fta’s transit economic requirements model (term)
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FTA’s Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM). John D. Giorgis Federal Transit Administration Director, Office of Strategic Planning . Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
FTA’s Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM)
John D. GiorgisFederal Transit Administration
Director, Office of Strategic Planning
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Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM)
• TERM assesses the current physical condition of the nation’s transit assets and long-terminvestment needs to achieve different targets
– FTA’s national-level capital needs analysis tool
• Designed for analysis of:– State of Good Repair (SGR) backlog– Average asset conditions – 20-year reinvestment & expansion needs– Impact of different funding levels– Impact of Cost/Benefit criteria– Asset life expectancy
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How Does TERM Lite Work?
• Asset conditions and quantities
• Cost to replace
Asset Inventory
• When to rehab & replace
• Funding• Priorities
Investment Policy • SGR backlog
• Asset conditions• Reinvestment
needs• Prioritized plan
SGR Forecast
What do I own & what condition is it in?
What would I like to do, how much funding do I have, what are my priorities?
What are my potential backlog, condition and performance outcomes?
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TERM Asset Database Includes All Asset Types
VehicleFleets
Equipment / Furnishings
Systems
TransportationNetworks
Transit Asset Database
Stations / Facilities
- Guideway- Track- Dedicated Lanes
- Electrification- Communications- Control Systems
- Administration- Maintenance- Passenger
- Maintenance Equip.- Computers- Elevators / Escalators
- Rail- Buses / Vans /- Non-Revenue
New Technologies
- AVL / CAD / APC- Real Time Info
NTD data
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Decay Curves: Asset Condition vs. Age
Condition from onsite inspections plotted against age
Rating criteria defined for more than 40 bus components
Use condition 2.5 as the definition for end of useful life
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Expected Life using Condition 2.5 Threshold
SGR Backlog
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Capital Reinvestment Needs Forecast - SGR Backlog
SGR Back-log
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029$0
$10,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
$70,000,000,000
$80,000,000,000
$90,000,000,000 SGR Backlog and 20 Year Needs: US Transit
Other
Bus
Rail
SGR Back-log $77.7B
Avg. Annual Investment to Maintain SGR After Backlog
is Eliminated is $14.4B
Evaluate reinvestment backlog and
out-year replacement
needs
$77.7 B backlog$14.4 B average
= 5.4 years behind
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TERMLite
• TERM for local or regional transit agencies
• Well-documented and user friendly, training is available
• For local long-term capital planning analysis
• MS Access application• Free through FTA• Comparable to HERS-St
TERM vs. TERM Lite
Capability TERM TERM-Lite
Level of Analysis
National Local / Regional
Intended User Group
FTA Local operators
Life Cycle Driver
Condition (estimated)
Age
Prioritization Benefit-cost analysis
User defined criteria
Output Format
Access Tables Excel
Output (current and forecast)
SGR backlogAsset conditions20-yr reinvestment needs
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TERM Lite: Support for Capital Planning TERM Lite Capabilities
Function Question Addressed TERM OutputSGR Monitoring Where are we
today?Current SGR backlogAsset conditions
SGR Management (“What if” Analysis)
Where can I be tomorrow?
Is backlog increasing / decreasing?What level of investment to attain SGR in 10
years? 20 years?How will change in backlog impact service
reliability? O&M Costs?Long-Term Capital Plan Support
How should I prioritize limited investment dollars?
Multi-criteria prioritization rankingsLong term SGR plan
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Excel Export: Performance Forecast
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
In-S
ervi
ce Fa
ilure
s Rel
ative
to 2
010
Revenue Vehicle Service Failures (2010 = 100%)
Maintain Current Spending
Maintain Current Backlog
10 Years to SGR
Financially Unconstrained
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Flee
t Mai
nten
ance
Cos
tsRe
lativ
e to
201
0
Fleet Maintenance Costs (2010 = 100%)
Maintain Current Spending
Maintain Current Backlog
10 Years to SGR
Financially Unconstrained
Metrics provide performance
implications of alternative prioritizations
and expenditure levels
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Questions?
John D. GiorgisFederal Transit AdministrationDirector, Office of Strategic [email protected]