fragmentation: the future of the uk - owen james events€¦ · across the uk, the story is...
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Fragmentation:
The Future of the UK
A Meeting of Minds: Advisory Distributors
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Fragmentation in the UK
Local Elections
2016
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Intergenerational conflict?
Source: YouGov
29%
46%
60%
64%
71%
54%
40%
36%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
18-24
25-49
50-64
65+
Leave Remain
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Blue Walls and Brexit: The Precariat
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Uneven Recovery
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Total GDP, Quarterly Change After Pre-Recession Peak
80s recession
90s recession
Great Depression
Recent downturn
Source: ONS/Trajectory
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Fragmentation in the UK
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Inequality: Problem Solved?
34%
33%
34%
35%
34% 34%
33%
34%
32%
33%
32% 32%
31%
31%
32%
32%
33%
33%
34%
34%
35%
35%
36%
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 (p)
UK Gini Coefficient, 2003/04 to 2014/15
Source: Office for National Statistics; Nowcasting household income in the UK: Financial Year Ending 2015
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Across the UK, the story is different
Source: Parliamentary Briefing Paper; Regional and Local Economic Growth Forecasts
102.8 103 103 103.1
95.5 93.7 93.4 93.9
81.8
79.2 77.2
75.9
70.9 71.2 72.5
71.4
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2008 2010 2013 2014
Gross Value Added per head: Indices where UK = 100
England
Scotland
Northern Ireland
Wales
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London: A Nation Apart?
167.1 166.8 170.6
173.4
108.8 109.8 110.6 109.7
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
2008 2010 2013 2014
Gross Value Added per head: Indices where UK = 100
North East
North West
Yorkshire & Humber
East Midlands
West Midlands
East of England
London
South East
South West
Source: Parliamentary Briefing Paper; Regional and Local Economic Growth Statistics
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Internal Migration
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Age Driven Migration
-6000
-1000
4000
9000
14000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90+
Internal Migration moves into and out of London by age;
year ending June 2013
net inflow outflow
Source: ONS analysis of the age and sex of internal migrants into and out of London for the year ending June 2013
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London and the South
0.0% 0.5% 0.7%
2.1%
3.8%
7.4%
0.0% 0.0%
-0.7% -0.3%
0.8%
4.1%
0.0%
-0.8% -1.2%
-1.5%
-0.5%
2.1%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in employee levels for northern and southern England regions; 2009-
2014
Southern regions
Southern regions
without London
Northern regions
Source: Office for National Statistics; Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES), 2015c
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The UK’s new class system
The Elite – 6%
Established Middle Class – 25%
Technical Middle Class – 6%
New Affluent Workers – 15%
Traditional Working Class – 14%
Emergent Service Workers – 19%
The Precariat – 15%
Source: Mike Skinner/BBC; What is your 21st Century Social Class
Clusters of Elites across the UK
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Fragmented Provision UK Tech Businesses
Source: Tech City/Nesta; Tech Nation 2016 Source: Ofcom; 2014 Infrastructure Report
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Life Expectancy
Source: Office For National Statistics
Life Expectancy at birth by local authority district;
England and Wales 2012-2014
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82.2
87.3
81.0
84.6
80.4
80.4 84.0
83.4
84.6
84.6
87.9 85.9
82.9
82.9
84.0
80.9
80.9
79.9
81.7
80.3
82.7
81.4
79.6
80.4
79.1
Source: London Datastore; Ward Atlas
Lives on the Line
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Room in the Centre vs. The Hunt for Meaning
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The UK’s seen political shifts too…
27%
59%
15%
25%
46%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Left (1-4) Centre (5-6) Right (7-10)
Political identification, on a 10 point scale
2000 2014
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European Fragmentation European Population Change 2001-2011
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Big Data and Fragmentation
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Continued Fragmentation
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Implications
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