fuel cell developing countries

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Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 695701

www.elsevier.com/locate/ijhydene

Fuel cells for distributed generation in developingcountriesan analysis

Ausilio Bauena;b;, David Harta, Adam Chaseb

aImperial College Centre For Energy Policy and Technology, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2BP, UKbE4tech (UK) Ltd., 46 Princes Gardens, London SW7 1NA, UK

AbstractFuel cells are still in development as power generation technologies. They are potentially ecient and low-emissions power

generation technologies with a wide range of applications. Their deployment world wide and in developing countries in

particular could result in mitigation of future greenhouse gas emissions and possibly other environmental and social benets.

The economics of the systems and their competitiveness with other power generation systems will be heavily dependent on

local costs and infrastructure.

Modelling, based energy demand projection and on fuel cell demand curves derived from expert interviews, suggests that

worldwide, projected future cost reductions in fuel cells could result in fuel cell penetration of up to 50% of the world

distributed generation market by 2020. This penetration, coupled with the use of a mix of low-carbon fuels, such as natural

gas, would result in signicant avoided emissions of CO2 over the same period.

Also, a comparison of the levelised costs of generation for the Philippines and South Africa suggests that some fuel cell

technologies could become competitive with centralised generation within the next decade.

Assuming that fuel cell durability can be demonstrated, the potential for fuel cells to be introduced into distributed generationin certain developing countries appears high, from a technical, economic and environmental perspective.

? 2003 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Fuel cell; Distributed generation; Developing countries; CO2 reductions; Economics; Global environment facility

1. Introduction

Fuel cells (FCs) have been identied by the Global Envi-

ronment Facility (GEF) as a promising technology for future

greenhouse gas emissions reductions in developing coun-tries. However, FCs are not yet commercially viable outside

high-cost niche applications, and FC systems are still being

proven. Funding their deployment in developing countries

at this early stage must be clearly justied.

Fuel cell systems oer potentially large societal benets.

They can be more ecient than conventional technologies,

emit signicantly less greenhouse gases and other pollutants

aecting air quality, and produce lower levels of noise. In

Corresponding author. Tel.: +44-2075949332.

E-mail address: [email protected] (A. Bauen).

many GEF programme countries they could be more reliable

than grid-supplied electricity.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

implemented a study [1] for the GEF with the United

Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Interna-tional Finance Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank as exe-

cuting agencies. Imperial College acted as a third supporting

agency. The study addressed the technical and commercial

readiness of the technology, potential emissions reductions

arising from its use, and the suitability of developing coun-

try markets for early FC system deployment. This paper

describes the potential of FC systems in distributed gen-

eration applications and provides indicative potential CO2savings arising from their use, as well as other potential

emissions reductions. An economic analysis of FCs is pro-

vided for two developing country markets: South Africa

and the Philippines.

0360-3199/03/$ 30.00 ? 2003 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/S0360-3199(02)00248-3
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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A. Bauen et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 695 701 697

Table 2

Fuel cell system cost estimates for dierent capacity ranges (in $=kWe installed)

Present 2005 2010 2015 2020

1100 kW 5285 3819 1624 1079 901

100 kW1 MW 6231 3920 1777 1230 1041

110 MW 7250 3983 1813 1249 1087

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

System cost [$/k We]

DGmarket

penetration[%]

1-100kW

100kW-1MW

1-10MW

Fig. 1. Estimated fuel cell system demand curve.

The FCDG potential is calculated from a forecast of DG

potential derived from the overall growth in electricity

generating capacity. The model forecasts energy generating

capacity rather than energy generated, since capacity is the

key determinant of FC sales. The three modules are:

1. The total generating capacity scenario module,

2. The distributed generation capacity scenario module,

3. The fuel cell distributed generation scenario module.

The rst module estimates new capacity additions between1997 and 2020, based on the IEA Reference Case sce-

nario [2]. New installed capacity additions are estimated on

a country/regional basis using estimates from [5,4,9]. The

estimates are a function of demand growth and capacity

replacements, the latter estimated to range between 0.2%

and 1.5% of installed capacity.

Module 2 assesses DG capacity in ve distinct market

segments from 1997 to 2020 before aggregating the capaci-

ties to provide the total installed DG capacity on a regional

basis. The market segments include a breakdown of

installed DG capacity in three capacity ranges (1100 kW;

100 kW1 MW; 110 MW).

Three primary market segments have been used to char-

acterise the market for DG:

shift away from centralised power by utilities,

extended electrication to o-grid locations,

residential/Community applications, Commercial

applications and Industrial applications.

The rst addresses the primarily economic factors that may

lead electricity companies to add new capacity in the form

of DG as opposed to large centralised plant [ 5], while thesecond considers the large proportion of the population of

many world regions without access to reliable electricity.

The number of households that do not have access to reliable

electricity [6] is used as a basis to estimate the DG capac-

ity that could extend electrication to o-grid locations. The

third segment considers the growth rates in dierent appli-

cations, combined heat and power applications in particular,

based on data from [6,10].

The nal module calculates the FC installed capacity in

the market segments and capacity ranges considered, and

the total FCDG installed capacity by region/country over the

time period 19972020.


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698 A. Bauen et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 695 701

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2005 2010 2015 2020

Capacity[GW]

Middle East

Africa

Other Latin America

Brazil

Other South Asia

India

East Asia

China

Other Transition Economies

Russia

OECD Pacific

OECD Europe

North America

0.11GW

Fig. 2. Estimated growth in FCDG electrical capacity to 2020 with regional breakdown.

3. Global fuel cell decentralised generation market

potential

Global installed electrical capacity is estimated to increase

to 5515 GW in 2020 [2]. This could result in about 3055 GW

of new installed capacity, inclusive of replacement capacity,

by 2020 [7].

The results of the model suggest that cumulative decen-

tralised generation capacity below 10 MW could rise byabout 185 GW [7]. Total installed FCDG capacity could

grow from about 110 MW in the year 2005 to about 95 GW

by 2020, representing 50% of distributed generation capac-

ity and 3% of total installed capacity. A breakdown of FCDG

electrical capacity by region or country considered is shown

in Fig. 2.

In the case of China, for example, about 500 GW of new

installed electrical capacity is expected by the year 2020, of

which about 5% could consist of distributed generation ca-

pacity below 10 MW. FCDG could amount to about 9:4 GW

of installed electrical capacity by 2020, representing about

1.2% of total installed capacity and over a third of distributed

generation capacity.The FCDG analysis is particularly sensitive to changes in

assumptions in the following data categories:

new capacity additions,

DG penetration in market segments considered,

fuel cell costs, and

fuel cell market share of decentralised generation market

as a function of fuel cell cost (the shape of the demand

curve).

For the analysis, it has been assumed that FCDG

penetration will decrease proportionally with new capacity

Table 3

Assumptions on eciency and heat to power ratios

El. eciency (%) H :P ratio

1100 kW 40 1

100 kW1 MW 50 0.6

110 MW 60 0.3

additions and with DG penetration in market segments con-

sidered. Equally, higher FC costs and greater competition

from other technologies would reduce FCDG penetra-

tion.

4. Potential impacts on CO2 and other emissions

The outcomes of the FCDG market assessment above

provide a basis for estimating the greenhouse gas benets

that may result from the introduction of FCs into stationary

applications, compared to the generating mix projected in[2]. The benet of operating FCs in combined heat and

power (CHP) applications is accounted for in the analysis.

To allow the analysis to be conducted, assumptions have

been made regarding the electrical eciency and heat to

power ratio (H :Pratio) of FC systems (shown in Table 3),

and the fuels on which they operate.

It has been assumed that 50% of the installed capacity

is operating in combined heat and power mode, and that

80% natural gas and 20% carbon neutral fuels are used.

The latter include renewable energy in the form of biomass

fuels, and hydrogen produced from electrolysis either using

renewable power or fossil fuels with carbon sequestration.


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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

NorthAmerica

OECDEurope

OECDPacific

Russia

OtherTransitionEconomies

China

EastAsia

India

OtherSouthAsia

Brazil

Oth

erLatinAmerica

Africa

MiddleEast

AvoidedCO2e

missions[Mt]

Fig. 3. Potential avoided CO2 emissions to 2020 from introduction of FCDG (absolute).

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

NorthAmerica

OECDEurope

OECDPacific

Russia

OtherTransitionEconomies

China

EastAsia

India

Oth

erSouthAsia

Brazil

Other

LatinAmerica

Africa

MiddleEast

AvoidedCO2emis

sions[%]

Fig. 4. Potential avoided CO2 emissions to 2020 from introduction of FCDG (relative).

Figs. 3 and 4 show the resulting absolute and relative global

reductions in CO2 emissions associated with the FCDG

introduction modelled above compared to the generating

mix projected in the IEA World Energy Model Reference

Case [2]. Table 4 provides a detailed analysis of dierent

distributed generation fuel chains.


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700 A. Bauen et al. / International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (2003) 695 701

Table 4

Fuel chains calculations and comparisons

Application Options Fuel GHG emissions [g/kWh] Other emissions [g/kWh]

CO2 CH4 NOx SOx PM CO NMHC

Remote power Engine Diesel 906.8 0.26 12.6 2.0 0.15 0.65 2.1

50 kW PEMFC Diesel 971.5 0.16 0.39 0.48 0.007 0.068 0.84

SOFC Diesel 680.1 0.11 0.27 0.34 0.005 0.048 0.59

PEMFC MeOH fossil-NG 675.3 0.06 0.24 0.16 0.007 0.077 0.15

SOFC MeOH fossil-NG 487.7 0.04 0.18 0.11 0.005 0.056 0.11

PEMFC Wind-hydrogen 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00

Grid-connected power Engine Diesel 704.6 0.18 9.8 1.5 0.11 0.49 1.7

250 kW Gas 515.9 0.35 2.9 0.014 0.002 2.4 0.22

Turbine Gas 714.3 1.01 0.70 0.020 0.003 0.72 0.31

PAFC Gas 464.3 0.28 0.051 0.011 0.006 0.019 0.11

PEMFC Gas 488.8 0.37 0.068 0.014 0.008 0.033 0.14

SOFC Gas 337.7 0.23 0.033 0.007 0 0.007 0.080

SOFC/GT Gas 273.1 0.19 0.026 0.006 0 0.005 0.065

Commercial Engine Diesel 704.6 0.18 9.8 1.5 0.11 0.49 1.7

250 kW Gas 515.9 0.35 2.9 0.014 0.002 2.4 0.22

Turbine Gas 714.3 1.01 0.70 0.020 0.003 0.72 0.31

PAFC Gas 464.3 0.28 0.051 0.011 0.006 0.019 0.11

SOFC Gas 337.7 0.23 0.033 0.007 0 0.007 0.080

SOFC Diesel 680.1 0.11 0.27 0.34 0.005 0.048 0.59

Industrial Engine Gas 515.9 0.35 2.9 0.014 0.002 2.4 0.22

1 MW Turbine Gas 619.1 0.88 0.60 0.017 0.003 0.63 0.27

SOFC Gas 337.7 0.23 0.033 0.007 0 0.007 0.080

SOFC/GT Gas 273.1 0.19 0.026 0.006 0 0.005 0.065

5. Economic analysis

Following the market and emissions analyses, a specic

economic analysis was undertaken to assess some of the

benets and costs for countries looking to adopt FC tech-

nologies [8]. Three fuel cell technologies were examined,

proton exchange membrane (PEMFC), molten carbonate

(MCFC), and solid oxide (SOFC), based on cost projections

for the period 20032005. The three technologies were

examined in two distinct cost environments. In one, most of

the future expansion in the electric power system is based onliquid fuels with a high average cost. In the second, system

expansion is based largely on solid fuels, with gas available

by pipeline. The Philippines and South Africa were taken

to represent these two cases, respectively. In both cases, the

FC plant was assumed to be installed at the interface of the

transmission and distribution systems.

The high initial capital cost and operation and mainte-

nance cost negatively aect FC system generation costs com-

pared to central power alternatives. However, FC systems

may present cost savings with regard to transmission and dis-

tribution energy losses and infrastructure costs. Generally,

the high initial capital costs of the FC technology, MCFC

and SOFC in particular, oset savings that accrue from

location in the subtransmission system and from higher fuel

conversion eciencies relative to conventional genera-

tion alternatives and, where relevant, PEMFC. This implies

the need for nancial support that will vary according to the

FC technology considered and geographic location.

While the present analysis compares FCDG systems to

conventional central power station systems, there are a num-

ber of other applications that would require detailed analysis

and where FCs could result in economic and environmental

benets, such as industrial and commercial combined heatand power applications.

5.1. Levelised costs of generation

In the table below, the levelised economic costs of gen-

eration are shown relative to central station power without

consideration of potential savings in transmission and distri-

bution of electricity. For some cases, notably the SOFC and

PEMFC optimistic cases, the FC cost of generation com-

pares favourably with base-load generation. Also, FC cost of

generation is likely to compare favourably with conventional

peak period generation technology in many cases. (Table 5)


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