Frontiers Of Urban Research & Applied

Practice: A Think Tank PerspectiveLessons from the Intersection of the Public and Private Sector

October 30, 2014

Peter Angelides, PhD, AICPPrincipal

Econsult Solutions, Inc.

Philadelphia, PA

OVERVIEW

• Intersection of private interests

and public policy

• Questions situated within local

political context

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

• TREND (Chicago)

• East River Ferries (New York)

• SEPTA (Philadelphia)

‒ Understanding the Economic Value

‒ Real Estate Impacts of Transit

• Brent Spence Bridge (Cincinnati)

• Philadelphia Water Department

TRANSFORMNG RETAIL

ECONOMICS OF NEIGHBORHOOD

DEVELOPMENT (TREND)

• How does retail development impact overall

neighborhood development?

• Can selective retail investments steer or

influence neighborhood development?

• Requires extensive data gathering:

- Surveys (online and in-person)

- NETS, Census, etc.

TREND

Online Survey – Interactive Mapping

TREND

Online Survey – Interactive Mapping

TREND

Online Survey – Personal History

TREND

Tablet-Based In-Person Surveying

TREND

Online and

Field

Collection

TREND

Neighborhood

Boundaries

and Retail

TREND

Residents

Moving to the

Neighborhood

TREND

Resident

Shopping

Destinations

TREND

Origin of Non-

Resident

Shoppers

TREND

Retail

Composition

of Corridors

(NETS)

EAST RIVER FERRIES - NYCEDC

EAST RIVER FERRIES

Public Data

EAST RIVER FERRIES

Property Records

EAST RIVER FERRIES

Blocks Used in Analysis

EAST RIVER FERRIES

Impact on Property Values

SEPTA:

Economic Value to the Region

300.7

305.2

295.3 298.3

301.0 298.7

296.6

307.2

325.1

329.6

321.0

334.0

339.3

270.0

280.0

290.0

300.0

310.0

320.0

330.0

340.0

350.0

UN

LIN

KE

D P

AS

SE

NG

ER

TR

IPS

(M

ILL

ION

S)

SEPTA:

Economic Value to the Region

SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

IMPACTS ($ MILLIONS)

CAPITAL

INVESTMENTOPERATIONS TOTAL

DIRECT OUTPUT $265 $920 $1,185

INDIRECT & INDUCED OUTPUT $305 $1,586 $1,892

TOTAL OUTPUT $570 $2,506 $3,077

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 4,079 19,971 24,050

TOTAL EARNINGS $170 $1,201 $1,371

STATE IMPACTS ($ MILLIONS)CAPITAL

INVESTMENTOPERATIONS TOTAL

DIRECT OUTPUT $289 $920 $1,209

INDIRECT & INDUCED OUTPUT $384 $1,613 $1,997

TOTAL OUTPUT $673 $2,533 $3,206

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 5,065 20,667 25,732

TOTAL EARNINGS $214 $1,237 $1,451

TOTAL TAX REVENUES $12 $51 $62

SEPTA:

Economic Value to the Region

IMPACT OF 40 PERCENT

SERVICE ELIMINATION

CITY OF PHILADELPHIA JOB LOSS (60,000)

EARNINGS LOSS $(2.4B)

PROPERTY VALUE LOSS $(14.3B)

REGIONAL /

COMMONWEALTH

JOB LOSS (25,000)

EARNINGS LOSS $(1.6B)

PROPERTY VALUE LOSS $(8.4B)

SEPTA:

Impact on Property Values

BRENT SPENCE BRIDGE CORRIDOR

Context Map

BRENT SPENCE BRIDGE CORRIDOR

Population Forecast

BRENT SPENCE BRIDGE CORRIDOR

Population Forecast

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

To

tal P

op

ula

tio

n

Hamilton Clermont Warren Butler Montgomery Greene

Miami Boone Kenton Campbell Dearborn

PHILADELPHIA WATER

DEPARTMENT

PWD

Forecast Development

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Low Baseline High

TAX FORECASTS

Earned Income Tax