From Yugoslavia to the European Union: 20 Years after 1991 - The Tale of Two Generations

SOCIO-POLITICAL PERCEPTIONS OF TWO GENERATIONS (1971/1991) IN THE WESTERN BALKANS

(conducted in October 2011)

The Balkans in the Globalized WorldFostering the Region’s European Agenda

8 – 9 June 2012 Sofia (Bulgaria)

The year 2011 marked the twentieth anniversary of the dissolution of the Yugoslav federation – two decades of wars and conflicts that left a deep scar on the Balkans and its people. The many analyses of events, leadership, or transformation processes have often overlooked the human dimension of regional disintegration. The last Yugoslav generation of 1971 was in its formative years when the conflicts started, the first twenty years of its

adult life cut short by wars. Those born in 1991 are too young to remember conflicts, war and the fall of the old system. Isolated from each other, they are now coming of age to shape the future of their countries

A survey with the title “From Yugoslavia to the European Union: 20 Years after 1991 – The Tale of Two Generations” commissioned by the European Fund for the Balkans within its Supporting Policy Development

Programme examined the perceptions of these two generations.

The results of the survey are provided at the Fund’s interactive web based platform (http://balkanfund.org/spd/?page_id=148) where you can look at the results and examine them using charts,

maps and greed. Also, there is a possibility of comparing the results from different countries and from different generations within the same or different countries.

Supporting Policy Development is a programme by the European Fund for the Balkans which seeks to serve policy researchers, think tanks, NGO’s, and governments, who are interested to be engaged in the policy

developments and the EU integration process in the Western Balkans. The programme aims to facilitate the transfer of knowledge and expertise based on evidence based approach for addressing complex societal

challenges the countries of the region are facing on their way to EU membership.

2

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

Realisation: Field research conducted in the period from 25 September to 17 October, 2011

Countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia

Sample frame: The countries' citizens born in 1971 and in 1991

Type of sample:

Quota sampling; Dispersed quotas Geographic and by type of settlement (urban / rural) with defined starting points (varying between countries depending on the sample size, from minimum of 32 to 42 starting points); app. 7 to 8 respondents per starting point

Type of survey: Face to face in respondents' households

3

METHODOLOGY – SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE SIZE ALB B&H CRO KOS MAC MNE SRB Total

Planed sample size 240 720 320 240 240 240 320 2320

Realised sample size 251 770 320 260 263 262 342 2468

SAMPLE SIZE per generation ALB B&H

BosniakB&H

CroatsB&HSerbs CRO KOS MAC MNE SRB

Generation 71 91 71 91 71 91 71 91 71 91 71 91 71 91 71 91 71 91

Realised sample size128

123

127

129

131

130

125

128

160

160

129

131

131

132

127

135

178

164

NOTE: Due to noticeable differences in the attitudes between the three ethnic groups in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the results for this country are presented separately for each of the ethnic groups generation-wise, and separately for Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation and Bosnia and Herzegovina Republic of Srpska, on the level of the total for the country.

4

CROATIAZAGREB

MONTENEGROPODGORICA

ALBANIATIRANA

SERBIABELGRADE

B&HSARAJEVO

WESTERN BALKANS: DIFFERENCES & COMPLEXITY OF THE WB REGION

KOSOVOPRISTINE

MACEDONIASKOPJE

7-8 countries23 M inhabitants (& with a lot of common history & 700 000 kids

from mixed marriages)

7 nationalities (major)

1:5 ppp GDP per capita

1: 11 # of inhabitants

7 official languages (4 do not need mutual translations)

6 currencies

3 religions

2 alphabets

8 pairs of nations were in a wars during nineties

SLOVENIALJUBLJANA

5

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E

SerbiaMontenegroCroatiaB&HMacedoniaKosovoAlbania

6

WESTERN BALKANS: PPP GDP PER CAPITA: INTERRUPTED GROWTH – 2009/2008 (LAGGING IN & LAGGING OUT OF THE CRISIS)

Source: Ipsos SM estimates

GDP is not the only parameter which dropped:

____________________ Real salaries also plunged in the

entire region

Inflation rose in some countries

In 2009 & 2012 the exchange rate weakened (in some countries with national currency …)

Exchange rate was of special importance - particularly in Serbia (which still remembers the 1993/94 hyper inflation of 4% per hour)

BELIEVE IT OR NOT: THAT LIFE WOULD BE BETTER IF THE SFRY HAD SURVIVED

With the exception of Kosovo and to some extend Croatia, the majority of (20 and 40 year old) people in the former SFRY countries believe that life would be better if the SFRY had survived with the same political system as in Tito’s time !!!

Differences are by country and not by generation (i.e. opinion is driven by the country of residence …and this is a general trend!!!)

7

With the exception of Kosovo and to some extend Croatia, the majority of (20 and 40 year old) people in the former SFRY countries believe that life would be better if the SFRY had survived with the same political system as in Tito’s time

Q: In your opinion, what would life in our country be like if Yugoslavia (SFRY) had survived with the same political system and the same relationships between republics (current independent countries) as existed in the period of Tito's reign

5633

16 13 10 5 5

17

24

19 2521

199

25 30

62 58 65 69 81

Kosovo Croatia Macedonia BiHFederation

Montenegro Serbia BiH RS

Worse The same Better

8

With the exception of Kosovo and to some extend Croatia, the majority of (20 and 40 year old) people in the former SFRY countries believe that life would be better if the SFRY had survived with the same political system as in Tito’s time

Q:In your opinion, what would life in our country be like if Yugoslavia (SFRY) had survived with the same political system and the same relationships between republics (current independent countries) as existed in the period of Tito's reign

8 517 21

6 5 9 10

29 3654 57

18 143 7

15 19

36 29

6 1218

24

2325

1716

2217

1523

76 64

44 50

86 7770 59

33 27 29 22

58 6675

62

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

Worse The same Better

BiH Bosniaks BiH Croats BiH Serbs Montenegro Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Serbia

9

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KOSOVO AND CROATIA, MAJORITY OF THE (20 and 40 year old) CITIZENS FROM EX SFRY COUNTRIES BELIEVE THAT THEIR PARENTS

LIVED BETTER THAN THEY LIVE TODAY

In comparison with how you live today, how do you think that your parents lived?

45 3820 23 26

15 17

15 21

1823 13

15 18

40 3962 53 60 69 64

Kosovo Croatia Macedonia BiHFederation

Montenegro Serbia BiH RS

Worse Same Better

10

NEVERTHELESS, A GOOD PORTION OF (20 and 40 year old) POPULATION, PARTICULARLY IN CROATIA, BELIEVE THAT DISINTEGRATION OF FORMER STATE WAS INEVITABLE, AND THAT IT

WOULDN’T HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE TO PREVENT IT AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, THE CONVICTION REMAINS THAT WAR COULD HAVE BEEN PREVENTED

Some people think that warfare in the 90-ties could have been prevented, while other sthink that it was impossible. Which of these two attitudes is closer to your own?

22 18 24 27 2739 44

3150 36 33 34

33 28

4627 36 36 32

19 22

Kosovo Croatia Macedonia BiH Federation Montenegro Serbia BiH RS

Neither the warfare nor disintegration of the EX YU could have been preventedWar could have been prevented, but not the disintegrationBoth warfare and disintegration of former SFRY could have been prevented

11

WHOM TO BLAME FOR THE WARFARE

Huge difference by countries: Responses are divided about whom to blame for the warfare – in Croatia, the majority blame the political leaders; in Kosovo, they predominantly blame the people; while in Albania, B&H, Macedonia, and Serbia, most lay the blame on the international community (no difference by generations)

Milošević is by far the most blamed among politicians – and in Kosovo, territory of FBH and Albania he is practically the only one politician whom they blame. In Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro and territory of RS – responsibility is spited, and only in the territory of RS Milošević is not the most responsible.

12

Respondents are divided in their opinions as to where the blame lies for the warfare – in Croatia, the majority blame the political leaders; in Kosovo, they predominantly blame the people; while in Albania, B&H, Macedonia, and Serbia, most lay the blame on the international community

Q: In your opinion, who is the most responsible for the outbreak of conflicts and warfare on the territory of the ex-SFRY in the 1990s?

30 30 30 29 27 22 15

24

1019 14 15

1611

13

37 36

20

38

1223

820

616

24 26

51

4542

48

43

Croatia Albania Macedonia Serbia Kosovo Montenegro BiH Federation BiH RS

Political leader Nation - people International community DK-Ref

13

Most of those who think that political leaders were the responsible ones lay the blame on Slobodan Milosevic, with the exception of respondents from Republic of Srpska, who more often place the blame on Tudjman (and Izetbegović)

Political leader

9269 65 64 54

3919

1 92 10

424611

28

172 32

1

Kosovo BiHFederation

Macedonia Croatia Albania Serbia Montenegro BiH RS

Slobodan Milosevic Franjo Tudjman Alija Izetbegovic

Multiple answers; Base: those who think that a political leader is the most responsible for the outbreak of conflicts and warfare on the territory of the ex-SFRY in the 1990s % of the most frequent answers

51 3030 30 2729 1522

% of people who think that political leaders were the responsible

14

MISTRUST AND COMON CULTURE AMONG (20 and 40 year old) PEOPLE OF DIFFERENT ETHNICITIES

In general, there is a lot of mistrust among people of different ethnicities that lived together in the former SFRY. „Volume“ of TRUST is the highest in territory of FBH and Macedonia – and the lowest in Serbia and Kosovo.

An extremely small number of people perceive the seven countries of the Western Balkans as a single cultural area. The most frequent number of groups in which the countries were classified is 3, in Albania and Montenegro, and 4, in most of the countries treated as culturally homogeneous

Cultural identification with other Western Balkan nations when it comes to music, literature, art, and entertainment is the strongest in Kosovo and Macedonia and the weakest in Croatia (not in Albania!)

15

In general, there is a lot of mistrust among (20 and 40 year old) people of different ethnicities that lived together in the former SFRY

Q:In your opinion, to what extent can the peoples that lived together in the ex-SFRY be trusted today? – % CAN BE TRUSTED (mainly + completely)

41 33 3620

43

41

38 3521

2841

43

24 2520

7

38

21

35

14

3314

40

39

145

26 9

34

34

2626

2823

33

37

2820

31 16

504142

41

7963

59 45

BiHFederation

Macedonia Montenegro Albania BiH RS Croatia Kosovo Serbia

Macedonians Slovenians Serbs Croatians Albanians Montenegrins Bosniaks / Muslims

16

Extremely small number of people perceive the seven countries of the Western Balkans as a single cultural area: 6% in B&H Federation, 2% each in Montenegro and Macedonia, and 1% each in Croatia and Serbia. The most frequent number of groups in which the countries were classified is 3, in Albania and Montenegro, and 4, in most of the countries.

Q:If you were to group Western Balkan countries according to how close they are culturally, how would you group them? Which countries, in your opinion, are close enough culturally to be classified in the same group?

6 0 2 1 0 2 114

14 2412 13 13 7 11

4927 26 41

24 21 24 24

2031 27

39

32 45 46 33

7 11 17

6

1716 18

16

2 7 53

3 210

7 3 1 19

2 2 5

Albania BiH Federation BiH RS Montenegro Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Serbia

1 2 3 4 5 6 7Number of groups in which countries were classified

17

Cultural identification with other Western Balkan nations when it comes to music, literature, art, and entertainment is the strongest in Kosovo and Macedonia and the weakest in Croatia

Q:When it comes to culture, i.e. music, literature, art, and entertainment in general, to what extent would you say that you share the culture with the other Western Balkan countries?

17 13 12 11 11 10 9

38

3837

2943 48 42

2838 44 39 43 40

31

50

5850

Croatia Albania Macedonia Kosovo BiH RS Serbia Montenegro BiH Federation

No Yes and no Yes

18

19

The most noticeable generational differences are seen in Kosovo (with the oposit pattern of all the rest) where younger generations feel less that they share the culture in terms of music, literature, art and entertainment with the other Western Balkan countries

Q:When it comes to culture, i.e. music, literature, art, and entertainment in general, to what extent would you say that you share the culture with the other Western Balkan countries?

2211 9 5 9 12 15

6 9 10

3626

9 15 12 13 11 10

40

3654

50 50 45 4243 43 41

3937

3029 37 37

48 47

3146

35 43 40 42 40 48 46 4023

33

61 55 50 5038 40

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

No Yes and no Yes

Albania BiH Bosniaks BiH Croats BiH Serbs Montenegro Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Serbia

EAGERNESS TO VISIT THE EX-SFRY COUNTRIES

Quite a substantial number of (20 and 40 year old) people who express eagerness to visit the ex-SFRY countries have not had the chance to visit yet - most of whom in Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo and the least in Croatia and Albania

The younger generation in all of the countries is at least somewhat more eager to visit the other countries in the region

20

Quite a substantial number of people who express eagerness to visit the ex-SFRY countries have not had the chance to visit yet - most of whom in Macedonia, Montenegro and Kosovo and the least in Croatia and Albania

Q:And how eager are you personally to visit the other ex-SFRY countries and Albania (the question for respondents that visited some of the countries referred to the countries they have not already been to) and to meet people who live there?

8162 58 50 50 47 44 42

16

2626

3241

2436

32

3 9 16 188

2815

26

Macedonia Montenegro Kosovo Serbia BiH RS Albania BiH Federation Croatia

Eager Both yes and no Not eager

21

22

The younger generation in all of the countries is at least somewhat more eager to visit the other countries in the region

Q:And how eager are you personally to visit the other ex-SFRY countries and Albania (the question for respondents that visited some of the countries referred to the countries they have not already been to) and to meet people who live there?

3819 13 9

18 2210 7 9 8

29 23 19 14 5 220 15

25

24 3534

39 3648

34 25 26

37

27 2923

15 16

3331

3858 47 54

34 39 4258 64 61

3450 53

6379 83

47 54

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

Not eager Both yes and no Eager

Albania BiH Bosniaks BiH Croats BiH Serbs Montenegro Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Serbia

ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE EU

Citizens (20 and 40 year old) of Western Balkans do wish to visit the EU countries, and somewhat more willing to do that are younger generations

Younger generations in almost all countries are more willing to visit the EU countries

Majority of (20 and 40 year old) citizens support joining the EU, and somewhat more skeptic than others are citizens of Croatia and Serbia

23

24

CITIZENS OF WESTERN BALKANS DO WISH TO VISIT THE EU COUNTRIES, AND SOMEWHAT MORE WILLING TO DO THAT ARE YOUNGER GENERATIONS

To what extent do you wish to visit any of the EU countries?

2 4 3 9 7 13 6 10913 15

16 17

2624 20

89 83 82 76 7661

70 70

Macedonia Montenegro Kosovo Serbia BiH RS Albania BiH Federation Croatia

I don't want to Both yes and no I do wish to

25

YOUNGER GENERATIONS IN ALMOST ALL COUNTRIES ARE MORE WILLING TO VISIT THE EU COUNTRIES

To what extent do you wish to visit any of the EU countries?

207 6 4 8 5 10 4 5 3

146 4 2 2 1

11 6

32

20 2412

3423 21

13 14 12

25

16 14 17 12 7

2011

48

73 6984

5772 69

84 81 85

6179 82 81 86 92

6984

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

I don't wish to Both yes and no I do wish to

Albania BiH Bosbiacs BiH Croats BiH Serbs Montenegro Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Serbia

26

MAJORITY SUPPORTS JOINING THE EU, AND SOMEWHAT MORE SKEPTIC THAN OTHERS ARE CITIZENS OF CROATIA AND SERBIA

Do you support or oppose your country joining the EU?

76 68

95

48 50

87

5738

15 22

2

23

41

6

19

28

9 8 3

29

8 623

32

Macedonia Montenegro Kosovo Serbia BiH RS Albania BiH Federation Croatia

Support Both support and oppose Oppose

LIVING STANDARD AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

‘Average’ is the most frequent evaluation of one’s own living standards in all of the countries except Kosovo, the only country where a majority of (20 and 40 year old) respondents evaluated their living standards as good (comparing with countries average)

The younger generations in Croatia and Serbia have more positive attitudes towards the international community’s curent role in their countries than the older ones, and this difference is especially noticeable in Croatia (although in both countries are more skeptical regarding EU)

Majority think that it is not likely a new armed conflict between countries of the Western Balkans could break out, but those from Serbia, and Macedonia are less sure of it than those in the other countries

27

Q:How would you evaluate your own and your family’s living standards?

10 18 12 18 15 15 21

39

46 5353 52 55

54 51

36 35 30 33 30 25 25

24

51

Kosovo BiH Federation Albania Macedonia Montenegro Croatia BiH RS Serbia

Bad Average Good

‘Average’ is the most frequent evaluation of one’s own living standards in all of the countries except Kosovo, the only country where a majority of respondents evaluated their living standards as good

28

23 15 20 21

51 52

76 75

34 30

6145

28 3141 36

7162

211 6 9

1

6 5

911

13

14

2 1

22

8

1075 74 74 71

48 49

18 20

57 59

2641

70 6957 62

20 28

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

1971

1991

The International Community in our country has a positive role in the development of democratic institutionsand introduction of reformsDK-Ref

The International Community interferes too much in our country’s internal affairs

Albania BiH Bosniaks BiH Croats BiH Serbs Montenegro Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Serbia

The younger generations in Croatia and Serbia have more positive attitudes towards the international community’s role in their countries than the older ones, and this difference is especially noticeable in Croatia

Q:And what is your opinion about the international community’s current role in our country? Some people think that the international community interferes too much in their country's internal affairs, while others think that the international community has a positive role in the country when it comes to the development of democratic institutions and the launch of reforms. Which opinion is closer to your own?

29

30

Majority think that it is not likely a new armed conflict between countries of the Western Balkans could break out, but those from Serbia, and Macedonia are less sure of it than those in the other countries And how likely or unlikely do you think the outbreak of new armed

conflicts between certain Western Balkan countries is in the coming three to five years?

65 72 6557

70 7556 50

12 15 1217

13 10

17 17

9 11 14 17 11 14 2227

Albania BiH Federation BiH RS Montenegro Croatia Kosovo Macedonia Serbia

Unlikely Both yes and no Likely

30

Prof. Dr Srdjan BogosavljevićDirector, Ipsos Strategic Marketing Gavrila Principa 8, Belgrade, Serbia

Direct: +381 11 263 4161 Mobile: +381 63 232727psrdjan.bogosavljevic@ipsos.com

http://www.ipsos.com Home of Researchers

Thank you