ft & kpmg international brexit boardroom series · resetting for the future: a window into the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Resettingforthefuture:Awindowintotheglobal
June282017TheLambsClubNewYork
FT&KPMGINTERNATIONALBREXITBOARDROOMSERIES
In association withIn partnership with
SUMMARYREPORT
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AGENDA
15:45 Arrivalsandnetworking
16:00 Welcomingremarks
EmadL.Bibawi, Partner - New York Advisory Office Leader, KPMG in the USEdCrooks, US Industry and Energy Editor, Financial Times
16:10 Brexitobservations
DanielDombey, Brexit Editor and Deputy World News Editor, Financial TimesKarenBriggs, Head of Brexit, KPMG in the UK
16:40 Discussion
Politicalrisk• Whatarethebiggestpoliticalrisksforbusinessesinthecoming12months?• WhatisexpectedontaxreformintheUK/EUandhowcoulditaffectmulti-nationalbusinesses?• HowarebusinessesinvestingandplanningtomanagetheimpactofBrexit?
Tradeandoperatingmodels
• WhatwouldbethemainobjectivesofanewUK-EUtradedeal?• IsinvestmentandtradeintheUK/EUmoreorlessappealingasaresultofBrexit?• Howarebusinessestransformingoperatingmodelsintheshiftingglobaltradeenvironment?
People
• What could be the impact of immigration reform on multi-national businesses operating in the UK/EU?
• How can businesses plan for the impact of harder borders on talent acquisition?• Can relocation, digitization and automation soften the blow?
17:50 FTchairsummationandclosingremarks
EdCrooks, US Industry and Energy Editor, Financial Times
18:00 Drinksandnetworking
18:30 Dinner
20:30 Carserviceforguests
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Resettingforthefuture:AwindowintotheglobalBrexitconversation
TheFTANDKPMGINTERNATIONALBREXITBOARDROOMSERIESwasdesignedto
canvasstheviewsofC-suitebusinessleaderswhoaremappingtheirwaytotomorrow’s
opportunities.TheinauguralNewYorkmeetingkickedoffaglobalseriesthattheFTishosting
inassociationwithKPMGbringingseniorbusinessleaderstogetherinmajormarketsacross
theworld,includingFrankfurt,TokyoandLondontodiscussissuesaroundBrexitaswellas
othergeopoliticaldevelopments.
Brexitandothershiftsinthegeopoliticallandscapearebackonboardroomagendas.From
securingtalentandnavigatingregulatorychangetorethinkingsupplychains,reviewing
locationstrategiesandconsideringdataandintellectualpropertymanagement,businessesare
facingachallengingfewyears.Activelyplanningpotentialstrategiesnowisvitaltominimize
disruptiontobusinessasaresultofBrexit,andforthemostagileandinnovative,Brexitcould
becomeacatalystforchange.Aroadmapthatplotsthetasksandtimelineswillbecome
essentialinmakingdecisionsbeforethe2019deadlinefortheUK’sdeparturefromtheEU.
Byunderstandingtheiroptionsandbeingclearabouttheiropportunities,aswellastheir
exposure,Brexitcanhelpresetbusinesses’future.TheFTandKPMGhaveestablishedaseries
ofroundtablesinNewYork,Frankfurt,TokyoandLondontohelpbusinessesconsiderthe
opportunitiesandrisksglobally.
Thisreportprovidesacuratedsummaryofthepracticalinsightsandoriginalthinkingfromthe
eventinNewYork,whereweheardfromleadersoffinance,retail,technologyandprivateequity
firmswithoperationsandcustomerbasesthatspantheAtlantic.
HighlightsofwhatweheardinNewYork
• TheUKelectionhasonceagainblownopenthearrayofpossiblescenariosforapost-
Brexitworld,andUSbusinessesarelookingtorationalizethenoiseandprovidedirection
byansweringonekeyquestion:ispoliticsgoingtoovershadoweconomics?
• USbusinessesaresubjecttomanyofthesameconcernsasUKandEU-HQcompanies
–particularlythemovementofpeople,intellectualpropertyanddata.Leadersare
alsoconcernedabouttheeffectthatBrexitwillhaveontheUKeconomy,demandand
investment,aswellasthebroaderimpacts–upstreamontheirsuppliersanddownstream
ontheircustomers.
SUMMARY REPORT
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SUMMARY REPORT
• Rightlyorwrongly,businessleadersexpectthattalentwillstillbeabletomovefreely,but
anticipatelow-skilledlaborshortagesintheUK,andaregrapplingwithwhatthismeans
fortheirworkforcesandsupplychains.
• UScorporationsarealreadyinvestingtimeandenergyinscenarioplanning,andmany
areapplyinga‘Brexitlens’tolonger-termdecisions.Businessesbelievethatdecisions
criticaltogrowthorcostreductionmustcontinuetobemade,andthesearebeingmade
regardlessoftheuncertaintyaroundBrexit.
• Businessleadersareseekingatransitionaldealthatisputinplacewithsufficienttimefor
themtoplan.
• BrexithascausedalevelofuncertaintyovertheUK’spositionintheworldthathasmade
italessattractivedestinationforsomebusinesses.Leadersareconsideringalloptions–
includingmovinggloballytolocationssuchasNewYork.TheUKgovernmentmayneedto
considerincentivestoencouragecompaniesthatarethinkingofotheroptionstoremainin
theUKeventhoughtheUKmarkethasthebuildingblocksforsustainablebusiness.
• BusinessesleadersrecognizethepotentialupsidesofBrexit,andallparticipantsagree
thatthevoiceofbusinessisneededtorealizetheopportunitiesitoffers.
Brexit:TheNewYorkview
ThediscussionwithUSbusinessleadersinNewYorkcoveredfourkeythemes:
1. WhatbusinessesarethinkingaboutBrexitandtheirmainconcerns;
2. HowbusinessesarerespondingtoandpreparingforBrexit;
3. HowBrexithasimpactedonthecomparativeattractivenessoftheUK,EUandglobal
citiesasplacestodobusiness;and
4. HowBrexitmayalsopresentopportunitiesforbusinesses.
What are businesses thinking about Brexit?
ThreemonthsaftertheUKgovernmenttriggeredArticle50–thefirststeptowardsthecountry
leavingtheEuropeanUnion(EU)–thereisstillmuchuncertaintyaboutwhatBrexitmeansfor
businessesonbothsidesoftheAtlantic.ItmayrepresentabreakinalmosthalfacenturyofUK
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policy,butwhatislessclearisthetypeofdeparturedealthatwillbeachievedoverthecoming
months.TheUKelectionhasonceagainblownopenthearrayofpossiblescenariosfor
apost-Brexitworld,manyofwhichhavebeengivencolorfullabelsbyvariouspoliticians.So
whichwillitbe:ahardBrexit;asoftBrexit;ared,whiteandblueBrexit;aBrexitmeansBrexit;a
cleanBrexit;anopenBrexit;orajobsBrexit?
AstheUKembarksonseveralsetsofnegotiations(adivorcedealwiththeEU;anagreementon
citizens’rights;anunderstandingonitsfuturerelationshipwiththeEU;atransitionpact;plus
tradedealswithothercountries),somebusinessesarequestioningwhetheranyagreementwill
beachievedatall,debatinginparticulartheEU’sincentivetoparticipateinnegotiations.What
isclearisthatUSbusinessleadersarelookingtorationalizethedifferentvoicesandmedia
noiseintoacoherentposition,toprovideadegreeofdirectionintheseuncertaintimes.
Andthequestionmostimportanttobusiness:ispoliticsgoingtoovershadoweconomics?
The big concerns
USbusinessesaresubjecttomanyofthesameconcernsasUKandEU-HQcompanies.As
Brexitbecomesareality,businessesaretryingtodealwithuncertaintiesaroundfuture
movementofpeople,intellectualpropertyanddataacrossborders.Inparticular,
businessleadersexpressedconcernsaboutchangesinaccesstotheEUmarket,dataprivacy
regulations;complexityassociatedwithdatalicensingrights;andtheimpactofBrexiton
intellectualpropertylaw.
Withmorethan1millionUSnationalsemployedintheUK,USbusinessesarealsograppling
withwhatapost-Brexitworldmeansfortheirworkforce,andhowtheywillaccesstheright
technicalskillstoachievegrowth.WithBrexitwillcomeanewUKimmigrationsystemand
anassociatedimpactontheabilityofbusinesstorecruittherightstaff,relocatepeopleand
deploytalent.
Movementandavailabilityofskilledandlow-skilledlaborisseenascomingwithseparate
challengesanddifferentbusinessexpectations.Thereisageneralpresumption(rightly
orwrongly)bybusinessleadersthatskilledandtalentedworkerswillretaintherighttomove
around.Itiswherelow-skilledworkforcesareconcernedthatbusinessthinktheywillfeelthe
squeeze,withtheexpectationoflonger-termlaborshortagesduetoacombinationofthe
UKgovernment’snetmigrationtargets,itscurrentemploymentrates,CentralandEastern
Resettingforthefuture:AwindowintotheglobalBrexitconversation
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SUMMARY REPORT
Europeaneconomicgrowthandincreaseddomesticlabordemand,andananticipatedexodus
ofEUnationalstotheirhomecountries.
LeadersalsoexpressedconcernsaboutthefutureoftheUKeconomyandthepotentialfor
Brexittostiflenationaldemandandinvestment–particularlywhenthemarginsofUK
importershavealreadybeenhitbythedepreciationinsterling.Othershighlightedtheimpact
ofBrexitontheirsuppliersandcustomers,manyofwhomhavegonethroughatremendous
amountofcomplexregulatorychangesince2008.
Leadersagreethatatransitionalagreementisvital,butwhatismoreimportantistiming–the
detailsmustbeinplaceinsufficienttimeforbusinesstoplan.
Business preparedness
Sohowarebusinessescoping?Asonebusinessleaderstated,notknowingthefutureisinfact
alreadyknowingsomething,andmanyarealreadydealingwiththeuncertaintythatthenext
two-plusyearscouldbring.
Corporationsarealreadyinvestingtimeandenergytobetterunderstandthevariousways
inwhichtheUKcouldleavetheEUandminimizedisruptiontooperationsafter29March2019
–whethertheUKexitsoveraclifforunderatransitionalagreement.Inplanningforthese
scenarios,businessesareexaminingwhatwillhappentotariffsinthemediumtermaswellas
howdelaysatcustomsandnon-tariffbarriers,suchasstandardsandregulations,couldaffect
theiroperations.
So what are the various options? In brief, there is the no-deal scenario, where the UK crashes out
of the EU; the divorce-only deal, where it settles its citizens’ rights and agrees to pay an amount to
the EU but trades on WTO terms; the goods-only deal, whereby there is zero tariffs on goods but
services are not covered; the comprehensive free-trade agreement; or a deal to stay in the Customs
Union, which is something many businesses want, particularly as part of a transitional deal. The
remaining in the single market scenario does not currently seem likely, given the government’s
position on rules relating to free movement of people and the European Court of Justice.
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Businessesstillneedtomakeday-to-daydecisionsduringthisextendedperiodofuncertainty,
whetheritisrelatedtothefallinthevalueofthepound,increasedpricesandchangesin
supplychains.Butleadersagreethattheyareapplyinga‘Brexitlens’tobigger,longer-term
decisionsthatmaybedeferredorimpactedasaresultofBrexit.Althoughlessmobilefirms
(particularlyinregulatedindustries)areexecutingonplans,mosthavedelayedmakingany
decisionsaboutBrexitinthehopethatthatuncertaintywillreduceintime:“Everybodyis
actingasifyouhaveenoughtimetoplanandberesilientagainstdifferentscenarios,andyou
don’thavetochooseoneyet,becausetheexpectationisthatthelevelofuncertaintywillcome
downtoapointwhereyoucanmakeamorewell-informedchoice.”
Location, location, location
UncertaintyovertheUK’spositionintheworldpost-Brexitisaffectingperceptions
ofitsattractivenessasadestinationforbusiness.Atamacrolevel,USbusinessleaders
arenotconfidentthatBrexitwillresultintheUKbeingabletoactnimblyindealswithother
majormarketssuchastheUS,ChinaorIndia,orthatitreflectsaglobaloutlook,suggestingit
israthertheactionofaprotectionistnationshuttingitselfofffromthebiggestmarketinthe
world.SomeleaderssharedthatBrexitwillcausethemtorethinktheeconomicviabilityof
theiraccesstotheEUthroughtheUK,whileothersreportthatanumberofUScompanieshave
delayedplanstoenterorexpandintheUKmarket.
ItisclearthatLondonwillremainanattractivemarketforsomesectorsformanyreasons–
itslegalandregulatoryframework,scaleofitsfinancialservicesecosystem,taxrateandthe
possibilityofregulatoryreform,aswellassofterissuesofintegrationandculturalsensitivities
–butitisnot‘sellingitself’asmuchasotherEuropeancities.TheEUisconsideredamore
‘predictablemarket’,particularlyintheM&Aspace,andbusinessleadersare‘lookingtotheEU
first’,particularlyAmsterdam,ParisandBerlin.
Resettingforthefuture:AwindowintotheglobalBrexitconversation
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SUMMARY REPORT
Amsterdam,ParisorBerlin–orsomewhereelse?
Each European city comes with its own list of perceived pros and cons. A leader reports that a
recent business trip to Paris revealed that the environment for technology and start-ups in the
French capital has changed dramatically over the past two years and it has been transformed into a
technology hub. Locations in the UK that were previously promoted as tech hubs are being forced to
take a back seat while Paris and other European locations take advantage of the uncertainty in the
UK to build market share. However, one financial sector head says that when they looked at France,
although the country has great people and wonderful technology, they discovered its tax system
doesn’t lend itself to their business.
Frankfurt is often touted as an alternative to London for financial services. However, one head argues
that although it’s a very nice city, it would be very challenging for it to attract enough talent – such
as lawyers and accountants – to support the infrastructure needed to service an expanded financial
services sector.
Another leader reports that no other European city is really a match for London, so it remains
attractive by default.
As a result, several chiefs believe that if financial services firms leave London, they are more likely to
head to New York than anywhere else.
Andbusinessisalsolookingelsewhereglobally.OnebusinessleadersharedthatitsUK
clientlisthasincreasedby400%sincetheBrexitvoteaspeoplestarttolookatmarkets
beyondEurope(inthiscase,theUS).The‘Brexitlens’hasresultedinbusinesses–including
UK-headquarteredcompanies–acceleratingtheirmoveorexpansionintothecomparatively
morestableUSmarket,orconsideringit.
TheUKmay“needacarrottoovercometheuncertainty”.
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The carrot?
The UK currently has the lowest tax rate in the G7 and one of the lowest corporate tax rates in the
EU outside Ireland. However, although the UK government has made noises about becoming the
‘Singapore of Europe’, if it can’t strike a deal with the EU, one leader says tax only works as an initial
incentive and that a business must function for the long term: “A brief pay-off upfront, and even a
small one ongoing over time, isn’t enough to make one business work continuously over time, that
wishes to have access to the largest market in the world.”
Opportunities and optimism
SomebusinessleadersinNewYorkrecognizethatBrexitcouldofferbothUKandUSfirms
newopportunitiesiftheUKcanreviveitstradinghistory.LeadershighlightthattheUKhas
seensomebiginvestmentsrecently.Forexample,GoogleandFacebookhaveincreasedtheir
workforceinthecountry,andthepurchaseofARMbyJapanesefirmSoftBankhasalsobeen
abonus,althoughthisacquisitionmayhavebeeneasedinpartbythedepreciationinsterling
makingthedealcheaper.
Asitwillbedifficulttodispeluncertaintyinthenearfuture,thevoiceofbusinessis
neededtoconverttheopportunitiesofferedbyBrexit.TheUKgovernmentisencouraging
businesstospeakup–includingUScompanies–andleadersindicatethattheyplantoengage
withitinasimilarmannertoCapitolHill.
Resettingforthefuture:AwindowintotheglobalBrexitconversation
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ORGANIZERS
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Withaworldwidepresence,KPMGcontinuestobuildonourmemberfirms’successesthankstoourclearvision,maintainedvalues,andournearly190,000people,globally.
KPMGintheUSisaleadingproviderofaudit,taxandadvisoryservicestoabroadrangeofdomesticandinternationalentities–deliveringintegratedsolutionstoclients’issues.Operatingfrom90officesthroughouttheUnitedStates,ourmorethan34,000employeesandpartnerssupportbusinessleadersacrossvariousindustries.
BeingpartofastrongglobalnetworkofmemberfirmsgivesKPMGfirmsatrulyglobalmindset.Withpassionandpurpose,theyworkshoulder-to-shoulderwithclients,integratinginnovativeapproachesanddeepexpertisetodeliverrealresults.
Brexit:AcatalystforbusinessestoresettheirfuturesTheclockisticking,buthowcanyouprepareforBrexitwhilesomuchuncertaintyhangsintheair?Fromsecuringtalentandnavigatingregulatorychangetorethinkingsupplychainsandreviewinglocationstrategy,CorporateBritainfacesachallengingcoupleofyears.
ActivelyplanningyourresponsenowisvitalgiveneverythingthatmustbedonetohelpensureanorderlyBrexit.ABrexitNavigator–plottingouttasksandtimelines–willbecomeyouressentialguideinmakingdecisionsbeforethe2019deadline.Andforthemostagileandinnovative,Brexitcouldbecomeacatalystforchange.Byunderstandingyouroptionsandbeingclearaboutyouropportunitiesaswellasyourexposure,Brexitcanhelpresetyourfuture.
KPMGhascreatedasuiteofassetstohelpyounavigatethesetwofacetsofBrexit–theopportunityandtherisk.Drawonpracticalinsightsandoriginalthinkingfromourregional,andglobalBrexitchampions,ledbyourUKHeadofBrexitKarenBriggs.IntheUnitedStatespleasecontactEmadBibawi-Partner-NewYorkAdvisoryOfficeLeaderforquestionsregardingBrexit.
kpmg.com/brexit
Formoreinformationpleasecontact:• EmadL.Bibawi,Partner-NewYorkAdvisoryOfficeLeader,KPMG in the US
M:+1917.207.6994|E:[email protected]
• KarenBriggs,HeadofBrexit,KPMG in the UK M:+44771.219.0900|E:[email protected]
Resettingforthefuture:AwindowintotheglobalBrexitconversation
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Resettingforthefuture:AwindowintotheglobalBrexitconversation
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