front range ozone early action compact presentation to westar regional ozone conference steven...
TRANSCRIPT
Front Range OzoneEarly Action Compact
Presentation to WESTAR Regional Ozone Conference
Steven ArnoldAir Pollution Control Division
March 9th, 2004
Overview Denver’s Ozone Problem Sources The Early Action Compact Non-Attainment Boundary Control Actions
2000 2001 2002 2003 2000-2002 2001-20038-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 8-hr. O3 3-yr. Avg. 3-yr. Avg.4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max. 4th Max.
Value Value Value Value Value ValueSite Name (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm) (ppm)
Welby 0.062 0.064 0.068 0.066 0.065 0.066Highland 0.076 0.077 0.076 0.091 0.076 0.081S. Boulder Creek 0.072 0.071 0.078 0.082 0.074 0.077Carriage 0.071 0.072 0.073 0.085 0.072 0.077Chatfield Res. 0.080 0.077 0.083 0.095 0.080 0.085USAF Academy 0.072 0.07 0.072 0.077 0.071 0.073Arvada 0.076 0.074 0.073 0.083 0.074 0.077Welch 0.068 0.064 0.069 0.077 0.067 0.070Rocky Flats North 0.081 0.082 0.088 0.091 0.084 0.087NREL 0.083 0.081 0.081 0.095 0.082 0.085Fort Collins 0.070 0.067 0.072 0.075 0.070 0.071Greeley 0.069 0.074 (Shut dow n) (Shut dow n) --- ---Rocky Mtn. N.P. 0.078 0.070 0.087 0.087 0.078 0.081Weld County Tower --- --- (0.080) (0.083) (0.080) (0.082)
Ozone Summary
Ozone Status
20043-yr. Avg. Highest4th Max. Allowable
Value 4th Max.(ppm) (ppm)
0.066 0.1200.081 0.0870.077 0.0940.076 0.0960.085 0.0760.073 0.1050.076 0.0980.070 0.1080.087 0.0750.085 0.0780.071 0.107
--- ---(0.080) (0.094)
0.081 0.080
Site Name
WelbyHighlandS. Boulder CreekCarriageChatfield Res.USAF AcademyArvadaWelchRocky Flats NorthNRELFort CollinsGreeleyWeld County Tower
Rocky Mtn. NP
Upslope Meteorology
Ozone averaging morethan 80 ppb between10,000 and 18,000feet represents carry-over from the previousday and/or transport.
This ozone would havebeen available formixing throughout themixed layer during thelate afternoon, contributing to the ozone burden at thesurface.
Back Trajectory Analysis- AQI 177- NOAA Air Resources Laboratory
Back Trajectory Analysis-AQI 129- NOAA Air Resources Laboratory
Back Trajectory Analysis-AQI 101- NOAA Air Resources Laboratory
Topography (Denver Boulder Greeley CMSA Highlighted)
Denver Metro + Weld County VOC Emission Inventory
Poin t Sources12 %
Poin t Sources-F lash26 %
Area Sources19 %
N on-R oad (exhaust)12 %
N on-R oad (evaporative)2 %
M obile Sources (exhaust)15 %
M obile Sources (evaporative)14 %
D e n ve r EAC -2 0 0 2 H yd ro ca rb o n Em ission s fo r th e D e n ve r A re a + W e ld C o u n ty (To ta l H C =5 1 1 tp d )
Point Sources12 %
Point Sources-F lash31 %
Area Sources22 %
N on-Road (exhaust)10 %
N on-Road (evaporative)1 %
M obile Sources (exhaust)10 %
M obile Sources (evaporative)14 %
D e n ve r EAC -2 0 0 7 H yd ro ca rb o n Em issio n s fo r th e D e n ve r A re a + W e ld C o u n ty (To ta l H C = 4 7 5 tp d )
Denver Metro + Weld County NOx Emission Inventory
Point Sources29 %
Area Sources7 %
N on-R oad (exhaust)24 %
M obile Sources (exhaust)40 %
D e n ve r EAC -2 0 0 2 N itro g e n Oxid e s (N Ox) Em issio n s fo r th e D e n ve r A re a + W e ld C o u n ty (To ta l N Ox= 3 6 3 tp d )
Point Sources33 %
Area Sources9 %
N on-R oad (exhaust)25 %
M obile Sources (exhaust)33 %
D e n ve r EAC -2 0 0 7 N itro g e n Oxid e s (N Ox) Em issio n s fo r th e D e n ve r A re a + W e ld C o u n ty (To ta l N Ox= 32 4 tp d )
To avoid nonattainment, the Denver area entered into the Early Action Compact A multi-agency agreement
RAQC, CDOT, AQCC, EPA, DRCOG, CDPHE, and Elbert, Larimer, Morgan and Weld Counties
Controls implemented faster than traditional process
Requires complex modeling Requires implementing controls by 12/31/05 Success must be shown by 12/31/07 – attainment
Early Action Compact
Joining the EAC ensures a nonattainment designation will be deferred for all counties Control over control measures No transportation or general conformity No nonattainment NSR permitting requirements No RACT for all stationary sources No “nonattainment” stigma Basically, an “insurance policy” from nonattainment
Failure to meet any of the EAC deadlines triggers automatic activation of nonattainment
Early Action Compact
3/11 - AQCC public hearing
3-5/04 - Legislative review of AQCC adopted SIP
4/15/04 - EPA finalizes designation (deferred) and boundaries
12/31/04 - Plan due to EPA
Overview of the EAC Schedule
If an area violates the standard, then EPA designates “nonattainment”
A State Implementation Plan (SIP) is required SIP = control strategy plan with technical
information Emission controls must be enforceable Conformity and more stringent source
controls
The Concept of Nonattainment
EPA guidance recommends a minimum nonattainment boundary as the Denver/Boulder/Greeley CMSA
Also, the CAA requires the area to include “…the area that can be shown to cause or contribute to nonattainment…”
Review of sources, modeling, topography, and meteorology are considered in determining the boundaries
Potential Ozone Nonattainment Boundary
New Boundary May Include
North Front Range Counties
Sources in many counties may “cause or contribute” to violations
Weld County and RMNP monitors are perilously close to recording violations
EPA recommends 11 counties as the 8-hour ozone nonattainment area Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver,
Douglas, Elbert, Jefferson, Larimer, Morgan and Weld
CDPHE responded to EPA proposal Shave off northern Larimer and Weld Counties, all
of Elbert County, and eastern Morgan, Weld, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties from boundary
Proposed 8-hour Ozone Nonattainment
Area
Eastern Colorado VOC Sources (Denver Boulder Greeley CMSA Highlighted)
Eastern Colorado NOx Sources (Denver Boulder Greeley CMSA Highlighted)
Oil/Gas Activities(from Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation
Commission)
Purple: Permits
Green/Red: All Oil/Gas
Wells
Eastern Colorado Oil and Gas (Denver Boulder Greeley CMSA Highlighted)
1.3 -km Grid
4-km Grid
12-km Grid
200 0 200 Miles
N
EW
S
Modeling Domain for the Denver Ozone EAC
Ozone Modeling Area for EAC
Development of theOzone Plan
A plan has been drafted and proposed to the Air Quality Control Commission Description of the problem Accounting of all emission sources
(“inventories”) Photochemical modeling to predict success
by 2008
Controls on certain sources proposed Flash emissions from oil/gas sources 8.1 psi RVP gasoline
EPA may set RVP at 7.8 psi Uncontrolled industrial engines Natural gas processing plants Dehydrators at oil/gas operations Current controls remain in place
Enhanced I/M, federal measures, existing stationary sources rules
Development of theOzone Plan
Modeling these reductions shows improvement, but not enough All monitoring sites below 85 ppb in 2007 except the
Rocky Flats site – 85.6 ppb “Weight of the evidence” used to show attainment
Used if modeled concentrations less than 90 ppb Corroborative analysis of modeling results/uncertainties,
emissions trends, anomalous meteorology, levels of control
Attainment presumed based on the proposed plan AQCC hearing March 11th; Legislature then reviews
Development of theOzone Plan
What Next? Monitoring this summer will provide
new perspectives Modeling will continue to be refined Legislative session and AQCC Actions
are only Round 1 EPA actions and actions of 22 parties
and other interests are all unknowns