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2011/SOM1/EWG/WKSP3/007 Agenda Item: III-C- (a)

Fuel Economy Standards: How Far? How Fast? How Wide? How Best

Submitted by: International Council on Clean

Transportation (ICCT)

APEC Cooperative Energy Efficiency Design for Sustainability - Energy Efficient

Urban Passenger TransportationSan Francisco, United States

14–16 September 2011

 

1

Fuel Economy Standards: HowFar? How Fast? How Wide?

How Best?

Michael P. Walsh“Energy Efficient Urban Passenger

Transportation”

San Francisco24 September, 2011

International Council on CleanTransportation

Goal of the ICCT is todramatically reduceconventional pollutantand greenhouse gasemissions from personal,public and goodstransportation in order toimprove air quality andhuman health, andmitigate climate change.

WWW.THEICCT.ORG

Transportation Fuel Consumptionis Growing Rapidly

2

Historical Fleet CO2 Emissions Performance AndCurrent Or Proposed Standards

We Are Starting To Address The Growth

US 2025:107

EU 2020: 95

Japan 2020: 105

China 2020: 117

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

GR

AM

SC

O2

PE

RK

ILO

ME

TE

RN

OR

MA

LIZ

ED

TO

NE

DC

TE

ST

CY

CL

E

US-LDV

California-LDV

Canada-LDV

EU

Japan

China

S. Korea

Australia

Solid dots and lines: historical performanceSolid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets

Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targetsHollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be lower.[2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.

Historical Fleet Fuel Consumption Performance AndCurrent Or Proposed StandardsBut We Have A Long Way To Go

US: 4.6

EU: 4.1

Japan: 4.5

China: 5.0

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

LIT

ER

PE

RH

UN

DR

ED

KIL

OM

ET

ER

NO

RM

AL

IZE

DT

ON

ED

CT

ES

TC

YC

LE

US-LDV

California-LDV

Canada-LDV

EU

Japan

China

S. Korea

Australia

[1] China's target reflects gasoline fleet scenario. If including other fuel types, the target will be higher.[2] US and Canada light-duty vehicles include light-commercial vehicles.

Solid dots and lines: historical performanceSolid dots and dashed lines: enacted targetsSolid dots and dotted lines: proposed targetsHollow dots and dotted lines: unannounced proposal

Standard Design: Mass Reduction TechnologySize Based Standards Incentivize Lightweighting

• Take a particular technology package, for example:

– Efficiency (15% GHG reduction) gasoline direct injection, turbocharging, new transmission

– Mass reduction (10% mass reduction 6% GHG reduction) via lightweight materials

• Size-based approach fully rewards lightweighting; weight-based does not

7

175

195

215

235

255

275

40.5 42 43.5 45 46.5

Vehicle footprint (ft2)

GH

Gem

issi

on

rate

(gC

O2

e/m

i)

Toyota PC models (MY2008)

Toyota PC sales-wtd average (MY2008)Approximate PC 2016 standard

Corolla

Camry

Fleet

average

175

195

215

235

255

275

2250 2500 2750 3000 3250

Vehicle weight (lb)

GH

Gem

issi

on

rate

(gC

O2

e/m

i) Toyota PC models (MY2008)Toyota PC sales-wtd average (MY2008)Hypothetical wt-based PC 2016 standard

Corolla

Camry

Fleet

average

Weight-based design:– Efficiency: 34-41 g CO2/mi benefit

– Lightweighting: only 4-5 g CO2/mi compliance benefit

– Lightweighting results in more stringent standard

Size-based design:– Efficiency: 34-41 g CO2/mi benefit

– Lightweighting: 13-15 g CO2/mi actual benefit

– Plus potential for further optimization

Fiscal Measures Are Also Very ImportantImpact Of French Bonus-Malus On Car Market

Shift

3

Programs Adopted To Date AreJust Starting To Turn The Corner

Tremendous Potential Still Exists ForIncreasing Efficiency, Reducing CO2

• Technical efficiency low-CO2 options

– Petroleum efficiency

• Gasoline

• Diesel

• Hybrid

– Alternative fuels

• Compressed natural gas

• Biofuels

– Electric-drive

• Plug-in hybrid electric

• Electric

• Fuel cell electric

• Petroleum-fueled vehicles will be dominant for many years

– The most near-term GHG reduction potential, most affordable, lowestconsumer payback period, lowest cost-per-ton CO2 are petroleum efficiencyoptions

10

Electric

Turbo

Hybrid

Plug-in hybrid

Fuel cell

Stop-start

Advancedlightweightmaterials

Low rollingresistance tires

Aerodynamics

Efficientaccessories

Directinjection

Diesel

6+ Speed

All Aspects of the Vehicle HavePotential For Improvement

Efficiency and Low-CO2

Technologies

12

What efficiency technologies are available for conventional vehicles?– All of these are being deployed today by automakers around to world

CO2

4

Increased Efficiency: Near-Term

• Major incremental efficiency improvement comes at modest cost

– engine, transmission, and vehicle load reduction technologies willproliferate for global 2015-2016 standards

– Technologies with 20-25% CO2 decrease (+25-33% in km/L) haveconsumer payback periods of 2-3 years

13

Electric

Turbocharging

Hybrid

Plug-in hybrid

Fuel cell

Stop-start

Advanced lightweight materials

Low rolling resistance tires

Aerodynamics

Efficient accessories

Direct injection

Compression ignition

6+ speed transmission

Variable valve timing

Cylinder deactivation

Variable valve lift

Dual clutch transmission

Cooled EGR

Lean-burn

Data from US EPA, 2010 for rulemaking greenhouse gas standards for 2012-2016 vehicles

Increased Efficiency: Mid-Term

• More exciting hybrid models arrive every year◦ Hybrids now span across compacts, sedans, crossovers, large SUVs, pickups

◦ Hybrids have much higher efficiency: 40-100% greater km/L (30-50% lower CO2)

◦ Hybrids are 3% of US market today; but costs decrease with volume, new entries

14

Model year 2008 vehicle data from US EPA data on US city/highway test procedure; Hybrid models areexisting and announced model year 2008-2011 hybrid models

Hybrid Technology: GHG Reduction

15

Hybrid vehicle models commercialized in U.S.– Span vehicles: compacts, sedans, crossovers, large SUVs, pickups

– Average 33% CO2/mi reduction, 50% mpg increase vs. similar non-hybrids

Source: CARB 2010

Hybrid Vehicle Technology: Emissions

16

Hybrids well-positioned for new CO2 and criteria pollutant standards– Current hybrid models tend to offer 25-30% CO2 decrease and lowest NOx/HC

– Future standards (e.g., in US, California) will push CO2, as well as NOx/HC, lower

.

2022

20

16

Notes: data from EPA, 2010. Future year CO2 reduction based on EPA/NHTSA adopted 2016 standards; FutureTotal hydrocarbon and oxides of nitrogen (THC+NOx) based on proposed California LEVIII criteria pollutantstandards for 2022 for NMOG and NOx

5

Hybrid Technology Costs

• Hybrid component costs continue to come down

– This is happening due to innovation, learning, volume, competitive supplier base

– Hybrids become more cost-competitive over time

17Data sources: EPA, 2010; EPA/NHTSA/CARB, 2010

Increased Efficiency: Long-Term

Gradually over the long-term, electric drive is expected to take off– Today’s stop-start and hybrids will offer a bridge to plug-in electric vehicles

– But… according to nearly every consulting and technical research study -

• Of new vehicles in 2020-2025, over 90% still use petroleum fuels

• In optimistic cases, there are 5-10% full electric vehicles by 2025

18

Automobile CO2 Emissions: Long-Term

How might we achieve deeper, long-term CO2 cuts by 2050? Advanced technology will be required (e.g., efficiency, hybrids, electric, biofuels)

We will need to change travel behavior, land use patterns, not just technology

19

Efficiency

Hybrids

Biofuels

Electric

Travel demand?

Electrification: New Model Introduction

• In just the next several years…

– Every major automaker will have several hybrid models

– Every major automaker will have several plug-in electric vehicles

– Some major automakers will be running major fuel cell vehicle demonstrations

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0.5 

1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  2013 

Introduc on year 

Hybrid 

Plug‐in hybrid 

Electric vehicle 

Fuel cell (demo) 

Honda 

Toyota 

Ford 

GM 

Nissan 

Mercedes 

BMW 

VW‐Audi 

Hyundai‐Kia 

Other 

Insight I 

GS  HS250h Highlander 

RX 

Camry Prius I 

CR‐Z Accord Civic 

LS  CT200h 

Clarity 

A F‐Cell 

B F‐Cell 

Tucson 

Silverado 

Escape  Mariner  Fusion 

Vue  LaCrosse Tahoe Aura 

Malibu 

Escalade 

Al ma M35h 

ML450 S400 

Sonata 

Cayenne 

Aspen 

Touraeg 

A6 

Je a 

Op ma 

Prius 

iQ 

Transit 

Focus Energi 

Fit 

7‐Series 

X6 

Volt 

MegaCity 

Smart 

Mini 

Leaf 

Coda 

Fisker 

IMiEV 

Tesla 

500 

BlueOn 

MKZ 

Urban 

Infini  

Plug‐in 

BYD  Th!nk 

C‐Max 

Equinox 

Bright 

E‐up 

V 

Rav4 

Insight II 

Prius II  Prius III 

PX F3DM 

FCHV 

Q5 

C 

6

Conclusions

Automakers continuously innovate and compete to deliver a fullrange of efficiency technologies

◦ Incremental gasoline and diesel efficiency technologies…

Are emerging today and will dominate the 2010-2020 market

Reduce CO2 by about 25-30% (increase km/L by about 33-40%)

Have low-cost to consumers, with quick 2-3 year payback periods

◦ New advanced technologies are more exciting every year

Hybrid, plug-in electric vehicles: new models, more volume, costs decrease

Major shift to electric-drive vehicles in the 2020-2030 timeframe

Need robust policies to promote near- and long-term efficiency

◦ Technology-forcing long-term CO2/efficiency performance standardscan push all efficiency technologies with ample lead-time

◦ Additional and complimentary policies can also be critical (e.g.,feebates, fuel taxes, infrastructure investment, consumer incentives)

21

Fuel Economy Standards

• How Far? As far as technologicallyfeasible and cost effective.

• How Fast? As fast as we can and astechnology advances.

• How Wide? All major vehicle marketstoday; everywhere as soon as possible

• How Best? Sized based standardscoupled with economic incentives