frank r. leslie, b. s. e. e., m. s. space technology, ls ieee adjunct professor, florida tech...
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Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE
Adjunct Professor, Florida Tech1/28/2010, Rev. 1.4
fleslie @fit.edu; (321) 674-7377
my.fit.edu/~fleslie
27 The Future of Energy 2010
Crude Oil NYMEX: $74 on 1/27/10$102 on 9/29/2008$90 Low on 9/15/08$147 High on 7/11/08$65.71 on 4/25/07
CNNMoney.com
Introduction
Sustainable energy comes from the sun or from tidal forces of the moon and sun
Sustainable” implies not using energy faster than the energy can be replenished
In a broader sense, sustainability is not using all our resources, but leaving something for future generations
Since fossil fuels represent millions of years of “stored sunlight”, they are depleting and not sustainable
Future predictions are predicated upon uncertain trends and assumptions (how much are they wrong?)
The future is ill-defined!
100125
Are they having fun?
Why did thishappen?
Does Energy Affect our Lives?
FOXnews 8/15/2003
Happy New Yorkers out for a Stroll!
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1 The Age of Cheap Energy is Nearly Over!
“Hubbert’s Peak” indicates US oil production peaked about 1970; World peak might be 2007-9
Oil prices are volatile, but the long term trend is up as extraction becomes more expensive
Volatile gasoline and diesel prices are increasing erratically in the long term!
Natural gas prices are rising and massive hydrogen production will speed that trendHydrogen will be made from natural gas first,
then coal, then possibly through nuclear thermal conversion or electrolysis from wind or sun --- a matter of cost
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1. Overview of Energy Sources
Currently, energy primarily comes from combustion of fossil fuels or nuclear energy
Electricity and hydrogen are energy carriers, not primary sources!
In some areas of the World, wind energy is being significantly developed: Europe, United States, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, India, China are a few
Energy sources are so critical to civilizations that many wars have been fought over these resources
Lack of common local energy sources can hold back the development of a nation
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1.1.1 Energy Source Categories
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Alternative
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear Fission
Conventional
RenewableNonrenewable
Wood
Hydro
Human/Animal
Wind Water Pumping
1.1.2 Energy Source Categories
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Alternative
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear Fission
Conventional
RenewableNonrenewable
Wood
Hydro
Human/Animal
Wind Water Pumping
1.1.3 Energy Source Categories
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Geothermal
Oil Shale, CTL
Tar Sands
Methane Hydrates
Alternative
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear Fission
Conventional
RenewableNonrenewable
1.1.4 Energy Source Categories
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Sustainable means using less than is renewed; if water is withdrawn from a dam faster than it is refilled, the level drops and hydro power is lessened, and finally fails
Nonrenewable
Renewable
Conventional
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear Fission
Wood
Hydro
Human/Animal
Wind Water Pumping
Alternative Geothermal
Oil Shale, CTL
Tar Sands
Methane Hydrates
Wind Solar Biomass
Wave/Tide Ocean Current
1.1.5 Energy Sources (2006)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html080825
https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov
A Hydrogen Economy in 2050?
1.2 Fossil Fuels
Long-stored energy from fossil fuels that will be eventually depleted, while renewable energy is sustainable indefinitely
As easy-to-get fuel is extracted, costs will rise in getting the more-difficult resources; drill oil at 12,000 feet?
Fuels must be transported from farther away, thus increasing total price of it and what’s made with it
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1.2.1 Energy Dependence upon Foreign Countries
Our dependency on cheap oil has lead to a slavish relationship to the oil dealers(US dependency on cheap drugs has lead to a
slavish relationship with the drug dealers)
So do we need a “12-step way” to free us from our oil addiction?
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Is it best to use all our oil first so we can be at the mercy of outside despots? --- OR ---
Should we use imported oil first to save our US oil for hard times later?
1.2.2 US Crude Oil Sources (2008)
US demands 19.9 million bbl petroleum/day but produces 5 million crude; 9.8 million bbl crude/day is imported
Some crude is exported, refined elsewhere, and imported as gasoline since the US is short refinery capacityStill, how to economically justify building a 40-
year life refinery for 20-year depleting oil?
The offshore continental shelf (OSC) plus western lands might add 3 million barrels per day, but that wouldn’t drive the price much lower
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1.2.3 US Energy Imports --- 9/2008 or so
Crude oil, for example; 11 million barrel/day (Mbd)Canada 1.883 MbdSaudi Arabia 1.479 Mbd (9.45 Mbd
total)Mexico 1.124 MbdVenezuela 1.085 MbdNigeria 0.946 Mbd Iraq 0.693 MbdAnd Angola, Brazil, Algeria, Russia,
Kuwait, Ecuador, Columbia, Chad, Libya
The NE US also imports electricity and natural gas from Canada
100125 Photo: www.tesc.edu
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html
1.3 The Hubbert Curve Predicts Fossil Fuel Decline
Dr. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, predicted in 1956 that the US oil peak would be reached in 1970. Later, others predicted the World oil peak would occur in the first decade of the 21st Century.
Past the production peak at 2006-2011 (?), oil prices will increase as extraction becomes more difficult and the price is bid up.
www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm
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1.3.1 US Oil Production Peaks!
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1.3.2 Some World Oil Production Peaks!
080813See The Oil Drum for more
1.3.2 Oil Peak
www.theoildrum.com/files/2010_January_Oilwatch_Monthly.pdfwww.oecd.org/ may help
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1.3.4 Constant Dollar Energy (2008)
www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview.html
2. Energy Demand
The World produces about 85.4 M bbl/day, but uses about 85.7 million barrels petroleum per day (crude oil + liquids); working on storage
The US uses about 20.7 million barrels of petroleum per day while producing 8.3 million barrels per day
OPEC produces 32.7 Mbd, ~40% of World demand
Major oil pipeline through Country of Georgia
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2.1 Supply & Demand Effects
Crude oil trades on a world marketElectronic trading permits 24-hour tradingIf the demand exceeds or approaches the
supply, prices increase indefinitelyThe US doesn’t affect the market price as
much as world events that threaten the oil supply Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, war threats, closing the Strait
of Hormuz, bombings and deaths, hurricanes, etcChina and India are increasing their
demands for oil, buying from the same suppliers that we use and competing with us on price
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Photo from NOAA
2.1.1 Hurricane Katrina & Petroenergy
080820http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html
The heart of US oil production and refineries was struck by Katrina; lost 25% production
Production had been shut down to prevent losses and to allow the workers to leave; lost some offshore Gulf rigs
Pipelines were shut down in case of storm damage
Gasoline shortages occurred throughout the Southeast
This shortage lasted several months, but eventual fossil fuel depletion will cause lasting problems and high prices
2.1 US Energy Usage
www.eia.doe.gov
2.2 Energy Information Sources and Beliefs
Information sources should be skeptically analyzed Whose info is it? What or who do they represent? What do
they really want? What’s their agenda?Sometimes animal rights organizations push vegan diets for
good health, but they really want no animals killed for foodPETA now pressing for cloned synthetic chicken so that
real chickens won’t be killed
Beliefs of an organization may taint or slant dataNonconforming info is disregarded or modified to make it
“right” as it doesn’t match their long-held dogmaThey take surveys of their members (~<0.5% of population)
and contend that represents the public as a wholeSometimes pure hatred of the opposition overwhelms the
group and taints every expressed viewpoint
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2.3 The Bountiful Life
We have become conditioned to lives filled with the joys of cheap energy
Microwave ovens are more efficient cookers than electric range “eyes”, yet they were developed just to save time
Multiple family cars are the norm to allow independent travel of the family members
Vehicles enable greater “urban sprawl”Living farther away from work requires more energy-
consuming travel (and money) to get thereWhy should a business be located “downtown”?A clean industry like Harris Corporation in Melbourne, FL
is essentially located in a residential area where workers can live nearby
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2.3.1 Conspicuous Consumption
Some objects are more for show than utilityV-12, 1200 hp Cadillac engine touted in ads12,000 square foot homesExpensive imported foods; 1500-mile saladLong-distance air travel for an hour meeting“Business” meetings at golf & ski resorts
Birthday party in Sardinia for Tyco exec Kozlowski’s wife$56,000 Hummers suitable for war support on our
highwaysPotential for a stylish new model with welded,
inoperable 0.50 caliber machine gun on roof for show?Unimog military SUVs now available (upper right)
Driven to an Oregon renewable energy fair by an RE fan!
Conversely, if someone wants to pay for something wasteful, shouldn’t they be allowed to buy it?
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http://www.unimog.net/
3. Energy Considerations
SustainabilityGlobal WarmingEnergy ConservationEnergy EfficiencyEnergy Plans
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3.3.2 “Green Buildings”
Buildings use a large amount of energy to offset energy loss through the envelopeWindows, walls, ceiling, floors, and doorsAir lock doors reduce heat loss as people pass
Lighting, motors, and bodies provide internal heat that must be removed in summer but is useful heat in the winter
When water is heated by the sun, it avoids the consumption of electricity or natural gas
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3.3.2.1 Green Energy Cities: US
Chicago, IL Goal: 20% RE by 2006; now 15% Solar on all municipal buildings RFP issued: Solargenix won 2010: 25% RE; 28% energy mgm’t; 22% distributed
generation;25% cogeneration
Sacramento, CA Goal: 10% nonhydro by 2006; 20% by 2011 ~60% RE now; among top ten US cities supplying RE
Portland, OR Goal: new wind farm; green buildings; 100% RE by 2010 10% RE now; 1 million kWh waste methane fuel cells; green
tags
Austin, TX “Goal” 35% RE and Efficiency by 2020; solar initiative 100MW
by 2020
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3.4 Energy Plans
Polls show the public wants the energy problems fixed; 76% want more oil drilling
Presidential candidates had ignored energy problem, speaking in generalities and platitudes, but are now responding with plans
Plans reflect their present core beliefs, perhaps, but change frequently
Plans differ a lot! I’ll show just one
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3.4.7 The Paris Hilton Plan!
“Limited drilling offshore with strict environmental oversight”
“Create tax incentives to get Detroit to make electric and hybrid cars”
“That way, the offshore drilling carries us until the new technologies kick in, which will then create new jobs and energy independence”
“Energy crisis solved!”
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Ref: Christian Science Monitor
[Just trying to be comprehensive here --- work with me!]
4.3.1 Cornucopians vs. Cassandras
Cornucopians believe that “needs” and “wants” will always be provided forJust in time, a technical breakthrough will
allow us to get more for less, and we want more, more, more!
The “Horn of Plenty” is always full to overflowing!
“Don’t worry, be happy!”“If it feels good, do it!” --- Nike trademark
080907 http://desktoppub.about.com/
4.3.2 “The Horn of Plenty” Shall Always Provide
As European civilization expanded to North America, necessity led to inventions that preserved life or made it easier or betterSteam train, steam engines, windmills, waterpower,
electric lights, telegraph, repeating rifle, telephone, automobiles, airplanes, television, computers, internet, etc.
New needs led to solutions; what worked evolved into better approaches
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http://desktoppub.about.com/
4.3.4 “The Sky is Falling”: What Shall We Do? What Shall We Do?
The Malthusian Theory held that the increase in population would swamp limited resourcesDeath, famine, war, and pestilence would
resultAn apocalyptic result
(It’s been postponed so far!)
1960 Scary movie: “No Blade of Grass”A group of economists, scientists,
and doomsayers examine the outlookRunningOnEmpty.comDieOff.comCaution: these sites may not be suitable
for children or adults!Still, there is great emphasis on self-sufficiency
080907 http://www.postermaniacs.com/originals/onesheets/no_blade_of_grass.jpg
4.4 Agendas, Slants, & Scams
Agendas (often are kept for the “faithful”)Wants dam removal for river rafting; argues fish are being
killedLikes yachting in Narragansett Bay; argues wind farms
interfere with navigation (in shallow water yet)Wants next-door forest to remain; they plant endangered
species to “be discovered” Oh! look there!; can’t clear this!Slants
Carefully selects info to push the internal “message”; rejects and discredits the opposite view
Selects minor views of opponents and trumpets themScams
Venture capital gatherers with small chance of successSolicitations of public donations with 70% going to staff
salariesCar runs on water!
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4.5 Direct Effects Upon Consumers
High energy bills stretch budgets as prices riseElectricity (affecting price of products bought)Gasoline Natural Gas or heating oil
High gasoline price definition:“Too high” if majority buys fuel efficient vehicles; but
“not high” if majority buys poor efficiency vehicles (like 12-16 mpg SUVs and trucks)
The “Time” magazine effect: Whenever a subject is so trendy that editors put it on the front cover of Time magazine, the trend may be overPublic thinks this is a “coming issue” when it’s past“Smart money” is bailing out; don’t rush in
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4.6 Lifestyle Changes Needed!
Practice energy conservation and save your money for “fun” purchases (and investments for retirement)
Increase energy efficiency to save even more money for other needed/wanted uses
Think of the marginal utility of “supersizing” your lifeLess quantity or fewer features may be acceptable and allow
your money to be used for other things you really wantWould you rather eat a slice of watermelon or a whole
watermelon? Isn’t there a limit to “wants”?
Your time may be far more valuable than your moneyLive close to where you work so you don’t waste your life
stuck in traffic “Fifteen-minute rule”Work at what you would do for free, but don’t tell your boss!
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4.7 What Does the Future Hold for Our Children Now?
People that we know, children and grandchildren, will suffer from increased fossil fuel prices
Those that we don’t know, greatgreatgrandchildren may have it even worse; for great7grandchildren, worse yet
What we do today affects future generations --- shouldn’t we care?
(Is it really “All about MEME!”)A surging world population will fight to get or control
energy sources, leading to wars far worse than IraqPeople of developing countries will crave to live as those do
in the highly over-consuming U.S. and marketeers will ensure this cravingEffect of global TV influences and makes people aware of
distant consumption trends; “I want to live like those people in those TV shows!”
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5. Transportation
Rowing, animal power, human powerWind, sailing ships, airplanesWood, coal, diesel and gasoline fuelsElectricity and motors
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This steam car was designed by Nicholas Joseph Cugnot and constructed by M. Brezin in 1769, shown bumping a wall in Paris
Oops!
http://www.ausbcomp.com/~bbott/cars/carhist.htm
5.1 Transportation Energy Usage
Petroleum fuels predominate
Costs determined the development and selection of primary fuels
Loss of petroleum can depress the economy for years
080820 http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energyfacts/uses/transportation.html
5.1.1 Energy Shortages
In 1973, Arabian oil countries embargoed oil shipments to the United States because we had supported Israel in the Six-Day War against EgyptGasoline shortages across the US led to long lines of cars at
gasoline pumps, and impatient drivers assaulting each otherPrices did not really soar, but gas fill-ups were often limited to
so many dollars or gallons (rationing); even-odd fill-up daysTrans-Alaska Pipeline approved in 1973 (early enviro protest
claimed animals would be afraid; similarity to ANWR claims)
Through many contentious issues, California had an electricity crisis that was responsible for replacing Governor Davis with a popular actor, Arnold SchwarzeneggerBlackouts get the voters’ attention faster than pleas!Shortages or total outages are perceived very differently by the public
than blackouts from equipment failures
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5.1.2 Fuel Prices from EERE in May 2008
080815 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2008_fotw526.html
5.1.3 Constant $ Gasoline in 2005
Adjusted price has now exceeded the 2000 peak
080822 http://ncga.fhdigital.com/sitefiles/1000/gas_graph.jpg
5.1.3.1 Price versus Utility?
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5.1.4 Daily US Commuting Distance
SOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Omnibus Household Survey. Aggregated data cover activities for the month prior to the survey.
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93% of commuters drive less than 35miles
5.3 Alternative Fuel Vehicles
AFVs don’t use gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel, the conventional fuels
An early version was the 1908 Bishop electric car – Jay Leno owns and drives one
In 1957, I saw propane forklift trucks inside a huge Frigidaire plant where I was a co-op student The fumes were claimed to be “clean” Western states have conversions of pickup
trucks to start on gasoline and run on propane
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5.3. Alternative Fuel Vehicles
This 2007 Rally was from the Florida Solar Energy Center (Cocoa) to Florida Tech’s Panther Plaza in Melbourne
5.3.1 Solar Challenge Rally
DOE started Sunrayce rallies to mirror the World Solar Challenge Races in Australia
Later, Sunrayce was renamed the American Solar Challenge, and adding Canada, it became the North American Solar Challenge
In 2008, University of Michigan’s Continuum won on the Dallas to Calgary route
080820 2007, Dutch Nuna won!
Started at Disney Lake Buena Vista, FL
Eleven day trip with overnight stops
Chase van with a warning sign accompanied the car
The van also read out the solar car performance data by radio link
Two-way radio provided voice communications
Ended at GM Tech Center, Warren, MIA
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1990 Sunrayce Solar Race
Map by Dorian West, 1990
5.3.1.1 Florida Tech Solar Car
5.3.1.1 Florida Tech at the 1990 Sunrayce
This car was cosmetically restored in 2007, but is no longer operational
The Sunshine Special originally required $225,000 in funding080820
5.3.1.2 Florida Tech’s Racing Electric Vehicle
Racing Electric Vehicle, 10/07/2007080806
5.3.1.2 2007 Racing Electric Vehicle (REV)
Formula Lightning autocross racer
Touchscreen steering wheel
Battery monitoring comm
-- Design Objectives --
- Acceleration from 0 to 60 mph in under 5 seconds
- Top speed of 85 mph
- Maximum power available between 20 and 40 mph.
- Lightweight (under 650 lb with driver)
- 15 minute battery life running at high performance speeds
5.3.2 Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs)
PHEVs have a large battery that is charged by 120Vac utility power 15A outlet anywhere
There is also a small engine-alternator that can charge the battery using a fuel like gasoline, compressed natural gas (CNG), or biofuel
The engine only burns fuel if the voltage falls too low and the battery needs charging
Estimated battery-only range might be 40 to 100 miles a day between nighttime charges
Cleanliness depends on most local utility source
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5.3.2.1 A Plug-in Prius
Third-party kits available for changing a Prius to a PHEV (voids factory warranty?) Charger uses 120Vac <15 amps, a standard
house outlet
Toyota working on a 2010 production model
100121 Photo: Motortrend
5.3.3 1974-1983 Sebring Citicar
Sebring Vanguard company in Florida
Response to 1973 gasoline crisis met by battery car with fiberglass body
080820 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar
5.3.4 Electric Car plus a “Pusher”
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5.3.5 Tesla Racer
The Tesla Racer is all electric, sporty, and pricey (at first)
080820Photo by Tesla Motors
5.3.6 GM Volt --- an Electric Car
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Introductory GM Volt and Vice Chairman Bob Lutz
Photo by Jeffrey Sauger, ©GM Corp.
5.3.7 Hydrogen Cars
Hydrogen-fueled cars are similar to compressed natural gas (CNG) cars
Hydrogen is an energy carrier like electricity and must be made
Tank pressures are ~6,000 to 10,000 psi
100127 Photo, F. Leslie, 2006
Present prototypes cost ~$1 million; fuel costs extra! This is the Progress Energy car I requested for the Sustainability Forum at Olin Life Sciences
5.4 Trains
Biodiesel has cleaner emissions; easy changeoverElectric trains require expensive trackside or
overhead conductors for direct connectionLarge battery cars might supply energy for the
motors and could be quickly changed at stops for fully charged units
Present diesels dump braking power into cab-top resistors (no batteries), but with attached battery cars, recharging is economical
A hybrid version would carry engine-alternators for recharging using CNG, biodiesel, or perhaps H2The engine-alternators for recharging would stay in the
locomotive so it could move independently from the battery car
080822www.trainweb.org/gensets/brookville/bmex/259a.jpg
5.5 Airplanes
Airplanes must carry nonlead (too heavy) batteries or fuel cells sufficient to reach the next airport or use recharging engines
Hydrogen high-pressure flask size may restrict the distance that can be traveled with fuel cells
Hybrid aircraft might use fuel to reach altitude and then change to electric motors or fuel cells to sustain altitude at a lesser speed
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5.6 Ships
Ships are now having diesel engines converted to use natural gas
An existing SkySails wind kite design can partially pull the ship to reduce fuel usage
Hull drag efficiency offers a 3% cost savings
Florida Tech ocean engineering students are designing a model hull with dimples like a golf ball to reduce drag about 3% (2008)
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6. Future of Long-Term Energy Forecasts
Energy needed depends upon how much energy is being used, how efficiently, and where
As other countries develop large energy uses, they increase the demands, and price increases
Worldwide problems can be solved locallyChina coal pollution by mercury reaches the US West
Coast, but US actions can only affect the total pollution
Energy growth curves show high consumer demands that must be accommodated by utility planning and construction; some groups say the public must just use less, a hard sellEnviro quote: “I won’t be happy until gasoline costs $10
to $15 per gallon!” from a Sierra Club email
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6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010)
I predict that energy prices will be much higher in 2050, as energy becomes more costly to extract and increased antipollution costs are passed on to the consumer
In some states, more nuclear plants will be placed in operation while in others, nuclear plants will be closedThese changes will be primarily politically driven
Fossil fuel plants will become expensive to operate (cap-and-trade) and ratepayer prices will increase
Cars will tend to be hybrids using advanced batteries and small recharging engines of perhaps 30 hp
Tractors for trailers may run on natural gas from large tanks behind the cab (Picken’s Plan)
Air travel will decline, with trains substituting100127
6.1 My Energy Price Forecasts (1/2010)
Crude OilPrices become extremely volatile, destabilizing the market
$147/bbl on 7/11/08, then $106 on 9/5/08; perhaps $200 by January, 2009; perhaps $100 by January, 2011?
GasolinePrices rise to $6-10 per gallon (CPI-adjusted) within your
lifetimes, and not due to taxes as in Europe!Electricity
Becomes more diverse, with growing renewables used, as fossil fuel becomes expensive beyond belief or affording
CO2 capture increases price (51% now from coal)Public Transportation
Aircraft: Oil costs may preclude, or use of gases may require frequent landing to refuel limited capacity energy tanks
Trains: Take over some air traffic, but tracks are vulnerable to easy terrorist attack because they are accessible for miles
Trucking Industry: Expands to carry more people in posh cargo containers similar to Victorian train cars -- a specially “bus”
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6.2 Energy Competition by Nations
China and India have large populations that will want and buy more energy, driving the price upTata company of India selling a $2500 car
The other developing nations will do the same, but with less effect at first
Russia has large oil and natural gas resources to control world markets for “national power”
The US President and Congress can’t set the World crude oil price, but the massive effect of the public shifting their demand willThe US competes on the world energy market
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6.3 Future of Energy
The transition of energy from conventional, fossil fuels to cleaner renewables will take decades --- natural gas will survive for years
Al Gore, global warming advocate pushes for no fossil fuels in the next 8 years, but renewables, conservation, and efficiency are still developing and must change from ~4% to over 90% in a short time
Electrical grid must change to carry renewable energy from resource to load centers (cities)
Rechargeable vehicles are as clean as the utility source, which will shift from coal to renewables due to politics, ideology, and good practices
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6.3.1 Future of Renewable Energy
Wind power continues to grow at ~30% - 40% per yearAs turbines become more widespread, the “pushback”
against them fades
Solar energy responds to cheaper solar modules and government subsidies
Geothermal heat pumps operate more efficiently and standard heat pumps have fittings for adding a ground source/sink loop
Biofuels develop at commercial levels, and engines are redesigned to accept these fuels
Hydroelectric systems are added at the <30 MW size as economics win over NIMBY and “viewscape” protests
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6.3.2 Future of Renewable Energy
Ocean tidal, wave and current energy develops for coastal areasCurrent energy devices provide technology for
river and some stream energy extraction
Distributed energy from rooftop solar water and electrical systems reduce need for transmission line installations
Nuclear fission spent fuel is recycled to make additional fuel (not really a renewable)
Nuclear fusion remains a 30-year technology
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Conclusions
Humans must have air, water, food, and energyFossil fuel pollution may increase “Green House
Effect” believed to cause global warmingFuture cars likely will be plug-in hybrids running
occasionally on CNG, bioethanol or biodiesel for long trips; design options based upon area
Trains will replace aircraft for civilian long trips (price, convenience, and harassment factor)
Renewable energy offers a long-term, sustainable approach to the World’s energy needs, but costs moreCost decreases plus fossil fuels increase in price
Economics drives the selection process and short-term (first cost) thinking leads to disregard of long-term, overall cost --- this attitude must change!
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Conclusion
Increasing oil, natural gas, and coal prices will ensure that the transition to renewable energy will occur ―
How will we choose to do it?
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080710
Thank you!
Questions? ? ?My website: my.fit.edu/~fleslie
for presentations
Roberts Hall weather and energy data: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/roberts/RH.htm
DMES Meteorology Webpage: my.fit.edu/wx_fit/?q=obs/realtime/roberts
References: Books
Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. Oxford, 2007
Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973.
Duffie, John and William A. Beckman. Solar Engineering of Thermal Processes. NY: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 920 pp., 1991
Gipe, Paul. Wind Energy for Home & Business. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Pub. Co., 1993. 0-930031-64-4, TJ820.G57, 621.4’5
Patel, Mukund R. Wind and Solar Power Systems. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 1999, 351 pp. ISBN 0-8493-1605-7, TK1541.P38 1999, 621.31’2136
Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4.
Aubrecht, Gordon J. Energy, Second Edition. NJ: Upper Saddle River, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 668 pp., 1995. 0-02-304601-5. TJ163.2.A88.
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References: Websites, etc.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/[email protected]. Wind Energy [email protected]. Wind energy home powersite elistgeothermal.marin.org/ on geothermal energymailto:[email protected] rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps/chap2/2-01m.html PNNL wind energy map
of CONUS [email protected]. Elist for wind energy experimenters
www.dieoff.org. Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population
www.ferc.gov/ Federal Energy Regulatory Commissionwww.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/otec_hi.html#anchor349152 on OTEC systemstelosnet.com/wind/20th.htmlwww.google.com/search?q=%22renewable+energy+course%22solstice.crest.org/dataweb.usbr.gov/html/powerplant_selection.htmlhttp://cr.middlebury.edu/es/altenergylife/70's.htmhttp://www.barcelonaenergia.com/eng/observatory/bcnenergy3.htm
080811 …\RECallWebsite\ . . \ .ClassPPT\RE27Future of Energy [was FutureTrends]