free cash flow

64
Free Cash Flow Valuation

Upload: yatili

Post on 25-Dec-2014

2.342 views

Category:

Economy & Finance


4 download

DESCRIPTION

 

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Free Cash Flow

Free Cash FlowValuation

Page 2: Free Cash Flow

Definition

Page 3: Free Cash Flow

Bond

Equity

Alternative Investments

Page 4: Free Cash Flow

Bond

Equity

Alternative Investments

Page 5: Free Cash Flow

EquityValuation

Page 6: Free Cash Flow

RelativeAbsolute

EquityValuation

Page 7: Free Cash Flow

EquityValuation

RelativeAbsolute

DiscountedCashFlow

Page 8: Free Cash Flow

Relative

EquityValuation

Absolute

1. DDM2. FCF3. Residual

Income

Page 9: Free Cash Flow

EquityValuation

1. DDM2. FCF3. Residual

Income

Page 10: Free Cash Flow

FreeCash Flow

Page 11: Free Cash Flow

FreeCash Flow

Page 12: Free Cash Flow

FreeCash Flow

to

Distribute

Page 13: Free Cash Flow

Freeto

DistributeTo Whom?

Page 14: Free Cash Flow

Capital Providers

Page 15: Free Cash Flow

Capital Providers

LendersEquity InvestorsPreferred Shareholders

Page 16: Free Cash Flow

Capital Providers

LendersEquity InvestorsPreferred Shareholders

Page 17: Free Cash Flow

Capital Providers

LendersEquity InvestorsPreferred Shareholders

Page 18: Free Cash Flow

FCFF

FCFE

Page 19: Free Cash Flow

FCFFFirmFCF to the

FCFE

Page 20: Free Cash Flow

FCFFFirmFCF to the

FCFEEquityFCF to

Page 21: Free Cash Flow

$4,000,000

Page 22: Free Cash Flow
Page 23: Free Cash Flow

Calculation

Page 24: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.Fixed Capital Inv.After-tax interest

Page 25: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.Fixed Capital Inv.After-tax interest

Page 26: Free Cash Flow

NCC ≈ D&A

Page 27: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.Fixed Capital Inv.After-tax interest

Page 28: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.

WCInv=(CA1-CA0)-(CL1-CL0)Current Asset Current Liability

Page 29: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.

WCInv=(CA1-CA0)-(CL1-CL0)Current Asset Current Liability

Cash and Cash Equivalents

Page 30: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.

WCInv=(CA1-CA0)-(CL1-CL0)Current Asset Current Liability

Cash and Cash Equivalents

Page 31: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.Fixed Capital Inv.After-tax interest

Page 32: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

Net IncomeNon-Cash ChargeWorking Capital Inv.Fixed Capital Inv.After-tax interest

Page 33: Free Cash Flow

Interest rate  10%

Tax rate  25%

Total capital  400  400  400 

Debt  ‐ 200  400 

Equity  400  200  ‐

EBIT  250  250  250 

Interest ‐ 20  40 

EBT  250  230  210 

T  63  58  53 

NI  188  173  158 

Page 34: Free Cash Flow

FCFF= FCFE=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

NI+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Net Borrowing

Page 35: Free Cash Flow

FCFF= FCFE=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

NI+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Net Borrowing

Page 36: Free Cash Flow

Interest rate 10% WCInv 0Tax rate 25% FCInv 0Total capital  400 

CapitalStructureDebt  ‐

Equity  400 

EBITDA  300 

IncomeStatement

D&A  50 

EBIT  250 

Interest ‐

EBT  250 

T  63 

NI  188 

FCFF  238 FCF

FCFE  238 

Page 37: Free Cash Flow

Investment Return=238/400=59.5%

Page 38: Free Cash Flow

Interest rate  10% WCInv 0Tax rate  25% FCInv 0Total capital  400  400  400 

Debt  ‐ 200  400 Equity  400  200  ‐

EBITDA  300  300  300 D&A  50  50  50 

EBIT  250  250  250 Interest ‐ 20  40 

EBT  250  230  210 T  63  58  53 

NI  188  173  158 FCFF  238  238  238 FCFE  238  223  208 

Page 39: Free Cash Flow

FCFF Ignores Capital Structure

Page 40: Free Cash Flow

Capital StructureMatters to

FCFE

Page 41: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

CFO

US GAAP

Page 42: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

CFO

EBIT

Page 43: Free Cash Flow

FCFF=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Int*(1-t)

CFO

EBITEBITDA

Page 44: Free Cash Flow

FCFE=NI

+ NCC- WCInv- FCInv+ Net Borrowing

CFO

EBITEBITDA

Page 45: Free Cash Flow

Valuation

Page 46: Free Cash Flow

Sell

Page 47: Free Cash Flow
Page 48: Free Cash Flow

DebtofMVValueFirmvalueEquity

-=

Page 49: Free Cash Flow

( )∑∞

1= +1=

tt

t

WACCFCFF

valueFirm

∑∞

1= )+1(=

tt

t

rFCFE

valueEquity

Page 50: Free Cash Flow

rEquityMVDebtMV

EqutiyMV

TrEquityMVDebtMV

DebtMVWACC

d

)(+)()(

+

)-1(×)(+)(

)(=

Page 51: Free Cash Flow

gWACCgFCFF

gWACCFCFF

valueFirm

-)+1(

=

-=

0

1

grgFCFE

grFCFE

valueEquity

-)+1(

=

-=

0

1

Page 52: Free Cash Flow

Interest rate 10% WCINv 0

Tax rate 25% FCInv 0

Re 15%

g 5%

Total capital 400 400 400

Debt - 200 400

Equity 400 200 -

FCFF 238 238 238

FCFE 238 223 208

WACC 15% 11% 8%

Firm value 2,494 3,990 9,975

Equity value 2,494 2,336 2,179

Page 53: Free Cash Flow

Investment Return=(2494-400)/400=523.5%

Page 54: Free Cash Flow

nn

n

tt

t

WACCgWACCFCFF

WACCFCFF

valueFirm

)+1(1

)-(+

)+1(=

1+

1=∑

nn

n

tt

t

rgrFCFE

rFCFE

valueEquity

)+1(1

-+

)+1(=

1+

1=∑

Two-Stage

Page 55: Free Cash Flow

borrowingNetWCInv

DepFCInvNI

FCFE

+-

)-(-=

))(-1(-)-)(-1(-

=

WCInvDebtRatioDepFCInvDebtRatio

NIFCFE

Α=∆

-CInvSales

DepFΒ=

∆SalesWCInv

Forecasting

Page 56: Free Cash Flow

FCF VS.

DDM

Page 57: Free Cash Flow

YOU=Owner

Page 58: Free Cash Flow

Recap

Page 59: Free Cash Flow

1. FCF

Page 60: Free Cash Flow

2. FCFF

Page 61: Free Cash Flow

3. FCFE

Page 62: Free Cash Flow

Remember

Page 63: Free Cash Flow

Solve

Page 64: Free Cash Flow

Thank You!

[email protected]