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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
FROM MATRIC INTO AND THROUGH UNIVERSITY
University access and success for the 2008 National Matric cohort
Hendrik van Broekhuizen, Servaas van der Berg, and Heleen Hofmeyr
31 October 2017
RESEPResearch on Socio-Economic Policy
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Project background Research context
Project backgroundProject context and research outputs
I Part of Labour Market Intelligence Project (LMIP)I ’Pathways through education and training and into the workplace’
I Forthcoming LMIP book chapter (est. 2018)I Working papers almost available...:LMIP: http://www.lmip.org.za/lmippublications
I Working papers available:US: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za/wpapers/IZA: http://ftp.iza.org/dp10358.pdf
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Project background Research context
ContextWhy?
I Relatively few graduates in SA’s skills-shortage contextI < 9% of youth have tertiary education; only 4% have degrees
I Low university access (GER < 20%) + weak university throughputI Lack of data undermines understanding of these phenomenaI No integration of school and university data⇒ limited understanding
I transition from secondary school into and through universityI how secondary schooling outcomes influence university outcomes.
I But now...
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Project background Research context
ContextHow?
I Nationally representative, integrated, longitudinal administrative dataset onmatric learners and public university students1
I explicitly links unit-record data on NSC examinations and school characteristics withpublic university enrolments and graduations at the national level
I Makes it possible to “track” learners from matric into and through universityI Allows detailed, nationally representative quantitative analysis of
I transitions from school to university (access)I how matric results, demographics, and school background influence universityoutcomes (correlates)
I how students progress through the public university system (completion & dropout)
1Acknowledgements: DBE and DHET (Kirsten Barth) for the data linking, anonymisation, and provision.From Matric into and through university (31/10/2017) http://resep.sun.ac.za 4 / 25
Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Project background Research context
ContextWhat?
I Use integrated 2008 NSC and 2009 - 2014 HEMIS data toI examine university access, entrance, completion, and exit patternsI over a six year period (2009 - 2014)I for all learners who wrote the 2008 NSC exams
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
1. Getting to Matric 2. Doing well in Matric 3. Getting to university 4. Doing well at university
Why does SA have so few graduates?4 major bottlenecks on the path to getting a university qualification
100Start
School
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
1. Getting to Matric 2. Doing well in Matric 3. Getting to university 4. Doing well at university
Why does SA have so few graduates?4 major bottlenecks on the path to getting a university qualification
100
60
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
1. Getting to Matric 2. Doing well in Matric 3. Getting to university 4. Doing well at university
Why does SA have so few graduates?4 major bottlenecks on the path to getting a university qualification
100
60
37 14 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (31/10/2017) http://resep.sun.ac.za 6 / 25
Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
1. Getting to Matric 2. Doing well in Matric 3. Getting to university 4. Doing well at university
Why does SA have so few graduates?4 major bottlenecks on the path to getting a university qualification
100
60
37
12
14 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
8 go immediately4 go later
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (31/10/2017) http://resep.sun.ac.za 6 / 25
Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
1. Getting to Matric 2. Doing well in Matric 3. Getting to university 4. Doing well at university
Why does SA have so few graduates?4 major bottlenecks on the path to getting a university qualification
100
60
37
12
6
14 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
8 go immediately4 go later
get some kind of undergraduate university qualification within 6 years after matric
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (31/10/2017) http://resep.sun.ac.za 6 / 25
Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
1. Getting to Matric 2. Doing well in Matric 3. Getting to university 4. Doing well at university
Why does SA have so few graduates?4 major bottlenecks on the path to getting a university qualification
100
60
37
12
6
4
14 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
8 go immediately4 go later
get some kind of undergraduate university qualification within 6 years after matric
get a degree within 6 years after matric
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Measuring university outcomes for the 2008 NSC cohort4 Outcomes metrics: access, completion, dropout, and conversion rates
I t-year access rate =
[(t∑
i=1
FTEN2008+i
)|NSC2008
]/NSC2008
I t-year completion rate =
[(t∑
i=1
FTC2008+i
)|FTEN2009,NSC2008
]/FTEN2009
I t-year dropout rate =
[(t∑
i=1
D2008+i
)|FTEN2009,NSC2008
]/FTEN2009
I t-year conversion rate =
[(t∑
i=1
FTC2008+i
)|NSC2008
]/NSC2008
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Summarised outcomes Delayed access (S)low throughput Dropout
University outcomes for the 2008 NSC cohortOne to six year access, completion, dropout, and retention rates for the
1 year(2009)
2 years(2010)
3 years(2011)
4 years(2012)
5 years(2013)
6 years(2014)
Access rate 12.9 16.7 18.2 19.0 19.6 20.0Completion rate 0.2 0.5 15.4 36.9 50.3 58.1Dropout rate 9.2 14.5 19.2 23.4 28.4 —Retention rate 85.6 80.4 60.9 36.9 21.1 —
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Summarised outcomes Delayed access (S)low throughput Dropout
Delayed university entry is significant and persistentOne to six year access rates for the 2008 to 2013 matric cohorts
13.0
11.7 12
.3
10.0
13.6 14
.6
16.7
16.4 17
.7
14.2
18.7
18.2
18.3 19
.7
15.7
19.0
19.3 20
.6
19.6
19.9
20.0
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Cum
ulat
ive
univ
ersit
y ac
cess
rat
e
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Matric Cohort
1-year 2-year 2-year 4-year 5-year 6-year
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Summarised outcomes Delayed access (S)low throughput Dropout
Students take long to graduate - if at all4 vs 6-year completion rates for the 2008 matric cohort
36.9
32.3
38.8
31.8
34.9
36.0
52.7
32.9
32.9
41.5
39.0
11.3UNISA
Contact
Quintile 5
Quintile 4
Quintile 1-3
White
Asian
Coloured
Black
Degrees
Dip/Cert
Overall
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
4-year completion rate
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Summarised outcomes Delayed access (S)low throughput Dropout
Students take long to graduate - if at all4 vs 6-year completion rates for the 2008 matric cohort
36.9
32.3
38.8
31.8
34.9
36.0
52.7
32.9
32.9
41.5
39.0
11.3
58.1
47.8
61.6
53.5
53.8
62.1
71.6
54.0
54.2
62.9
60.6
27.9UNISA
Contact
Quintile 5
Quintile 4
Quintile 1-3
White
Asian
Coloured
Black
Degrees
Dip/Cert
Overall
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
4-year vs 6-year completion rate
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Summarised outcomes Delayed access (S)low throughput Dropout
University dropout is high, but not as high as often claimed*5-year dropout rates for the 2008 matric cohort
28.4
39.8
22.2
32.0
33.8
22.8
18.1
33.3
30.8
23.9
27.0
45.4UNISA
Contact
Quintile 5
Quintile 4
Quintile 1-3
White
Asian
Coloured
Black
Degrees
Dip/Cert
Overall
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
5-year dropout rate (%)
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Matric average achievement Gateway subjects
Matric performance really matters for university outcomesMatric average and university access, completion, and dropout
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Rat
e
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Matric average achievement
1-year access 6-year access 6-year completion 5-year dropout
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Matric average achievement Gateway subjects
Gateway subjects really matter for university accessGateway subject participation and performance vs university access
25.1
31.1
68.6
89.3
14.3
5.7
25.0
46.1
26.1
38.3
85.1
93.3
14.9
2.6
34.3
84.0
80%60%40%
Wrote
80%60%40%
Wrote
80%60%40%
Wrote
80%60%40%
Wrote
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mat
hsM
ath
Lite
racy
Phys
ical
Scie
nces
Engl
ishFA
L
6-year access rate (%)
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Matric average achievement Gateway subjects
Gateway subjects also matter for programme completionGateway subject participation and performance vs university completion
63.2
54.3
58.6
74.8
46.6
27.2
41.3
50.0
62.5
49.7
67.0
83.8
56.8
41.1
52.1
75.9
80%60%40%
Wrote
80%60%40%
Wrote
80%60%40%
Wrote
80%60%40%
Wrote
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mat
hsM
ath
Lite
racy
Phys
ical
Scie
nces
Engl
ishFA
L
6-year completion rate (%)
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
University outcomes differences Intake performance differences
Big differences in outcomes across universitiesCompletion and dropout rates for the 2008 matric cohort, by university (2009 FTEN degrees)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rat
e
DU
T
US
NW
U
CPU
T
UFH
RH
OD
ES UZ
UC
T
UP
UL
UN
IVEN UFS
UKZ
N
NM
MU
TUT
WSU U
J
WIT
S
UW
C
CU
T
UN
ISA
4-yearCompletion rate
6-yearCompletion rate
5-yearDropout rate
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
University outcomes differences Intake performance differences
Huge differences in matric performance across universitiesMatric average achievement distributions for the 2008 matric cohort, by university (2009 FTEN degrees)
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mat
ric a
vera
ge a
chie
vem
ent
UC
T
US
UP
WIT
S
RH
OD
ES
UKZ
N
NW
U
UFS
NM
MU UJ
UN
ISA
MU
T
VU
T
UL
DU
T
UW
C
UN
IVEN
CPU
T
UZ
WSU
UFH
TUT
CU
T
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success The crux Conditional differentials
Differentials in university accessUniversity access rates by race group - all candidates
16.619.8
43.3
47.4
8.8
14.2
36.3
42.5
71.2
63.1
72.8
63.4
53.7 53.3
66.1
59
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Black Coloured Indian White Black Coloured Indian White
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (
%)
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success The crux Conditional differentials
Differentials in university accessUniversity access rates by race group - all candidates vs Bachelor pass candidates
16.619.8
43.347.4
8.8
14.2
36.3
42.5
71.2
63.1
72.8
63.4
53.7 53.3
66.1
59
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Black Coloured Indian White Black Coloured Indian White
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (%
)
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success The crux Conditional differentials
Differentials in university throughputCompletion and dropout for the 2008 NSC cohort (2009 FTEN only), by race and programme type
(All undergraduate) (Undergraduate degree)
4-year C 6-year C 5-year D 4-year C 6-year C 5-year D
Black African 31.8 53.5 32.0 31.7 55.8 24.0Coloured 34.9 53.8 33.8 34.1 54.8 29.6Indian/Asian 36.0 62.1 22.8 36.8 63.7 18.9White 52.7 71.6 18.1 52.7 72.3 16.2
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success The crux Conditional differentials
Reality: significant matric performance differentialsCumulative matric average achievement distribution for the 2008 matric cohort
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cum
ulat
ive
perc
enta
ge
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Matric average achievement
Black Coloured Asian White
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success The crux Conditional differentials
Reality: significant matric performance differentialsCumulative matric average achievement distribution for the 2008 matric cohort - Bachelor passes only
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Cum
ulat
ive
perc
enta
ge
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Matric average achievement
Black Coloured Asian White
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success The crux Conditional differentials
Conditional differentials in university outcomesUndergraduate access, completion, conversion, and dropout rates - with controls
Acc1 Acc6 Com4 Com6 Drop5 Conv6
(All undergraduate programmes)
Coloured −5.1*** −9.6*** −3.0*** −6.1*** 7.9*** −4.5***Indian/Asian −4.5*** =12.8*** −5.4*** −6.4*** 7.5*** −5.7***White =15.3*** =19.9*** 8.0*** 0.2 4.3*** −7.4***
(Undergraduate degree programmes only)
Coloured 0.5*** 0.3* −0.5 −2.6*** 6.7*** −0.1Indian/Asian 3.2*** 0.7** −0.7 −1.1 3.9*** 0.9***White −3.4*** −2.7*** 11.6*** 4.7*** 2.7*** 1.3***
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success Conditional differentials
Differentials in university accessUniversity access rates by school quintile - all candidates
9.211.2
14.7
23.5
45.2
4.4 5.57.4
13.7
34.9
63.265.8
67.6 68.470
44.647.8
49.653.1
62
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (
%)
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success Conditional differentials
Differentials in university accessUniversity access rates by school quintile - all candidates vs Bachelor pass candidates
9.211.2
14.7
23.5
45.2
4.4 5.57.4
13.7
34.9
63.265.8
67.6 68.4 70
44.647.8
49.653.1
62
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (%
)
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success Conditional differentials
Differentials in university throughputCompletion and dropout for the 2008 NSC cohort (2009 FTEN only), by quintile and programme type
(All undergraduate) (Undergraduate degree)
4-year C 6-year C 5-year D 4-year C 6-year C 5-year D
Quintile 1 34.8 55.5 32.2 36.5 59.5 24.2Quintile 2 32.8 55.7 31.7 34.0 59.2 22.6Quintile 3 32.1 52.3 34.9 32.6 55.5 26.5Quintile 4 32.9 54.2 30.8 33.4 56.7 23.7Quintile 5 41.5 62.9 23.9 42.8 65.1 19.4
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Access Success Conditional differentials
Conditional differentials in university outcomesUndergraduate access, completion, conversion, and dropout rates - with controls
Acc1 Acc6 Com4 Com6 Drop5 Conv6
(All undergraduate programmes)
Quintile 2 −0.2** −0.1 −2.6*** −1.1 0.9 −0.3***Quintile 3 0.6*** 0.7*** −4.8*** −5.4*** 4.7*** −0.5***Quintile 4 2.6*** 3.0*** −8.0*** −7.1*** 3.4*** −0.1Quintile 5 6.2*** 5.6*** −8.4*** −6.7*** 2.6*** 0.7***
(Undergraduate degree programmes only)
Quintile 2 −0.4*** −0.3*** −4.1*** −2.2 0.6 −0.4***Quintile 3 0.4*** −0.5*** −7.2*** −7.2*** 5.0*** −0.7***Quintile 4 0.0 −0.5*** =12.0*** =10.9*** 4.0*** −1.3***Quintile 5 3.1*** 1.9*** =11.6*** −9.7*** 3.3*** 0.3**
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Main insightsImportant new or reaffirmed findings
1. Very few matriculants obtain university qualifications - even fewer obtain degrees
2. Nearly 1/3 of Bachelor passers never go to university
3. Many matrics who go to university only do so two or more years after finishingschool
4. Many students take a long time to complete university qualifications or do notcomplete at all
5. Significant inequalities in university outcomes between race and socio-economicgroups remain evident
6. BUT (NB) much of these differentials appear to be the result of schoolachievement differentials
7. Students from less advantaged backgrounds who perform well in matric mayface relatively good university outcomes - small, but growing group
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Introduction Bottlenecks Methodology Outcomes Matric performance Institutions Race Quintile Conclusion
Thank youComment & questions
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