from push to pull: seven trends shaping the future of specialty advertising asi power summit...

From Push to Pull:Seven Trends Shaping the Future of Specialty Advertising

ASI Power SummitSeptember 2014 Scottsdale, AZ

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies [email protected]

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

Be Fast (Strategic Agility) – We Live in a World of Accelerating Change

Annual Growth Rates (Look for 5-50%, Use Rule of 72) 3-4% US Economy, Most Markets 6% Advertising Specialty Industry ($20.5B 2013, $38B 2020) 9% China’s Economy, Some Emerging Markets 14% Global Online eCommerce, Top Chinese Cities 20% Global eCommerce Technology Market 25% Health Care Analytics, India’s Organic Food Market 35% Computing & Communication Ability, Per $ (“Moore’s law”) 55% Creation and Sharing of Digital Info (“Tagging the World”)

The Digital Universe and Big Data, EMC/IDC, 2014-2020

Doz & Kosonen 2008 Toffler 2007

http://www.emc.com/leadership/digital-universe/index.htm



Be Contrarian – It’s a Volatile World, With Big Up and Downcycles

APP Industry Report, BIC Investor Relations, 2009

ASI, 2014

Navarro, 2006

http://www.bicworld.com/img/pdf/ADAY_FINAL_INDUSTRY0.pdf

http://www.amazon.com/The-Well-Timed-Strategy-Competitive-Advantage/dp/0138022925



Be Foresighted –See Possible, Probable, and Preferable Futures

Strategy, Analysis, Planning

Innovation, IdeationDesign, Entrepreneurship

Forecasting, Financial,Risk Mgmt., Security

“Trees” “Funnels”

Smart, 2015

“Landscapes”



Gallup’s 34 Workplace Strengths,and Four Strength Clusters

1. Strategic Thinking 2. Executing 3. Influencing 4. Relating

“Knowing Where to Go” “Getting Somewhere” “Getting There With Others” “Keeping Others on Your Team”

● Analytical

● Context

● Futuristic

● Ideation

● Input

● Intellection

● Learner

● Strategic

● Achiever

● Arranger

● Belief

● Consistency

● Deliberative

● Discipline

● Focus

● Responsibility

● Restorative

● Activator

● Command

● Communication

● Competition

● Maximizer

● Self-Assurance

● Significance

● Woo

● Adaptability

● Developer

● Connectedness

● Empathy

● Harmony

● Includer

● Individualization

● Positivity

● Relator

Foresight Doing

Be Diverse – Use Your Team’s Strengths

StrengthsFinder is $14 per employee. Start with this tool!

Rath, 2007 Rath&Conchie, 2009 Page, 2008

LEARN SEE DO REVIEW

From: The Foresight Guide: Being a Leader in Creating, Anticipating, and Managing the Future by John Smart, with Susan Fant, Joshua Davis, Anna-Leena Vasamo and the FERN Practitioner Community. Coming Jan 2015 at Amazon and ForesightGuide.com.

Eight Skills of Adaptive Foresight: The Learn-See-Do-Review Cycle (“Do

loop”)

1. Learning – “Knowing Your History and Status” (Investigative thinking)Intelligence (Research), Learning & Development (Training), Metrics (Triple Bottom Line Accounting)

2. Innovation – “Possiblity Foresight” (Divergent thinking) Idea Generation (Alternatives, Stories, Scenarios), Design, Innovation Mgmt, Entrepreneurship3. Anticipation – “Probability Foresight” (Convergent thinking)Forecasting (Models, Predictive Analytics), Investing, Risk Management, Law & Security4. Strategy – “Preference Foresight” (Adaptive thinking) Strategy (Framing, Priorities, Goals, Strat. Visions), Analysis (Decision Support), Planning(Quick, Strategic, Roadmaps)

5. Execution – “Getting Somewhere” (Production thinking)Product/Service/Project Management (Operations, Engrg, Sourcing, ICT, KM) 6. Influence – “Recruiting Others” (Market thinking)Marketing Management (Sales, Biz Dev, Market Research, Cust Svc, CRM)7. Relating – “Keeping Others On Your Team” (Team thinking)Performance Management (HR, Compensation, Ethics, Culture, Advisors, CSR, Communications, Public Relations)

8. Reviewing – “Staying On Target” (Adjustment thinking)Scorecards (Feedback), Quality, Change Management (Critiquing, Unlearning, Correcting)

Kouzes&Posner, 2012



How to Sell in an Ever Faster World?

LearnSee

Do

Review

The Do Loop

1. Know Your History and Current Condition

2. Use Possible Probable & Preferable Foresight

(3 Ps)

4. Stay On Target, or Get Back On Target

3. Get Somewhere, with Others,

and Keep Them Happy

© 2014 Accelerating.orgSmart, The Foresight Guide, 2014



Seven Trends for the Future of Specialty Advertising

1. Specialization – Profiting on an Ever Smarter Web

2. Trade – Working Globally, Acting Quickly

3. Automation – Cost Deflation & Innovation Will Continue

4. Social – Leading Your Customers

5. Personalization – Wearables to Environments

6. Collaboration – Groupnets to Global English

7. Empowerment – C.I. to the Digital Twin



#1: Specialization – Profiting on an Ever Smarter Web

Beauty Creativity/Novelty Utility Sustainability

Wikipedia, 2013

PP

What’s Your Specialty, and Story?

Are you English language only?

Distributors:41% say Websites are top threat.16% of revs come from eCommerce



Promo Something Useful…

Utility:Pre-wrap the earbuds, add bit of elastic to tuck in the buds.Preload the Clip with free, DRM-free music and podcasts.Plug your cap in to charge it once or twice a month.

iXoundWear cap, $5

JLab Jbuds, $6

Cyclops LED cap light, $4

Sansa Clip,$26 Refurb, $33 New Tube Sock

Phone Armband, $1



#2: Trade – Working Globally, Acting Quickly

Sloane 2012

Promo Products By Need, John Herceg, 1999

What’s Your Global Trade Strategy, By Need?

iPhone 3G Value Added by Country, 2009

Ries 2011

http://home.comcast.net/~jhadman/Pie_Chart.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~jhadman/Pie_Chart.gif



Wearable Battery Belts

Prototype Promo Item.

Need magnetic induction charging for phone and belt, like PowermatNeed multiple sizes, styles, and thicknesses.Lithium polymer can be woven, like fabric.

http://www.instructables.com/id/Stylish-Battery-Belt/ Powermat, 2012.



#3: Automation –More Cost Deflation and Innovation Ahead

Productive Sales Force Automation, Database Marketing Business Mgmt Software (ERP, Social CRM) Digital and Machine Tools (CAD, Laser)Overhyped Today, Niche Uses to 2020. 3D Printing Holograms Drones

What’s Your Automation Strategy?Fenn&Raskino 2008

http://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Hype-Cycle-Innovation-Gartner/dp/1422121100/



#4: Social Change –Leading Your Customers

Millennials. 1/3 of US adults, 46% of US workforce by 2020.Women. Pushing towards pay and representation parity.Hispanics. 17% of US Pop (53M). Next doubling (100M) in 2050.Local. Growing in direct proportion to Mobile Digital.

What’s Your Cause? Is it Obvious?

Fromm&Garton 2013 Brennan 2011



#5: Personalization –Wearables to Environments

25M Users, $1B Revs in 2013Getting Major “Mobile Lift”

13 Million UsersMostly Young Women

Valued at $5B

Marketing Suite for “Visual Web”Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr

Rechargeable LED Belt, $1.5-3.5, YZG, Shenzhen

Brandon Laskowski, Evolved-Footware.com

Kansas City, MO

Fitbit Jawbone Apple

Wearable Electronics. $4B today. $20-60B by 2020.

What’s Your Personalization Strategy?

150 Friends. 20M Users



Gametables: A New Product Category

Microsoft-Samsung PixelSense (40”D) - 1st Gen (2008). 22 inch thick table top, 200 lbs, $18,000- 2nd Gen (2012) 4 inch table top, 80 lbs, $8,400.Lenovo Horizon (27”D)1st Gen 2013, $1500. 2nd Gen 2014, 17 lbs, $1,300Not kid, game focused. Picture viewing app is “feature creep.”Just nine games. No “Pong”. Air hockey still has lag. Ouch!No marketing. No IKEA table. No Apple.Promo in schools, bars, game ctrs. Client game on App store?

Lenovo Horizon 2, $1,300PixelSense SUR40, $8,400



#6: Collaboration –Groupnets to Global English

Proto-Crowdfounding Sites Innovation Management Platforms

Wristphone$500 FREE

Groupnets: In the Future,Everyone has a “Lifeline”.

Best-Connected Groups Win.

Global English: 600M new English speakers by 2030?

Global eTutoring: $12B in 2014.

India. $12-$20/hr

What’s Your Collaboration Strategy?



#7: Empowerment –Conversational Interface to the Digital Twin

What’s Your Digital Strategy? Does it Empower Customers?

Next IT’s Virtual Agents

Apple’s Siri on iPhone 4, 2011

IBM Watson Jeopardy Challenge, 2011In 2006 Watson got 13% of Jeopardy! Q’s.By 2011, Watson got 90% of Q’s correct.



Learn More

Jan 2015 on Amazon

Free e-Draft (email me!).

Questions?

[email protected]

Thanks!

mailto:[email protected]

from push to pull: seven trends shaping the future of specialty advertising asi power summit...

Documents

advertising specialty

volatile world

downcyclesapp industry

global digital info

global online ecommerce

digital universe

big data

us economy