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MLD-304: Science of Behavior Change

Syllabus, Fall 2013

Version: 10/4/2013

CLASS:

Monday and Wednesday

MLD 304A: 8:40-10:00 (L140)

MLD 304B: 2:40-4:00 (LAND Auditorium)

TF SESSIONS (Not mandatory, optional):

September 20, October 11, October 25, November 15

MLD 304A: Fri, 10:10-11:30, L382

MLD 304B: Fri, 11:40-1:00, L382

Faculty: Todd Rogers, Assistant Professor of Public Policy

Office: Taubman 156, Center for Public Leadership

Email: [email protected]

Office hours: Email Catherine Kearns to schedule)

Usually Tuesdays 1:10-2:10, Thursdays 11-12, with

some exceptions.

Teaching Fellow: Emily Sparer, [email protected]

Course Assistant: Ozair Ali, [email protected]

Faculty assistant: Catherine Kearns

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]




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Contents

COURSE GOALS AND PROCEDURES ............................................... 3

COURSE COMPONENTS AND GRADING ......................................... 4

OVERVIEW OF GRADE .................................................................... 4

POLICIES ............................................................................................. 5

LUNCHES ............................................................................................ 6

OUTLINE ............................................................................................. 7

READINGS .......................................................................................... 8

BOOKS ............................................................................................... 13

RECOMMENDED BOOKS FOR FURTHER READING ................... 13

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COURSE GOALS AND PROCEDURES

Over the last 30 years, behavioral scientists (psychologists, economists, political scientists, marketing

researchers, organizational behavior scholar, etc.) have gained a deeper understanding of what motivates

people, how they process information, and what non-economic features of the choice environment

influence decisions. Many of their insights challenge traditional assumptions about rationality and self-

interest. This research program (sometimes called “behavioral economics” or “behavioral science”) has

provided insights into how people’s decisions deviate from “optimal” choices as well as the

consequences of such deviations.

The Science of Behavior Change (MLD 304) has one central objective: It will improve your ability to

design policies and interventions that improve societal well-being by leveraging these insights about

human decision making (i.e., develop “nudges”). This will be accomplished by building on the toolbox

that standard economics provides for influencing behavior (namely, incentives and information) with the

insights from behavioral science.

There are three additional, though secondary, goals for this class. First, it will help you better understand

the science of how humans make judgments and decisions. We will review research on human thinking

from social psychology, cognitive psychology, political science, organizational behavior, decision

science, and economics. In the process you will also learn how randomized experiments work and why

they are critical for making inferences about causal relationships.

Second, this course aims to improve the quality of your own judgments and decisions. People are poor

intuitive statisticians, meaning that when they “just think” about situations for which some data or casual

observations exist, they tend to make serious inferential errors, in turn leading to systematically biased

decisions. We will study some errors that are particularly important for real world problems and look for

easy‐to‐implement solutions.

Third, this course aims to increase your familiarity with randomized experiments so you can be a smarter

consumer of claims that interventions cause certain outcomes. The class will be suffused with

randomized experiments and we will repeatedly discuss how confident one can be that intervention X

causes outcome Y.

Applications of the material covered in this course include policy design, healthcare, energy, politics,

education, finance, negotiation, risk management, human resource management, organization of teams,

among others.

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COURSE COMPONENTS AND GRADING

Grading will be based on your cumulative point total for the components listed below.

(1) Weekly connections (10% of final grade): Each Thursday by 6 pm ET you should email

Catherine Kearns one paragraph of “weekly connections” (~150 words). This could entail

connections between course content and the news, your life, observations, web content (with links),

or your other classes. They could also include questions about what content you do not understand.

Professor Rogers will read your weekly thoughts. They will be evaluated pass/fail. Assignments

submitted late (or not at all) will not be read and will receive a “fail” unless they include a

legitimate, written excuse (e.g., illness with doctor’s note).

(2) Op-Ed and Influence assignments (10% of final grade): There are two written assignment

towards the second half of the semester. They will be distributed in class and online. Submit your

completed homework over email to Catherine Kearns before the beginning of the class in which it is

due. You can retrieve your graded assignment in class one week after you turn it in. Assignments

submitted late (or not at all) will not be graded and will receive a zero unless they include a

legitimate, written excuse (e.g., illness with doctor’s note).

(3) Midterm examination (30% of final grade): There will be a midterm for the class.

(4) Final project (40% of final grade): Due on Thursday, December 6th at noon. This project

will apply behavioral science insights and perspective analysis to a problem of public policy or

management. You may work in groups of up to four on the project, completing one shared paper for

all members of the group. Each group will also present their projects in the second to last class.

Further details on the project will appear in a separate handout.

(5) Class attendance and participation (10% of final grade): Much of the material covered in

class will not appear in the readings. It is important, therefore, to attend and participate in each

class. I expect that everyone will have something to contribute and I expect you to come to class

prepared and engaged. I will evaluate your participation based on how well you know the material

when called upon, how thoughtful your comments are in class, and how much effort you put into

making the class work, e.g., by building on others’ comments when making a statement.

Participation points often make the difference when grades fall in a border zone. In any given

semester, about a third of you are likely to fall in a border zone on a final grade.

OVERVIEW OF GRADE

Weekly thoughts 10%

Op-Ed and Influence assignments 10%

Midterm exam 30%

Final Project 40%

Class attendance and participation 10%

TOTAL 100%

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POLICIES

Attendance and participation: On-time class attendance is essential for maximizing class-time and for

understanding this material. Late arrivals to class, or talking while the instructor or other students are

speaking, are disrespectful to the instructor and other class members. Please be punctual and do not talk

in class while others are speaking.

Religious observance: If you cannot attend a particular class because of religious reasons, please alert

instructor ahead of time so you can make alternate plans for learning the material.

Disability: The teaching team is committed to making the class accessible for all students. Any student

needing academic adjustments or accommodations because of a documented disability is requested to

present his/her letter from the Accessible Education Office (AEO) and speak with the professor as soon

as possible. Failure to do so may result in our inability to respond in a timely manner. All discussions

will remain confidential, although AEO may be consulted to discuss appropriate implementation.

Academic integrity and professionalism: Needless to say, I expect full academic integrity from students in

this course. At a minimum, this means no cheating on exams and assignments. All work handed in must

be your own. If you collaborated with others on an assignment be transparent in reporting this.

Substantial paraphrasing or borrowing of ideas without appropriate citation can be construed as

plagiarism, so be sure that you understand what constitutes a breach of academic integrity. I encourage

you to study together and to discuss your homework and projects. For more on HKS academic integrity

visit: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/degrees/registrar/procedures/integrity

Feedback from you: I enthusiastically welcome input from students. For example, if you particularly like (or

dislike) a reading, please let me know. I welcome you to meet with me in office hours or to contact me

via email. Finally, I encourage you to contribute topic-relevant comments and questions during class

time or include them in your weekly thoughts assignment.

Cell phones and other devices: Before each class session begins, please turn off ALL cell phones. Voice

recorders are only allowed with prior approval from the instructor.

Laptop policy: Before each class session begins, please turn off your computer. NO COMPUTER USE

permitted in class, unless you receive express permission from the instructor.

http://www.hks.harvard.edu/degrees/registrar/procedures/integrity

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LUNCHES

Professor Rogers will take students to lunch several times through the semester. Each lunch will be

organized around a theme.

The first lunch will be organized around healthcare (9/20@12-1).

The second will be organized around education (10/3@12-1).

The third will be organized around energy and the environment (10/17@12-1).

These dates may change, but email Catherine Kearns to reserve a spot at one of these lunches. If a given

lunch is over-subscribed we will have to use some form of a lottery system to select student participants.

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OUTLINE

CLASS # DATE TOPIC

Shopping Wednesday, September 04, 2013 Shopping

1 Friday, September 06, 2013 [No Class]2 Monday, September 09, 2013 Introduction

3 Wednesday, September 11, 2013 Standard Economics and Introduction to Experiments

3.post Friday, September 13, 2013 Complete Online Survey

4 Monday, September 16, 2013 Prospect Theory I

5 Wednesday, September 18, 2013 Prospect Theory II/Heuristics and Biases

5.TF Friday, September 20, 2013 TF Session

6 Monday, September 23, 2013 Perceptions of Ourselves and Others

7 Wednesday, September 25, 2013 Intertemporal Choice and Want/Should Conflict

8 Monday, September 30, 2013 Class Exercise (KC)

9 Wednesday, October 02, 2013 Fairness and Cooperation (with guest Professor Leslie John)

9.post Wednesday, October 02, 2013 Op-Ed available

10 Monday, October 07, 2013 Commitment Devices&Mental Accounting (with guest Professor Jeff Seglin)

11 Wednesday, October 09, 2013 Follow-through

11.TF Friday, October 11, 2013 TF Session

Columbus Day Monday, October 14, 2013 [No Class, Holiday]12 Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Cognitive Dissonance/Confirmation Bias/Escalation of Commitment & Activity

12.post Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Project Introduced

12.post Wednesday, October 16, 2013 Thaler and Sunstein @ 6pm at HKS Forum (optional talk)

13 Monday, October 21, 2013 Class Exercise (CR)

13.pre Monday, October 21, 2013 Op-Ed due before class

14 Wednesday, October 23, 2013 Bounded Awareness, Overconfidence, and Bounded Ethicality

14.post Wed,10/23,5-6:10,Belfer B-L-1, Weil (Optional) Professor Rogers-led Review

14.post Fri,10/25,11:40-1:00,L332 (Optional) Professor Rogers-led Review

14.post Project teams due by Friday October 25, noon ET

15 Monday, October 28, 2013 Midterm Exam

16 Wednesday, October 30, 2013 Libertarian Paternalism and Choice Architecture

16.post Influence exercise available

17 Monday, November 04, 2013 Influence I

17.post Project 2-page outline due

18 Wednesday, November 06, 2013 Guest: OPOWER, Marc Laitin

Veteran's Day Monday, November 11, 2013 [No Class, Holiday]19.pre Influence exercise due by November 11 at 11pm ET

19 Wednesday, November 13, 2013 Influence II

19.TF TF Session

20 Monday, November 18, 2013 Guest: evive, Prashant Srivastava

21 Wednesday, November 20, 2013 Final Project Prep Day - Office Hours

22 Monday, November 25, 2013 Guest: TBA

Thanksgiving holiday Wednesday, November 27, 2013 N/A

23 Monday, December 02, 2013 Final Project Presentations

24 Wednesday, December 04, 2013 Conclusion

24.post Final Project due Thursday, December 6 at noon

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READINGS

Will be announced at least one class in before they are due. Syllabus will be repeatedly updated.

Wednesday, September 04, 2013 Shopping

No readings.

Friday, September 06, 2013 NO CLASS

Monday, September 09, 2013 Introduction

No readings.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013 Standard Economics and Introduction to Experiments

Pre-class:

Becker, G. (1976). The Economic Approach to Human Behavior. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Introduction.

Test, Learn, Adapt. Behavioral Insights Team, United Kingdom.

Monday, September 16, 2013 Prospect Theory I

Bazerman, Max H. & Moore, Don (2008). Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (Seventh Edition).

Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Chapter 2.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013 Prospect Theory II/Heuristics and Biases

Thaler, R.H. & Sunstein, C.R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness.

Yale University Press: New Haven, CT. Chapter 11.

Camerer, C. F. (2000). “Prospect Theory in the Wild: Evidence From the Field.” In Choices, Values and

Frames (D. Kahneman, A. Tversky Eds). Russell Sage Foundation; Cambridge University Press:

Cambridge, UK: 288-301.

Monday, September 23, 2013 Perceptions of Ourselves and Others

No reading

Wednesday, September 25, 2013 Intertemporal Choice and Want/Should Conflict

Milkman, K.L., Rogers, T. & Bazerman, M.H (2008). Harnessing our inner angels and demons: What we

have learned about want/should conflicts and how that knowledge can help us reduce short-sighted

decision making. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 3(4): 324-338.

Monday, September 30, 2013 Class Exercise (KC)

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No reading

Wednesday, October 02, 2013 Fairness (with guest Prof. Leslie John)

Brafman, O. & Brafman, R. (2008). Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior. Broadway Books:

New York, NY. Chapter 6.

OPTIONAL: Bazerman and Moore (2013), Chapter 8

Monday, October 07, 2013 Commitment Devices and Mental Accounting (with guest

Prof. Jeff Seglin)

Pre-class: Leiber, R. (2010). “Your Card Has Been Declined, Just as You Wanted.” New York Times, August 13,

2010.

Post-class:

Thaler, R.H. & Sunstein, C.R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and

Happiness. Yale University Press: New Haven, CT. Chapter 2.

Rogers, T., Milkman, K., and Volpp, K. (draft). Harnessing Commitment Devices for Health Behavior

Change.

Wednesday, October 09, 2013 Follow-Through

Post-class

Rogers, T, Milkman, K., John, L. and Norton, M.I. (draft). Making the Best Laid Plans Better: How Plan-

Making Increases Follow-Through.

Gerber, A. S., Green, D. P., & Larimer, C. W. (2008). Social pressure and voter turnout: Evidence from a

large-scale field experiment. American Political Science Review, 102(1), 33.

Video: Rogers, Todd. TedX Cambridge, “Turning Mass Intention into Mass Action”

http://www.tedxcambridge.com/portfolio-item/todd-rogers

Monday, October 14, 2013 NO CLASS-Holiday

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Cognitive Dissonance/Confirmation Bias/Escalation of Commitment/Activity

Pre-class: Tavris, C. and Aronson, E. (2007). Mistakes Were Made (but not by me): Why We Justify Foolish

Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts. Harcourt Books: USA. Introduction & Chapter 1.

Post-class:



NOTE: Bazerman, & Moore 7th edition (2008). Chapter 6

http://www.tedxcambridge.com/portfolio-item/todd-rogers

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Monday, October 21, 2013 Class Exercise (CR)

No readings.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013 Bounded Awareness, Overconfidence, and Bounded Ethicality

Pre-class: Gladwell, M. (2009). “Cocksure: Banks, Battles, and the Psychology of Overconfidence.” The New

Yorker. July 27, 2009.

Post-class:

Bazerman, M., & Chugh, D. (2006). Decisions without Blinders, Harvard Business Review. January

2006.



NOTE: Bazerman and Moore 7th edition (2008): Chapter 3.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013 (5:00-6:10, Belfer B-L-1, Weil)

Optional Review Session with Professor Rogers

Friday, October 26, 2013 (11:40-1:00, L332)

Optional Review Session with Professor Rogers

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Monday, October 28, 2013 Midterm Exam

Wednesday, October 30, 2013 Libertarian Paternalism and Choice Architecture

Pre-class: Thaler, R.H. & Sunstein, C.R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and

Happiness. Yale University Press: New Haven, CT. Introduction, Chapter 4, Chapter 5, Chapter

17

Post-class:

Wansink, B., & Van Ittersum, K. (2007). Portion size me: downsizing our consumption norms. Journal of

the American Dietetic Association, 107(7), 1103-1106.

Ferguson, A. (2010). "Nudge Nudge, Wink Wink." Weekly Standard. April 19, 2010.

Monday, November 04, 2013 Influence I

Pre-class: Cialdini, R. (2008). Influence: Science and Practice. 5th ed. Prentice Hall. Chapters 1, 4

Wednesday, November 06, 2013 Guest: OPOWER, Marc Laitin

Pre-class: Assigned in previous class

Monday, November 11, 2013 NO CLASS-Holiday

Wednesday, November 13, 2013 Influence II

Post-class: Cialdini, R. (2008). Influence: Science and Practice. 5th ed. Prentice Hall. Chapters 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

Monday, November 18, 2013 Guest: evive, Prashant Srivastava


Wednesday, November 20, 2013 Final Project Prep Day - Office Hours

No readings.

Monday, November 25, 2013 Guest: TBA


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Monday, December 02, 2013 Final Project Presentations

No readings.

Wednesday, December 04, 2013 Conclusion

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BOOKS

The following books are available for purchase online and at the COOP. Several copies will also be kept on

reserve at the HKS library.

Bazerman, M. H. & Moore, D. (2013). Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (Eighth Edition).

Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Cialdini, R. (2008). Influence: Science and Practice. 5th ed. Prentice Hall.

Thaler, R.H. & Sunstein, C.R. (2009). Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and

Happiness. Yale University Press: New Haven, CT.

The rest of the required readings appear on-line on Course Pages.

RECOMMENDED BOOKS FOR FURTHER READING

Bazerman, M., Baron, J., & Shonk, K. (2001). “You can’t enlarge the pie”:

Six barriers to effective government. New York: Basic Books.

Fiske, S. T., Gilbert, D. T., & Lindzey, G. (Eds.). (2010). Handbook of social

psychology. Wiley. com.

Gino, F. (2013). Sidetracked: Why our decisions get derailed, and how we can

stick to the plan. Harvard Business Press.

Heath, C., & Heath, D. (2007). Made to stick: Why some ideas survive and others

die. Random House Digital, Inc..

Issenberg, S. (2012). The victory lab: The secret science of winning campaigns.

Random House Digital, Inc..

Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.). (2008). Blackwell handbook of judgment and

decision making. Wiley. com.

Oppenheimer, D. M., & Olivola, C. Y. (Eds.). (2010). The science of giving:

Experimental approaches to the study of charity. Routledge.

Dunn, E., & Norton, M. (2013). Happy Money: The Science of Smarter Spending.

SimonandSchuster. com.

Ross, L., & Nisbett, R. E. (1991). The person and the situation: Perspectives of

social psychology. Mcgraw-Hill Book Company.

Shafir, E. (Ed.). (2012). Behavioral Foundations of Public Policy. Princeton

University Press.

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SHONK, K. A. (2002). " You Can't Enlarge the Pie": Six Barriers to Effective

Government. Basic Books.

Sunstein, C. R. (2013). Simpler: The Future of Government. SimonandSchuster.

com.

Thaler, R. (2012). The winner's curse: Paradoxes and anomalies of economic life.

SimonandSchuster. com.

Vicente, K. J. (2004). The human factor: Revolutionizing the way people live with

technology. Psychology Press.

Wansink, B. (2007). Mindless eating: Why we eat more than we think. Random

House Digital, Inc..

fri, 10:10-11:30, l382 fri, 11:40-1:00, l382 · email: [email protected] ... course...

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