free commodity trading tips 27-12-2010
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Daily Commodity Market Update as on Monday, December 27, 2010
PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX
NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG
GOLD 20469 20494 20436 20479 0.21
SILVER 44375 44435 44354 44420 -0.02
GOLD 1384.25 1384.10 1371.85 1383.35 -0.07
SILVER 29.23 29.24 28.28 29.15 -0.21
PLATINUM 1723.00 1730.49 1699.50 1730.49 1.08
Gold prices edged higher supported by the euro's
recovery from a three-week low versus the dollar, and as
a further ratings downgrade stoked concerns over euro
zone debt. Silver ended flat due to less liquidity in the
market and minimal physical buying ahead of the year
end.
SPOT $
MCX
NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG
CRUDE 4145 4164 4145 4161 0.43
N.GAS 184.10 184.10 183.00 183.60 -0.60
ENERGY COMPLEX
Crude oil ended higher supported by cold weather across
the globe, appetite for risk assets and signals from OPEC
it would not arrest the rally. Natural gas declined on
forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather that may curb
MCX
CRUDE 90.61 91.63 90.33 91.51 0.99
NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG
demand for the heating fuel.
BASEMETAL COMPLEX
MCX
. . . . .
ZINC 103.75 104.40 103.50 103.90 0.34
NICKEL 1077.90 1088.80 1077.90 1083.20 0.58
LEAD 110.50 111.20 110.15 110.70 0.45
ALUMINIUM 110.1 110.95 109 109.45 -0.37
COPPER 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3000
ZINC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -200
Base metal ended firm in the range bound trade on Friday
as trading was erratic ahead of the Christmas break.
LME STOCKLM E
COPPER
ZINC
370725
698625. . . . .
NICKEL 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 570
LEAD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -25
ALUMINIUM 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -6225
SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
20062.57 6013.3 2230.27 1256.77 7921.92 11573.49 10364.63 2854.91 2031.23 22833.8 80.47
NICKEL
LEAD
ALUMINIUM
136878
207850
4275275
GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE
-0.06 0.03 0 -0.16 -0.12 0.12 0.83 0.7 0.08 -0.3 -0.15
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OPEN
20469
HIGH
CLOSE
20479
% CNG
0.21
VOLUME
20494
LOW
20436
FUTUR
E
Gold prices edged higher supported by the euro's recovery from a three-week low versus the
42
RE CNG
5853
OI
18115
INTRADAY LEVELS
X
GOLD
P.P. 20470
SUP 1 RES 1
20445 20503
SUP 2 RES 2
20412 20528
SUP 3 RES 3
20387 20561
o ar, an as a ur er ra ngs owngra e s o e concerns over euro zone e . o yp ca ycomes under pressure from a softer euro and consequently stronger dollar, but its usual close
inverse relationship with the U.S. currency has weakened this year as both assets have
benefited from the euro zone debt crisis. Gold opened the day at 20469, before fund selling
after mixed economic data took the metal to an intraday low of 20436. Sporadic physical
interest took us back to opening levels but volumes soon faded and range trading
commenced. Quiet trade for the remainder of the session took us to a close of 20479. Now
support for the gold MCX is seen at 20445 and below could see a test of 20412. Resistance is
MC
44354
OPEN
44375
HIGH
44435LOW
UR
E
-0.02
VOLUME
6925
OI
16048
RE CNG
44420
% CNG
VERFU
P.P. 44403
SUP 1 RES 1
44371 44452
SUP 2 RES 2
INTRADAY LEVELSSilver ended flat due to less liquidity in the market and minimal physical buying ahead of the
year end. The prices to remain in a range though the overall trend will be positive on
weakness in dollar and in the course of persistent European debt crisis and Korean crisis.
Silver opened the day at 44375 and eventually trading down to a low of 44354. The metal
later climbed reaching an intraday high of 44435 on short covering. Range trading for the
-10
MCXS
I
44322 44484
SUP 3 RES 3
44290 44533
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rema n er o e sess on oo us o a c ose o . ow ec n ca y mar e s ra ng n e
range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 63.46, where as 50DMA is at 41726 and silver
is trading above the same and getting support at 44371 and below could see a test of 44322
level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 44452, a move above could see prices testing
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4145
HIGH
OPEN
4161
% CNG
0.43
VOLUME
4164
LOW
4145CLOSE
FUTURE
21428
RE CNG
18
INTRADAY LEVELS
19493
OI
CRUDE
P.P. 4157
SUP 1 RES 1
4149 4168
SUP 2 RES 2
4138 4176
SUP 3 RES 3
4130 4187
Crude oil ended higher supported by cold weather across the globe, appetite for risk assets
and signals from OPEC it would not arrest the rally. OPEC's most influential oil minister, Saudi
Arabia's Ali al-Naimi, said he was still happy with an oil price of $70-$80 per barrel and there
was no need for an extra OPEC meeting before the next scheduled one in June. Now support
for the crude is seen at 4149 and below could see a test of 4138. Resistance is now likely to
be seen at 4168, a move above could see prices testing 4176.
MC
HIGH
428.10LOW
425.75TUR
EOPEN
425.90
RE CNG
% CNG
0.54
VOLUME
27790
OI
36727
427.90
PPERFU
P.P. 427.3
SUP 1 RES 1
426.4 428.8
SUP 2 RES 2
2.3
INTRADAY LEVELSCopper rose underpinned by expectations of restocking next year by top consumer China,
however trade was erratic ahead of the Christmas break. The latest stocks data showed that
copper stocks in Shanghai fell, but in LME sheds rose for a ninth session, having since mid-
month climbed some five percent as consumers shed inventory to cut costs over the break.
But at 370,725 tonnes, total stockpiles remain still down by one third from cycle highs ofMCXC
O
424.9 429.6
SUP 3 RES 3
424.1 431.1
555,075 tonnes seen in Fe ruary. Copper as touc e a ow o Rs 425.75 a g a ter opening
at Rs 425.9, and last traded at Rs427.9.For today market is looking for the support at 426.4,
a break below could see a test of 424.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at
428.8, a move above could see prices testing 429.6.
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103.75
HIGH
OPEN
103.9
% CNG
0.34
VOLUME
104.40
LOW
103.5CLOSE
UTUR
E
7842
RE CNG
0.35
INTRADAY LEVELS
8324
OI
X
ZINC
P.P. 103.9
SUP 1 RES 1
103.5 104.4
SUP 2 RES 2
103.0 104.8
SUP 3 RES 3
102.6 105.3
nc yes er ay ra e w e pos ve no e an se e . up a . . ome suppor
had been seen from the LME stock also which came down by -50mt, the total stock at LME is
now at 698825mt. In yesterday's trading session zinc has touched the low of 103.5 after
opening at 103.75, and finally settled at 103.9. For today's session market is looking to take
support at 103.5, a break below could see a test of 103 and where as resistance is now likely
to be seen at 104.4, a move above could see prices testing 104.8. Spread between zinc DEC &
JAN contracts yesterday ended at 1.25. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.3.
MC
HIGH
1088.80LOW
1077.90UR
EOPEN
1077.90
RE CNG
% CNG
0.58
VOLUME
19095
OI
10044
1083.20
KELFU
P.P. 1083.3
SUP 1 RES 1
1077.8 1088.7
SUP 2 RES 2
6.3
INTRADAY LEVELSNickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.59% up at 1083.2 supported by
strong demand at the domestic spot market and tracking firm cues from London Metal
Exchange. Some pressure had been seen from the LME stock also which came up by 1026mt,
the total stock at LME is now at 136308mt. In yesterday's trading session nickel has touched
the low of 1077.9 after opening at 1077.9, and finally settled at 1083.2. For today's sessionMCXN
I
1072.4 1094.2
SUP 3 RES 3
1066.9 1099.6
mar et is oo ing to ta e support at 1077.8, a rea e ow cou see a test o 1072.4 an
where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1088.7, a move above could see prices testing
1094.2. Spread between nickel DEC & JAN contracts yesterday ended at 11.10. Spread
yesterday traded in the range of 10.30 - 12.1.
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OPEN
110.1
HIGHR
VOLUME
LOW
109CLOSE
109.45
% CNG
-0.37
110.95
UMFU
T
INTRADAY LEVELSChina may limit power supply to energy-intensive industries over winter session due to tight
6783
OI
2134
RE CNG
-0.4
LUMINI
P.P. 109.8
SUP 1 RES 1
108.7 110.6
SUP 2 RES 2
107.9 111.8
SUP 3 RES 3
106.7 112.6
supp y o coa , resu ng n ur ng ou pu o some me a s nc u ng a um num. ere ore,
aluminum prices may gain over the next three or four months on the back of shortage of
supply in China. Aluminium yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.36% down
at 109.45. Some pressure had been seen from the LME stock also which came up by 5775mt,
the total stock at LME is now at 4281500mt. In yesterday's trading session aluminium has
touched the low of 109 after opening at 110.1, and finally settled at 109.45. For today's
session market is looking to take support at 108.7, a break below could see a test of 107.9
and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 110.6, a move above could see prices
MCX
LOW
183.00TURE
OPEN
184.10
HIGH
184.10
15793
RE CNG
183.60
-0.60
VOLUME
6047
OI
.GAS
F % CNG
P.P. 183.6
SUP 1 RES 1
183.0 184.1
SUP 2 RES 2
-1.1
INTRADAY LEVELSNatural gas declined on forecasts of warmer-than-normal weather that may curb demand for
the heating fuel. Gas inventories declined by 184 billion cubic feet in the week ended Dec. 17
to 3.368 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department. Temperatures in the northern Midwest
may average below- normal in January, February and March, according to the National
Weather Service. Gas inventories have been declining since Nov. 19 as cold weather sparks
-
CXNA
182.5 184.7
SUP 3 RES 3
181.9 185.2
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eman or e ea ng ue . a ura as yes er ay we ave seen a mar e as move -
0.6%. Market has opened at 184.1 & made a low of 183 versus the day high of 184.1. The
total volume for the day was at 6047 lots and the open interest was at 15793.Now support for
the Natural Gas is seen at 183 and below could see a test of 182.5. Resistance is now likely to
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DAILY SPREAD I N GOLD - MCX
ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE
DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX
MONTH RATE FEB APRIL JUNE MONTH RATE MARCH MAY JULY
FEB 20479 183 343 MARCH 44420 193 289
APRIL 20662 160 MAY 44613 96JUNE 20822 JULY 44709
Spread between Silver MAR & MAY contracts yesterday
ended at 193, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a negative node and settled -
0.02% down. Spread yesterday traded in the range of
182 - 195.
Spread between Gold FEB & APR contracts yesterday
ended at 183, we have seen yesterday that the gold
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.21%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 174 - 190.
MONTH RATE JAN FEB MARCH MONTH RATE FEB APRIL
JAN 4161 56 99 FEB 427.90 2.20
FEB 4217 43 APRIL 430.10
MARCH 4260
DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX
DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX
ARKET
DAILY SPREAD IN ZINC - MCX
Sprea etween cru e JAN & FEB contracts yester ay
ended at 56, we have seen yesterday that the crude
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.43%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 55 - 60.
Sprea etween copper FEB & APR contracts yester ay
ended at 2.2, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled
0.54% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 2.2 -
2.6.
DAILY SP READ IN NICKEL - MCX
MONTH MONTH
DEC 103.90 1.25 DEC 1083 11.10
JAN 105.15 JAN 1094
PREAD
Spread between zinc DEC & JAN contracts yesterday
ended at 1.25, we have seen yesterday that the zincmarket had traded with a positive node and settled 0.34%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1 - 1.3.
Spread between nickel DEC & JAN contracts yesterday
ended at 11.10, we have seen yesterday that the nickelmarket had traded with a positive node and settled
0.58% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 10.30
- 12.1.
MONTH RATE DEC JAN MONTH RATE JAN FEB
DEC 183.60 5.30 JAN 1133.90 8.40
JAN 188.90 FEB 1142.30
DAILY SP READ IN MENTHOL - MCX
S read between natural as DEC & JAN contracts S read between menthol oil JAN & FEB contracts
DAILY SPREAD IN N AT. GAS - MCX
yesterday ended at 5.30, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a negative node and
settled -0.6% down. Spread yesterday traded in the rangeof 4.3 - 5.7.
yesterday ended at 8.40, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
and settled -0.11% down. Spread yesterday traded in therange of 2 to 8.4.
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DAY TIME CURRENCY Forecast Prev ious
0 0 0 0
DATA
NO DATAL
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0
0
0
Mo n
0
0
0
0
0
ONOMI
C
DATA
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
EC 0
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E
,due to rise in global demand, a trade ministry official said. Total revenues from spices exports are seen rising 15 per
cent from Rs 5,560 crore the previous year, said the official, who handles spices exports. There is good demand for
our value-added spice products from countries like the US, Malaysia, Singapore, Dubai and Germany, which is
pushing overall exports higher, he said. He expressed concerns there could be a drop a chilli output and its quality
due to unexpected rains in main growing states such as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. According to
industry estimates, Andhra Pradeshs chilli output is seen falling 25 per cent on year this crop year (July-June). The
countrys chilli exports in April-October rose 26 per cent from a year ago to 141,000 tonnes and generated revenues
of Rs 865 crore, Spices Board data showed. Asked about the drop in exports of turmeric and pepper, the official said.
CA
N
U
Despite the untimely rains last month delaying sowing in Gujarat, the area under wheat sowing in the state has seenan increase of 1.74 lakh hectares over the last year. Many farmers are said to have chosen wheat over jeera in the
wake of erratic weather in November as jeera crop is quite sensitive to vagaries of the weather. As per the data
provided by the state agriculture department, the area under wheat cultivation so far is 9,75,200 hectares as against
WSYO
8,01,400 hectares in the corresponding period last year, which shows a rise of 1.74 lakh hectares. Good monsoon
and sufficient availability of water has helped increase the sowing of wheat in Gujarat. This will translate into a good
wheat production in the state, said B R Shah, agriculture director, department of agriculture, government of Gujarat.
Amid growing fear among farmers that taking up jeera crop could prove risky after unseasonal rain in November,
farming community decided to opt for wheat leading to an increasing in area under wheat crop. The farmers in
Jamnagar and Surendranagar districts, who saw their cotton getting damaged due to untimely rains, have also
turned to wheat.
N
Indian cash rates continued to trade firm on Friday tracking steady demand from cash-strapped banks but
expectations of some government spending and central bank's repo auction provided some support. Cash rates have
been in a tight range for sometime now and is likely to be like this till the time liquidity comes back into the system.
Government spending may happen, but such huge spending so as to ease cash rates looks unlikely. Reserve Bank of
India deputy governor Subir Gokarn said that while call rates were higher than the central bank's interest rate
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corridor, they were stable, indicating there was no panic over liquidity.
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