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Fraser Valley Housing Market Update

Christina Butchart, BC Regional Economist, CMHC

June 21, 2017

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Key trends influencing the market:

• Relatively low mortgage interest rates

• Low Canadian dollar

• Strong labour market gains

• Population growth

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Resale market

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Pace of resales down from peak levels

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Greater Vancouver Fraser Valley

10-Year Average 14,904

Source: REBGV, FVREB, adjusted by CMHC, May 2017 last data point

10-Year Average 32,957

MLS® Sales, seasonally-adjusted annual rate, 3M MA

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Stock of active MLS ® listings remains low

Source: REBGV, FVREB, May 2017 last data point

Active Listings

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Greater Vancouver Fraser Valley

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Resale market has shifted

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Greater Vancouver Fraser Valley

Balanced

Sellers’

Buyers’

MLS® Sales to Active Listings Ratio (6 month moving average)

Source: CREA, MLS ® is a registered trade mark of the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), May 2017 last data point

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Sales-to-active ratio (3 month moving average)

Greater Vancouver Fraser Valley Surrey - DetachedSurrey - Condo Langley - Detached Langley - CondoAbbotsford - Detached Abbotsford - Condo

Market segments have diverged

Balanced

Source: CREA, May 2017 last data point

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Submarkets performed very strongly in 2016

Top performing properties in 2016

Squamish (Attached) 66%

Abbotsford (Apartment) 39%

Mission (Attached) 39%

North Delta (Attached) 37%

Abbotsford (Attached) 35%

Lowest performing properties in 2016

Vancouver West (Apartment) 13%

Vancouver East (Attached) 12%

Ladner (Apartment) 11%

Burnaby East (Apartment) 8%

Port Moody (Attached) 1%Source: CREA, based on MLS® HPI Benchmark price growth

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Price movements vary by market

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Detached Townhouse Apartment

Average MLS ® Price (SA)

Source: REBGV, FVREB, seasonally adjusted by CMHC

$1.7M

$578K

$796K

Greater Vancouver ----- Fraser Valley

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION Sources: FVREB, GVREB

Last data point: May 2017

Price Acceleration is stronger in the Fraser Valley than in Greater Vancouver.

West Van

+0.2%North Van

+8.4%

Tri-Cities

+8.8 – 12.9% Ridge Meadows

+8.4 – 14.2%Vancouver

East

+10.3%

Richmond

+7.7%

Burnaby

+5.7- 14.7%

S. Surrey / W.

Rock

+11.1%

Langley

+16.6%

Delta

+2.9%

Greater Vancouver

+8.8%

Surrey

+16.1%

New West

+16.1%

Fraser Valley

+14.7%

Vancouver

West

+6.1%

YoY% change to MLS® Home Price Index – Composite, May 2017

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New construction

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Rental construction has been strong

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Purpose-Built Apts Secondary Suites Laneway / Coach Houses

Market Rental Starts, Vancouver CMA

Source: CMHC Starts and Completions survey

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Housing starts are easing this year

Housing starts

Source: CMHC

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Abbotsford-Mission Vancouver

YTD (SAAR)

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Multi-family inventory remains low

Completed & Unabsorbed (Unsold) Units (Vancouver CMA)

Source: CMHC

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

House Town House Apartment

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Apartment inventory close to average level in Abb-Mission

Completed & Unabsorbed (Unsold) Units (Abbotsford-Mission CMA)

Source: CMHC

0

50

100

150

200

250

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

House Town House Apartment

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Two-speed market as lower priced homes still in high

demand

Under construction is elevated but inventory remains

low

Employment gains, migration and low supply on resale

market are putting pressure on rental market

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