fourth quarter and year-end 2005 high-speed access report
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Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2005 High-Speed Access Report. Brought To you as an Industry Service Every Quarter. BY. Information Gatekeepers, Inc. www.igigroup.com. AND. B & C Consulting Services. With This Year-End Report We Are Introducing Two Innovations:. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2005 High-Speed Access Report
Brought To you as an Industry Service Every Quarter
BY
Information Gatekeepers, Inc
AND
B & C Consulting Services
www.igigroup.com
With This Year-End Report We Are Introducing Two Innovations:
• We Brought The Report To You In Segments, Rather Than Waiting For All
Carriers To Report Their Quarterly Results. This Allowed Us To Bring You More Timely
Data, While Still Giving You The Big Picture! The First Segment Provided the Major Telcos
Results. This Segment Adds the Cable Results for the Entire Picture.
• We Are Formatting This Report As A PowerPoint Presentation. This Will Allow The Reader To More Quickly
Grasp The Important Points. And It May Be More Interesting!
We Invite Your Comments On These Changes To [email protected]
H-S Access Report
Year-End 2005
Final Segment
H-S Growth Going Strong All Year!
Verizon Makes IGI Analyst Look Good with Record Quarter!
Cable Results Continue to be very Flat.
Major 2005 High-Speed Access News
DSL exceeds 43% of total H-S Accesses, up from 34% at end of 2002 !
Penetration of h-s accesses reaches 44%, up from 19% at end of 2002 (Households)
H-S Accesses exceed 45,000,000 up from 20,000,000 at end of 2002
Verizon sets quarter record by gaining over 600,000.This is more than 100,000 over previous record!
IGI Forecasts Telco DSL to surpass Cable in 2006!
Major Cable Companies - CMs Added2004 2004 2005 2005 Total 2005 2005 20054Q Total 1Q 2Q 1st H 05 3Q 4Q Total
Charter 100,000 2,011,500 94,000 43,800 2,149,300 98,400Comcast 437,000 6,977,200 414,000 297,000 7,688,200 437,000Rodgers 57,000 951,400 51,600 33,400 1,036,400 53,300Cox 125,000 2,548,549 177,000 150,000 2,875,549 150,000Time Warner197,000 4,009,000 209,000 201,000 4,419,000 234,000Totals 916,000 16,497,649945,600 725,200 18,168,449972,700
Major Telcos - DSLs added2004 2004 2005 2005 Total 2005 2005 20054Q Total 1Q 2Q 1st H 05 3Q 4Q Total
BellSouth 224,000 2,096,000 253,000 124,000 2,473,000 205,000 Bell Can. 91,000 1,857,000 91,000 92,000 2,040,000 106,000 Qwest 110,000 1,065,000 85,000 68,000 1,218,000 150,000 SBC 425,000 5,104,000 504,000 360,000 5,968,000 528,000 Verizon 306,000 3,559,000 385,000 278,000 4,222,000 389,000 Totals 1,156,000 13,681,0001,318,000 922,000 15,921,0001,378,000
Total 2,072,000 30,178,6492,263,600 1,647,200 34,089,4492,350,700CM+xDSL
204000 2,882,000
425,000 6,921,000613,000 5,224,000
Here’s BellSouth with one of their best quarters!
AT&T (SBC) had another good Quarter!
Verizon broke all records!!
All-in-all it was a great quarter and a great year for the RBOCs!!!Especially Verizon!!!
61,000 2,207,000
Bell Canada is somewhat lower than previous.
Partial Results Major Telcos Only
Major Cable Companies - CMs Added2004 2004 2005 2005 Total 2005 2005 20054Q Total 1Q 2Q 1st H 05 3Q 4Q Total
Charter 100,000 2,011,500 94,000 43,800 2,149,300 98,400 2,247,700Comcast 437,000 6,977,200 414,000 297,000 7,688,200 437,000 8,125,200Rodgers 57,000 951,400 51,600 33,400 1,036,400 53,300 62,200 1,151,900Cox 125,000 2,548,549 177,000 150,000 2,875,549 150,000 3,025,549Time Warner 197,000 4,009,000 209,000 201,000 4,419,000 234,000 265,000 4,918,000Totals 916,000 16,497,649 945,600 725,200 18,168,449 972,700 327,200 19,468,349
Major Telcos - DSLs added2004 2004 2005 2005 Total 2005 2005 20054Q Total 1Q 2Q 1st H 05 3Q 4Q Total
BellSouth 224,000 2,096,000 253,000 124,000 2,473,000 205,000 204,000 2,882,000Bell Can. 91,000 1,857,000 91,000 92,000 2,040,000 106,000 61,000 2,207,000Qwest 110,000 1,065,000 85,000 68,000 1,218,000 150,000 1,368,000SBC 425,000 5,104,000 504,000 360,000 5,968,000 528,000 425,000 6,921,000Verizon 306,000 3,559,000 385,000 278,000 4,222,000 389,000 613,000 5,224,000Totals 1,156,000 13,681,000 1,318,000 922,000 15,921,000 1,378,000 1,303,000 18,602,000
Total 2,072,000 30,178,649 2,263,600 1,647,200 34,089,449 2,350,700 1,630,200 38,070,349
Major Cable Companies - CMs Added
2004 2005 2005 Total 2005 2005 2005
Total 1Q 2Q 1st H 05 3Q 4Q Total
Charter 2,011,500 94,000 43,800 2,149,300 98,400 91,000 2,338,700 Comcast 6,977,200 414,000 297,000 7,688,200 437,000 378,000 8,503,200 Rodgers 951,400 51,600 33,400 1,036,400 53,300 62,200 1,151,900 Cox 2,548,549 177,000 150,000 2,875,549 150,000 150,000 3,175,549 Time Warner 4,009,000 209,000 201,000 4,419,000 234,000 265,000 4,918,000
Totals 16,497,649 945,600 725,200 18,168,449 972,700 946,200 20,087,349 Cox 4Q05 estimated Major Telcos - DSLs added
2004 2005 2005 Total 2005 2005 2005
Total 1Q 2Q 1st H 05 3Q 4Q Total BellSouth 2,096,000 253,000 124,000 2,473,000 205,000 204,000 2,882,000
Bell Can. 1,857,000 91,000 92,000 2,040,000 106,000 61,000 2,207,000 Qwest 1,065,000 85,000 68,000 1,218,000 150,000 140,000 1,508,000 SBC 5,104,000 504,000 360,000 5,968,000 528,000 425,000 6,921,000 Verizon 3,559,000 385,000 278,000 4,222,000 389,000 613,000 5,224,000
Totals 13,681,000 1,318,000 922,000 15,921,000 1,378,000 1,443,000 18,742,000 Total 30,178,649 2,263,600 1,647,200 34,089,449 2,350,700 2,389,200 38,829,349
CM+xDSL Mjr. Car.
Final Results
4th Qtr. 2004 Actual vs Forecast of H-S Lines
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL Lines New IGI Forecast
Cable Modems New IGI Forecast
Actual xDSL Lines
Actual CM Lines
1st Qtr. 2005 Actual vs Forecast of H-S Lines
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL Lines New IGI Forecast
Cable Modems New IGI Forecast
Actual xDSL Lines
Actual CM Lines
2nd Qtr. 2005 Actual vs Forecast of H-S Lines
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL Lines New IGI Forecast
Cable Modems New IGI Forecast
Actual xDSL Lines
Actual CM Lines
3rd Qtr. 2005 Actual vs Forecast of H-S Lines
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL Lines New IGI Forecast
Cable Modems New IGI Forecast
Actual xDSL Lines
Actual CM Lines
4th Qtr. 2005 Actual vs Forecast of H-S Lines
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL Lines New IGI Forecast
Cable Modems New IGI Forecast
Actual xDSL Lines
Actual CM Lines
Telcos are gaining on the
forecast, and are going to catch
cable!
Cable continues to fall further behind
our forecast:
The Gap is narrowing!!
SBC Has Been the Telco Leader in H-S Adds
Beating All Telcos and in the Last Few Quarters Also All
Cable Companies!
3rd Qtr. 2005 SBC xDSL Lines Added (and Trendline)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QQuarters
xDSL Lines Added
2003 2004 2005
SBC- AT&T H-S Adds
4rd Qtr. 2005 SBC xDSL Lines Added (and Trendline)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QQuarters
xDSL Lines Added
2003 2004 2005
SBC Is Averaging Over 450,000 H-S Adds!
This Quarter, Things Changed!
Verizon Added More H-S Lines Than Any Company Ever!
Almost 100,000 More!!
WHY? FIOS – Verizon’s Brand Of FTTP. It Is Rolling Now, And Verizon Is Setting H-S Records!!
4th Qtr. 2005 Verizon xDSL Lines Added (and Trendline)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QQuarters
2003 2004 2005
Verizon Has Been Averaging about 350,000 H-S Adds
4th Qtr. 2005 Verizon xDSL Lines Added (and Trendline)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QQuarters
2003 2004 2005
4th Q 2005 – 613,000 H-S Adds!!
4th Qtr 2005 Major Providers - Cable Modems Vs. xDSL
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Added H-S Lines per Quarter
RBOCs' xDSL Additions
2004 20052003
And Here’s the Trend Line – Not
Bad!
DSL Additions for Major Telcos
4th Qtr 2005 Major Providers - Cable Modems Vs. xDSL
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Added H-S Lines per Quarter
RBOCs' xDSL Additions
Linear (RBOCs' xDSL Additions)
2004 20052003
4th Qtr 2005 Major Providers - Cable Modems Vs. xDSL
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Added H-S Lines per Quarter
RBOCs' xDSL Additions
Major Cable Cos' CMs Additions
Linear (RBOCs' xDSL Additions)
2004 20052003
This adds the results for the
major cable companies - a very different
story!
Here is the Cable trend line – it couldn’t be
flatter!
4th Qtr 2005 Major Providers - Cable Modems Vs. xDSL
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Added H-S Lines per Quarter
RBOCs' xDSL Additions
Major Cable Cos' CMs Additions
Linear (Major Cable Cos' CMs Additions)
Linear (RBOCs' xDSL Additions)
2004 20052003
4th Qtr. 2005 Actual vs Forecast of H-S Lines
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL Lines New IGI Forecast
Cable Modems New IGIForecastTotal HS Lines NewIGI ForecastActual HS Lines
Actual xDSL Lines
Actual CM Lines
Linear (Actual HS Lines)
Linear (Actual CM Lines)
Linear (Actual xDSL Lines)
Final Results Compared to Forecasts
Forecasts
Actuals
Cable – Below Forecast
Telco – Just Above Forecast
Total Below Forecast, but Above Linear Projection!
IGI Analysts Have Predicted That Telcos Would Gain Parity with Cable Companies
by the End of 2006.
See Our Report “The Market After the Mergers – The Telecom Economy Today,” for Details,
This Latest Result with Verizon Gaining Over 600,000 H-S Lines, Gives New Credence to Our
Forecast.
As AT&T Starts Implementing Their Project Lightspeed This Trend Will Accelerate,
especially if they implement in their new acquisition – BellSouth!
4th Qtr. 2005 Actual vs Forecast of H-S Lines
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
xDSL Lines New IGI Forecast
Cable Modems New IGI Forecast
Actual xDSL Lines
Actual CM Lines
Note That Cable Led By Two-to-One In 2003!
We predict that the Telco's will gain parity with cable this year!
PARITY!!
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Our Latest Reports, “The Next Generation Network – Will the RBOCs Get Googled Up?”
and “The Market After the Mergers – The Telecom Market Today,” Are Available on this
Site.