four disruptive trends for the next decade
TRANSCRIPT
“Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade”
Briefing Organized by the Australia Post
Canberra, Australia
August 11, 2015
Dr. Larry Smarr
Director, California Institute for Telecommunications and Information Technology
Harry E. Gruber Professor,
Dept. of Computer Science and Engineering
Jacobs School of Engineering, UCSD
http://lsmarr.calit2.net
If You Are Planning On a Ten Year HorizonIt Helps to See What Unexpected Change Can Happen In a Decade…
One Decade
www.benphoster.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Facebook-User-Growth-Chart.png
From One Million to One Billion UsersIn Less Than 8 Years!
www.thesocialnetwork-movie.com
Australia’s Citizens Now Depend on IT Companies That Were Born Only Ten Years Ago
www.socialmedianews.com.au/social-media-statistics-australia-june-2015/
50% of Australian Population
The Scale of the Web Today:“You Know What’s Cool?-a Billion” *
• Facebook– 1.5 Billion Active Users
• YouTube– 4 Billion Video Views Each Day
• Google– Over One Billion Searches Every Day
• Apple– 25 Billion Apps Downloaded Per Year
• Smartphones– 2 Billion Users
* From the Movie The Social Network (2010)
The Global Planetary ComputerPowers These Disruptions
The Computing Power to Make a Single Google SearchIs More Than Was Used In Space & On Earth
For the 11 Year, 17 Flight Apollo Program!
http://insidesearch.blogspot.com/2012/08/the-power-of-apollo-missions-in-single.html
Four Disruptive Trends for the Next Decade
• Distributed Software Systems are Driving Disintermediation
• Networked Virtual Reality
• Climate Change and Adaptive Infrastructure
• Brain-Inspired Computing
Airbnb’s Market Capis Over Twice That of Hyatt
The company was launched in 2008, and has a listing of around 1.4 million various houses, apartments, rooms, and exotic locations to rent. Since then, more than 35 million travellers have availed its service. The company’s operations span around 34,000 cities
Over Fifty Years Ago, Asimov Described a World of Remote Viewing
A policeman from Earth, where the population all lives underground in close quarters, is called in to investigate a murder on a distant world. This world is populated by very few humans, rarely if ever, coming into physical proximity of each other. Instead the people "View" each other with trimensional “holographic” images.
1956
Caterpillar / NCSA: Distributed Virtual Reality for Global-Scale Collaborative Prototyping
Real Time Linked Virtual Reality and Audio-Video Between NCSA, Peoria, Houston, and Germany
www.sv.vt.edu/future/vt-cave/apps/CatDistVR/DVR.html
1996
Collaboration Between EVL’s CAVE2 and Calit2’s VROOM Over 10Gb Wavelength
EVL
Calit2
Source: NTT Sponsored ON*VECTOR Workshop at Calit2 March 6, 2013
Next Step: Use AARnet/PRP to Set Up Planetary-Scale Shared Virtual Worlds
Digital Arena, UTS Sydney
CAVE2, Monash U, Melbourne
CAVE2, EVL, Chicago
One Year Later…
"We're working on VR because I think it's the next major
computing and communication platform after phones,“
-Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEOJuly 1, 2015
Rapid Increase in the Greenhouse Gas CO2
Since Industrial Era Began
Little Ice Age
Medieval Warm Period
388 ppm in 2010
June 2015CO2 402.8
Atmospheric CO2 Levels for Last 800,000 Yearsand Several Projections for the 21st Century
Source: U.S. Global Change Research
Program Report (2009)
2100 No Emission Controls--MIT Study
2100 Shell Blueprints Scenario
2100 Post-Copenhagen Agreements-MIT Model
Graph from: www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/download-the-report
Human Induced Sea Level Rise Will Continue for Centuries
Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, Allison, et al. (2009)Meters of Sea Level
Rise
5
3
10.2 Meter Rise
1 Meter will Submerge Over 2 Million sq. km of Land Where ~150 Million People Live, Mostly in Asia
If Greenland Melts, Sea Level Rises 6 metersIf Antarctica Melts, Sea Level Rises 60 meters Further
66Future PotentialSea Level Rise
If Greenland and Antarctica Melt
6
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html
The Disruptive Transition to Intelligent, Secure, Low Carbon, and Climate Adaptive Infrastructure
• The First Wave: – Infrastructure Will Gradually Become “Intelligent”
• The Second Wave: – From High to Low Carbon Emissions
• The Third Wave: – Climate Change is Now Occurring on a Time Scale
Commensurate With the Lifetime of Infrastructure
Buildings Are Becoming “Internets of Things”Key to Reducing 40% of U.S. CO2 Emissions
• Microsoft Collects 500M Data Points/Day from its Campus• Estimated to Become ~$200B/Year Industry by 2016
Source: Jim Young Realcomm
The Transition to Climate Adaptive Infrastructure: “Rising Currents” Exhibit at Museum of Modern Art
New York City's Harbor & Coastline -- How it Could be Restructured to Deal with
the Rising Sea Level
www.moma.org/explore/inside_out/category/rising-currents#description
New Ways to Occupy the Harbor With Adaptive “Soft” Infrastructures
Reverse Engineering of the Brain:Large Scale Microscopy of Mammal Brains Reveals Complex Connectivity
NeuronCell Bodies
Neuronal DendriticOverlap Region
Source: Rat Cerebellum Image, Mark Ellisman, UCSD
Using Nanotechnology to Read Out the Living BrainIs Accelerating Under the Federal Brain Initiative
www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/brain-initiative
The Exascale Power Conundrum:Why We Have to Turn to Brain-Inspired Computers
• Straightforward Extrapolation Results in a Real Time Human Brain Scale Simulation at 1–10 Exaflop/s with 4 PB of Memory
• A Digital Computer with this Performance Might be Available in 2022–2024 with a Power Consumption of >20–30 MW
• The Human Brain Runs on 20 W
• Our Brain is a Million Times More Power Efficient!
Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Realtime Simulation of Human Brain Possible Within the Next Ten Years With Exascale Supercomputer
Horst Simon, Deputy Director, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s
National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center
Fastest Supercomputer
Trend LineTianhe-2
Massive Public Private Partnership to Accelerate Brain-Inspired Computers
Jan/Feb 2014
Over $100 Million
Brain-Inspired ProcessorsAre The Start of the non-von Neumann Architecture Era
“On the drawing board are collections of 64, 256, 1024, and 4096 chips.
‘It’s only limited by money, not imagination,’ Modha says.”
Source: Dr. Dharmendra ModhaFounding Director, IBM Cognitive Computing Group
Contextual Robots With Neuromorphic Processors That Can See and Learn Will Tie Into the Planetary Computer
April 2014
A New Generation of Human Body SensorsWill Provide Continuous Readouts
Startup MC10 Working With UIUCUC San Diego
A Vision for Healthcare in the Coming Decades
Using this data, the planetary computer will be able to build a computational model of your body
and compare your sensor stream with millions of others. Besides providing early detection of internal changes
that could lead to disease, cloud-powered voice-recognition wellness coaches could provide
continual personalized support on lifestyle choices, potentially staving off disease
and making health care affordable for everyone.
ESSAYAn Evolution Toward a Programmable UniverseBy LARRY SMARRPublished: December 5, 2011
This Next Decade’s Computing TransitionWill Not Be Just About Technology
"Those disposed to dismiss an 'AI takeover' as science fiction may think again after reading this original and well-argued book." —Martin Rees, Past President, Royal Society
If our own extinction is a likely, or even
possible, outcome of our technological
development, shouldn't we proceed with great
caution? – Bill Joy
Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks. – Steven Hawking