foundations for a future orientation

Foundations for Strategic Foresight

Overview


“Acting while there is still a choice.”

–Bertrand de Jouvenal


“Planning from the future back to the present”

–Marsh, McAllum & Purcell


“Internal and external factors or trends that will impact the institution.”

–McFarland & Moore, 2003


Identifying Driving Forces

S

T

E

E

P

ocial

echnological

nvironmental

conomic

olitical


Scenario:

“The description of a possible future and the corresponding path to it.”

‒ Michel Godet


Get them to question their


Our Assumptions Encase us …

in the Past.

Assumption #1:

It’s impossible.

I’m too busy.


It’s irrelevant.

Assumption # 3:


Is it like a Hollywood movie?


Or more like an

interactive

video game?

“Has God put us here as contrarians, to

languish in discontent until the world ends?

Or has God placed us at the very heart and

soul of civilization to bring forth an entirely

different future, one that has never before

been possible, through the power of Christ's

Cross and Resurrection?”

–Christian Futurist, Jay Gary, 2003

“The constructive forces that can keep afloat in the turbulent waters of globalization are those whose gaze is fixed firmly on the future rather than the past; those forces, in other words, that regard opening themselves up to the future as a core element in their identity and not as a threat.”

–Athanasios N. Papathanasiou, 2004


“The only useful knowledge we have

relates to the future.”

– Bertrand de Jouvenel

The choices we make and the

attitudes with which we approach life

affect the path.


• Not predictions

• Qualitative research

• No more than 4

• Used to multiply options


A tool that projects cause and effect

relationships between a driving force and

the changes that could ripple out from it.


Participants discuss with their group the driving

forces listed in a “Driving Forces” handout.

After reading each description, they choose one

driving force that their group wants to explore.


Participants draw a circle in the middle of their

poster. The wheel begins with this circle where

they write their group's selected driving force.


Participants are

encouraged to think about

the consequences that

might flow from that

driving force. What will

likely be the effects of this

driving force?


Participants select one first-order effect for brainstorming. What is likely to happen as a result?

Continue this process until all three first-order effects have two second-order effects.


Repeat the procedure to get two third-order

effects for each second-order effect. When the

participants are done, their diagram should have

22 circles.


Participants are

encouraged to discuss

with their group any

conclusions or overall

lessons learned. They

should jot these down

so they can share

them with the larger

group.


• Organize and synthesize



• Uncover the layers of change




• Explore consequences





• Generate creative ideas






• Anticipate unforeseen consequences







• Test ideas before implementation







• Test ideas before implementation

• Create scenarios everyone can understand


“Would that they were wise, that they

understood this, that they would discern their

future!” – Deuteronomy 32:29


For more information, please contact . . .

Dr. Greg Waddell

Email: [email protected]

Blog: http://www.LeadStrategic.com/

Twtter: @DrGregWaddell

FB: DrGregWaddell

Third

Order

Effects

How to Do a Futures Wheel

OTHER FORECASTING TOOLS

• Environmental scanning

• Scenario analysis

• Cross-impact matrices

• Delphic surveys

• Strategic Planning

• Modeling

• QUEST

• Simulation

• Brainstorming

• Historical analogy

Second

Order

Effects

First

Order

Effects

WAR

DISASTERS

COUPS

MEDICAL

DISCOVERIE

S

Include some

wild cards

Go 10,

20, or 30

years out

Dr. Gregory S. Waddell

[email protected]

www.SpiritOfOrganization.com

Use colored

markers to indicate

serious threats and

promising

opportunities

Adapted from Coates, J. (2004). How to do a futures study. Washington, DC: Joseph Coates Consulting Futurist, Inc.


Works Cited Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter

(Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM (Vol. 1,). Queensland,

Australia: Foresight International.

de Jouvenel, B. (1972). “On the nature of the future.” In A. Toffler (Ed.), The Futurists

(pp. 277-83). NY: Random House.

Marsh, N., McAllum, M., & Purcell, D. (2002). “Why Strategic Foresight?” In The

Power of Standing in the Future. Victoria, Australia: Crown Content.

McFarland, D., & Moore, J. (2003). Stakeholder's Conference on Strategic Planning.

Arkansas State University. Accessed October 16, 2005 from

http://asunews.astate.edu/Oct%2020%202003%20Stakeholders%20Conf.htm

Michel Godet Cited in Dahle, K. (2003). “55 Key Works: A Guide to Futures

Literature.” In R. A. Slaughter (Ed.), Knowledge Base of Futures Studies CD-ROM

(Vol. 1,). Queensland, Australia: Foresight International.

Papathanasiou, A. N. (2004). “Anchored in the future, Globalization and church

consciousness: An orthodox perspective.” The Ecumenical Review, 56(2), 226-233.

foundations for a future orientation

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order effects

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