Francis X. JohnsonSenior Research Fellow, Energy and Climate

Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)

Sida / SEI - Climate for Development Seminar

Stockholm, March 13 2009

Bio-resources for Development in a Changing Climate:

A review of issues, progress, and plans

• 1977-1980s: Beijer Institute studies on fuel wood in Africa• 1980s: cookstoves, appropriate technology• 1980s-90s: Energy Modelling/Analysis (LEAP, other tools)• 1990s: Biomass utilisation technology/implementation studies• 1998-2000: Study on energy from sugar cane, Luena, Zambia• 2000-04: World Bank study-Advancing Modern Bioenergy• 2003-09: bioenergy research networks, integrated assessment

SEI historical highlights on biomass and bioenergy

Outline of the Talk1. Introduction

2. Characteristics and Potential for Biofuels (Bio-resources)

3. Review and Examples of Activities and Deliverables

4. Review of Progress

5. Plans for remainder of programme

Bioenergy-Climate-Development driving forces Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods Relieving resource pressures and stresses Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration Energy security: local – regional – global Rural health issues - indoor air Urban health issues – lead, air quality future competitiveness of agro-industries Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits Carbon Finance opportunities for LDCs, including CDM Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification

Share of biomass in global energy consumption

Oil 35%

Natural gas 22%

Coal 22%

Nuclear7%

Biomass11%

Other renewables

3%

Large hydro 16%

Traditional biomass

68%

Modern bio-energy11%

Other ‘New’ renewables

5%

Source: IEA and UNDP, 2004-2007

Distribution of biomass used globally for energy by type and end-use

(total global energy use estimated at 450 EJ)

Source: IEA/WEA 2007

Intensity of agricultural cultivation remains low in most world regions

Land area per capita by type and major countries or regions

Source: FAOSTAT, 2008

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

China Brazil ASEAN EU27 India Other Asia SADC Sub-Saharan

Africa

UnitedStates ofAmerica

WORLD

Are

a (h

a p

er c

apit

a)

Arable land and Permanent crops Permanent meadows and pastures Forest area Other land

The Role of modern bioenergyModern bioenergy will play a leading role in the global transition to clean and

sustainable energy due to two decisive advantages over other renewables:(1) Biomass is stored energy. Like fossil fuels, it can be drawn on at any time, in sharp

contrast to daily or seasonally intermittent solar, wind, and small hydro sources, whose contributions are all constrained by the high costs of energy storage.

(2) Biomass can produce all forms of energy, i.e. energy carriers, for modern economies: electricity, gas, liquid fuels, and heat. Solar, wind, wave and hydro are limited to electricity and in some cases heat.

Modern bioenergy has several other advantages over other energy resources: • provides rural jobs and income to people who grow or harvest the bioenergy

resources; bioenergy is more labour-intensive than other energy resources;• increases profitability in the agriculture, food-processing and forestry sectors.

Biomass residues and wastes--often with substantial disposal costs--can instead be converted to energy for sale or for internal use to reduce energy bills;

• helps to restore degraded lands. Growing trees, shrubs or grasses can reverse damage to soils, with energy production and sales as a valuable bonus;

1.Local use of forest and agricultural residues2. Assuring proper waste treatment, processing of residues,

and energy efficiency3. Infrastructure development4. National market development through supportive policies

and incentives5. Regional biomass markets, medium-to-large scale

utilization, transport logistics6. Increasing scale, followed by decreasing costs7. Global commodity market

The Bioenergy Transition: the transformation of biomass from a predominantly local resource into a strategic, multi-purpose, multi-

product international commodity

Estimated 1st generation biofuel potentials, theoretical biofuel demands and production capacities (as of end 2006) for selected world regions

(Areas of circles depict approximate comparative scales)

FOSSIL ENERGY BALANCEEstimated Energy output per unit of fossil fuel input

Source: Various, compiled by World Watch Institute, 2007.

ETHANOL BIODIESEL

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

SugarCane

Wheat SugarBeets

Corn Palm Oil Wastevegetable

Oil

Soy Rape

1. Stakeholder Events and Expert Consultationsa) FAO consultations + SOA: bioenergy, food security, and climateb) Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels Consultationsc) Organisation of Side Events: WIREC, Bali-COP

2. Capacity-Building and Research Networksa) Southern African Biofuels Association (SABA)b) South Asia (SAARC) Biofuels Strategyc) LDC Implementation Issues - EU Biofuels Sustainability Criteria

3. Regional Assessmentsa) SADC region – sugar caneb) Food-feed-fuel: MERCOSUR/Uruguay – soybeansc) Bioenergy Best practice, South-South technology transfer

4. Local case studiesa) Tanzania – land use impactsb) Mozambique – agricultural development - livelihoodsc) Case study 3: HH-use of ethanol stoves, location to be finalised

Summary of activities & deliverables (Tasks 3.1 & 3.3)

North-South-South Forum on Biofuels, Climate and Sustainable Development

Official Side Event Washington International Renewable Energy

Conference Thursday 6 March 2008, 15:00; Room 149 A

Introductory remarks: Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Moderator:Suzanne Hunt, Worldwatch Institute• Panellists: • Sergio Trindade, SE2T International, NY, USA • Li Junfeng, Deputy Director, Energy Research Institute (ERI), China • Prof. Roberto Moreira, National Reference Centre for Biomass, Brazil • Gail Karlsson, Energia • Lawrence Agbemabiese, UNEP-DTIE • Ishmael Edjekumhene, KITE, Ghana

Key provisions of EU Renewable Energy Directive related to biofuels

• Binding 10% share of renewable fuels for transport• Biofuels must meet sustainability criteria to qualify • Minimum GHG reduction – 35%, increasing to 50% in 2017• Establishes “no-go” areas: undisturbed forests, nature reserves, bio-

diverse grasslands, wetlands• Biofuels from wastes or lignocellulosics emphasised• Methodology Equation + Default values for GHG emissions• Incentives for biofuels from degraded lands• Member States reporting requirements, COM updates• Indirect land use change (ILUC) NOT included, COM to issue report

on methodologies for ILUC in 2010

What implications for Least Developed Countries?

• Large potential market provides a major opportunity• Meeting GHG criteria will generally not be a problem, but

tracking, data collection, analysis could be• Land availability vs. land tenure vs. changing land values• Definition of grasslands • Degraded lands - given low cost of land in general for

foreign investors, few incentives to use it• Co-products allocation should be developed• lower energy intensity of agriculture should be an advantage• Measurement, monitoring, compliance are the key issues for

LDC producers – missing from Directive

Potentially suitable and available land for sugar cane in southern Africa (1000 ha)

Country land area

Potentially suitable

Available and

suitable ShareAngola 124 670 1 626 1 127 0.90%Malawi 9 408 742 206 2.19%Mozambique 78 409 4 906 2 338 2.98%Tanzania* 87 869 1 694 467 0.53%Zambia 74 339 3 546 1 178 1.58%Zimbabwe 38 667 2 935 620 1.60%ALL 413 362 15 449 5 936 1.44%

CountryAverage

YieldArea

Harvested

Available and

suitable Ratio(tc/Ha) 1000 Ha 1000 Ha

Angola 38 10 1 127 113Malawi 105 20 206 10Mozambique 103 30 2 338 78Tanzania 106 17 467 27Zambia 106 17 1 178 69Zimbabwe 105 45 620 14ALL 139 5 936 43

Comparison to existing cane cultivation

Source: Watson, H., Johnson, F.X. et al 2008

Sugar Cane Harvesting is semi-mechanised

Burning prior to harvest still common in Africa (to remove pests and extraneous matter)

Phase-out of burning would lead to mechanisation

Identifying key land use issues for Tanzania case study

Mozambique Case Study: analysing scale, livelihoodsLarge Scale

1. Sugarcane to EtOH2. Palm / Soy Biodiesel

Factory-owned estate

Very competitive globally

Lower Value Added to

Local Communities*lowest risk

Export potential

Small-holder led

Higher cost base

Less globally competitive

Higher Value Added to

Local Communitie

s*moderate

risk

Export potential

Small Scale1. Sweet Sorghum – micro-distillery

2. Woodlot gasification elec.

Multi-product or multi-crop

e.g. sweet sorghum

Economics Uncertain

Complex-Value Added

to Local Communities

*high risk

Local MarketsSocial Issues Crop not well characterised

Single Bioenergy Product

e.g. multi-species woodlot

Value Added to Local

Communities*high risk

Complex food-fuel-cash-crop interactions

SOURCE: Woods, J. Foucs 14: IFPRI, 2006

Soybean equivalent exports to EU (2006-2007)

Soybean hectares/exports to EU by use (2006-2007)

Jatropha plantation and processing in Tanzania

Jatropha processing, by-products, filtering, end-use

Ethanol for cooking stoves

Timing for Completion of analyses/studies

Regional Assessments• April: SADC region – sugar cane• June: Bioenergy best practice, S-S Tech Transfer• Aug: Food-feed-fuel: soy - MERCOSUR/Uruguay

Local or sub-regional case studies• Oct: Tanzania – land use impacts• Nov: Mozambique– agric. development, livelihoods• Dec: Case study 3: HH-ethanol stoves, location TBD

Thanks for your attention!

www.sei.sewww.carensa.net

Equation for calculating GHG emissions E = eec + el + ep + etd + eu - esca– eccs - eccr – eee,

eec = emissions from the extraction or cultivation of raw materials;

el = annualised emissions from carbon stock changes caused by land use change;

ep = emissions from processing;

etd = emissions from transport and distribution;

eu = emissions from the fuel in use;

esca = emission savings from soil carbon accumulation via improved agricultural management;

eccs = emission savings from carbon capture and geological storage;

eccr = emission savings from carbon capture and replacement; and

eee = emission savings from excess electricity from cogeneration.