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IFC Workshop on the use of financial accounts, co-organised with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
18-20 March 2019, Istanbul, Turkey
From financial accounts towards integrated accounts: the case of Turkey1
Aycan Ozek,
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
1 This presentation was prepared for the meeting. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS, the IFC or the central banks
and other institutions represented at the meeting.
From Financial Accounts TowardsIntegrated Accounts: Case of Turkey
Marck 18-20, 2019 Workshop on the Use of Financial Accounts, Istanbul
Aycan Ozek
Statistics DepartmentMonetary and Financial Data Division
WAY FORWARD
OUTLINE
MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND
WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR
2
MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND
WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR
3
International Initiatives
4
G 20 DATA GAPS INITIATIVE
Recommendation II.8. Sectoral Accounts
Target: Disseminate non-financial, financial accounts and balance sheet data8/1
- Dissemination of non-financial accounts transactions (Annual data)
- Dissemination of non-financial accounts transactions (Quarterly data)
- Dissemination of stocks of non-financial assets (Annual data)
- Dissemination of financial accounts and balance sheets (Annual data)
- Dissemination of financial accounts and balance sheets (Quarterly data)
Consistency Concern
Net Lending / Borrowing
5
B9_NON FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS
B9F_FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS
PRODUCTION ACCOUNTS
GENERATION OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION
CAPITAL ACCOUNTS
FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS
Timeline
6
December
2016
InstitutionalSector Accounts by Turkstat
February
2017
Integrated Accounts Working Group
June
2018
1st Workshop
January
2019
2nd Workshop
Integrated Accounts Working Group
7
Financial Corporations
General Government
Rest of the World
Nonfinancial Corporations
Housheholds & NPISH
• Data Sources
• Sector Coverage
• Methodology
MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND
WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR
8
Financial Corporations
9
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
-I
20
15
-II
20
15
-III
20
15
-IV
20
16
-I
20
16
-II
20
16
-III
20
16
-IV
20
17
-I
20
17
-II
20
17
-III
20
17
-IV
20
18
-I
20
18
-II
20
18
-III
Monetary financial institutions other than Central Bank Central Bank Other financial intermediaries
Financial auxiliaries Insurance corporations and pension funds Financial Corporations
Financial Corporations, Net Worth (% GDP)
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
Financial Corporations
10
DIFFERENTDATA SOURCES
WORK AT SUBSECTOR
LEVEL
IMPROVEMENTIN DATA
COVERAGE
INSURANCESECTOR TASK
FORCE
PILOT STUDYAND
CONSULTANCE
NFA sub sectorbreakdown is not sufficient
• Investment funds• Financial auxiliaries
• Eliminate discrepancies in FA and NFA• Data warehouse for all financial reports (IIMC)• Counterpart data of ITC
Financial Corporations
11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Financial Corporations-B9f Financial Corporations-B9
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY) Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*
* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
General Government
12
-%30
-%25
-%20
-%15
-%10
-%5
%0
%5
%10
%15
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
-I
20
15
-II
20
15
-III
20
15
-IV
20
16
-I
20
16
-II
20
16
-III
20
16
-IV
20
17
-I
20
17
-II
20
17
-III
20
17
-IV
20
18
-I
20
18
-II
20
18
-III
Central Government Local Government Social Security Institutions General Government
General Government, Net Worth (% GDP)
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
General Government
13
SAME DATA SOURCE
GFS REVISIONS DATA SHARING
REVIEWBRIDGE
TABLES FORGFS & EDP
Common Revision Policy
Online Platform for GFS Data
REVISE GGDEFINITION
General Government _After Revision
14
• General government data is revised beginning the 1st Quarter of 2015
• The biggest effect is on central government sector for 2015 and 2016 data periods
• The biggest change is observed in other accounts payable/receivable in all sectors
• Maturity breakdowns are updated for loans and debt securities
• PPPs are the only difference between FA andGFS since 2016 Q4
General Government, (TRY billion)
-600
-550
-500
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
General Government Net Worth(old) General Government Net Worth(new)
GFS Net Worth
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts, Ministry of Treasury and Finance
General Government
15
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
General Government-B9f General Government-B9 GFS
Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*
* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
Rest of the World
16Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
Net Worth by Sectors (% GDP)
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
2015
-I
201
5-I
I
20
15-I
II
20
15-I
V
2016
-I
201
6-I
I
20
16-I
II
20
16-I
V
2017
-I
201
7-I
I
20
17-I
II
20
17-I
V
2018
-I
201
8-I
I
20
18-I
II
Non-Financial Corporations Rest of the World Households General Government Financial Corporations Total Economy Rest of the World
Rest of the World
17
DIFFERENTDATA SOURCES
COMPAREDATA
COVERAGE
ADAPT IIPAND BOP FOR
FA
REVIEWFINANCIAL
DERIVATIVES
BOP-FA BRIDGETABLE
• FA uses IIP, BOP and Money and Banking statistics as data source
• NFA uses BOP only
Revisions in BOP anf FA
Rest of the World
18
Instrument IIP FA
Deposits (preciousmetal deposit account)
Not included Included
Equity (shares) Fully covered Partially covered
Financial derivatives Not included Included
Other AR/AP-Other Not included Included
Financial assetsMonetary gold and SDRsCurrency and depositsDebt securities LoansEquity and IF Shares/unitsFinancial derivatives Other accounts receivable
Trade credits and advancesOther
LiabilitiesCurrency and depositsDebt securities LoansEquity and IF Shares/unitsFinancial derivatives Other accounts payableTrade credits and advancesOther
Financial net worth
Cash Base Accrual Base
Rest of the World
19
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Rest of the World-B9f Rest of the World-B9
Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*
* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
Non Financial Corporations
20Source: CBRT Financial Accounts , OECD, Turkstat
Non Financial Corporations’ Liabilities / GDP, Country Comparison
0
2
4
6
8
Gre
ece
Slo
vaki
a
Po
lan
d
Ger
man
y
Slo
ven
ia
Latv
ia
Turk
ey
Au
stri
a
Ital
y
Cze
chia
Hu
nga
ry
Kore
a
Po
rtu
gal
Esto
nia
Fin
lan
d
Spai
n
Euro
Zo
ne
USA
No
rway
Den
mar
k
Bel
giu
m
Net
her
lan
ds
Fran
ce
Swed
en
Irel
and
Non Financial Corporations
21
MULTIPLE ANDDIFFERENT DATA
SOURCESRESIDUAL SECTOR
BRIDGE TABLEFROM TAX DATA
• Same administrative data (Revenue Administration) in FA for some intruments, mainly counterpart data
• Unrecorded economy is included in NFA
• Will be compared after all sectors are consistent
Non Financial Corporations
22
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Non Financial Corporations-B9f Non Financial Corporations-B9
Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*
* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
Households & NPISH
23Source: CBRT Financial Accounts , OECD, Turkstat
Households’ Liabilities / GDP, Country Comparison
0
1
2
Turk
ey
Hu
nga
ry
Latv
ia
Slo
ven
ia
Cze
chia
Po
lan
d
Esto
nia
Slo
vaki
a
Irel
and
Au
stri
a
Ger
man
y
Ital
y
Gre
ece
Bel
giu
m
Euro
Zo
ne
Spai
n
Fran
ce
Fin
lan
d
USA
Po
rtu
gal
Swed
en
Kore
a
No
rway
Net
her
lan
ds
Den
mar
k
Households & NPISH
24
COUNTERPARTDATA (HH)
+ RESIDUAL SECTOR
• Same administrative data in FA (Revenue Administration) for NPISH for some intruments, mainly counterpart data
• Will be compared after all sectors are consistent
SAME DATA SOURCE (NPISH)
Households & NPISH
25
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Household&NPISH-B9f Household&NPISH-B9
Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)
0%
1%
2%
3%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*
* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP
Source: CBRT Financial Accounts
WAY FORWARD
MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND
WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR
26
Way Forward
27
Data Sharing
Common Revision Policy
Consistency & Revisions
• Investment Funds• Financial Auxiliaries
Improvement in Coverage
Semi Annual Workshops
Bridge Tables• General Government• Non Financial Corporations• Insurance Corporations
• GFS Online Platform• Insurance sector data
Thank you…Aycan Ozek
DirectorMonetary and Financial Data DivisionStatitics Department
Phone: +90 312 507 6970E-mail: [email protected]