frankel crime trends michigan

Paul Frankel, Ph.D.

Michigan Crime Trends 1

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Paul Frankel, Ph.D.

Current Crime Trends in Michigan

May 2011

Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

719/237-0338

Current Crime Trends in Michigan:

Summary Analysis and Policy Recommendations

There are many forms of quantitative and qualitative data that can be assessed and presented to

analyze trends in Michigan crime data over the last five to ten years. Data can be both

quantitative such as the number of incidents of a given crime annually or the rate of victimization

per State population, or qualitative reflecting narrative reports from law enforcement personnel

or other affiliated staff such as judges, lawyers, victims, and the general public. Moreover, the

method of data collection can vary ranging from automated information systems with custom

user interfaces, to paper-and-pencil worksheets or spreadsheets. One further caveat is that data

can be presented either in an aggregate form such as that presented by the FBI’s Uniform Crime

Reporting (UCR) summary data, or in a much more detailed case-level or incident-based analysis

as provided the last two years by the Michigan Incident Crime Reporting System (MICR).1

With respect to the quality and comprehensiveness of Michigan crime data, the level of analysis

is at times ambiguous. For example, some aggregate reports may present crime incidents,

arrests, victims, percent cleared cases, or some combination. It is important to note that every

effort has been made to present annual incidents of different categories of crimes, with a

particular emphasis on severe crimes such as homicide and sexual assault, and those property

crimes that touch thousands of good Michigan citizens each year.

Homicide

There is little doubt that murder is one of the most serious criminal offenses. The precise legal

definition of murder may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, and is defined generally as the

unlawful killing of a human being with malice aforethought. The definition of murder has

evolved under modern statutes, and encompasses four varieties of a wanton disregard for human

life: (1) intentional murder; (2) a killing that resulted from the intent to do serious bodily injury;

(3) a killing that resulted from a depraved heart or extreme recklessness; and (4) murder

committed by an accomplice during the commission of, attempt of, or flight from certain

felonies.2

In Michigan, the incidence of the crime of murder has been steadily decreasing since 2005, with

an uncharacteristic upswing in 2006. Although only partial year data is available for 2010, as

can be seen in Figure 1, this most heinous crime has been decreasing or remaining relatively

stable over the last five years.345678

Moreover, in 2009, the overwhelming majority of murder

1 Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.micrstats.state.mi.us/MICR/Home.aspx.

2 Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/murder.

3 Data for 1996, 2001, and 2005 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ad-

analysis05_175995_7.pdf. 4 Data for 2006 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ag-glance06_220683_7.pdf.

5 Data for 2007 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-204981--

,00.html. 6 Data for 2008 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-228589--

,00.html. 7 Data for 2009 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-243369--

,00.html.

http://www.micrstats.state.mi.us/MICR/Home.aspx

http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/murder

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ad-analysis05_175995_7.pdf


http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ag-glance06_220683_7.pdf

http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-204981--,00.html






Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


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719/237-0338

victims in Michigan were male (78%), disproportionally African American (70%), and more

than half (54%) of victims were killed by handguns.9

Figure 1. Trends for the Crime of Homicide in Michigan, 1996-2010.

Forcible Rape

Rape may be one of the most underreported crimes in America, due to the fear, mental health

trauma, and stigma attached to the reporting of sexual assault. Obtaining an accurate breadth and

scope of this crime is a challenge for law enforcement and, sadly, it is estimated that more than

one million Americans are sexually assaulted each year.10

Although traditionally limited to forcible attacks of men on woman, the definition of rape has

evolved and broadened over time. The perception of what constitutes rape has changed, yet can

be defined generally as unlawful sexual activity, usually sexual intercourse, carried out forcibly

or under threat of injury and against the will of the victim.11

According to Michigan statute, rape is the carnal knowledge of a person, forcibly and against

that person's will, or where the victim is incapable of giving consent because of his/her

temporary or permanent mental or physical incapacity. Rape classification includes assault to

rape and attempted rape, and only those offenses where the victim and offender are of the

opposite sex. Other types of sexual penetration are not included.12

As can be seen in Figure 2, In Michigan, the incidence of rape has been declining rapidly since

2005, with a sharp decrease between 2006-2007 (-17.8%).131415161718

Unsurprisingly, in 2009,

8 Partial year data for 2010 retrieved 5/10/2011 from

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2010_6monthPreliminary_Web_333090_7.pdf. 9 Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_Murder_332335_7.pdf.

10 Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.musc.edu/vawprevention/research/sa.shtml.

11 Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.answers.com/topic/rape.

12 Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ak-Rape06_220691_7.pdf.

13 Data for 1996, 2001, and 2005 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ad-

analysis05_175995_7.pdf. 14

Data for 2006 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ag-glance06_220683_7.pdf. 15

Data for 2007 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/msp/0,1607,7-123-1645_3501_4621-204981--

,00.html.

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2010_6monthPreliminary_Web_333090_7.pdf

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_Murder_332335_7.pdf

http://www.musc.edu/vawprevention/research/sa.shtml

http://www.answers.com/topic/rape

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ak-Rape06_220691_7.pdf






Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

719/237-0338

97% of victims were female, most victims were age 10-19, and the crimes predominantly

occurred in a home or residence.19

Further, dispelling the stereotype of “stranger rape,” the data

indicate that most victims and offenders were acquainted (or even family members), and the

relatively high incidence of victims ages 0-10 is most challenging for law enforcement

intervention, child abuse prevention initiatives, and the mental health system.

Figure 2. Trends for the Crime of Forcible Rape in Michigan, 1996-2010.

Aggravated Assault

Aggravated assault is a crime of violence or the threat of violence against another person, and

often results in personal bodily injury involving the use of a weapon.20

There are exceptions and

defenses in the case of aggravated assault such as defense of self or diminished responsibility,

and precise definitions may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction.

According to Michigan statute, aggravated assault is defined as an unlawful attack by one person

upon another wherein the offender uses a weapon or displays it in a threatening manner, or the

victim suffers obvious severe or aggravated bodily injury.21

Aggravated assault is substantially

more severe than simple battery, and an estimated 27,000 incidents of aggravated assault were

reported by Michigan law enforcement in 2009.22

Clearly this is a serious crime resulting in

[potentially] severe bodily injury that affects thousands of victims each year.

As can be seen in Figure 3, the crime of aggravated assault has been on a definite downward

trend since 2005. In fact, the incidence of aggravated assault has decreased more than one-

16


,00.html. 17


,00.html. 18

Partial year data for 2010 retrieved 5/10/2011 from

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2010_6monthPreliminary_Web_333090_7.pdf. 19

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_CSC_Rape_332336_7.pdf. 20

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assault. 21

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_AggravatedAssault_13002_332338_7.pdf. 22


,00.html.






http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_CSC_Rape_332336_7.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assault

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_AggravatedAssault_13002_332338_7.pdf



Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

719/237-0338

quarter (-26.6%) 2005-2009, and since 1996, aggravated assault has decreased almost one-third

since 1996 (-30.5%).2324252627

Moreover, consistent with the demographic trend for the crime of

murder in 2009, more than half of the victims of aggravated assault were male (56%) and

disproportionally African American (54%). Lastly, consistent with the demographic trend for

the crime of rape in 2009, many victims and offenders were acquainted or were family members,

and the stereotype of a random assault or altercation is not supported by the data.

Figure 3. Trends for the Crime of Aggravated Assault in Michigan, 1996-2010.

Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, and Motor Vehicle Theft

Crime touches the lives of many people in American. In Michigan, with an approximate

population of 10 million,28

there are more than 1 million incidents of reported crime annually

and, by definition, many incidents, injuries, and victims go unreported or underreported each

year.29

The large number of property crimes of robbery, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle

theft have been grouped together to depict the Michigan trends regarding crimes against property

that affect the citizens of Michigan on a daily basis.

As can be seen in Figure 4, without exception, all categories of crimes against property have

been decreasing steadily in the last five years. For example, the crimes of larceny that affect

many people in the form of theft from motor vehicles, buildings, purses, and pockets, have

decreased as an aggregate by more than one-quarter (-25.2%) since 2005, and by almost half (-

48.8%) since 1996. Although burglary and robbery have remained relatively stable, there has

been a substantial decrease in the number of people affected by property crimes in the last five

23

Data for 1996, 2001, and 2005 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ad-




,00.html. 26


,00.html. 27



Retrieved on 5/10/11 from http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26000.html. 29

Retrieved on 5/10/11 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Aa-Introduction_GroupA_B_305552_7.pdf.









http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/26000.html

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Aa-Introduction_GroupA_B_305552_7.pdf

Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

719/237-0338

years.303132333435

Lastly, with respect to property crimes, data is not readily available from law

enforcement reporting agencies regarding the demographic characteristics of these perpetrators

such as gender and race, and this is one large category of crimes where perpetrators are

infrequently arrested and documented.

Figure 4. Trends for Crimes against Property in Michigan, 1996-2010.

National Crime Trends and the State of Michigan

Homicide. According to the U.S. Office of Justice Programs, the U.S. incidence of

homicide and non-negligent manslaughter has remained relatively stable since 2005, with a

slight increase (1%) from 2005-2007.36

At the same time, the overall incidence of homicide and

non-negligent manslaughter has decreased slightly (-3%) in the Midwestern States of Illinois,

Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. By comparing year-to-year and from State-to-State, it

can be seen that Michigan experienced a one year upswing in homicides (2006), but all the

Midwestern States appear to be on an improving tract in comparison to the Entire U.S. (See

Table 1).37

30

Data for 1996, 2001, and 2005 retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/Ad-




,00.html. 33


,00.html. 34


,00.html. 35



Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm. 37

It is important to note that across the U.S., the definition of homicide may vary to a degree depending on State

statute and definition.











http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StateCrime.cfm

Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

719/237-0338

Table 1. Trends in the Midwestern U.S. for the Crime of Homicide, 2005-2007.

Midwestern States 2005 2006 2007 Change 05-07

Illinois 770 780 752 -2.3%

Indiana 356 369 356 0.0%

Michigan 629 713 676 7.5%

Ohio 590 539 516 -12.5%

Wisconsin 206 164 183 -11.2%

Sum Midwest 2,551 2,565 2,483 -2.7%

United States-

Total 16,740 17,030 16,929 1.1%

Forcible Rape. According to the U.S. Office of Justice Programs, the U.S. incidence of

forcible rape has been decreasing at a modest pace, with san overall improvement in the

incidence of rape approaching 5%.38

In particular, Michigan has seen the largest decrease from

2005-2007 of more than 10%, and only Wisconsin has experienced a moderate increase among

the Midwestern States (see Table 2).39

Table 2. Trends in the Midwestern U.S. for the Crime of Forcible Rape, 2005-2007.


Illinois 4313 4078 4103 -4.9%

Indiana 1856 1835 1742 -6.1%

Michigan 5199 5269 4579 -11.9%

Ohio 4671 4548 4452 -4.7%

Wisconsin 1,135 1,131 1,223 7.8%

Sum Midwest 17,174 16,861 16,099 -6.3%

United States-Total 94,347 92,757 90,427 -4.2%

Property Crimes. According to the U.S. Office of Justice Programs, the U.S. incidence of

property crimes has decreased slightly since 2005 (-3.3%).40

In fact, all Midwestern States

except Wisconsin have seen small decreases in property climes since 2005. In particular,

Michigan has seen a very small decrease in property crimes since 2005, and according to the

Bureau of Justice Statistics, upwards of 300,000 Michigan citizens and almost 10 million U.S.

citizens in total have been victims of property crimes.41

38


It is important to note that across the U.S., the definition of rape may vary to a degree depending on State statute

and definition. 40


It is important to note that across the U.S., the definition of property crimes may vary to a degree depending on

State statute and definition. According to BJS, property crimes include burglary, larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft,

and arson.



Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

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Table 3. Trends in the Midwestern U.S. for Property Crimes, 2005-2007.


Illinois 394,670 387,478 377,322 -4.4%

Indiana 216,778 221,127 215,526 -0.6%

Michigan 312,892 324,351 308,775 -1.3%

Ohio 420,705 422,235 396,209 -5.8%

Wisconsin 147,556 156,571 158,959 7.7%

Sum Midwest 1,492,601 1,511,762 1,456,791 -2.4%

United States-Total 10,174,754 9,983,568 9,843,481 -3.3%

Public Policy and Crime Management

It is evident that crime in the U.S. and, in particular Michigan, has been decreasing at a moderate

rate for the last five years. By contrast, the number of people under some form of correctional

supervision has reached new highs in the U.S.42

More still needs to be done to lower crime rates,

as in Michigan where more than 1 million citizens annually are affected by violent and property

crimes. Further, assuming that reported crimes substantially underestimate the incidence of “true

crime,” it is estimated that many millions of Michigan residents are affected each year by

crime—and the societal, community, familial, and individual [tangible and intangible] costs are

extremely high.

Long-term national forecasts indicate that the U.S. will need to build more prisons to house

offenders and re-offending individuals. At the same time, States are under enormous financial

pressure to reduce costs and to get the most bang-for-the buck out of existing programs to reduce

criminal behavior. In fact, the financial crash of 2006-2007 has left many States, nonprofit

foundations, and agencies functionally bankrupt, and the relative decrease of criminal behavior is

somewhat surprising in light of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.43

The incidence of criminal behavior in Michigan may be declining gradually because of factors

such as progressive rape statutes (e.g., Rape shield laws, etc.), multijurisdiction task forces, and

stringent enforcement of drug laws, but it is possible that an increase in the incidence of criminal

behavior, child abuse, and domestic violence will lag several years behind the financial

challenges of the late 2000’s. Moreover, other more subtle behavioral markers such as substance

abuse, the number of families falling below the poverty line, or school bullying may prove to be

more sensitive proxies of the financial stress in the U.S. and in the State of Michigan. In fact,

children of color are disproportionally vulnerable to financial stressors in Michigan and many

child victims of violent and property crimes may go unreported or underreported during these

tough financial times.44

42

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.policyalmanac.org/crime/index.shtml. 43

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-2000s_financial_crisis. 44

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.heartlandalliance.org/research/data/michigan07.pdf.

http://www.policyalmanac.org/crime/index.shtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late-2000s_financial_crisis

http://www.heartlandalliance.org/research/data/michigan07.pdf

Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

719/237-0338

Some innovative States such as Washington State have decided to invest in evidenced-based

programs and services, including primary prevention, rather than invest exclusively in the

building of new prisons.45

For instance, investments were made in drug treatment programs,

parenting education, multisystemic therapy, interventions for juveniles, and early childhood

education. As very few States have a strong primary or secondary prevention repertoire of

services, the State of Washington can provide a good lesson for the State of Michigan in

investing in prevention rather than in “rehabilitation.” In fact, Washington State found that

comprehensive prevention programs such as functional family therapy and Nurse Family

Partnership reduced recidivism three-times as much as typical responses such as drug-court.

Victims of crime, especially victims of violent crimes, have rights and liberties that have been

compromised, injured, and damaged. It is imperative that all States take very seriously the

Victims’ Bill of Rights, including the Michigan constitutional amendment to protect rights for

victims.46

Crime victims’ rights ought to be protected as vociferously as the rights of the

accused and, furthermore, the State of Michigan ought to make every effort to integrate the

innovative practice of restorative justice into each case of violent crime or crimes against

property.

For example, the State of Minnesota has followed the practice of restorative justice as developed

in Europe, Asia, Australia, and Africa. Restorative justice is integral to many cultures

worldwide, and helps to bolster communities free from fear and xenophobia. In fact, the Office

of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention has piloted curriculum for use with juveniles,

and in both Minnesota and Texas victims and offenders are being provided safe opportunities for

face-to-face dialogue.47

This type of intensive one-on-one work with victims and offenders

demands staff time and resources, and Michigan struggles like many States with workforce

issues.

In 2009, the State of Michigan reported 16,970 police officers across all police and sheriff

agencies.48

In a State of 10 million residents and almost 100,000 square miles it is

understandable from a workload point of view, that providing one-on-one attention to offenders

and victims is challenging. In fact, the number of officers in 2009 was reduced 3% from 2008,

and it is unlikely that the Governor’s new budget will afford significant additional hires and

advanced training in 2011. With staff limitations in mind, the State of Michigan may be able to

hire or entice paraprofessionals and other auxiliary staff or volunteers to help reduce the

workload of existing officers.

One challenge with any large State staff in a diverse social and economic milieu (i.e., police and

sheriff departments) is that workers wear many “hats” and have diverse roles and

responsibilities, must multi-task, and often spend an inordinate amount of time in meetings,

45

Drake, E.K., Aos, S., & Miller, M.G. (2009). Evidenced-based public policy options to reduce crime and criminal

justice costs: Implications in Washington State. Victims and Offenders, 4:170-196. 46


http://www.ncvc.org/ncvc/main.aspx?dbName=DocumentViewer&DocumentID=32726. 47

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.doc.state.mn.us/rj/publications/reflectionsonnational.htm. 48


http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_AgencyClearanceInformation_332345_7.pdf.

http://www.ncvc.org/ncvc/main.aspx?dbName=DocumentViewer&DocumentID=32726

http://www.doc.state.mn.us/rj/publications/reflectionsonnational.htm

http://www.michigan.gov/documents/msp/2009Annual_AgencyClearanceInformation_332345_7.pdf

Paul Frankel, Ph.D.


[email protected]

719/237-0338

waiting in queue, and processing paperwork or other digital documentation. Further, some cases

using innovative practices such as restorative justice or crime prevention techniques require a

greater “workload” for success and fidelity. The State of Michigan would benefit by conducting

a large-scale workload study on police and sheriffs in order to ascertain what services are being

offered, the degree of follow-up to offenders and victims, and how much time officers are

spending inefficiently or on unnecessary tasks.

For example, the State of New York conducted a large-scale workload study of child welfare

caseworker practices, which could be extrapolated to a workload study for police and sheriffs.49

In the New York study it was found that caseworkers generally spend less than two-thirds of

their time actually providing services for clients, and the rest of time was spent waiting, filing,

reporting, and generally being unproductive. Analogously, by examining in detail the

characteristics of officers on-the-job, it is conceivable that inefficiencies in police practice could

be identified (e.g., voluminous paperwork, waiting for court, etc.) and exchanged for more

effective and streamlined practices.

Final Thoughts: The State of the State

We are proud to be Michiganders, with a long history of economic, cultural and social successes.

Despite some relatively recent sensationalism and negative reporting for Michigan’s real and

imagined shortcomings, hardworking and law abiding citizens of Michigan abound. In fact, the

crime rate continues to improve substantially; unemployment may dip below 10% for the first

time in several years; the Governor has announced new federal grants for the State; and,

agriculture, the demand for green jobs, tourism, and the reinvention of the automotive industry

are harbingers of future solvency.50

As with much of the U.S. and with most States in the Midwestern U.S., the incidence of serious

crime in Michigan is decreasing at a considerable rate—in some cases as much as 10%.

Although somewhat unexpected based on the financial challenges of the late 2000’s, progressive

and innovative law enforcement practices and policies account for a number of the positive

changes. Nonetheless, much work remains to make Michigan more secure for all citizens,

especially for the economically disadvantaged and families of color.

Several public policy recommendations have been offered for crime management in Michigan,

and not every option requires additional funding or zero-sum State budget decisions. For

example, reorganizing funding priorities from a focus on prisons and incarceration to a focus on

primary prevention and building protective factors requires a paradigmatic shift in long-term

strategic planning. For some policy recommendations, such as a large-scale workload study to

identify efficiencies in policing, additional funding for research will be needed. For each policy

recommendation, evidence has been provided based on the successes of other States, and no

options seem cost prohibitive as the State of Michigan recovers gradually from economic and

political sluggishness. Michigan appears to have “re-discovered” itself!

49

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://www.ocfs.state.ny.us/main/reports/WorkloadStudy.pdf. 50

Retrieved 5/10/2011 from http://milmi.org/admin/uploadedPublications/1781_MI_Econ_Ind_Winter2011.pdf.

http://www.ocfs.state.ny.us/main/reports/WorkloadStudy.pdf

http://milmi.org/admin/uploadedPublications/1781_MI_Econ_Ind_Winter2011.pdf

frankel crime trends michigan

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