frontline ltd.reports.huginonline.com/813922/88119.pdf · presentation to ing barings investment...
TRANSCRIPT
FRONTLINE LTD.An industry leader in the energy market
selling at P/E 3 for 2001 estimates.
Presentation to ING Barings Investment Conference March 21st - 2001
The Company
The Stock
ING Barings Conference � 2000
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The Fleet
� Oldest ship from 1990� Average age � 6 years �
Industry Average 12,5years.
� Percentage double hulltonnage : 70 % - IndustryAverage 40 %
� Market share of modernspot market incl. Poolparticipators :Approximately 40 %
29 + 3 N/B VLCCs
20 + 2 N/B Suezmaxes
8 Suezmax OBOs
= 14 million dwt. or approximately 100 million barrels transport capacity.
The Profit & Loss - EBITDA
Q4 99 Q4 00 2000 199953,6 249,5 Net operating revenues 599,9 253,2
0,0 0,7 Gain / loss on sale of vessels
1,2 -37,8
32,1 37,4 Total expenses 132,1 136,2
21,5 212,8 Operating profit 469 79,2
before depreciation (EBITDA)
20,0 29,8 Depreciation 92,6 91,4
1,5 183,0 Operating profit (EBIT) 376,1 -12,2
-20,0 -1,8 Financial items -62,2 -78,9
-18,6 181,3 Net profit (loss) before min. & taxes
313,9 -91,2
0,0 0,0 Minority 0 4,2
-18,6 181,2 Net profit 313,9 -86,9
-0,31 2,29 EPS 4,28 -1,79 -50,0
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Q1 99 Q2 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00US
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All numbers in USD million
The Balance Sheet
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1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Assets Liab & Equity
USD
mill
ion
Cash Frontline Vessels Golden Ocean VesselsOther assets Trading Liabilities Frontline MortgageGolden Ocean Mortgage Equity
What makes us different ?
� The leading industry consolidator.� A pure crude oil transportation play.� The world�s largest independent tanker fleet.� All ships built after 1990.� Big operating leverage.� Low ship operating and G&A costs.� Insider ownership 46%.
Five excuses for not buying shipping shares� and why they don�t work out..
Ecconomic Recession�I am afraid of the reduced demand for
oil as a function of the current recession.�
MBD
50
60
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80
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000
World Oil Consumption 1985-2000
OPEC Cut�Tanker rates will tumble as a functionof the decision to cut OPEC production.�
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0,90
0,92
0,94
0,96
0,98
1,00
1,02
1,04
1,06
1,08
1,10
BARSCOMPARED WITH ANNUAL AVERAGE OPEC
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
LINESCOMPARED WITH ANNUAL AVERAGE VLCC
1986-92 OPEC OUTPUT1993-98 OPEC OUTPUT
1986-92 VLCC RATES1993-98 VLCC RATES
SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN OPEC OUTPUTQUARTERLY PRODUCTION VS ANNUAL AVERAGE
INDEX
Production Forecast 2001
24,0
25,0
26,0
27,0
28,0
29,0
30,0
1Q99 2Q99 3Q99 4Q99 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01
Yard Capacity
� No significant additional capacity can beadded to the market before the latter part of2003 or first part of 2004.
� Japanese yards are reducing capacity.� LNG Newbuilding projects absorb VLCC
building berths.
�The Yards capacity will always limit the upside in the market.�
Over supply�The old ladies will never leave�
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20090
10
20
30
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MILL DWTIMO DRAFT OCTOBER 2000:PHASE-OUT OF SINGLE HULL TANKERSCATEGORY 1: PRE-MARPOL TANKERS ( NO SBT/PL)
Building year Year to be phased out1973 or earlier 20021974-75 20031976-77 20041978-80 20051981 or later 2006CATEGORY 2: MARPOL TANKERS (SBT/PL)
The draft under this category will most likely be revised inorder to comply with Category 1. If so:
Building year Year to be phased out1980 or earlier As for Category 11981 20061982 20071983 20081984 2009
3 %
9 %
12 %
7 %
4 %
1 % 1 % 1 %
Percent of existing fleet
Bars indicate volumesto be phased outwithin the end of theyear
NEW PHASE-OUT SCHEMETANKERS 10,000 DWT+
Bad liquidity
01
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Frontline TK OSG OMI
�I can not move my equity position inshipping shares due to limited liquidity.�
$ mill
Daily trading value in USD million
The reasons to invest
The macro trend
� Growth in world wide oil consumption approximately 1,7 %.� Strong demand increases in areas without additional production
capacity.( China � India.)� Build up of refinery capacity in developing countries creates need for
crude feed.� Middle East oil production is gaining market share.� North Sea and US production are expecting to level off.� An ageing fleet, new rules � combined with stricter practise from oil
companies create need for modernisation.
The renewal case
8687
8889
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9293
9495
9697
9899
00 0102
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MILL. DWT
DELIVERIES OF TANKERS
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.DELIVERIES OF NEW TANKERS
TO COMPENSATE FOR LOWER DELIVERIES IN 2001 APPR 28 MILL DWTPER YEAR ARE NEEDED IN 2002 - 2005.
NEED FOR REPLACEMENT OF OLD TANKERS
ACCORDING TO THE RECENT IMO /MEPC 45 DRAFT88 MILL DWT MUST BE REMOVED FROM THE FLEET BETWEEN JAN 2001 AND JAN 2006 IE AN ANNUAL AVERAGE OF 18 MILL DWT PER YEAR OR 15 MILL DWT PER YEAR OF NEWBUILDINGS.
TO COVER OIL TRADE GROWTH
BASED ON 3.7% ANNUAL GROWTH IN TONNAGE DEMAND SOME 10 MILL DWT PER YEAR ARE REQUIRED. (2.7% PA IN 1990s)
IN THE 2001-2005 PERIOD 25 MILL DWT PER YEAR ARE NEEDED
The relative pricing
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P/E 2000 P/E 2001 P/E 2002 EV/Ebitda2001
EV/Ebitda2002
Tanker Average Contract drilling Offshore Supply Vessel
P/E - EV/EBITDA INDUSTRY COMPARISON
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P/E 4 Q P/E 2000 P/E 2001 P/E 2002 EV/Ebitda 2000
Frontline OSG OMI TK
P/E -EV/EBITDA Shipping Companies
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
$ PER DAY FOR OLD VLCC
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$ PER DAY FOR MODERN VLCC
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CORRELATION BETWEEN RATES FOR MODERN AND RATES FOR OLD VLCCsWEEKLY 2000
The downside protection
R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s
Modern VLCC rate = USD 30.000 p/d
Suezmax rate = USD 23.000 p/dNet Income Frontline = USD 130 million
CORRESPONDINGFLOOR FORMODERN UNITS
ASSUMED MINIMUM LEVEL FOR OLD VLCCs("SURVIVAL RATES")
Break Even Cash RatesAverage Frontline ship
0
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VLCC Suezmax
US
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er
day
Operating Costs Interest Installment Lease payments
Rates vs. OutputCORRELATION BETWEEN OPEC OUTPUT AND VLCC RATES
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
OPEC CRUDE PRODUCTION
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VLCC SPOT RATES
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MONTHLY 1998-2001
NOV 00
OCT 00
SEP 00AUG 00
JUL 00
NOV 99
FEB 98
ACTIVE VLCC FLEET IS 6% LARGERIN 2000Q4 THAN IN 1998Q1
R2=0.82
JUN 00MAY 00
APR 00
MAR 00
FEB 00JAN 00
DEC 99 OCT 99
JUL 98
AUG 98
DEC 00
JAN 01
FEB 01
R.S. PlatouEconomic Research a.s
Frontline � Currently a cash maschine
Development in Cash Position
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
USD
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Low 30 / 23 Med 45 / 35 1 st. Quarter 2001 - 60 / 40 4 rd. Quarter - 2000 - 68 / 50
Current Market Cap.
Final Comments
Frontline Strategy 2001
� Integrate Golden Ocean into Frontline. Includes fullintegration of 5 off balance sheet VLCCs.
� Minor fleet adjustments.� Consider major merger alternatives.� Keep a high payout ratio.� Implement NYSE listing of ordinary shares.� Develop more contract business to show long term
earnings stability.
Our Market Scenario � One year ago
�We are in the beginning of a two to three year strong cyclical upswing inthe crude tanker market. The world-wide economic growth, and thecurrent oil storage situation will force increased OPEC - AGproduction. Together with a fixed order book, an over aged fleet, andnew rules and market practice as a function of �Erica� incidents, thiswill tighten the utilisation. The increased utilisation will push freightrates significantly and put upwards pressure on second - hand prices.
The positive development has been delayed by the Asian Crisis andartificial low OPEC production. However it will be kick started whenOPEC in the next weeks is expected to open for more production.
The consolidation in the industry has just started. The development inthe chartering markets as well as in the capital market will force M&Aactivities. Frontline will as it has since 1996 seek to lead this trend.�
Tor Olav Trøim - Frontline ManagementNew York - March 2000
Our market view - Today
� Contiued strong market for the next 3 � 5 year periode with potentialfor new rate peaks this autumn when OPEC increase production.
� Current fleet composition creates USD 30,000 p/d VLCC �floor� forthe next five year period.
� Growth in crude oil import in Asia and increased production fromMEG will be important tonnage demand forces.
� The continued strong spot market will increase S&P activity as well asgive more opportunities for long term charter and strategic deals withmajor oil companies.
� The new IMO rules will be adopted.� Major players will seek further consolidation.� OPECs new production philosophy will increase seasonal volatility.
Frontline Ltd. - New York 21st March �2001.
The research confirms potential
EPS 2001 Target$ per share $ per share
� Enskilda 5.51 28� ING Barings 5.85 38� Jefferies 6.00 36� Lehman 4.69 25� Morgan Stanley 4.30 25� ABM/AMBRO 4.60 25