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December 5, 2013
Texas Freight Advisory Committee
FREIGHT MOVEMENT IN TEXAS:TRENDS AND ISSUES
TEXAS FREIGHT TRENDS & ISSUES 1
FREIGHT MOVEMENT IN TEXAS: TRENDS AND ISSUES
IntroductionThis white paper produced for the Texas Freight Mobility Plan (TFMP) explores an array of trends and issues likely to impact freight movements in Texas today and in the future. The issues are organized into five areas based on previous research about key forces driving changes to freight transportation, and issues identified through the TxDOT Statewide Long Range Plan Update.1, 2 The five areas to be discussed are:
Economics Demographics Infrastructure Preservation Environment Technology
It is anticipated that the trends and issues identified in this report will be discussed, scrutinized and weighed-in upon by members of the Texas Freight Advisory Committee. The goal of this discussion is to achieve some level of consen-sus about which trends and issues are likely to have the highest impacts on freight movements in Texas over the next several decades.
Trends and Issue Impacts on Freight Transport: Effects on FlowsIn early 2013, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) published a report prepared by a team of researchers from MIT who explored new ways to examine long term planning horizons for freight transportation. The research
1ICF International NCHRP Project 20-80 (2): Long Range Strategic Issues Facing the Transportation Industry: Final Research Plan Framework October 2008.2Texas Statewide Long Range Transportation Plan 2035: http://www.txdot.gov/inside-txdot/division/transportation-planning/statewide-2035/report.html
E.ImpactonValueDensity Changes to the characteristics of the product(s) being shipped. Value density is a primary criterion for mode choice and network design.
D.ImpactsonFlowVolume Increases or decreases in the amount of product movement by tonnage or value.
C.ImpactsonRouting Changes affecting the path or route shipments take in moving from the point of origin to the consumer.
B.ImpactonFlowDestinationsShifts in the locations for final product demands resulting from increases in population, consumer tastes, economic growth / decline and changes in wealth distribution.
A.ImpactonFlowOrigins Changes to product sourcing, changes to the availability of raw materials and labor market competition. E.g. emerging economies.
Source: NCHRP 750, adapted by Olsson Associates
TEXAS FREIGHT TRENDS & ISSUES 2
included workshops with thought leaders and industry experts to examine forces affecting freight transportation 30 to 40 years into the future. The researchers concluded: There are an unlimited number of potential events, trends, or occurrences that can happen in the future. It is almost impossible to identify, much less plan for, all of these potential events. 3 To deal with this uncertainty the researchers translated events effecting freight into a finite set of outcome types called Flow Impacts, detailed in Figure 1.
EconomicsTexas is a leader in many measures of economic competitiveness. Its Gross State Product (GSP) is approximately $1.4 trillion, second in the U.S. behind California. There are a myriad of factors that can be used to measure economic competitiveness, but generally, Texas natural advantages like large size and population, central location, Gulf coastline, and energy resources, combined with its massive infrastructure, low taxation and cost of doing business, make it a leader. According to Forbes list of Best States for Business, Texas ranks first in Economic Climate, second in Growth Prospects and seventh overall.4 Also, 52 Fortune 500 companies and 116 of the largest 1,000 public and private companies in the country are headquartered in Texas, including AT&T, ExxonMobil, and Dell.5
NAFTA TradeMuch of the U.S. trade with Canada and Mexico can be attributed to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). This agreement came into force in 1995 and removed trade barriers between Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Mexico is Texas largest trading partner, making up 35.7% of Texas total exports; Canada is second at 9% and China is third at about 3.8%. From 2011 to 2012, trade with Mexico from Texas increased 8.5% while trade with Canada increased 7.8%. In contrast, exports to China experienced a decline of -5.9% over the same period.6 The top commodities being exported to Mexico from Texas are Computer and Electronic Products (23.4%), Petroleum and Coal Products (15.3%), Transportation Equipment (12%) and Chemicals (11.3%).7 Maintaining and growing this trade relationship with Mexico relies on maintaining adequate capacity and increasing efficiency of the Texas transportation network, especially near border crossings.
Emerging MarketsAs global trade evolves, U.S. companies are expanding into emerging markets across the world where their goods and services can be sold, accelerating the growth of their company or industry and expanding the reach of U.S. exports. The BRIC countriesBrazil, Russia, India, and China-- have been the cornerstone markets of increased global trade. Africa is also identified as an emerging market, but their impact is often measured on a continent scale instead of individual countries. As Figure 2 shows, significant growth has occurred in exports from Texas to BRIC countries and the top 5 African nations since 2005.8
There is no universal definition of an emerging market, but generally, the most widely used factors include GDP growth rate and per capita GDP growth rate. By this metric Chinas GDP growth rate of nearly 8% in 2013 (compared
China Brazil India Russia Top 5 African Nations
3NCHRP 20-38, Driving Forces Influencing Future Freight Flows, April 2010. Available at: http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/nchrp_w195.pdf4Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/best-states-for-business/5Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/best-states-for-business/ 6International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. Trade Stats Express. Accessed 2013. http://tse.export.gov/TSE/.7Ibid.8International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. Trade Stats Express. Accessed 2013. http://tse.export.gov/TSE/
TEXAS FREIGHT TRENDS & ISSUES 3
to about 3% for the U.S.) characterize it as a trade market that continues to emerge, despite its size and projections of when it will overtake the U.S. as the worlds largest economy.9 As China grows, however, its lack of domestic oil resources will require it to increase imports. Texas is a potential trade partner, but currently the majority of Chinas oil imports come from the Middle East.10
To support the growth in exports the U.S. Department of Transportation is investing in freight transportation infrastructure through the TIGER (Transportation Investments Generating Economic Recovery) program. So far, $354 million in TIGER grants has gone to 25 U.S. port projects from coast to coast.11 One freight project in Texas received a TIGER grant in 2013: the Port of Houston Authority, which won $10 million towards the construction of the Bayport Container Terminal.12
The Panama CanalThe Panama Canal, completed in 1914, created one of the most important trade routes in the world, linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. After nearly a century the canal is undergoing a $5.25 billion dollar expansion to accommodate more and larger ships. When the expanded canal opens in 2015, the new locks will allow for deeper, longer and wider New Panamax vessels, essentially doubling existing throughput capacity (Figure 3). The expansion will reduce Canal delays, and potentially reduce shipper costs.
The expansion of the canal has spurred research interest across the country. In Texas, the Panama Canal Working Group studied the expansions impact on the state and had three principal findings in its 2012 final document:13
1. The Panama Canal expan-sion...represents opportunities to expand Texas position as a global gateway for the nation. By providing a low-cost, reliable, safe, secure, multimodal, and environmentally sustainable supply chain, the state can increase its global trade, create new jobs, and expand the economy of the state and nation.
2. As the leading goods export state in the country, Texas is well positioned to take advantage of the Panama Canal expansion and other opportunities to increase the export of dry bulk, liquid bulk, general and break bulk cargo, and containers to existing and new markets. Commodities in these general categories include agricultural pro-duce, coal, value added manufacturing products, petrochemical and chemical products, military cargo, paper products, consumer goods, and other products. The emerging LNG export market resulting from energy develop-ments in the state represents a major opportunity.
9Trading Economics. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual10CBC News. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/china-overtakes-u-s-to-become-world-s-biggest-oil-importer-1.195851111Fact Sheet: National Export Initiative. U.S. Department of Commerce. 19 February 2012. http://www.commerce.gov/news/fact-sheets/2013/02/19/fact-sheet-national-export-initiative.12USDOT. http://www.dot.gov/tiger13Report from the Panama Canal Stakeholder Working Group, November 2012
EarlyContainerShip(1956-)500 - 800 TEU, 137x17x9m
TEU: twenty-foot equivalent units. Length