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The Great Recession? How IsThe Great Recession? How IsAlaska Doing?Alaska Doing?

Transportation Club of TacomaTransportation Club of Tacoma

June 14, 2010June 14, 2010

Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development,Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development,Research Section, Neal Fried, EconomistResearch Section, Neal Fried, Economist

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

-10.0

-12.0

oty percent change

containers to AK AK employment AK population

Is There A Correlation?

Source: Port of Tacoma and Alaska Department of Labor, R&A.

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I Guess It Might Be True--We ConsumeMore During Hard Times

17.6

16.3 15.8

18.3

16.717.7

17.2

18.4

16.6

17.4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

millions of gallons of alcohol sold in Alaska

Source:Alaska Department of Revenue

2010sconsumption

is also up

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1959 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2009

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

number of jobs

the bust

oil revenueboom

Alaska's 21 Years Of UninterruptedGrowth Is Now Over

21 years of growth

personal income fell for first time in 22 years

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Job Losses Vary From State to StateWere Doing Pretty Well

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

-6.1%

-0.5%

-4.6%

-7.0% -7.0%-6.7% -6.9%

U.S. Alaska Wash. Oregon Idaho Hawaii California

percent jobs lost thus far in this recession

-8.4 million -1,500 -136,300 -120,900 -46,400 -41,800 -1,043,000

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Tale of Three Economies--We Are Very Different-Gross State/National Product

Alaska U.S. Washington0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Remainder Oil Government Transport. Manufacturing

Source:BEA

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Alaska Is The Most Dissimilar? Is That Why YouDont Understand Us?

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25Dissimilarity Relative To Washington State

Oregon Idaho Montana Alaska

Alaska

Montana

IdahoOregon

Washington

Source: Washington Employment Security Department.

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12State of Alaska unrestricted revenues ($billions)

This Does Not Hurt Alaska

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Alaskas Economic Drivers

Seafood 10%

Mining 3%

Timber 2%

Tourism 11%

Air Cargo 2%

Federal 36%

Personal Assets 5%Other 1%

Oil 30%

Source: UAA, ISER.

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So, What Are Some Of The EconomicForces In Play In The Near Term

Negative Neutral Positive

Oil Production Federal $$$$$$$ Military

cruise ships Air Cargo

Gulf Oil Spill Good fiscal position

Mining

=+ +

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Where Jobs Are Forecast To Come From AndDisappear In 2010

-1,400

-400

-300-300

-300

-400-800

500

900

Total

Oil

Professional & Bus. Svcs.

Construction

Transportation

Retail

Leisure & Hospitality

Health Care

Government

Job gains and losses in Alaska in 2010

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

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This Year There Are Lots of Forecasts OutThere For Alaska

-0.2%

-0.6%

-1.9%

-0.6%

Department of Labor (best) Northern Economics Moody's Wells Fargo

2009 Employment Growth-Alaska

-700jobs

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, Northern Economics, Wells Fargo, Moodys.

-3,400jobs

-6,200jobs

-1,900jobs

This Year There Are Lots of Forecasts OutThere For Alaska-2010

-0.4%

0.9%

-1.5%

Department of Labor (best) Moody's Reaume

Employment

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, Northern Economics, Wells Fargo, Moodys.

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Consistent Growth, but Slowest SinceStatehood

4.5%

6.3%

3.3%

1.9%1.3%

1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000-2009

Annual Average Employment Growth

5.2 4.9

4.5 4.1 3.8

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section.

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Ranking State

1 Louisiana

2 Hawaii

3 Florida4 Tennessee

5 Arizona

6 Mississippi

7 Montana

8 South Carolina9 Alabama

10 Maine

11 Alaska

30 Oregon

36 Washington

Hey, we are a pretty happy state

Source: Science Magazine

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We Still Look Pretty Good On TheIncome Front

Ranking StateMedian Household

Income-2008

ANCHORAGE $75,637

1 Maryland $70,545

2 New Jersey $70,3783 Connecticut $68,595

4 ALASKA $68,460

5 Hawaii $67,214

6 Massachusetts $65,401

7 New Hampshire $63,7318 Virginia $61,233

9 California $61,021

10 Washington $58,078

U.S. $52,029

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

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High Unemployment Has Become the Norm

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

4.4%

6.0%

4.4%5.0%

2.8% 2.8%

10.0%9.2% 9.6%

12.7%

9.1%

8.0%

U.S. Alaska Washington Oregon Idaho Hawaii

unemployment rate

Pre-Recession Recession High

Highest

since 1991

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Alaskas And The Nations UnemploymentRates Move In Lockstep?

4.7%

5.8%6%

5.5%5.1%

4.6% 4.6%

5.8%

9.3%

9.9%

6.2%

7.1%

7.7%7.4%

6.9% 6.5%6.2%

6.8%

9%

8.4%

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2%

4%

6%

8%

10% Annual Average Unemployment Rate

Alaska U.S.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor, U.S. Department of Labor, BLS.

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No. 1No. 1: Anchorage: Anchorage, Alaska, Alaska

Companies planning to hire in nextCompanies planning to hire in nextquarter:quarter: 28%28%

Best job prospects:Best job prospects: Construction, durableConstruction, durablegoods manufacturing, nondurable goodsgoods manufacturing, nondurable goodsmanufacturing, wholesale and retail trade,manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade,information, financial activities, professionalinformation, financial activities, professionaland business services, education and healthand business services, education and healthservices, leisure and hospitality, otherservices, leisure and hospitality, other

services, governmentservices, governmentPopulation:Population: 279,243279,243

Average home price in January:Average home price in January:$313,796$313,796Unemployment rate:Unemployment rate: 8.1%8.1%

The 10 best places to startThe 10 best places to start

overoverTuesday, June 23, 2009 11:51:30 AMTuesday, June 23, 2009 11:51:30 AM

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Americans tame their wanderlustAmericans tame their wanderlust

Census Bureau statistics show that fewer Americans areCensus Bureau statistics show that fewer Americans areuprooting. And when they do move, they're favoring D.C.,uprooting. And when they do move, they're favoring D.C.,AlaskaAlaska and Texas.and Texas.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writerBy Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

Last Updated: September 25, 2009: 6:21 AM ETLast Updated: September 25, 2009: 6:21 AM ET

So, where are they moving?So, where are they moving?

So, if people aren't heading for the goodSo, if people aren't heading for the goodlife in California and Florida, where arelife in California and Florida, where arethey going?they going?

D.C., Alaska and Wyoming. (Seriously.)D.C., Alaska and Wyoming. (Seriously.)

The nation's capital saw 7.6% of itsThe nation's capital saw 7.6% of itsresidents arrive in 2008; Alaska attractedresidents arrive in 2008; Alaska attracted6% more people to the Last Frontier (up a6% more people to the Last Frontier (up afull percent from 2007); and 5.2% morefull percent from 2007); and 5.2% morepeople wanted to be Wyoming cowboys.people wanted to be Wyoming cowboys.

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The Best And Worst Cities For Jobs This SpringThe Best And Worst Cities For Jobs This Spring

You may do best finding work in Alaska or Vermont this season.

HelenHelen CosterCoster, 03.10.10, 05:53 PM EST, 03.10.10, 05:53 PM EST

Cities with colleges, military bases and aCities with colleges, military bases and awide range of industries have the strongestwide range of industries have the strongestoutlook for hiring in the second quarter ofoutlook for hiring in the second quarter of2010, according to a recent survey from2010, according to a recent survey fromthe employment services firmthe employment services firm ManpowerManpower..

Anchorage, AlaskaAnchorage, Alaska, and Burlington, Vt., tie, and Burlington, Vt., tie

for the top spot, with a net of 22% offor the top spot, with a net of 22% ofsurveyed employers there expecting to hiresurveyed employers there expecting to hirebetween April and June. The Killeenbetween April and June. The Killeen--TempleTemple--Fort HoodFort Hood areas ofareas ofTexasTexas, home to, home tothe massive Fort Hood army base, comesthe massive Fort Hood army base, comesin a close second, with a net of 21% ofin a close second, with a net of 21% of

surveyed employers looking to hiresurveyed employers looking to hire

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Areas Whose Population GrewFaster Than Average

30%

15%13%

12%

10%

9%

9%

MatSu Borough

Delta Area

Washington

Fairbanks

ANCHORAGE

Alaska

U.S.

2000-2009

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Alaskas Construction $ Forecast

$4.8 $5.1$5.9

$7.2 $7.4 $7.1 $7.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

AGC forecast ($ billions)

private public

Source: UAA, ISER