES 19TH CENT 1960-2000 TODAY TOMORROW
� �������������
������������
RENAISSANCE
�#��!�$� ��
SCIENCE FICTION ������� �
TREND RESEARCH
SCENARIOS
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scientificforesight
LUCK
following Pillkahn, p25a shorta short historyhistoryfuture studiesfuture studiesofof
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but I think it´s a myth
composer & conducterPeter Drucker said the manager is both
It is very grand and glorious,
HENRYMINTZBERG
Wall Street Journal, Aug 17, 2009
... interruptionManagement is largely about ...
... influencing action... being prepared!
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DOESN´T HAVE A FUTURE...YOUR COMPANY BE AWARE!
YOUR COUNTRYYOUR FAMILY
IT HAS...THREE
OF IT!
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PROBABLEFUTURE
TRENDSPLANING
WILD CARDSEXPERIMENTATION INVENT FUTURE
DESIREDFUTURE
CREATIVITYSURPRISING
FUTURE
thethefuturefuturemanagingmanaging
„��#�A��#"# � „ ��A��#"# � „� ����A��#"# �
FORECASTRADAR
SURPRISE &DREAM
RADAROPPORTUNITYRADAR
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elementselementsfuturefuture
CONSTRAINTS & PARADIMASKNOWLEDGE THAT QUALIFIES AS
CERTAIN programingprogramingof peopleof people
TRENDSCHANGES THAT ARE BASED ON
FACTSpatternpatternrecognitionrecognition
CAOS / WILD CARDSNOT SUBJECT TO
CALCULATION „speculation“„speculation“
PARADISEideal worldsideal worldsHOPEFUL PERSPECTIVES
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PROBABLEFUTURE
TRENDSPLANING
futurefuture ONE„��#�A��#"# �
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one
what arewhat aretrends?trends?3 interpretations3 interpretations
FOLLOWING LIEBL & SCHWARZ, FUTURES 2010
"9-6,:�),9-::�;0-16;<1;1=-�.--416/
;0);�:75-;016/�1:
15879;)6;�
THE «POP» FUTURISTINTERPRETATION
Trends represent the
of a
TIME SERIES
LONG-TERM COMPONENT
THE «QUANTITIVE»APPROACH
TRENDS ARE
SOCIOCULTURAL
INNOVATIONS
THE «ENTREPRENEURIAL»APPROACH
the newnormalization
+
��������������������������������������������two
three
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megatrendsmegatrendsPARADOX
0)4.�41.-�7.
LONG-
)88)9-6;�16
COMPLEXTERM
)97<6,���@-)9:,1..�)9-):�7.�41.-�+<4;<9-��8741;1+:��-+7675@����
)�„/47*)4A�80-676-576
SLOW
��8-9�@-)9
UBIQITOUS
*)+3:4):0�9-:1:;)6+-
+<917<:�4778:�4-),�;7
��#�"� �" ���!
;0);�5)3-:�;9-6,:7�16;-9-:;16/
TIME
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megatrendsmegatrendsMcKINSEY
CoPENHaGENinstiTUTE
M HORX
great rebalancing(power shift)
productivityimperative
global gridconnectedness
pricing the planet(green)
the market state(gvts vs globalization)
ageing population
globalization
technological dev.
acceleration
prosperity
individualizationcommercialization
health & environm
urbanization
ageing population
globalization
woman rule
individualization
urbanization
connectivity
new work:knowledge
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SKATEBOARDINGLINK AESTHETICS & TECHNIQUESOF SURFING TO SKATEBAORING
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INVENTION OF THE URETHANE WHEEL
��������� national Competitions
MAGAZINE: THW QAUTERLY SKATEBOARDER
TONY ALVA. FIRST SKATEBOARDER POP STAR
WORSE DROUGHTS IN HOLLYWOODEMPTY SWIMMING POOLS SERVE AS „HALFPIPES“
FROMDEVIANT TO
normal
trendstrends
FOLLOWING LIEBL & SCHWARZ, FUTURES 2010
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TREND?
learnlearnshouldn´t we (also)shouldn´t we (also)
extremes?extremes?from thefrom the
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green
greener
greenest
����������
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communicate
collaborate
reshaping
���������
cultural
���������what we do��������������� �
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from trend to strategyfrom trend to strategy
�������� COMPETENCES
�� ������ RESOURCEStrendsISSUES
:;9);-/@�.795<4);176
TRIGGER/INSPIRATION FOR
INVESTIGATE MUTUAL RELATIONSHIPS
LIEBL & SCHWARZ
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futurefuture TWO
WILD CARDSEXPERIMENTATION
SURPRISINGFUTURE
„ ��A��#"# �
SURPRISE &OPPORTUNITY
RADAR
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peppered mothpeppered moth
BIRCH TREE
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EXPECTEXPECTtotosomethingsomething
TO BEMENTALLY READY
FOR IT
WEIK & SUTCUFF, P 33
UNEXPECTEDUNEXPECTEDthethe(surprising)(surprising)
BOLTFROM THE BLUENO PRIOR MODEL
NO HINT IT WAS COMING
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wild cards...wild cards...������!� ��"�������������# �����"��"��!��!!#����"����
!#����$��"!�#!#���'�� �
IMPROBABLE�#"�%�������#�����$���� ��������������"�����!��#����!
�� �� ����(�"������!"�������� !
����"�"���!�������
SERIOUS,DESCTRUCTIVECATASTROPHIC
ANOMALOUSNOT PREDICTABLE
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NOBODY GETSJUSTICE.
PEOPLE ONLY GET
GOOD OR BADLUCK ORSON WELLS
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genericstrategiesCOST LEADERDIFFERENTIATOR
NICH PLAYER
offensivestrategies
CHANGESTRUCTURES &BEHAVIOUR
STRATEGY AS
CreaTINGFit
AMONG ALL ACTIVITIESBTW RESOURCES
AND MARKETS
STRATEGY 1.0 STRATEGY 2.0 STRATEGY 3.0
CAN STRATEGYBE PLANNED?
LUCKAS SUCCESS
DRIVER
SPERMPREPAREDNESS
FLEXIBILITY
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«luck favors the prepared mind»
FLUKE LUCKexperi
1 2 3ment
PREDICTED AT ALLCANNOT BE
��������
ACT PROACTIVELY
!� ������"'
� ���
"�$�
PROMOTEEXPLOIT
DISCOVER/PRODUCE
-?7/-67<: -6,7/-67<:
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AT ANY ONE TIME, RUN SCORES OF EXPERIMENTS......SEE WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DOESN´T, BACK THE WINNERS, AND UNSENITMENTALLY KILL OFF THE LOSERSERIC BEINHOCKER (ABOUT CAPITAL ONE), SLOAN MGMT REV 99.
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futurefuture THREEINVENT FUTURE
DESIREDFUTURE
CREATIVITY
„� ����A��#"# �
DREAMRADAR
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PRESENTpast future
PATTERN RECOGNITION
MODELS OF THE FUTURE
HISTORICAL ANAL.
about theabout thefuturefuture
ideasideas
�'��&�� "!
�'��&�� "!�'�„������A
�'��&�� "!!%� ����
DESIGNED; CENTERED ON FUTURE
(CAUSAL) LOGIC. CENTERED ON PASTTIME SERIES. CENTERED ON PAST
FANTASY, IMAGINATION
CENTERED ON PAST & MODELS
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JEAN-LUC GODARD
IT´S NOT WHERE YOU TAKE THINGS FROMIT´S WHERE YOU TAKE THEM TO.
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bETTER nCRAFT MAN
ePLAYER
DIFFERENTMANAGER
POSITIONING CONCEPTINGIMPROVING
W
improveimprove transformtransform fresh startfresh start����� �����"����#"# ����
5)3-�1;���""� "�������%897/9-::
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FAST FOOD SANSHAMBURGER
CREATIVEDESTRUCTIONCREATIVE
DESTRUCTION
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futurefutureYOUR��!"����"����!"���
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TAUTOLOGY
INNOVATION
TRANSFORMATIONTHE STABLE
THE „NEW“
THE IDEAL
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FROM %��"��!
TO
FROM
ACCEPTABLEinnovation
%��"��!POSSIBLE
%��"��!mktg rulesmktg rules
NECESSARYCREATE
acceptance
CHANGEculture
MOMARKET
ORIENTATION
FMFUTURE
MEMORY
innovation
futurefuture
todaytoday
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PREPARE THEMIND
EJGX["ECOCTQ FCXKF"RCNOGT
CONCEPT
FM
ÜBERRASCHUNG
FUTURE
MEMORY
ICWNVKGT
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FUTUREFUTUREmemorymemory
THINKINGFUTURE
-81:7,1+
8972-+;�:-4.16;7�.<;<9-
THINKINGFUTURE
SEMANTIC
/-6-9)4�-=-6;:
networkmodel
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9),1+)4�6->�,-:1/6
networkmodel
INVERSE «U»
new
idea
new
«planted»
preparedmind
-�/��+76+-8;�+)9-�/��01/0�.):0176
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thank you!
BLUEMELHUBER.DE