ftth @ last

Peter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

ca-global.org

FTTH @

Last ?

cochrane.org.uk

Friday, 13 January 12

The debate has lasted a long long time...


What we know for sure!


There are no silver bullets!


No killer apps!


No ‘one’ topology or ‘one’ technology !


There are no mysteries either - we have known sufficient for decades to make the right choices !


Decades of operating experience, roll outs, studies, and engineering give us 20:20 vision !


Long lines optical fibre

•Revolutionised telecoms

•Sidelined microwave radio

•Sidelined satellites

•Enabled the internet

•Reduced manpower > 80%

•Reduced faults > 99%

•Increased capacity > 106

•Vastly reduced costs

•Vastly improved profit margins


Local loop optical fibre

• Technically viable 1984

• Economically viable 1986

• In manufacture 1990

• Far East roll out ~1993

• UK roll out ~1991

• UK cancellation 1991


What was on offer

• Reduced switch sites >90%

• Reduced staffing > 70%

• Reduced truck rolls > 95%

• Infinite bandwidth

• Endless upgradability

• Remote programability

• Customer autonomy

• Vastly reduced costs

• Vastly improved profit margin

• New business opportunities


How big an investment?

In 1992 - for an EU Telco only

3 - 5 years of profit !


What went wrong ?

•Vested interests

•Limited thinking

•A lack of real understanding

- technology

- economics

- customers

- markets

•The false promise of copper

•An inability to change


...and a string of really d u m b q u e s t i o n s followed...

Why would anyone want :-

• 64kbit/s

• 256kbit/s

• 1Mbit/s

• 10Mbit/s

• 100Mbit/s

• 1000Mbit/s

...and what would they use it for ?


Can you imagine....

Why do you want to travel at:-

• 20km/h

• 40km/h

• 60km/h

• 80km/h

• 100km/h

• 120km/h

...and what are you going to use

this car for ?


And the specification....

Up to 100 km/l

Depends on driving conditions, a strong tail wind, and long downhill slope


It is as if an industry chose to ignore all ev idence , market pressure, customer demand, IT progress & the next industrial revolution...


So perhaps we should be looking at the bigger picture...


Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models...


Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges won’t cure this problem..


We have to stop doing things like this and find planet (and p e o p l e ) f r i e n d l y alternatives...


Underu sed v i deo conference is a sign of the lack of network b a n d w i d t h a n d connectivity...

...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology !


Home, remote, and working on the move are obvious winners too...

...but only if you can get the bandwidth and connectivity you need...


But there is widespread f r u s t r a t i o n a t t h e extremely low bandwidth and poor connectivity available today ...


It undermines and p r e v e n t s t h e widespread use of the latest technologies...


< 7 % of internet ready TV sets can gain access at sufficient speed to be useable...


I collected these test results over the past year as I t r a v e l l e d t h e planet...

Global average

Global average


I collected these test results over the past year as I t r a v e l l e d t h e planet...

But IT is

not an asy

mmetric

world !!

Global average

Global average


Bandwidth & connectivity present the ultimate road block to our progress...


Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society...


I only have time to illustrate this with a few samples of some of the biggest changes on the horizon....


It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution

BioNano

IT + AI


It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution

BioNano

IT + AI

This is where all the real action is going to be


Moving on from bulk materials and the d e s t r u c t i o n o f resources...

. . . 3 D p r i n t i n g i s g o i n g mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office

and home


It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize complex s t ruc tures , and

integrated components...


In the extreme it will change everything...

...and we have to think in terms of shipping designs and not goods...


OPEN

Software

Networks

Access

Hardware


OPEN

Software

Networks

Access

Hardware

Design

Development

Distribution

Innovation


Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities...


Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function...


Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care...

...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race...


We can now manipulate individual atoms and program cell by cell...


And our machines are designing machines...


Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality...


AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud...


And there is so much more...

• Social nets use GPS to go real

• Machine to machine + robotics

• Telepresence for maintenance

• Logistics and RFID + tracking

• Vehicle and people tracking

• Appliance and device tracking

• Dynamic energy management

• Interactive books & newspapers

• Interactive media

• The death of radio, TV, print +++


Huh !

Run that past me one m o r e t i m e : T h e economic case for FTTH is unproven ??


No one is seeing or forecasting a downturn in net traffic...


The ‘potential’ gap is huge for new services and new applications...


N e w t h i n k i n g i s required, but there are exemplar companies and countries from which to learn...

• Japan

• Korea

• China

• Scandinavia

• ++++

• Jersey (Channel Islands


The biggest challenges f a c i n g t h e n e t c o industry ?

• History

• Old mindsets

• Old models

• Existing operations

• Vested interests

• Change


The most recent net/telco transformation...

• 1Gbit/s bi-directional

• 100% ducted - no overhead

• WiFi + 3G in every terminal

• Fibre to every company completed

• FTTH roll out underway


A few specifics...

• Fibre roll from periphery to core

• Address high net worths first

• Small housing clusters next

• Encourage self install

• Encourage community action

• 100% Ethernet

• 1 NGN for fixed & mobile

• Point to point fibre

• Office grade equipment

• Mobile only - SIP on demand

• PSTN + MPLS Closure Friday, 13 January 12

Customer access...

• Open access 3G

• Open access WiFi

• Upgrade to 4/5G later

• Guard the fibre connection

• Leave all RG45 access open

• Get customers to wire their own


The island-wide vision...

• FTTH & Office @ 1Gbit/s

• Hybrid wireless where necessary

•Seamless wireless access everywhere

• Open to all users on all devices

• 3G @ 14Mbit/s

• 4G, 5G when available

• WiFi @ > 50Mbit/s

• WiMax as required


And migrate the business model into new services...


And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry...

...is there more?


Oh yes , and it d e m a n d s e v e n more bandwidth and connectivity?


Oh yes , and it d e m a n d s e v e n more bandwidth and connectivity?

Where you are ?Where you have been ?Where you are likely to be going to ?Who you have met ?Who you are going to meet ?Who you call ?Who calls you ?Who you TXT - IM - Link ?All your contactsAll your urlsAll you passwordsWhat you are doing now ?What have you done in the past ?What games you play ?What apps you use ?What music you listen to...?What you watch...?What you read...?++++++++++


And the £, $, € is inthe MetaData...


Thank You

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s


ftth @ last

Technology

d e n c e

t e sfriday

e trmthe

reduced stafng

reduced faults

new models

e x s t r u c t u

cochranea s s o c