frost and sullivan
TRANSCRIPT
Future of Mobility
Continued Growth & Investment potential of the Global Carsharing Market
Presented to Carsharing Association, Milan
Martyn Briggs, Frost & Sullivan
2
Integrated Ticketing & Payment
On-Demand Transportation
Vehicle Sharing
Door to Door Mobility Planning
Converging Mega Trends & Their Impact on Integrated MobilityMega trends are shaping demand for Integrated Mobility, but Technology & Big Data advancements are underpinning future services and business models
3
Definition & Potential of Integrated MobilityThe Future of Mobility consists of Technology enabled, door-to-door, multi-modal travel encompassing pre-trip, in-trip and post-trip services to improve journey experience to the Mobility User
Source: Urban Science
TAXI SERVICES
BIKE SHARING
PUBLIC TRANSPORT
CORPORATE CARSHARING
CAR RENTAL
CARSHARING
RIDESHARING
CASH / CAR ALLOWANCE
PARKING
INTEGRATED MOBILITY
E-MOBILITY
MICRO-MOBILITY SOLUTIONS
MOBILITY AUDIT / BUDGET
LOYALTY PROGRAMME / ECOSYSTEM
PARTNERSHIP
LCV
4
MobilityIntegrators
OEMs
Leasing Companies
Travel Management Companies
Software Platform Providers
Fleet Management
Providers
Public Transport Operators
Integrated Solution
Providers
Car Rental Companies
Mobility Landscape – Many Players, New Partnerships, New ModelsIn both B2C and B2B environments customers are demanding intuitive services; many actors investing significantly in order to deliver the ‘killer’ seamless proposition & user experience.
Corporate Car-Sharing
Bike Sharing
Parking
Car Rental
Ecosystem Partnership
Integrated Mobility
E-Mobility
Micro-mobility
Public Transport
Car Sharing
Ridesharing
Taxi Services
5
Traditional• Round-trip /station based
services – vehicles rented & returned to same location (e.g. Zipcar)
• One-way fixed point to point journeys (e.g. Autolib)
• One Way – Free Floating services; vehicles rented from or two anywhere in a specified zone (e.g. car2go, DriveNow)
Peer to Peer• Short rental/a few days• Insurance - key to the
operating model/platforms• Key Players incl.
Getaround, RelayRides, Wheelz, Buzzcar, Tamyca
Corporate• Dedicated fleet of vehicles at
company premises for the shared use amongst the company’s employees.
• Integrated keyless operations, vehicle telematics, and analytics technologies key
• Key Players incl. AlphaCity, Ubeeqo
Carsharing Business ModelsThere are already several well established vehicle sharing business models catering to several customer groups and use cases, by the minute, hour or longer term corporate carsharing/leasing
5,000,000Members
90,000Vehicles
1,500,000Members
147,500Vehicles
60,000Members
4,000 Vehicles
…already nearly 7m people use these shared services globally
6
Global Carsharing Membership and Fleet SizeBy 2014, membership is expected to grow to nearly 5 million, and the number of vehicles to 92,200, for a member-to-vehicle ratio of about 54:1.
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014*
Mem
bers
(Mill
ion)
YearNorth America Europe Asia
Australia Latin America
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2014*
Vehi
cles
(‘00
0)
Year
North America Europe Asia
Australia Latin America
11,501
19,403
31,967
55,390
69,107
92,200*
Carsharing Market: Membership and Fleet Size, Global, 2006–2014
*Forecasted figuresNote: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan
0.35
0.67
1.16
2.34
3.48
4.94*
7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Earlier Predicted Member (Million) 1.3 1.7 2.4 3.3 4.7 6.6 8.9 12.0 15.8 20.5 26.2
Earlier Predicted Vehicle ('000) 31.72 40.51 53.94 71.61 96.03 129.69 168.26 216.79 271.81 343.35 446.48
Vehi
cles
(‘00
0)
Mem
bers
(Mill
ion)
Year
Global Traditional Carsharing GrowthHaving outperformed our previous forecast for Carsharing members 3.5 vs. 3.3 in 2013, Frost & Sullivan is confident of 26.2 million members in 2020 based on continued new entrants and market penetration
Note: Above forecast does not include Latin America, expect for Brazil.
Carsharing Market: Carsharing Vehicles and Members Growth, Global, 2010–2020
Worldwide nearly 26.2 million
subscriptions expected by 2020
Actual Growth:3.48 million members (2013)
69,110 vehicles (2013)
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2013. Source: Frost & Sullivan
8
Carsharing Ecosystem – The Key Stakeholders While the customer is at the heart of the carsharing business model, an operator requires partners for a successful service, such as parking, in car technology, and customer service
Public Sector• Parking policy• License validation• Integrated mobility• Car registration and tax
In-car Technology• Keyless access hardware• On-board unit• Connectivity (e.g., embedded GPS)• Call function• Navigation and parking
Parking• Reserved space (two-way)• Any public space (one-way)• Host-based (e.g., driveway)
Member Services• RFID card/member pack• Member registration• Call center
Services• Road assistance• Car cleaning• Maintenance• Damage
management• Marketing/
wrapping
Customer
Insurance and Fuel Card• Per member or fleet insurance• Fuel provided by operator
Vehicle• OEM or Fleet
Car Independent Technology• Reservation system• Web site/mobile app• IT platform
Source: Frost & Sullivan
9
The more familiar customers are with Car Sharing, the higher their interest in becoming a member
N= 2,038 (Car Sharing Services non members, who provided 1 to 5 rate for both questions)Q20. How would you rate your familiarity with the concept of car sharing services? (1 to 5 Rating Answer) Q25. How would you rate your current interest in becoming a member of a car sharing service in your city? (1 to 5 Rating Answer)
n=2,038 n=632 n=703 n=703
(5) Very interested
(4) Somewhat interested
(3) Neither interestednor uninterested
(2) Not interested
(1) Not interestedat all
21% 26% 30% 21% 3% 30% 26% 31% 12% 1% 14% 23% 34% 26% 3% 20% 27% 25% 24% 4%
Level of Familiarity vs. Level of Interest in Car Sharing Services
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)
62%
Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)
94%
Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)
59%
Promotional Impact on Interest Rate (*)
55%
Note (*) : Interest rate increase (%) from very unfamiliar to very familiar
Germany has the highest awareness and interest in car sharing from Frost & Sullivan’s extensive Voice of Customer Survey of over 2,400 people
10
Carsharing Impact to Car OwnershipThe main attraction of carsharing is cost effectiveness over private car usage; 40% of 1 car households would consider selling the car
Cost effective alternative to privately owned car
No hassles of car ownership
More convenient then using public transport
Environmentally friendly way of transport
Transparency of costs
It would fit my way of living
I always have problems finding parking
I don’t use my private car very frequently
Others
• Cost effective alternative to privately owned car
• and the absence of hassles of car ownership are the top reasons for Car Sharing
Decrease in Car Ownership
• More than 40% of the Owners of 1 vehicle likely to become members of a Car Sharing Service, consider the possibility of selling/getting rid of the current car
• More than 60% of the Non-car Ownersinterested in becoming a Car Sharing member would NOT consider purchasing a new car in addition to the Membership
11
Substitution Effects of Shared Mobility Carsharing will not replace one specific transport mode, but will take share from all, with the largest replacement share from Ridesharing, car rental services, and driving your own car
Train
Light rapid train
Underground, tube, subway, or metro
Bus
Car, as a driver
Car, as a passenger
TaxiMotorbike
Rent-a-bicycle
Bicycle
Internet Ride sharingCar rental
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
REPLACEMENT SHARE (2)
USA
GE
SHAR
E (1
)Findings from Frost & Sullivan’s carsharing voice of customer survey (n=2,300) showed that of those interested in carsharing:• Highest replacement can be expected from internet ride sharing, car rental, car ownership and taxi use
OVERALL AVERAGE
REPLACEMENT SHARE37.2%
OVERALL AVERAGE USAGE
SHARE46.5 days
Members: 3.5mCars: 70,000
Fewer Cars in 2020Fewer Cars in 2013
1m 2013 6.75m 2020Members: 26mCars: 450,000
What is the Impact of Carsharing on Global Car
Sales?
12
Forecasting car-sharing membership in CitiesA comprehensive review of available demographic & car-sharing data was analysed to forecast London’s future potential for car-sharing membership as part of “Vision 2020” between F&S and Zipcar
ROUND-TRIP
ONE-WAY
Establishing baseline growth Incremental growth driven by policy
Historical data• TfL, DVLA and 2011 UK Census,
locations of Zipcar members andvehicles
Historical analysis• Multiple linear regression to establish
which factors affect membership most
Results• Good model fit: 6 statistically-significant
factors, ~70% of variance in membership explained
• Higher uptake linked to: education level, age group, public transport accessibility (PTAI)
Baseline forecasting• Round-trip: regression model• One-way: benchmarking vs. car2go in
US, Autolib in Paris
Action to accelerate adoption• Co-ordinated TfL and Council policies to
increase attractiveness of car sharing to a wider population
Policies considered• Increasing awareness• Ensuring proximity to cars• Graduated Parking Permit Charging• Scrappage Schemes• Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ)
Local variances in policy impacts
• Different characteristics of Central, Inner and Outer London affect adoption rates
13
Car Club impact analysis – significant benefits to the CityLondon could achieve up to a 10% reduction in CO2 emissions from cars, with ~120k cars taken off the road in 2020; Londoners would reduce their cost of living by £800m pa
Fewer Cars
Less Pollution
£800m pa 2020
120,000 cars off the road 2020
402,000 tonnes CO2 reduction pa2020
Benefits How/Why?
• £800m pa saving to members• Congestion reduction TBD
• £3k pa saving to members that sold/deferred car ownership
Benefits How/Why?
• 80,000 cars sold/deferred – round trip• 40,000 cars sold/deferred – one way• 821,000 miles reduced pa
• 1 car = 7 sold & 10 deferred (round-trip); 3 sold & 6 deferred (one-way)
Benefits How/Why?
• 177k tonnes less CO2 through mileage reduction; 225k cleaner cars
• 22 tonnes PM10 & 539 tonnes NOX
• Car Club members drive less (57% round-trip, 11% one-way), and in cleaner cars (33% round-trip, 66% one-way – partial EV)
London’s cars reduce by 4.2% in 2020
Increased disposable income to London’s Population (and SMEs)
London’s CO2 Emissions from cars reduce by up to 10% in 2020
Reduce Cost of Living
14
Summary from Today’s Presentation
Opportunity: Mobility is becoming far more connected, digital, and integrated –Customer expectations are changing
Several New Mobility business models are emerging – Opportunity for private sector led innovation
Cities need to consider how to adapt – each city is different and should evaluate the benefits & risks
Growth of most mobility business models are linked to public transport accessibility– Several well established companies & business models
Most instances of best practice have included public sector involvement –Consider how mobility can become an integral service
15
• Industry leading workshop with all Mobility stakeholders
• Participation from OEMs, rental, leasing, transport operators, policy makers and technology firms
• Outputs filmed live and pre-recorded on site
• Several trade & journalist involvement
• Opportunities to sponsor, present, and demonstrate mobility products & services
Intelligent Mobility Workshop – 1st & 2nd July 2015 Frost & Sullivan host the industry leading mobility workshop each year; 2015 will be the 7th successive mobility workshop to be held in London with a focus on Automated & Intelligent Mobility business models
Website: http://ww2.frost.com/event/calendar/intelligent-mobility-2015/?eID=477
16
Thank You & Keep in Touch!
Martyn BriggsIndustry Principal, Mobility,
Direct: (+44) 2079157830Mobile: +44 (0) 753 428 2371 [email protected]
Future of Mobility Video
Join our discussions on LinkedIn and connect with us on @FS_automotive @BriggsMartyn
Watch our latest Video on the Future of Mobility, filmed live at Frost & Sullivan’s Annual Mobility Workshop